Sports picks for Thursday, January 8, 2026

TALE OF THE TAPE Minnesota Cleveland Record 24-13 ← 21-17 Net Rating +6.2 ← +2.5 eFG% 57.5% ← 53.9% Pace 102.0 → 104.1 Key Injuries Healthy Strus/Wade (OUT) Gary's Take The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and it’s all coming from a defensive intensity that Rudy Gobert sparked a week ago. Since then, the Wolves have ripped off three straight double-digit wins, including a total dismantling of Miami. The shift to starting Donte DiVincenzo has unlocked a new level of spacing for Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, and frankly, I don't see how an undersized Cleveland backcourt keeps Edwards from getting to his spots. Edwards is averaging nearly 30 a night, and with Mike Conley now steadying the second unit, Minnesota’s bench firepower with Naz Reid is a massive advantage over a depleted Cavs reserve unit. Cleveland gets Donovan Mitchell back tonight, which obviously raises their ceiling, but the supporting cast is where this breaks down. Missing both Max Strus and Dean Wade is a quiet disaster for the Cavs' spacing and wing defense. Without those two, Rudy Gobert can essentially camp in the lane and dare Mitchell or Darius Garland to challenge him at the rim. While Cleveland ranks 3rd in the league in three-pointers made, they’re running into a Minnesota defense that ranks 6th in limiting opponent threes. The market is giving us a short number here because of Mitchell’s return, but the situational data is screaming Minnesota. The Wolves are 13-6 at home and have been resting in Minneapolis since Tuesday, while Cleveland is just 8-8 on the road and a dismal 6-10 against the spread in away games. In a matchup of elite defenses, I’m taking the team with the superior health, the home-court edge, and the physical advantage on the wings. Minnesota covers the short number at Target Center.

TALE OF THE TAPE Dallas Mavericks Utah Jazz Record 14-23 ← 12-24 Off Rating 109.7 111.9 → Def Rating 113.4 ← 127.0 Net Rating -4.1 ← -5.8 Key Injuries Irving (OUT) Kessler (OUT) Gary's Take The schedule makers did Utah no favors here. Coming off a grueling overtime loss to Oklahoma City last night, the Jazz have to turn around on zero days of rest to face a rested Mavericks squad. Utah is a dismal 1-4 against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs this season, and the fatigue factor in the Salt Lake City altitude usually hits the home team just as hard when they are gassed. While Utah won the first meeting in December, that was with a healthier roster; tonight they look like a team running on fumes. The biggest mismatch on the floor tonight is the Dallas frontcourt against a Utah defense that has completely cratered. Since Walker Kessler went down with a shoulder injury, the Jazz have plummeted to the bottom of the league in defensive rating, allowing over 127 points per game. Anthony Davis and Daniel Gafford are going to live at the rim tonight. Davis is coming off a 19-point, 16-rebound masterclass against Sacramento, and without a legitimate rim protector like Kessler to stop him, he should have his way with Jusuf Nurkic and Kyle Filipowski in the paint. Don't forget the Cooper Flagg factor. The rookie sensation already proved he can torch this Jazz defense when he dropped a career-high 42 points on them back in December. While Utah has their own rookie spark in Ace Bailey, he is currently on a minutes restriction and won't be able to provide the same impact over four quarters. Dallas has found a defensive identity in their last two wins, holding opponents to roughly 101 points per game. Against a tired Jazz team that struggles to stop anyone, the Mavericks are in a prime position to pull away late and cover this number.

TALE OF THE TAPE San Diego Pepperdine Record 6-10 ← 5-12 Off Rating 105.8 ← 100.3 Def Rating 109.5 → 108.0 Net Rating -1.6 ← -7.7 Key Injuries Goodwin (Q) None Gary's Take This matchup features two teams desperate to climb out of the WCC basement, but the statistical profile suggests San Diego has a much clearer path to victory tonight. The Toreros play at the 21st fastest pace in the country, and while that can lead to defensive lapses, it’s a nightmare for a Pepperdine team that struggles significantly with ball security. The Waves rank 300th in turnover percentage, and I see Ty-Laur Johnson—who leads the WCC in steals—absolutely feasting on those miscues to ignite the San Diego transition game. Ty-Laur Johnson has been playing like an All-Conference guard lately, dropping 21 or more points in three of his last four games, including a near-upset of Gonzaga. Pepperdine simply doesn't have a perimeter defender with the lateral quickness to keep him out of the paint. While the Waves have an edge in offensive rebounding with Yonatan Levy and Danilo Dozic, San Diego’s ability to force turnovers and get to the free-throw line (where they rank 6th nationally at 79.1%) provides a much more stable floor for scoring. Pepperdine has shown some life recently, but their 1-5 road record and 0-4 conference start are hard to ignore. The market is giving them a bit too much credit for past head-to-head success in this building, but this is a revamped San Diego roster playing in a newly energized environment. I expect the Toreros to pull away in the second half as the cumulative effect of their defensive pressure wears down the Pepperdine backcourt. Lay the points with the home team.

TALE OF THE TAPE Pacific Portland Record 11-6 ← 7-10 Off Rating 111.9 ← 101.4 Def Rating 100.2 ← 114.8 Net Rating +11.7 ← -13.4 Key Injuries None Parker/George (OUT) Gary's Take The market is giving way too much credit to the Portland Pilots' home-court advantage and Pacific's recent road struggles, while seemingly ignoring the massive injury crisis in Portland. The Pilots are currently missing two of their most vital components: Riley Parker (13.4 PPG, 40% 3PT) and Timo George (12.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG). When you lose nearly 26 points and your best interior rebounder against a Dave Smart-coached defense, you are in for a long night. Smart is a defensive mastermind who has already transformed Pacific into the 55th-ranked scoring defense in the nation. Portland's high-tempo, pass-heavy offense (24th in assists) is a fun watch, but it relies on having multiple threats to space the floor. With Parker out, the burden falls almost entirely on freshman Joel Foxwell. While Foxwell is a talent, Pacific’s senior-laden backcourt of Jaden Clayton and TJ Wainwright will harass him for 40 minutes. Furthermore, the Tigers possess a +9.3 rebounding margin, which ranks 26th nationally. Without Timo George to anchor the Pilots' glass, Isaac Jack and Elias Ralph should feast on second-chance opportunities. Pacific has admittedly struggled on the road (2-6), but this is the ultimate "get right" spot. They are coming off a dominant performance against Oregon State and have their full rotation available. Portland is 0-4 in conference play for a reason—they simply don't have the bodies to compete with the top half of the WCC right now. I expect Pacific to dominate the paint, limit Foxwell’s efficiency, and finally break their road curse with a comfortable win. Take the Tigers and the short number before the market realizes how thin this Portland roster actually is.

TALE OF THE TAPE Oregon Ohio State Record 8-7 10-4 KenPom Rank 78 → 39 Off Rating 110.2 → 116.5 Def Rating 101.4 ← 102.1 Key Injuries Shelstad (GTD) Noel (OUT) Gary's Take This matchup is a classic case of efficiency metrics meeting reality in a hostile environment. While the Ohio State Buckeyes look like the superior team on a spreadsheet, the situational factors for this cross-country trip are working heavily against them. The Buckeyes are making their first-ever Big Ten trip to Eugene, and they are doing it with a thinned-out rotation. The loss of Brandon Noel (OUT) is the silent killer here; he was the Buckeyes' primary interior defender and 6th man. Without him, a team that already ranks 306th nationally in bench minutes is going to struggle to maintain intensity in the late-night 10:30 PM ET body-clock window. Oregon's Nate Bittle is the ultimate matchup nightmare for Jake Diebler's squad. Bittle is a 7-footer who can stretch the floor, and his recent form—averaging over 20 points in his last four games—suggests he's ready to exploit an Ohio State frontcourt that is missing its most versatile defender. Even if Jackson Shelstad remains sidelined, the emergence of Wei Lin (23 points, 6 threes vs Rutgers) gives the Ducks a perimeter spark that can ignite the 'Deep in the Woods' crowd. Oregon is 7-1 at Matthew Knight Arena this season, and their strength of schedule (26th) suggests their record is a product of a brutal gauntlet rather than a lack of talent. Ohio State's Bruce Thornton is a senior star who will keep this close, but the Buckeyes' effective field goal percentage drops by a staggering 10% when they leave Columbus. Against a Dana Altman-coached team that is desperate for a Quad 1 win to stay on the bubble, I expect the Ducks' length and offensive rebounding (22nd nationally) to wear down the Buckeyes' short rotation. In a game that starts after 10 PM for the visitors, the Ducks have too many environmental and personnel advantages to ignore. I'm taking the Ducks to protect their home floor in a high-stakes conference battle.

TALE OF THE TAPE Loyola Marymount San Francisco Record 10-7 → 12-5 KenPom Rank 206 → 118 NET Ranking 185 → 105 Adj Def Eff 106.5 → 100.1 Key Injuries None Cook (Q) Gary's Take The market is giving a massive amount of credit to the home-court advantage at Gersten Pavilion, but the statistical reality suggests the San Francisco Dons are simply the superior team in this matchup. While Loyola Marymount lives and dies by the three-pointer behind Rodney Brown Jr. and Myron Amey Jr., they are running straight into a defensive buzzsaw. Chris Gerlufsen has coached this Dons squad to a top-50 national ranking in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 30.7% from deep. If you take away the long ball, the Lions' offense, which ranks 233rd in efficiency, has very few secondary answers. On the other side of the floor, David Fuchs is a matchup nightmare for a Lions frontcourt that has struggled with continuity. Fuchs has been a double-double machine in conference play, and with Veniamin Abosi emerging as a legitimate scoring threat off the bench, the Dons have multiple ways to exploit LMU's 106.5 adjusted defensive rating. I understand the Lions are desperate after a blowout loss to Gonzaga, but desperation doesn't fix a 100-spot gap in KenPom efficiency. San Francisco has won six straight in this series for a reason; their length and defensive discipline are a stylistic nightmare for Stan Johnson's perimeter-heavy system. I am ignoring the road-split narrative and taking the better team at near-even money. The Dons' ability to control the glass and run LMU off the three-point line will be the story tonight. Take the San Francisco Dons to win outright on the road.

TALE OF THE TAPE Ole Miss Miami Record 13-1 ← 12-2 SP+ Rating 28.1 ← 25.2 SP+ Offense 40.8 ← 36.5 SP+ Defense 17.5 15.2 → Key Injuries None None Gary's Take This Fiesta Bowl matchup is a classic case of the market overvaluing a blue-blood brand and coaching stability over raw efficiency metrics. While the narrative surrounding Lane Kiffin's departure to LSU is loud, the numbers tell a much quieter, more compelling story: Ole Miss is the better football team. Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings have the Rebels at No. 5 in the nation, a full five spots ahead of the Hurricanes. The most significant mismatch on the field isn't Miami's defensive front—it's the Ole Miss offense, which ranks No. 2 nationally in efficiency. I see Trinidad Chambliss being the absolute difference-maker tonight. Miami's defensive identity is built on a relentless pass rush led by Rueben Bain Jr., but that aggression becomes a liability against a quarterback with Chambliss's 'wizardry' in the pocket. We saw him neutralize a similarly elite Georgia front in the quarterfinals by extending plays and making off-platform throws. With star running back Kewan Lacy back at 100% health, the Rebels have the balanced attack necessary to keep Miami's high-havoc defense on its heels. Lacy's 23 touchdowns this season aren't a fluke; he's the closer this team needs in a four-quarter fight. The Hurricanes will certainly find success on the ground given the Rebels' poor rushing success rate allowed, and Mario Cristobal will undoubtedly try to turn this into a trench war. However, Ole Miss holds the ultimate trump card in the third phase of the game: the No. 1 ranked special teams unit in the country. In a College Football Playoff semifinal where every yard and every field goal is magnified, that hidden edge is massive. Pete Golding has this roster playing with a 'bunker mentality' that has already claimed Georgia as a victim. Getting +150 on a team with the higher-rated team and the more dynamic quarterback is a gift. Don't be surprised when they win and punch their ticket to the title game.