Daily archive

2026-01-09

The stored Gary board for Fri, Jan 9. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

NBA

New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards

TALE OF THE TAPE Washington Wizards New Orleans Pelicans Record 10-26 ← 8-31 Net Rating -9.3 → -7.1 eFG% 54.0% ← 53.1% Home/Road 6-12 ← 2-14 Recent Form (L5) 3-2 ← 0-5 Key Injuries Young, Whitmore (OUT) Jones, Murray (OUT) Gary's Take The market is giving far too much respect to a New Orleans Pelicans team that has forgotten how to win. The Pelicans are currently mired in a nine-game losing streak and have been arguably the worst road team in the NBA this season, posting a pathetic 2-14 record away from the Big Easy. While Zion Williamson remains a physical force, the supporting cast around him is crumbling. With Herbert Jones doubtful and Trey Murphy III nursing back spasms, the Pelicans lack the defensive wing depth and perimeter spacing required to exploit Washington's defensive lapses. Washington is a team in transition following the blockbuster Trae Young trade, but they are playing with a level of energy and cohesion that New Orleans simply cannot match right now. The Wizards have won three of their last five games, including impressive victories over Orlando and Milwaukee. The return of Khris Middleton tonight is the massive factor the spread is ignoring. Middleton provides a veteran floor general presence that this young Wizards core has lacked, and his ability to stabilize the offense in the fourth quarter will be the difference against a Pelicans team that has repeatedly collapsed late in games during this skid. Defensively, Alexandre Sarr is emerging as a legitimate rim protector, leading the league in combined steals and blocks. He has the length to at least bother Zion Williamson at the cup, and if the Wizards can force New Orleans into a jump-shooting contest, they win this game going away. Jordan Poole returning to D.C. adds a layer of variance, but his inefficient shooting (36.5% FG) is more likely to stall the Pelicans' rhythm than save it. In a battle of two teams at the bottom of the standings, I am backing the side that is actually showing signs of life. I am taking the Washington Wizards ML +120.

Washington Wizards ML+120

NBA

Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets

TALE OF THE TAPE Brooklyn Nets Los Angeles Clippers Record 11-23 13-23 ← Net Rating -5.6 -2.3 ← eFG% 54.8% 55.6% ← Pace 98.7 → 97.4 Key Injuries Porter Jr (PROB) Leonard (GTD) Gary's Take The market is giving the Los Angeles Clippers a lot of credit here, but I am looking at a team that has been a disaster away from home all season. A 4-14 road record is not something you ignore, especially when their primary engine, Kawhi Leonard, is a game-time decision with the same ankle injury that cost him ten games earlier this year. The Clippers have looked like a different team lately, but they are 2-8 this season when Leonard is out of the lineup. Even if he suits up, he was clearly limited in the fourth quarter against the Knicks, and the Clippers medical staff is historically cautious with his minutes. Brooklyn might be in a rebuilding phase, but they have been surprisingly competitive at the Barclays Center. Michael Porter Jr. has turned into a legitimate focal point, dropping 25 or more points in four straight games. He is exactly the kind of perimeter threat that can exploit a Clippers defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating. While the Nets have their own struggles at 5-14 at home, they have kept their last three losses within a five-point margin. They play hard, they are young, and they have the legs to outrun an aging Clippers roster that is missing key rotation pieces like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Derrick Jones Jr. I expect James Harden and Ivica Zubac to keep the Clippers in this game through interior scoring, but the lack of wing depth without a healthy Leonard is going to show. The Nets have the shooting variance with MPJ and the returning Cam Thomas to hang around until the final whistle. In a matchup between two teams with identical records and significant injury questions for the favorite, I will take the points with the home underdog. The Clippers have not proven they can cover spreads on the road with any consistency this season, and I am not betting on them to start tonight in a hostile environment. Brooklyn keeps this inside the number and might even pull off the outright upset if Leonard sits.

Brooklyn Nets +4.5-112

NCAAB

USC Trojans @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

TALE OF THE TAPE Minnesota Golden Gophers USC Trojans Record 10-5 ← 12-3 NET Ranking #62 → #48 KenPom Ranking #59 → #57 Home Record 9-0 ← N/A Road Record N/A → 2-2 Key Injuries Vaihola (OUT) Rice (OUT) Gary's Take I've seen some ugly road trips in my thirty years, but what's happening to Eric Musselman's squad right now is a certified tailspin. The Trojans are limping into Minneapolis for the final leg of a three-game Midwest swing, and the wheels haven't just come off—they've been left somewhere on the highway in East Lansing. After getting run out of the gym by Michigan and Michigan State, USC now has to deal with the most unique environment in the Big Ten: the elevated floor at Williams Arena. For a team that has Coughed up the rock 38 times in their last two games, playing on a stage where the benches are in a pit and the court is a literal pedestal is a recipe for a turnover disaster. Minnesota is the exact wrong matchup for a reeling team. Niko Medved has the Gophers playing at a glacial pace, ranking 341st in the country in tempo, which is the ultimate protection for their thin seven-man rotation. While USC wants to use their length and athleticism to create chaos, they won't find it here. Minnesota is the most disciplined team in the conference when it comes to ball security, averaging just ten turnovers a game. They aren't going to give USC the transition buckets they desperately need to offset their half-court scoring droughts. Without Rodney Rice, the Trojans' offense has looked completely lost, plummeting to a measly 51 points in their last outing. Then you have Cade Tyson. The kid is a flat-out pro, averaging nearly 22 points a night and shooting the lights out from deep. USC's perimeter defense has been porous on the road, and I expect Tyson to feast on the wings tonight. While I respect Musselman's ability to get his teams to the free-throw line, that's a high-variance way to live on the road in a building where the home team hasn't lost all season. The Gophers are playing with house money after upsetting Iowa, and 'The Barn' will be rocking. I'm laying the small number with the team that knows how to protect their home floor. Take Minnesota -3.5.

Minnesota Golden Gophers -3.5-118

NCAAF

Oregon Ducks @ Indiana Hoosiers

TALE OF THE TAPE Indiana Hoosiers Oregon Ducks Record 14-0 ← 13-1 Off Rating (FPI) #1 ← #4 Def Rating (FPI) #2 ← #10 Net Rating (FPI) +30.4 ← +25.3 Key Injuries Daley (OUT) Davison (OUT) Gary's Take Indiana is not just the best story in college football; they are the best team. The Hoosiers' performance in the Rose Bowl was a clinical demolition of Alabama, holding the Crimson Tide to a single field goal while Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza operated with surgical precision. Indiana leads the country in nearly every meaningful efficiency metric, and their defensive havoc rate is a nightmare for any offensive line. When these two teams met in October, Indiana sacked Dante Moore six times and held the Ducks to negative rushing yardage. That was when Oregon actually had a healthy backfield. Oregon enters this semifinal facing a personnel crisis that season-long stats simply cannot mask. With star freshman Jordon Davison out with a broken clavicle and three other primary backs lost to the transfer portal, the Ducks are down to a hobbled Noah Whittington and true freshmen. While Oregon gets a boost from the return of wideouts Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr., being one-dimensional against this Indiana defense is a recipe for disaster. The Hoosiers' front seven, led by Mikail Kamara, excels at creating pressure without blitzing, which will allow them to drop extra help into coverage to neutralize Oregon's returning vertical threats. Even with Indiana missing two of their own edge rushers in Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt, the overall structural integrity of their defense remains superior. Oregon's offensive line has struggled with twitchy interior rushers all year, and Indiana's ability to reset the line of scrimmage will force Dante Moore into the same hurried decisions that led to two interceptions in their first meeting. Dan Lanning is an elite motivator, but motivation cannot replace a missing run game against the #1 team in the nation. The market is giving far too much weight to the revenge narrative and not enough to the actual matchup on the field. Indiana's success rate on both sides of the ball is historically elite, and they have shown no signs of slowing down in the postseason. Fernando Mendoza is playing the best football of his career, and with Roman Hemby providing a balanced ground attack, Indiana should control the tempo and the clock. I expect the Hoosiers to win this comfortably and secure their spot in the national championship. Take the Indiana Hoosiers -3.5 -105.

Indiana Hoosiers -3.5-105

Player props

NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics

Neemias Queta

I’m looking at the paint in the Garden tonight, and I see Neemias Queta absolutely owning the glass. With Toronto’s defensive anchor Jakob Poeltl sidelined, the Raptors are essentially rolling out a red carpet for Queta to clean up everything that misses.

OVER 8.5 Rebounds-125

· L5 rebounds: 20, 13, 9, 5, 3
· Season avg: 8.2 RPG
· Career-high 20 rebounds in last game vs Denver

NBA · Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic

VJ Edgecombe

If you haven't been watching the tape on Edgecombe, you're missing out on a defensive clinic. The kid is a pure ball-hawk, recording 17 steals over his last five games, including a 5-steal performance just two days ago.

OVER 1.5 Steals-110

· L5 steals: 5, 2, 2, 4, 4
· L5 average: 3.4 steals/game
· Season avg: 1.5 steals/game

NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics

Collin Murray-Boyles

With Jakob Poeltl out of the picture, Collin Murray-Boyles has been thrust into the fire, and the rookie is responding by vacuuming up every loose ball in sight. He’s logged double-digit boards in two of his last five games, including a 15-rebound clinic just two days ago.

OVER 6.5 Rebounds-146

· L5 rebounds: 15, 7, 3, 9, 12
· Season avg: 4.6 RPG
· Last start: 15 rebounds

NBA · Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic

Paolo Banchero

When Franz Wagner is out, the Magic offense becomes the Paolo Banchero show, and he’s been putting on a clinic lately. He’s cleared this 23.5 line in four of his last five games, including a 30-point masterpiece just two days ago.

OVER 23.5 Points-120

· L5 points: 30, 14, 28, 31, 29
· L5 average: 26.4 PPG
· Season avg: 21.1 PPG

NBA · Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray

Listen, with the Big Fella out, Jamal Murray isn't just the primary scorer—he’s the entire engine of that Denver offense. I’m looking at his last four games without Jokic and the man is dishing out 11.5 assists a night, including a 17-dime masterpiece just the other day.

OVER 9.5 Assists-108

· L4 assists avg: 11.5
· Last game assists: 17
· Season avg: 7.5 APG

NBA · New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns

Miles McBride

Listen, when Josh Hart goes down, the Knicks don't just fill a gap, they unleash a spark plug. Miles McBride isn't just a bench warmer; he's a guy who can get hot from the perimeter in a heartbeat.

OVER 12.5 Points-106

· L5 points: 16, 17, 20, 11, 21
· Season avg: 12.7 PPG
· Minutes last game: 34

NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Listen, when you look at the injury report and see Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both crossed out for the Thunder, you don't need a PhD to know Jaren Jackson Jr. is going to have a field day.

OVER 20.5 Points-115

· Season avg: 18.5 PPG
· L5 scoring: 19, 21, 14, 25, 15
· OKC interior defense: Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both OUT

NBA · New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards

Jordan Poole

I'm looking at Jordan Poole returning to D.C. with a massive chip on his shoulder. Since joining the Pelicans, he's been thrust into a high-usage role, and coming off a 39-minute, 21-point performance against Atlanta, his confidence is peaking.

OVER 17.5 Points-122

· L5 points: 21, 0, 8, 16, 26
· Season avg: 16.1 PPG
· Last game minutes: 39

NBA · Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets

Michael Porter Jr.

Porter Jr. is playing like a man who knows his bags might be packed, and he’s making sure every scout in the league sees his value.

OVER 25.5 Points-112

· L5 points: 34, 27, 27, 27, 28
· Season avg: 26.1 PPG
· Last game: 34 points on 8/13 from three

NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies

Jalen Williams

We're looking at a complete shift in the Thunder's hierarchy tonight. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren both sidelined, OKC is missing nearly 50 points of nightly production, and Jalen Williams is the man holding the keys to the offense.

OVER 23.5 Points-122

· Season avg: 17.2 PPG
· Usage vacuum: SGA (30.1 PPG) and Chet Holmgren (18.2 PPG) both OUT
· Matchup: Career 20+ PPG vs Memphis

NBA · Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets

Onyeka Okongwu

You look at the Nuggets' injury report and it's a graveyard in the paint—no Jokic, no Valanciunas, nothing but air in the middle. Onyeka Okongwu is already a beast on the glass, and with Kristaps Porzingis on a strict 19-minute leash, Big O is going to be living in the restricted area all night.

OVER 7.5 Rebounds-135

· L5 rebounds: 12, 3, 9, 8, 14
· Season avg: 7.8 RPG
· Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas: OUT

NBA · New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks is playing with a massive chip on his shoulder right now, and with Jalen Green sidelined, he’s become the alpha dog on the wing for Phoenix. He’s been aggressive, hunting his shot and averaging over 21 points on the season.

OVER 19.5 Points-120

· L5 points: 21, 15, 22, 18, 20
· Season avg: 21.2 PPG
· Jalen Green (2nd leading scorer) is OUT

NBA · Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

Maxime Raynaud

Listen, when you lose a guy like Sabonis, you don't just replace that production with one guy, but Maxime Raynaud is doing his best impression. The kid has been a monster on the glass lately, clearing this 7.5 line in four of his last five games while logging heavy minutes.

OVER 7.5 Rebounds-129

· L5 rebounds: 9, 8, 5, 8, 12
· L5 minutes avg: 30.8
· Season avg: 6.4 RPG

NBA · Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Deni Avdija

Listen, Deni Avdija isn't just a role player anymore; he's the heartbeat of this Blazers offense with Grant and Henderson in the trainer's room. He just hung a career-high 41 on these same Rockets two nights ago, and Houston had absolutely no answer for his size and versatility on the perimeter.

OVER 26.5 Points-109

· L5 points: 41, 33, 29, 34, 17
· Season avg: 26.3 PPG
· Last game vs HOU: 41 points in 39 minutes

NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers

Luka Doncic

Luka is back in the friendly confines of Crypto.com Arena where he’s been a different beast, averaging nearly 36 points a night this season. The Bucks are dragging their legs into LA on the tail end of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and they don’t have a perimeter stopper who can stay in front of Luka when he’s hunting his shot. With Austin Reaves sidelined, the Lakers need every bit of Luka’s scoring gravity to keep pace, and he just dropped 38 on the Spurs in his last home game. Against a tired Milwaukee defense that's been middle-of-the-pack, I expect Doncic to live at the line and carve them up from the mid-range all night long.

OVER 34.5 Points-109

· L5 points: 38, 30, 36, 34, 30
· Season avg: 33.7 PPG
· Home avg: 35.8 PPG

NBA · Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets

John Collins

Since arriving in LA, Collins has seen his minutes skyrocket, logging 33 and 39 in his last two outings as the primary frontcourt partner for Zubac. When you're on the floor that much next to a guy like Zubac who draws all the attention in the paint, those 'garbage' rebounds start falling right into your lap.

OVER 5.5 Rebounds-130

· L5 rebounds: 10, 4, 2, 11, 5
· Season avg: 5.0 RPG
· Minutes last 2 games: 33, 39

NBA · Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

Jimmy Butler

Jimmy Butler in a Warriors jersey still feels weird, but his game hasn't changed—he smells blood in the water. The Kings are dead last in defensive rating over their last stretch and they have absolutely nobody who can stay in front of Jimmy on the perimeter.

OVER 20.5 Points-122

· L5 points: 21, 24, 15, 19, 21
· Season avg: 19.7 PPG
· Kings rank 27th in Defensive Rating

NBA · Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Tari Eason

With Alperen Sengun sidelined, Tari Eason has stepped into the starting lineup and is playing like a man possessed on the boards. He's not just filling a spot; he's dominating the paint, coming off a massive 13-rebound performance against this very Blazers team on Wednesday.

OVER 7.5 Rebounds-102

· L5 rebounds: 13, 8, 10, 9, 8
· Season avg: 6.1 RPG
· Last game vs POR: 13 rebounds

NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis just put all the trade talk to bed and publicly committed to Milwaukee, and usually, that kind of emotional weight lifting off a superstar leads to a monster performance on the court. The Lakers’ interior defense is a shell of its former self with Anthony Davis gone; Deandre Ayton is a talented big, but he simply doesn't have the physical nastiness required to stop the Greek Freak when he's barreling down the lane. Giannis has cleared this 31.5 mark in three of his last four games and is shooting a career-high 64.5% from the field this season. With the Bucks fighting to stay in the playoff hunt and coming off a tough loss last night, expect Giannis to be aggressive from the opening tip.

OVER 31.5 Points-106

· L5 points: 34, 37, 30, 33, 24
· Season avg: 29.5 PPG
· Cleared 31.5 in 3 of last 4 games

NBA · New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards

Bilal Coulibaly

Bilal Coulibaly is starting to turn a corner as a primary scoring threat for this Wizards team. He's cleared this 12.5 line in his last two games, putting up 18 and 14 points while showing much more aggression attacking the rim.

OVER 12.5 Points-121

· L5 points: 18, 14, 6, 11, 10
· Season avg: 10.5 PPG
· L2 avg: 16.0 PPG

Graded results

Games

L
Washington Wizards ML +120
NBA · 128-107
L
Brooklyn Nets +4.5 -112
NBA · 121-105
L
Minnesota Golden Gophers -3.5 -118
NCAAB · 70-69
W
Indiana Hoosiers -3.5 -105
NCAAF · 22-56

Props

L
Bilal Coulibaly · over
New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards · Actual 8
L
Collin Murray-Boyles · over
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics · Actual 2
L
Deni Avdija · over
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 20
W
Dillon Brooks · over
New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns · Actual 27
L
Giannis Antetokounmpo · over
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers · Actual 21
W
Jalen Williams · over
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 26
L
Jamal Murray · over
Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets · Actual 0
W
Jaren Jackson Jr. · over
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 23
L
Jimmy Butler · over
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors · Actual 15
L
John Collins · over
Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets · Actual 4
L
Jordan Poole · over
New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards · Actual 0
L
Luka Doncic · over
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers · Actual 24
L
Maxime Raynaud · over
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors · Actual 7
L
Michael Porter Jr. · over
Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets · Actual 18
W
Miles McBride · over
New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns · Actual 17
L
Neemias Queta · over
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics · Actual 6
L
Onyeka Okongwu · over
Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets · Actual 5
L
Paolo Banchero · over
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic · Actual 14
L
Tari Eason · over
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 3
W
VJ Edgecombe · over
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic · Actual 2