Sports picks for Friday, January 9, 2026

I’m looking at the paint in the Garden tonight, and I see Neemias Queta absolutely owning the glass. With Toronto’s defensive anchor Jakob Poeltl sidelined, the Raptors are essentially rolling out a red carpet for Queta to clean up everything that misses. He’s coming off a monster 20-rebound performance against Denver, and that wasn't a fluke—his energy and positioning have been elite lately. The Raptors are currently relying on a rookie to man the middle, and Queta’s veteran strength and wingspan are going to be a nightmare for them. If you think Toronto can keep him off the boards without their starting center, you’re betting against a guy who is currently playing with a massive chip on his shoulder. Expect Queta to feast on second-chance opportunities and defensive boards all night long.

If you haven't been watching the tape on Edgecombe, you're missing out on a defensive clinic. The kid is a pure ball-hawk, recording 17 steals over his last five games, including a 5-steal performance just two days ago. He’s playing massive minutes—averaging 40 a night over that stretch—and Orlando’s backcourt is currently depleted and prone to turnovers without their primary ball-handlers. When a guy is averaging over 3 steals a game lately and the books give you a line of 1.5, you don't ask questions, you just take the over. I expect him to disrupt the passing lanes all night against a Magic team that's still figuring out their rotation.

With Jakob Poeltl out of the picture, Collin Murray-Boyles has been thrust into the fire, and the rookie is responding by vacuuming up every loose ball in sight. He’s logged double-digit boards in two of his last five games, including a 15-rebound clinic just two days ago. Coach Rajakovic has been vocal about Murray-Boyles setting the tone defensively, which means his minutes are as safe as a vault. Boston plays at the slowest pace in the league, which usually limits possessions, but the absence of Poeltl means Murray-Boyles is the only legitimate rebounding threat Toronto has left. He’s going to be on the floor for 30+ minutes, and in that time, he’ll have plenty of chances to clear this modest line.

When Franz Wagner is out, the Magic offense becomes the Paolo Banchero show, and he’s been putting on a clinic lately. He’s cleared this 23.5 line in four of his last five games, including a 30-point masterpiece just two days ago. Philly’s interior defense is a major question mark with Joel Embiid banged up and potentially limited, and Banchero’s ability to draw fouls and get to the line is among the best in the league. He’s averaging over 26 points over his last five outings and should see all the usage he can handle tonight. Expect him to put the team on his back in a critical home game.

Listen, with the Big Fella out, Jamal Murray isn't just the primary scorer—he’s the entire engine of that Denver offense. I’m looking at his last four games without Jokic and the man is dishing out 11.5 assists a night, including a 17-dime masterpiece just the other day. Atlanta plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, which means more possessions, more transition opportunities, and more chances for Murray to find his shooters. The Hawks' defense is a revolving door, and while Dyson Daniels is a pesky defender, he can't stop the sheer volume of playmaking Murray is going to be forced into tonight. Take the over and don't look back.

Listen, when Josh Hart goes down, the Knicks don't just fill a gap, they unleash a spark plug. Miles McBride isn't just a bench warmer; he's a guy who can get hot from the perimeter in a heartbeat. He's stepped into the starting lineup and hasn't looked back, averaging 17 points over his last five outings. Tonight in Phoenix, with the Suns' defense focused on Brunson, McBride is going to find himself with plenty of open looks from deep. If you think he’s staying under 13 points while playing 35+ minutes, you’re not watching the same tape I am.

Listen, when you look at the injury report and see Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both crossed out for the Thunder, you don't need a PhD to know Jaren Jackson Jr. is going to have a field day. OKC is essentially walking into the FedExForum with a 'Help Wanted' sign in the paint. JJJ is already the focal point with Ja Morant sidelined, and tonight he's facing a small-ball lineup that has no prayer of bothering his shot at the rim. I see him being ultra-aggressive from the jump, drawing fouls and living at the charity stripe. If the Grizzlies want to protect their home floor, they’re going to feed the big man until OKC proves they can stop him—and looking at that roster tonight, they just don't have the bodies to do it.

I'm looking at Jordan Poole returning to D.C. with a massive chip on his shoulder. Since joining the Pelicans, he's been thrust into a high-usage role, and coming off a 39-minute, 21-point performance against Atlanta, his confidence is peaking. The Pelicans are desperate to snap a nine-game skid, and with the backcourt thin due to recent injuries, Poole is going to have the greenest of lights. He's a volume shooter who thrives in 'revenge' spots, and against a Wizards defense that ranks dead last in the league, he should feast. Expect him to hunt his shot early and often in a high-paced environment. If you think Poole isn't going to try and drop 25+ on his former squad, you haven't been following his career.

Porter Jr. is playing like a man who knows his bags might be packed, and he’s making sure every scout in the league sees his value. He’s cleared this 25.5 line in five straight games, including a 34-point outburst against the Knicks just two nights ago. With the Nets leaning into a slow, defensive style, they need his shot-making more than ever to stay competitive. The Clippers are missing half their rotation, and I don't see anyone on that second unit who can bother a 6'10" sniper with his release point. He’s the undisputed alpha in Brooklyn right now, and he’s going to keep firing until the trade call comes in.

We're looking at a complete shift in the Thunder's hierarchy tonight. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren both sidelined, OKC is missing nearly 50 points of nightly production, and Jalen Williams is the man holding the keys to the offense. 'J-Dub' has been the perfect secondary star all season, but tonight he moves into the undisputed number one role with a massive green light. He's going from a guy who picks his spots to the guy who has to create every shot, and I expect his volume to be through the roof. Memphis is missing their own defensive anchor in Zach Edey, meaning the lanes will be wide open for Williams to attack the rim and get to his mid-range spots. It's a big number, but the opportunity tonight is even bigger.

You look at the Nuggets' injury report and it's a graveyard in the paint—no Jokic, no Valanciunas, nothing but air in the middle. Onyeka Okongwu is already a beast on the glass, and with Kristaps Porzingis on a strict 19-minute leash, Big O is going to be living in the restricted area all night. He's cleared this 7.5 line in four of his last five games, including a monster 14-rebound performance against a much bigger frontcourt. Against a depleted Denver squad that's starting a rookie big man, Okongwu should feast on second-chance opportunities and defensive boards. This line feels about two boards too low.

Dillon Brooks is playing with a massive chip on his shoulder right now, and with Jalen Green sidelined, he’s become the alpha dog on the wing for Phoenix. He’s been aggressive, hunting his shot and averaging over 21 points on the season. In three of his last five games, he’s cleared this 19.5 line with ease because he knows the Suns need his scoring punch to keep pace with New York. The Knicks' defense is tough, but Brooks thrives in these physical, high-stakes matchups. Expect him to keep the foot on the gas tonight.

Listen, when you lose a guy like Sabonis, you don't just replace that production with one guy, but Maxime Raynaud is doing his best impression. The kid has been a monster on the glass lately, clearing this 7.5 line in four of his last five games while logging heavy minutes. Tonight he’s facing a Warriors frontcourt that isn't exactly known for their size, and with the Kings' season spiraling, they have no choice but to let the young big man eat. I see him parking himself in the paint and cleaning up everything that comes off the rim. If the Warriors think they can coast through the interior without Sabonis there, Raynaud is going to remind them otherwise.

Listen, Deni Avdija isn't just a role player anymore; he's the heartbeat of this Blazers offense with Grant and Henderson in the trainer's room. He just hung a career-high 41 on these same Rockets two nights ago, and Houston had absolutely no answer for his size and versatility on the perimeter. Over his last four games, the man is averaging nearly 35 points, playing heavy minutes, and taking all the big shots for a depleted roster. The Rockets are going to try to adjust, but when a guy is in a zone like this and the volume is guaranteed, you don't bet against the hot hand. Expect Deni to be the focal point again in what should be another high-possession affair in Portland.

Luka is back in the friendly confines of Crypto.com Arena where he’s been a different beast, averaging nearly 36 points a night this season. The Bucks are dragging their legs into LA on the tail end of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and they don’t have a perimeter stopper who can stay in front of Luka when he’s hunting his shot. With Austin Reaves sidelined, the Lakers need every bit of Luka’s scoring gravity to keep pace, and he just dropped 38 on the Spurs in his last home game. Against a tired Milwaukee defense that's been middle-of-the-pack, I expect Doncic to live at the line and carve them up from the mid-range all night long.

Since arriving in LA, Collins has seen his minutes skyrocket, logging 33 and 39 in his last two outings as the primary frontcourt partner for Zubac. When you're on the floor that much next to a guy like Zubac who draws all the attention in the paint, those 'garbage' rebounds start falling right into your lap. He’s already showing he can crash the glass in this system, grabbing 10 boards against a physical Knicks frontcourt recently. The Nets are a solid defensive unit, but they aren't world-beaters on the glass, and Collins is playing with the kind of energy you only see from a guy who’s happy to be out of a bad situation. 5.5 is a disrespectful line for a starting power forward playing nearly 40 minutes.

Jimmy Butler in a Warriors jersey still feels weird, but his game hasn't changed—he smells blood in the water. The Kings are dead last in defensive rating over their last stretch and they have absolutely nobody who can stay in front of Jimmy on the perimeter. He’s been efficient lately, averaging 20 points over his last five, and with the Warriors fighting for playoff positioning, Butler isn't going to let them slip up against a short-handed Sacramento squad. Expect him to live at the free-throw line and carve up that 27th-ranked defense all night long. He's hit this mark in three of his last five, and this matchup is arguably the easiest he's seen all month.

With Alperen Sengun sidelined, Tari Eason has stepped into the starting lineup and is playing like a man possessed on the boards. He's not just filling a spot; he's dominating the paint, coming off a massive 13-rebound performance against this very Blazers team on Wednesday. Portland is thin up front, and Eason’s motor is simply too high for their remaining rotation to keep him off the glass for 30-plus minutes. He's cleared this 7.5 line in four of his last five games, and the Rockets' coaching staff is clearly leaning on his energy to replace Sengun's production. I expect him to be a double-double threat once again tonight as Houston looks to avenge that heartbreaker.

Giannis just put all the trade talk to bed and publicly committed to Milwaukee, and usually, that kind of emotional weight lifting off a superstar leads to a monster performance on the court. The Lakers’ interior defense is a shell of its former self with Anthony Davis gone; Deandre Ayton is a talented big, but he simply doesn't have the physical nastiness required to stop the Greek Freak when he's barreling down the lane. Giannis has cleared this 31.5 mark in three of his last four games and is shooting a career-high 64.5% from the field this season. With the Bucks fighting to stay in the playoff hunt and coming off a tough loss last night, expect Giannis to be aggressive from the opening tip.

Bilal Coulibaly is starting to turn a corner as a primary scoring threat for this Wizards team. He's cleared this 12.5 line in his last two games, putting up 18 and 14 points while showing much more aggression attacking the rim. With the Wizards' roster in flux following the Trae Young trade and several key rotation players sidelined, Bilal's minutes and shot attempts are locked in. The Pelicans' defense has been a sieve during their losing streak, allowing over 122 points per game, which plays right into Bilal's hands. In a game with a massive 239.5 total, there will be plenty of transition opportunities for a young, athletic wing like Coulibaly. He's becoming the reliable secondary option Washington needs right now.