Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets
Spectrum Center
Charlotte Hornets ML+102
LLostFinal 97-96
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Charlotte Toronto Record 13-23 → 22-15 Off Rating 115.6 ← 114.0 Def Rating 117.3 → 111.8 Net Rating -1.7 → +2.1 Key Injuries Kalkbrenner (OUT) Poeltl (OUT)
Gary's Take Don't let the season records fool you into thinking this is a mismatch. The Charlotte Hornets are currently playing their best basketball of the season, having pivoted to a high-octane small-ball identity that has completely transformed their ceiling. While Toronto sits 4th in the East, they are walking into a Spectrum Center that has seen the Hornets dismantle the Thunder by 27 points just three days ago. That win wasn't a fluke; it was the result of a lineup featuring LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and rookie sensation Kon Knueppel that creates impossible spacing for traditional defenses.
The absence of Jakob Poeltl for Toronto is the critical lever tonight. While the Raptors have gone 4-1 recently by leaning into their own small-ball looks with Collin Murray-Boyles, they haven't faced a team that can exploit a lack of rim protection quite like Charlotte. The Hornets lead the league in rookie three-pointers and have nine rotation players shooting over 36% from deep. Without Poeltl to anchor the paint, Toronto's perimeter defenders will be forced to play on an island against Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges, both of whom are coming off dominant scoring performances.
History also favors the home dog here. Charlotte has won two of the three meetings this season, including a dominant 25-point victory in Toronto last month. They clearly understand how to disrupt the Raptors' offensive flow. While Brandon Ingram is playing at an All-Star level, I expect Charlotte's collective offensive depth and the home-court energy of a team surging toward a play-in spot to be the difference. I'm taking the plus money on the Hornets to win this outright in what should be a high-scoring track meet. Charlotte Hornets ML +102.
Injuries noted
Toronto Raptors: Chucky Hepburn (Out) — Hepburn is nearly averaging a double-double across 11 appearances with 12.8 points, 9.2 assists and 1.9 rebounds. He's also been sound defensively with 2.4 steals per contest.; Jakob Poeltl (Out) — Poeltl will miss his eighth game in a row Wednesday. The center is getting closer to a return, however, as he was cleared for contact work on Jan. 5. His next chance to play comes Friday against Boston.
Charlotte Hornets: Ryan Kalkbrenner (Out) — Kalkbrenner will miss his ninth consecutive contest due to a sprained left elbow and is without a clear timetable for a return. The rookie big man should be considered doubtful for Thursday's game against the Pacers until the Hornets provide an update on his status.; Mason Plumlee (Out) — Plumlee had missed four consecutive games with a strained right groin before going under the knife. The veteran center will be sidelined until at least mid-February. While he's sidelined, PJ Hall will likely step into the third-string center role behind Ryan Kalkbrenner (elbow) and Moussa Diabate.; Grant Williams (Out) — Williams is still rehabbing from right knee surgery he underwent in December 2024. The 27-year-old forward doesn't have a clear timeline for a return and should be considered week-to-week until the Hornets offer an update on his progress.; Moussa Diabate (Day-To-Day) — Diabate recently sat out two games due to the sprain, and the Hornets continue to keep an eye on his health for the first half of this back-to-back set. With Ryan Kalkbrenner (elbow) facing another absence, Diabate is slated to start Wednesday. Diabate has averaged 8.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 31.8 minutes per tilt across seven games as a starter this season, shooting 67.6 percent from the floor.; Brandon Miller (Day-To-Day) — It doesn't sound like the issue is severe enough to stop Miller from playing Wednesday. Over his last 13 appearances, the star forward has averaged 22.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks in 33.3 minutes per game.; Tidjane Salaun (Day-To-Day) — Salaun shed his probable tag to suit up in Monday's win over the Thunder, though he's listed as questionable for Wednesday's contest due to a sprained left ankle. If the second-year forward is unable to suit up, Josh Green and Liam McNeeley are candidates for a slight bump in minutes.
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- Board stored January 7, 2026 at 1:08 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Collin Murray-BoylesOVER 5.5 Rebounds Rebounds-115
WActual 15
I've been watching this kid Murray-Boyles, and with Jakob Poeltl sidelined, he's not just filling a spot—he's eating glass. He's cleared this 5.5 line in four of his last five games, including massive 12-rebound efforts against some tough frontcourts.
Charlotte is missing basically their entire center rotation with Williams, Plumlee, and Kalkbrenner all out, leaving a massive void in the paint. The Raptors are trusting the rookie with nearly 27 minutes a night lately, and he's responding by hunting every loose ball.
Against a depleted Hornets interior that's giving up boards in bunches, Murray-Boyles is going to feast on the offensive and defensive glass all night long.
Brandon MillerOVER 19.5 Points Points-123
LActual 0
Brandon Miller is playing like a man who wants that All-Star nod, and right now, nobody on the Hornets can stop him from getting his shots. He's been on an absolute tear, averaging over 26 points a game over his last five outings, which makes this 19.5 line look like a mistake.
Even with Toronto's length on the wings, Miller's confidence is sky-high after leading Charlotte to a massive upset over OKC. He's the primary engine of this offense, and with the Hornets on the front end of a back-to-back, they'll need him to carry the scoring load early and often.
I expect him to stay aggressive and cruise past this number before the fourth quarter even starts.
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