It's homecoming in Fort Worth, with an 11 a.m. kickoff under gray skies. TCU is laying 10.5 to a West Virginia team that has given up 41 or more in all four Big 12 games. On paper that looks like a mismatch, but the number says otherwise. The case for TCU is real. West Virginia has allowed 312 or more passing yards in every conference game and gets 0 to 2 sacks a week. Now CB Jason Chambers, S Da'Mare Williams and DL Corey McIntyre Jr. are all out. Jaden Craig, throwing to Ed Small and Kari Ashley, should have his best day against an FBS opponent. But TCU's offense has a ceiling. It has scored 17 or fewer in four of five FBS games. Some of that is bad luck, since TCU outgained BYU, UCF and Baylor. Some of it is built in. TCU ran for 33, 72 and 33 yards the last three games and allowed 4 sacks in each. Jeremy Payne is doubtful and Landon Walker is out, so the running game falls to Jon Denman and Joe Pitchford. Teams that can't run settle for field goals near the goal line, and covering 10.5 takes touchdowns. On the other side, West Virginia's ground game is the best offense TCU has seen. Every offense TCU has faced ranks 59th or worse in scoring. West Virginia has scored at least 24 in every game and run for 247 or more in five of six FBS games. Michael Hawkins Jr. does real damage as a runner but struggles to throw against good defenses. Rich Rodriguez's talk about staying out of third-and-long tells you the plan: grind it out. TCU will slow that down, but not to the 6 points Baylor managed. Ignore the homecoming angle, the travel and the turnover swings. The likeliest result is TCU winning by about a touchdown, with plenty of yards and too many field goals. The risk is that a thin West Virginia secondary hands Craig a career day. That keeps this a lean, but the points are the side.
It's homecoming in Fort Worth, with an 11 a.m. kickoff under gray skies. TCU is laying 10.5 to a West Virginia team that has given up 41 or more in all four Big 12 games. On paper that looks like a mismatch, but the number says otherwise.
The case for TCU is real. West Virginia has allowed 312 or more passing yards in every conference game and gets 0 to 2 sacks a week. Now CB Jason Chambers, S Da'Mare Williams and DL Corey McIntyre Jr. are all out. Jaden Craig, throwing to Ed Small and Kari Ashley, should have his best day against an FBS opponent.
But TCU's offense has a ceiling. It has scored 17 or fewer in four of five FBS games. Some of that is bad luck, since TCU outgained BYU, UCF and Baylor. Some of it is built in. TCU ran for 33, 72 and 33 yards the last three games and allowed 4 sacks in each. Jeremy Payne is doubtful and Landon Walker is out, so the running game falls to Jon Denman and Joe Pitchford. Teams that can't run settle for field goals near the goal line, and covering 10.5 takes touchdowns.
On the other side, West Virginia's ground game is the best offense TCU has seen. Every offense TCU has faced ranks 59th or worse in scoring. West Virginia has scored at least 24 in every game and run for 247 or more in five of six FBS games. Michael Hawkins Jr. does real damage as a runner but struggles to throw against good defenses. Rich Rodriguez's talk about staying out of third-and-long tells you the plan: grind it out. TCU will slow that down, but not to the 6 points Baylor managed.
Ignore the homecoming angle, the travel and the turnover swings. The likeliest result is TCU winning by about a touchdown, with plenty of yards and too many field goals. The risk is that a thin West Virginia secondary hands Craig a career day. That keeps this a lean, but the points are the side.
West Virginia +10.5