No. 20 Northwestern flies about 1,780 miles to Autzen for a 12:30 Pacific kickoff under gray, 45-degree skies. It walks into an Oregon program that fired its offensive coordinator six days ago. Chip Kelly's return to Eugene will get the headlines, but Oregon's offense is the real story. Since Dante Moore went down for the year, Oregon has scored 15, 17 and 10. That's 14 points a game, 8 of 44 on third down, 3 touchdowns in 10 red-zone trips and 10 giveaways. The margins were −2, +3 and −11, and none of those covers 3.5. Dylan Raiola is the reported starter, though Oregon hasn't confirmed it. He's 44-of-78 for 348 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs in his last three appearances. Jay Johnson calls plays for the first time, and one week of install doesn't fix the quarterback. Northwestern doesn't beat itself. The Wildcats have 3 giveaways in 7 games. Aidan Chiles is 117-of-164 for 1,617 yards, 12 TDs and 1 INT. They convert 48% of third downs and have scored touchdowns on 23 of 32 red-zone trips. Their road games ended 23-29 and 24-21, and Oregon's home Big Ten games ended 15-17 and 17-14. This looks like a game decided by a field goal, so I'll take the hook. The risks are real. Oregon outgained Illinois and lost largely because of three missed field goals; Gage Hurych had been 9-of-9 before that game. Northwestern's run defense gave up 283 yards to Rutgers and 293 to Indiana. It's also missing Robert Fitzgerald, Brendan Flakes, Josh Fussell and Braxton Strong, while Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. ran for 175 at Illinois. The Wildcats' 6-1 is soft too: the only FBS team with a winning record they've played, Indiana, beat them. Raiola threw for 289 in relief at USC, and Evan Stewart may be back. Still, I won't lay points with an offense that has averaged 14 a game for a month. Northwestern +3.5.
No. 20 Northwestern flies about 1,780 miles to Autzen for a 12:30 Pacific kickoff under gray, 45-degree skies. It walks into an Oregon program that fired its offensive coordinator six days ago. Chip Kelly's return to Eugene will get the headlines, but Oregon's offense is the real story.
Since Dante Moore went down for the year, Oregon has scored 15, 17 and 10. That's 14 points a game, 8 of 44 on third down, 3 touchdowns in 10 red-zone trips and 10 giveaways. The margins were −2, +3 and −11, and none of those covers 3.5. Dylan Raiola is the reported starter, though Oregon hasn't confirmed it. He's 44-of-78 for 348 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs in his last three appearances. Jay Johnson calls plays for the first time, and one week of install doesn't fix the quarterback.
Northwestern doesn't beat itself. The Wildcats have 3 giveaways in 7 games. Aidan Chiles is 117-of-164 for 1,617 yards, 12 TDs and 1 INT. They convert 48% of third downs and have scored touchdowns on 23 of 32 red-zone trips. Their road games ended 23-29 and 24-21, and Oregon's home Big Ten games ended 15-17 and 17-14. This looks like a game decided by a field goal, so I'll take the hook.
The risks are real. Oregon outgained Illinois and lost largely because of three missed field goals; Gage Hurych had been 9-of-9 before that game. Northwestern's run defense gave up 283 yards to Rutgers and 293 to Indiana. It's also missing Robert Fitzgerald, Brendan Flakes, Josh Fussell and Braxton Strong, while Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. ran for 175 at Illinois. The Wildcats' 6-1 is soft too: the only FBS team with a winning record they've played, Indiana, beat them. Raiola threw for 289 in relief at USC, and Evan Stewart may be back.
Still, I won't lay points with an offense that has averaged 14 a game for a month. Northwestern +3.5.
Northwestern +3.5