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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM

Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks

O/U 48.5 · SPREAD Oregon Ducks -3.5 · Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR

GARY'S PICK
Northwestern +3.5
NCAAF@ Oregon· -110

Northwestern
+3.5

-110 · LOST · NU 26 · ORE 34

Oregon

The pick & result

Published pick
Northwestern Wildcats +3.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
26-34

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 54 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 1:31 PM
Close
Sat 3:27 PM
Move
SPREADOregon Ducks -3.5 (-105)Oregon Ducks -4 (-108)+½
TOTAL49.5 (-110)47.5 (-112)−2
MONEYLINEOregon Ducks -160Oregon Ducks -185−25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 1:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -160 · Northwestern Wildcats +130
Oct 25 3:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -160 · Northwestern Wildcats +130
Oct 25 4:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-105)Oregon Ducks -160 · Northwestern Wildcats +135
Oct 25 5:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 25 6:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 25 9:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 25 10:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-102)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -160 · Northwestern Wildcats +135
Oct 25 11:32 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +138
Oct 26 6:00 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)49.5 (-112)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 26 8:31 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 26 9:31 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +138
Oct 26 10:31 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)49.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 26 11:32 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)49.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 26 12:32 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)49.5 (-105)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 26 2:33 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)48.5 (-112)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 26 3:33 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)48.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 26 4:33 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 26 5:33 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-112)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 26 7:33 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 26 9:35 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-112)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 27 12:31 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 27 5:32 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 27 6:33 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Oct 27 7:35 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 28 6:00 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 28 1:48 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 28 2:48 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 28 3:48 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 28 6:18 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 28 8:00 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +138
Oct 28 8:19 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Oct 28 9:50 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +138
Oct 29 12:21 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Thu 10:23 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Thu 12:02 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Thu 12:18 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Thu 1:02 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Thu 1:32 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Thu 3:59 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Thu 5:36 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Thu 5:51 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Thu 8:06 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -165 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Thu 10:37 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +140
Fri 3:32 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Fri 4:02 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Fri 11:04 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-118)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Sat 12:34 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-120)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Sat 6:30 AMOregon Ducks -4 (-110)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Sat 8:31 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-120)47.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +145
Sat 9:00 AMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-120)48.5 (-102)Oregon Ducks -185 · Northwestern Wildcats +150
Sat 12:00 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-120)48.5 (-105)Oregon Ducks -185 · Northwestern Wildcats +150
Sat 1:35 PMOregon Ducks -3.5 (-120)47.5 (-115)Oregon Ducks -185 · Northwestern Wildcats +150
Sat 1:55 PMOregon Ducks -4 (-108)48.5 (-108)Oregon Ducks -185 · Northwestern Wildcats +150
Sat 3:17 PMOregon Ducks -4 (-108)48.5 (-102)Oregon Ducks -175 · Northwestern Wildcats +150
CLOSESat 3:27 PMOregon Ducks -4 (-108)47.5 (-112)Oregon Ducks -185 · Northwestern Wildcats +150

The read

No. 20 Northwestern flies about 1,780 miles to Autzen for a 12:30 Pacific kickoff under gray, 45-degree skies. It walks into an Oregon program that fired its offensive coordinator six days ago. Chip Kelly's return to Eugene will get the headlines, but Oregon's offense is the real story.

Since Dante Moore went down for the year, Oregon has scored 15, 17 and 10. That's 14 points a game, 8 of 44 on third down, 3 touchdowns in 10 red-zone trips and 10 giveaways. The margins were −2, +3 and −11, and none of those covers 3.5. Dylan Raiola is the reported starter, though Oregon hasn't confirmed it. He's 44-of-78 for 348 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs in his last three appearances. Jay Johnson calls plays for the first time, and one week of install doesn't fix the quarterback.

Northwestern doesn't beat itself. The Wildcats have 3 giveaways in 7 games. Aidan Chiles is 117-of-164 for 1,617 yards, 12 TDs and 1 INT. They convert 48% of third downs and have scored touchdowns on 23 of 32 red-zone trips. Their road games ended 23-29 and 24-21, and Oregon's home Big Ten games ended 15-17 and 17-14. This looks like a game decided by a field goal, so I'll take the hook.

The risks are real. Oregon outgained Illinois and lost largely because of three missed field goals; Gage Hurych had been 9-of-9 before that game. Northwestern's run defense gave up 283 yards to Rutgers and 293 to Indiana. It's also missing Robert Fitzgerald, Brendan Flakes, Josh Fussell and Braxton Strong, while Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. ran for 175 at Illinois. The Wildcats' 6-1 is soft too: the only FBS team with a winning record they've played, Indiana, beat them. Raiola threw for 289 in relief at USC, and Evan Stewart may be back.

Still, I won't lay points with an offense that has averaged 14 a game for a month. Northwestern +3.5.

Injuries noted

Northwestern Wildcats: Robert Fitzgerald (out) — DB #6 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Josh Fussell (out) — DB #13 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brendan Flakes (out) — DL #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Daniel Anderson (out) — RB #22 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Max Mohring (out) — LB #37 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jason Reynolds II (out) — LB #40 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Robby Preckel (probable) — RB #41 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Callen Campbell (out) — DL #44 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Qayvier Johnson (out) — LB #50 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Ezomo Oratokhai (out) — OL #62 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jacob Miller (out) — OL #79 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Chris Petrucci (out) — TE #81 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Braxton Strong (out) — DL #97 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report

Oregon Ducks: Iverson Hooks (questionable) — WR #2 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jeremiah McClellan (out) — WR #3 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Dante Moore (out) — QB #5 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Messiah Hampton (out) — WR #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Aaron Flowers (out) — DB #21 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brayden Platt (out) — ILB #23 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Matthew Johnson (out) — DL #55 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Trent Ferguson (out) — OL #56 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Dave Iuli (out) — OL #74 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Aidan Chiles is NU's projected starter

    9.86 Y/A

    Aidan Chiles is NU's projected starting quarterback. Current-week reporting names Chiles as Northwestern's quarterback. Yahoo Sports/Roundtable (Oct 31) says TE Luke Dehnicke's return gives Chiles another passing option. Lookout Eugene-Springfield (Oct 31) lists his season totals: 1,617 passing yards, 12 TD, 1 INT. Oregon Ducks on SI (Oct 29, Oregon-focused outlet) identifies him as Northwestern's QB. None of the opened sources has Northwestern or David Braun naming him the starter. None reports an injury to Chiles in Northwestern's last game or a limited practice this week; that is unverified, not confirmed healthy. 2026 line: 1617 passing yards, 71.3% completions, 9.86 yards per attempt, 12-1 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • Dylan Raiola is ORE's projected starter

    6.36 Y/A

    Dylan Raiola is ORE's projected starting quarterback. Yahoo Sports/Roundtable (Oct 30) reports, citing CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz, that Raiola will start against Northwestern. That attribution is to a reporter, not to Oregon, so the start is not team-confirmed in the opened sources. Oregon Ducks on SI (Oct 30) says Raiola started two of the three games since Dante Moore's injury and Brock Thomas started one and came off the bench in another. No opened source reports an injury to Raiola in the last game or a limited practice this week; unverified, not confirmed healthy. 2026 line: 725 passing yards, 64.0% completions, 6.36 yards per attempt, 6-2 TD-INT over 5 games.

TRENCHES

  • NU: 204.9 rushing yards per game to ORE's 142.1

    62.7 YPG

    Northwestern runs for 204.9 yards a game, up from 160.2 last season, while Oregon is at 142.1 after 198.6 last year. That's a full flip from last season, with Northwestern now the power run team. Over 7 games the shift looks real, though Oregon's drop could bounce back. Northwestern's rushing gives it a path to control the clock on the road.

TURNOVERS

  • NU: 0.43 turnovers committed per game to ORE's 1.57

    1.14 TO

    Northwestern turns it over just 0.43 times a game, down from 1.62 last season, while Oregon is at 1.57 after 1 last year. Turnover rates swing a lot, so Northwestern's clean 7 games likely won't stay this low. Oregon's rise is also probably temporary. Treat the turnover gap as smaller than it looks when handicapping the road side.

MISMATCH

  • NU: 0.43 turnovers a game to ORE's 1.57

    0.43 VS 1.57

    Northwestern has given the ball away less than once every two games through 7 games, while Oregon is coughing it up about one and a half times a game. Last season the picture was flipped: Northwestern at 1.62 a game, Oregon at 1. Turnover rates swing a lot over 7 games, so both numbers are likely to drift back toward those marks. For this road spot, Northwestern's best path is a clean, low-mistake game that keeps it close, and Oregon's giveaways are the thing that could let that happen.

REPLACEMENT

  • Callen Campbell (DL) is out for NU

    OUT

    DL #44 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Qayvier Johnson (LB) is out for NU

    OUT

    LB #50 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Ezomo Oratokhai (OL) is out for NU

    OUT

    OL #62 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Jacob Miller (OL) is out for NU

    OUT

    OL #79 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Chris Petrucci (TE) is out for NU

    OUT

    TE #81 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Braxton Strong (DL) is out for NU

    OUT

    DL #97 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Jeremiah McClellan (WR) is out for ORE

    OUT

    WR #3 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Dante Moore (QB) is out for ORE

    OUT

    QB #5 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Messiah Hampton (WR) is out for ORE

    OUT

    WR #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Aaron Flowers (DB) is out for ORE

    OUT

    DB #21 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Brayden Platt (LB) is out for ORE

    OUT

    ILB #23 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Matthew Johnson (DL) is out for ORE

    OUT

    DL #55 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Trent Ferguson (OL) is out for ORE

    OUT

    OL #56 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Dave Iuli (OL) is out for ORE

    OUT

    OL #74 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Robert Fitzgerald (DB) is out for NU

    OUT

    DB #6 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Josh Fussell (DB) is out for NU

    OUT

    DB #13 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Brendan Flakes (DL) is out for NU

    OUT

    DL #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Daniel Anderson (RB) is out for NU

    OUT

    RB #22 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Max Mohring (LB) is out for NU

    OUT

    LB #37 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Jason Reynolds II (LB) is out for NU

    OUT

    LB #40 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

TEAM RECORD

  • Big Ten game: NU 3-1, ORE 2-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big Ten. NU is 3-1 against it, ORE is 2-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

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