UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks
O/U 58.5 · SPREAD Oregon Ducks -10.5 · Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
The pick & result
- Published pick
- UCLA Bruins +10.5 -112
- Published odds
- -112
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 17-15
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 49 moves| Market | Opened Oct 4 12:04 AM | Close Oct 10 3:22 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Oregon Ducks -13 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -10 (+100) | −3 |
| TOTAL | 60.5 (-110) | 57.5 (-115) | −3 |
| MONEYLINE | Oregon Ducks -500 | Oregon Ducks -350 | +150 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 4 12:04 AM | Oregon Ducks -13 (-108) | 60.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -500 · UCLA Bruins +380 |
| Oct 4 12:34 AM | Oregon Ducks -13 (-105) | 61.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -500 · UCLA Bruins +400 |
| Oct 4 6:00 AM | Oregon Ducks -12 (-110) | 61.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 4 8:30 AM | Oregon Ducks -12.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -475 · UCLA Bruins +375 |
| Oct 4 10:31 AM | Oregon Ducks -12.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 4 11:31 AM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 4 12:31 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-118) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 4 1:31 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 4 2:33 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 4 3:56 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-110) | 61.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 4 4:56 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +340 |
| Oct 4 5:49 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-108) | 59.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +340 |
| Oct 4 6:50 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-108) | 59.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +340 |
| Oct 4 8:51 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 4 10:52 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 5 6:00 AM | Oregon Ducks -12 (-105) | 59.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 5 8:01 AM | Oregon Ducks -12 (-105) | 59.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -475 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 5 3:57 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -475 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 5 9:12 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 5 11:12 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -475 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 6 6:00 AM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 6 10:12 AM | Oregon Ducks -12 (-112) | 59.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 6 12:12 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 6 12:43 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 6 1:13 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 6 1:43 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 6 3:31 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 6 8:03 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-102) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 6 10:03 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 6 10:34 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-102) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 7 6:00 AM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-118) | 58.5 (-102) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 7 8:30 AM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-102) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 7 11:02 AM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 7 12:02 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 7 12:32 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -475 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 7 1:03 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 7 8:36 PM | Oregon Ducks -11 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +340 |
| Oct 8 7:30 AM | Oregon Ducks -12.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 8 9:00 AM | Oregon Ducks -12.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-108) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 8 10:31 AM | Oregon Ducks -12.5 (-115) | 58.5 (-112) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 8 11:01 AM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-112) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 8 12:32 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-112) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +360 |
| Oct 8 1:02 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-115) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 8 2:02 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 8 4:03 PM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-118) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 9 9:00 AM | Oregon Ducks -11.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -450 · UCLA Bruins +350 |
| Oct 9 3:02 PM | Oregon Ducks -10.5 (-105) | 59.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -425 · UCLA Bruins +320 |
| Oct 9 4:00 PM | Oregon Ducks -10.5 (-105) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -425 · UCLA Bruins +320 |
| Oct 10 1:50 PM | Oregon Ducks -10.5 (+100) | 58.5 (-105) | Oregon Ducks -425 · UCLA Bruins +320 |
| CLOSEOct 10 3:22 PM | Oregon Ducks -10 (+100) | 57.5 (-115) | Oregon Ducks -350 · UCLA Bruins +280 |
The read
Autzen gets a ranked conference matchup this afternoon, with both teams coming off a bye. Oregon turns to Dylan Raiola for his first Ducks start, while UCLA brings a rushing attack that has carried its unbeaten opening.
I’m taking UCLA because I expect its running game to keep its offense functional against this defense. The Bruins have rushed for at least 214 yards in every game, with Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods giving them productive options. Oregon allowed Oklahoma State 237 rushing yards at 5.9 yards per carry. That performance gives me reason to believe UCLA can create manageable downs and sustain possessions. Oregon also loses Aaron Flowers after he contributed in every completed game, adding a change behind the defensive front.
UCLA has a defensive route to staying within the number, too. Sammy Omosigho and Sahir West anchor a unit with 22 tackles for loss. Its changing pressure looks can challenge protection calls and interrupt drives. I expect some of that disruption to matter against Raiola, even though his USC performance showed he can execute this offense effectively.
Oregon’s strongest case is real. Raiola threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns against USC, and UCLA surrendered 425 passing yards to Purdue. Evan Stewart, Dakorien Moore and Jamari Johnson give Oregon multiple ways to punish pressure that fails to arrive. UCLA’s production also came against opponents currently sitting at 2-3, so its rushing success faces a meaningful step up today.
I still favor UCLA’s combination of early-down rushing and defensive disruption at +10.5. My expectation is that those strengths keep the Bruins competitive even when Oregon finds passing opportunities. The cover case can survive without another avalanche of takeaways, which makes the spread more appealing to me than UCLA’s moneyline.
Injuries noted
UCLA Bruins: Mikey Matthews (out) — Receiver; listed out on UCLA's initial availability report for Oregon. This game-specific report does not disclose the condition.; Jonah Smith (out) — Receiver; listed out for Oregon without a disclosed condition.; Sam Yoon (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out for Oregon without a disclosed condition.; Ashton Sanders (doubtful) — Defensive lineman; doubtful on the initial October 7 report, published October 8. A later individually dated status report was not retrieved.
Oregon Ducks: Dante Moore (out) — Quarterback; concussion sustained against USC. Listed out for UCLA on the October 7, 8 and 9 reports.; Aaron Flowers (out) — Safety; Friday's report downgraded him from doubtful to out. Injury specifics were not disclosed.; Aaron Scott Jr. (questionable) — Cornerback; upgraded from doubtful on October 8 and remained questionable on Friday. Injury specifics were not disclosed.; Jeremiah McClellan (out) — Receiver; UCLA-specific report lists him out. The tracker attributes his ongoing absence to a previously reported broken foot.; Simeon Price (out) — Running back; listed out for UCLA without a disclosed condition.; Brayden Platt (out) — Linebacker; listed out for UCLA. The tracker identifies a previously reported spring injury without further specifics.; Trent Ferguson (out for season) — Offensive lineman; listed out for UCLA. The tracker identifies a previously announced season-ending knee injury.; Jack Ressler (out) — Receiver; listed out for UCLA without a disclosed condition.; Dillon Gresham (out) — Receiver; included among the tracker’s nine players ruled out ahead of UCLA. Neck injury is dated background; no new medical assessment is reported.; Tony Cumberland (out) — Defensive lineman; included among the tracker’s nine players ruled out ahead of UCLA. Recovery from an April car accident is dated background.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Nico Iamaleava is UCLA's projected starter
8.28 Y/ANico Iamaleava is UCLA's projected starting quarterback. UCLA's October 5 Oregon preview describes Iamaleava leading the offensive huddle during game-week crowd-noise preparation. This supports a projected start, but the retrieved preview does not explicitly announce him as the October 10 starter. 2026 line: 820 passing yards, 62.6% completions, 8.28 yards per attempt, 4-2 TD-INT over 4 games.
Dylan Raiola is ORE's projected starter
11.47 Y/ADylan Raiola is ORE's projected starting quarterback. ESPN reporter Paolo Uggetti reports Raiola is set to start against UCLA on October 10 with Dante Moore out. Oregon had not formally announced its starter in the retrieved reporting. 2026 line: 413 passing yards, 83.3% completions, 11.47 yards per attempt, 5-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
UCLA: 281.5 rushing yards per game to ORE's 153.3
128.3 YPGUCLA is running for 281.5 yards a game, more than double last season's 139.6, over just four games. Oregon is at 153.3, well below last season's 198.6. Both numbers are likely to move toward last season, so UCLA's ground edge may be smaller in this matchup than it looks.
PACE & SCRIPT
UCLA @ ORE carries a 57.5 market total
57.5The current fanduel total is 57.5, 6 points above the 51.5 median across 27 games with posted totals on this slate.
TURNOVERS
UCLA: 3 takeaways per game to ORE's 1.75
1.25 TOUCLA is forcing 3 takeaways a game over four games, while Oregon is at 1.75. Takeaway rates swing hard on bounces and fumble luck, so four games at that pace is more likely to come down than hold. Oregon's ball security would be facing a defense that has been opportunistic. The takeaways have been more luck-driven than UCLA's other defensive numbers.
MISMATCH
UCLA: 281.5 rush yards a game to ORE's 153.3
281.5 VS 153.3UCLA is running for 281.5 yards a game over four games, double last season's 139.6, while Oregon has dipped to 153.3 from 198.6. A four-game jump that large probably reflects the opponents UCLA has faced, so expect it to come down at Oregon. Oregon has to stop the run early and force UCLA into passing downs. If UCLA's ground game holds up on the road, this game gets tighter than Oregon's reputation suggests.
REPLACEMENT
Trent Ferguson (OL) is out for the season for ORE
OUT FOR SEASONOffensive lineman; listed out for UCLA. The tracker identifies a previously announced season-ending knee injury. Oregon Injury Report: Dante Moore Update — explicitly dated October 9 update (2026-10-09) Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Mikey Matthews (WR) is out for UCLA
OUTReceiver; listed out on UCLA's initial availability report for Oregon. This game-specific report does not disclose the condition. Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Jonah Smith (WR) is out for UCLA
OUTReceiver; listed out for Oregon without a disclosed condition. Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Sam Yoon (OL) is out for UCLA
OUTOffensive lineman; listed out for Oregon without a disclosed condition. Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Dante Moore (QB) is out for ORE
OUTQuarterback; concussion sustained against USC. Listed out for UCLA on the October 7, 8 and 9 reports. Oregon QB Dante Moore ruled out vs. UCLA; Dylan Raiola to start — Paolo Uggetti, ESPN/ABC7 (2026-10-09) Oregon Injury Report: Dante Moore Update — explicitly dated October 9 update (2026-10-09)
Aaron Flowers (DB) is out for ORE
OUTSafety; Friday's report downgraded him from doubtful to out. Injury specifics were not disclosed. Oregon Injury Report: Dante Moore Update — explicitly dated October 9 update (2026-10-09)
Jeremiah McClellan (WR) is out for ORE
OUTReceiver; UCLA-specific report lists him out. The tracker attributes his ongoing absence to a previously reported broken foot. Oregon Injury Report: Dante Moore Update — explicitly dated October 9 update (2026-10-09) Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Simeon Price (RB) is out for ORE
OUTRunning back; listed out for UCLA without a disclosed condition. Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Brayden Platt (LB) is out for ORE
OUTLinebacker; listed out for UCLA. The tracker identifies a previously reported spring injury without further specifics. Oregon Injury Report: Dante Moore Update — explicitly dated October 9 update (2026-10-09) Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Jack Ressler (WR) is out for ORE
OUTReceiver; listed out for UCLA without a disclosed condition. Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA — Zachary Neel, Ducks Wire/AOL; published 00:01 UTC (2026-10-08)
Dillon Gresham (WR) is out for ORE
OUTReceiver; included among the tracker’s nine players ruled out ahead of UCLA. Neck injury is dated background; no new medical assessment is reported. Oregon Injury Report: Dante Moore Update — explicitly dated October 9 update (2026-10-09)
Tony Cumberland (DL) is out for ORE
OUTDefensive lineman; included among the tracker’s nine players ruled out ahead of UCLA. Recovery from an April car accident is dated background. Oregon Injury Report: Dante Moore Update — explicitly dated October 9 update (2026-10-09)
SITUATIONAL
No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon
#21 VS #13The poll says Oregon is the far more respected side: 831 points to UCLA's 287, even with a loss on Oregon's record and UCLA at 4-0. That gap reflects reputation more than this season's results. Both teams climbed two spots this week. UCLA has the bigger chance to jump with a road win, and a loss at home costs Oregon more.
TEAM RECORD
Big Ten game: UCLA 2-0, ORE 1-0 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the Big Ten. UCLA is 2-0 against it, ORE is 1-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day