Michigan Wolverines picks

It's a 12:30 Halloween kickoff in Piscataway, clear and 57 degrees, and both teams arrive limping. Michigan is 1-3 in the Big Ten and starting a true freshman for the second straight week. Rutgers is down to a backup quarterback after Dylan Lonergan was ruled out with a head injury. I'm taking the points. Rutgers' offense is broken, but Michigan's offense hasn't shown it can win by 17 against anyone but UTEP. Michigan's margins this season are +1, +7, +35, -1, -6, +3 and -7. Outside UTEP, the Wolverines average 15.0 points and have topped 21 once. Tommy Carr's first start produced 6 points in regulation, no touchdowns on three red-zone trips, 6-of-20 on third down and four sacks. Trey Butkowski missed a field goal from 32. Up front, Andrew Sprague is out and Blake Frazier is questionable. The case for Michigan is real. Every FBS team that has played Rutgers scored more than its average in its other games, about 9 points more. The Scarlet Knights gave up 339 and 292 rushing yards in their last two losses, and Kaj Sanders and Zahmir Dawud are out in the secondary. But those two blowouts came against Indiana and Northwestern, offenses that average 31.7 and 33.5 points elsewhere. Add 9 to Michigan's 15-point average and you get the mid-20s. Rutgers won't move it much through the air. The backups went 9-of-27 for 100 yards and two interceptions at Northwestern, and Michigan holds opponents about 12 points under their averages. But Antwan Raymond and Clay Thevenin ran for 266 yards on 32 carries last week, and a run-heavy game plan shortens the game. My number is Michigan by about 15. That's a lean, not a hammer. Turnovers could beat this ticket. Rutgers has 14 giveaways in seven games, and AJ Surace threw four interceptions in his only start. Michigan has returned two interceptions for touchdowns and blocked two punts this year. I'd also back off if Sean Ashenfelder starts or if KJ Duff sits. Duff has 774 of Rutgers' 1,695 passing yards. I haven't seen today's final availability report.