Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines
O/U 43.5 · SPREAD Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 · Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 13-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 65 moves| Market | Opened Oct 18 1:02 PM | Close Sat 11:53 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Indiana Hoosiers -8 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 42.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Indiana Hoosiers -325 | Indiana Hoosiers -295 | +30 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 18 1:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -8 (-108) | 42.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -325 · Michigan Wolverines +260 |
| Oct 18 3:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -8 (-108) | 41.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -325 · Michigan Wolverines +260 |
| Oct 18 4:03 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-102) | 41.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Oct 18 5:03 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-115) | 41.5 (-105) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Oct 18 6:03 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 18 7:04 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-105) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 18 9:04 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 18 11:34 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 19 6:00 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 19 10:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-115) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 19 11:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (+100) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 19 12:31 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-118) | 41.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 19 3:31 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-102) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 19 5:31 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 19 10:55 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 20 6:00 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 20 9:00 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +220 |
| Oct 20 10:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 20 11:14 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 20 11:44 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 21 9:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 21 12:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 21 5:32 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Oct 21 7:21 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +225 |
| Oct 21 11:22 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-112) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -275 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Thu 10:27 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Thu 11:58 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 41.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Thu 12:28 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 41.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 12:58 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 41.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Thu 1:29 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 41.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Thu 2:29 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 41.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 2:59 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 5:23 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-115) | 41.5 (-120) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Thu 5:53 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 6:23 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 41.5 (-120) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 7:24 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 42.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 7:54 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 8:24 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 42.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Thu 8:54 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 4:45 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -285 · Michigan Wolverines +230 |
| Fri 7:01 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 12:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-120) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 1:32 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 3:33 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 4:00 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-102) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Fri 4:10 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 5:40 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-115) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 5:51 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 6:21 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 6:51 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Fri 8:33 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 8:00 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-115) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 9:11 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Sat 10:01 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Sat 10:11 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Sat 10:17 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 10:42 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 10:48 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 10:53 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Sat 11:00 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Sat 11:13 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
| Sat 11:33 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| Sat 11:43 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-112) | Indiana Hoosiers -300 · Michigan Wolverines +250 |
| CLOSESat 11:53 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -295 · Michigan Wolverines +240 |
The read
Noon at the Big House, overcast and calm. Michigan hands the ball to Tommy Carr for a first start against the No. 6 team in the country. Indiana lays 7.5 on the road, and I'm laying it with them.
Michigan's offense is the weakest unit on the field. Underwood threw two interceptions in each of the last two games. The Penn State comeback came on three rushing touchdowns and three takeaways, not on Carr's arm. Carr should cut the giveaways, but Michigan still wants to run, and stopping the run is Indiana's strength. Northwestern ran 27 times for 32 yards, Ohio State 37 for 78, and the Hoosiers have recorded at least four sacks in every Big Ten game.
Michigan's injuries hit where it hurts. Etta, Moore Jr. and Moa are questionable on defense, and Daley's status is unclear. The line is missing Hamilton and Sprague, with three more linemen questionable. That puts a first-time starter behind a patched line against a pass rush that gets home.
Indiana will have to throw, because Michigan stops the run too. Hoover can carry that: 296 yards against Ohio State, 263 on 22 attempts at Nebraska, and no interceptions all season. Becker and Nick Marsh can stretch a secondary that may be without Moore Jr. Indiana's close wins over Nebraska and Northwestern hid how thoroughly it outplayed both, snap for snap. Michigan's respectable numbers came against a softer schedule.
Ignore the bounce-back talk, the quarterback drama and Michigan's run of one-score games. A likely low score cuts both ways at this number. Calm weather and equal rest don't separate these teams.
The risk is real. Indiana scored 15 and 20 against the last two good defenses it faced. If Carr stops giving the ball away, this becomes a grind where every Michigan field goal eats into the number. Check Michigan's inactives: if Daley, Etta and Moore Jr. all play, this is close to a pass. As it stands, it's a modest lean on the Hoosiers.
Injuries noted
Michigan Wolverines: Ace Hamilton (out) — Offensive lineman; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed.; Andrew Sprague (out) — Right tackle; ruled out again. Condition undisclosed.; Braydon Alford (out) — Wide receiver; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed.; Julius Holly (out) — Defensive end; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed.; Kendrick Bell (out) — Wide receiver; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed.; Mason Bonner (out) — Tight end; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed.; Micah Ka'apana (out) — Running back; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed.; Aisea Moa (questionable) — Linebacker; Friday designation. Condition undisclosed.; Blake Frazier (questionable) — Offensive lineman; Friday designation. Condition undisclosed.; Brady Norton (questionable) — Offensive lineman; Friday designation. Condition undisclosed.; Enow Etta (questionable) — Defensive tackle; Friday designation. Condition undisclosed.; Jake Guarnera (questionable) — Starting center; Friday designation. Condition undisclosed.; Rod Moore Jr. (questionable) — Safety; Friday designation. Left the Penn State game after an interception; specific condition undisclosed.; Andrew Babalola (probable) — Offensive lineman; Friday designation. Condition undisclosed.; John Henry Daley (questionable) — October 23 GBM Wolverine recap calls him questionable, but he is absent from the later Friday report reproduced by Kickoff Status. Conflicting reporting; designation unverified.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Hoover is IU's projected starter
9.82 Y/AJosh Hoover is IU's projected starting quarterback. October 22 Herald-Times reporting identifies Hoover as Indiana's starting quarterback and discusses his status for Michigan. No explicit team announcement naming this game's starter was retrieved. 2026 line: 1660 passing yards, 63.9% completions, 9.82 yards per attempt, 18-0 TD-INT over 7 games.
Tommy Carr is MICH's projected starter
PROJECTEDTommy Carr is MICH's projected starting quarterback. October 23 reporting identifies Carr as the expected starter against Indiana but says Kyle Whittingham had not announced his decision. No verified passing sample is available yet.
TRENCHES
IU: 200.9 rushing yards per game to MICH's 147.7
53.2 YPGIU is at 200.9 rushing yards per game over 7 games; MICH is at 147.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season IU was at 212.9 over 16 games and MICH at 210.2 over 13 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
IU: 36.6 points per game to MICH's 22.7
13.9 PPGIndiana is scoring less than last season's 41.6 and still well ahead of Michigan, which is down from 27.5. Indiana's offense is a proven unit over a long stretch, and Michigan's dip is the newer, shakier number. Paired with Indiana's low turnovers, Michigan needs to win this with defense rather than scoring.
IU @ MICH carries a 42.5 market total
42.5At 42.5, Indiana at Michigan sits 9 points under the 51.5 slate median, so the market expects a slow, grinding game. The sheet gives no injury or matchup detail to explain it, so the number is the market's own read. Breaking it would take early scoring that forces both teams to throw, or turnovers that hand over short fields. In low-total spots, how the first half goes usually decides whether the number holds.
TURNOVERS
IU: 0.43 turnovers committed per game to MICH's 1.83
1.4 TOIndiana almost never gives the ball away, and it did the same thing over 16 games last season at 0.5 a game, so this is who they are. Michigan is coughing it up more than last season's 1.31. In a game where Indiana will not hand over short fields, Michigan has to drive the length of the field or force mistakes Indiana rarely makes.
MISMATCH
IU: 0.43 turnovers a game to MICH's 1.83
0.43 VS 1.83Indiana has turned it over 0.43 times a game over 7 games, close to its 0.5 last season, so ball security is a real trait. Michigan is up to 1.83 from 1.31. Indiana's number has held for two seasons, while Michigan's six-game rate is likely to settle somewhat. At home, Michigan has to protect the football, because handing extra possessions to a careful Indiana team is the quickest way to lose this game.
REPLACEMENT
Ace Hamilton (OL) is out for MICH
OUTOffensive lineman; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed. Indiana at Michigan Injury Report — Week 8 (2026-10-23)
Andrew Sprague (OL) is out for MICH
OUTRight tackle; ruled out again. Condition undisclosed. Indiana at Michigan Injury Report — Week 8 (2026-10-23) Michigan Wolverines news: Michigan-Indiana injury updates, Roddy Gayle is back (2026-10-23)
Braydon Alford (WR) is out for MICH
OUTWide receiver; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed. Indiana at Michigan Injury Report — Week 8 (2026-10-23)
Julius Holly (DE) is out for MICH
OUTDefensive end; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed. Indiana at Michigan Injury Report — Week 8 (2026-10-23)
Kendrick Bell (WR) is out for MICH
OUTWide receiver; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed. Indiana at Michigan Injury Report — Week 8 (2026-10-23)
Mason Bonner (TE) is out for MICH
OUTTight end; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed. Indiana at Michigan Injury Report — Week 8 (2026-10-23)
Micah Ka'apana (RB) is out for MICH
OUTRunning back; Friday report lists him out. Condition undisclosed. Indiana at Michigan Injury Report — Week 8 (2026-10-23)
SITUATIONAL
IU: 249.1 team passing yards per game to MICH's 165.7
83.5 YPGIndiana throws for a lot more than Michigan does: 249.1 a game across 7 games against 165.7 across 6. Both teams are close to who they were last season, Indiana at 239.1 and Michigan dropping from 186.8, so this gap reflects real identity on each side. Expect Indiana to lean on the pass while Michigan wins, if it wins, on the ground and with clock. In this spot, Indiana's passing volume is the steadier piece to build around.
IU: 35.8 penalty yards per game to MICH's 65.8
30 YDSIU is at 35.8 penalty yards per game over 7 games; MICH is at 65.8 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season IU was at 27.6 over 16 games and MICH at 39.1 over 13 games.
TEAM RECORD
Big Ten game: IU 3-1, MICH 1-2 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the Big Ten. IU is 3-1 against it, MICH is 1-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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