UTEP Miners at Michigan Wolverines
O/U 48.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- UTEP Miners +34.5 -104
- Published odds
- -104
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 17-52
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 57 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 4:46 PM | Close Sep 19 3:29 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Michigan Wolverines -37.5 (-108) | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-108) | −3 |
| TOTAL | 49.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Michigan Wolverines -35000 | Michigan Wolverines -35000 | Holds |
MONEYLINE first seen Sep 17 12:32 PM
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 4:46 PM | Michigan Wolverines -37.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 13 10:16 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 15 10:31 AM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 15 11:01 AM | — | 48.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 15 12:01 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35 (-112) | 48.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 15 1:01 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35 (-110) | 48.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 16 4:32 PM | — | 49.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 16 5:18 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 49.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 16 7:37 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 49.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 16 8:07 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 49.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 16 8:37 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 16 11:38 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 12:08 AM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-115) | 48.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 17 6:00 AM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 17 10:31 AM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 12:32 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-125) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 17 1:02 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-112) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 1:32 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 3:02 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 3:32 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 4:30 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 4:41 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 5:01 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 5:11 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 5:41 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 5:51 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 6:01 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 5:01 AM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 18 6:00 AM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 11:31 AM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 12:32 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 1:33 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 2:03 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 3:03 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 3:33 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 4:04 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 4:30 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 5:10 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-108) | 48.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 5:30 PM | Michigan Wolverines -36 (-112) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 18 5:51 PM | Michigan Wolverines -35.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 18 7:04 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-125) | — |
| Sep 18 7:34 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-112) | 48.5 (-120) | Michigan Wolverines -100000 · UTEP Miners +5500 |
| Sep 18 9:02 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +4500 |
| Sep 18 10:32 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -50000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 18 11:32 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +4500 |
| Sep 19 5:00 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -50000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 19 6:00 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +4500 |
| Sep 19 6:30 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-108) | Michigan Wolverines -50000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 19 8:00 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 19 9:31 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-108) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 19 9:52 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +4500 |
| Sep 19 11:03 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 19 11:50 AM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-118) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -50000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 19 2:32 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -50000 · UTEP Miners +5000 |
| Sep 19 3:09 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +4500 |
| Sep 19 3:15 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34 (-110) | 48.5 (-108) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +4500 |
| CLOSESep 19 3:29 PM | Michigan Wolverines -34.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-110) | Michigan Wolverines -35000 · UTEP Miners +4500 |
The read
Michigan closes its nonconference schedule at home, coming off a defensive win over Oklahoma. UTEP arrives after finding its offense against Texas Southern, with a much tougher assignment waiting in Ann Arbor.
I’m taking the points because Michigan’s offensive consistency gives UTEP a credible path to covering. The Wolverines have a 34.9% offensive success rate and average 2.667 points per scoring opportunity—possessions reaching the opponent’s 40. Those struggles matter against a UTEP front that has stopped 26.7% of opposing carries at or behind the line. My read is that Michigan will encounter enough stalled possessions to make this a demanding number to cover.
Bryce Underwood supplies a real rushing threat, and JJ Buchanan has delivered 174 receiving yards. But Jordan Marshall’s 3.5 yards per carry illustrates why I’m reluctant to assume Michigan can repeatedly march downfield through its backs. UTEP doesn’t need to shut this offense down; disrupting drives and making Michigan earn its touchdowns can be enough.
The danger is Michigan’s defense taking control so completely that the offense gets repeated short fields. Oklahoma held EJ Colson Jr. to 52 passing yards, and Michigan subsequently limited Oklahoma to 289 total yards. Colson’s four-touchdown passing performance against Texas Southern doesn’t establish that he can handle this assignment. Underwood’s running and Buchanan’s receiving also give Michigan ways to turn a defensive advantage into rapid separation.
Still, UTEP has demonstrated rushing contributions from Tavorus Jones and backup quarterback Raymond Moore III alongside Colson. I see those options as a plausible way to sustain some possessions, without requiring UTEP to reproduce last week’s offense. My bet rests on Michigan having to work for its scoring opportunities and UTEP doing enough to keep that offensive burden meaningful. At +34.5, that is the side I want.
Injuries noted
Michigan Wolverines: Andrew Babalola (out) — Kyle Whittingham reported that the offensive lineman suffered a setback and would not be available in the near future.; Hogan Hansen (questionable) — The tight end remained questionable while recovering from an undisclosed injury.; Evan Link (probable) — The starting guard missed the Oklahoma game with an undisclosed injury; Whittingham said he should be available against UTEP barring anything unforeseen.; Carter Meadows (probable) — The freshman edge defender missed Michigan's first two games but Whittingham said he should be good to go against UTEP.; Logan Forbes (questionable) — The reserve receiver and special-teams contributor was listed questionable with an undisclosed injury after being taken off the field against Oklahoma.; Brady Smigiel (out for season) — The freshman quarterback was reported out for 2026 while recovering from a torn ACL and is not part of the active competition behind Underwood.; Micah Ka'apana (out for season) — The reserve running back remains out for the 2026 season with a season-ending injury.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
EJ Colson Jr. is UTEP's projected starter
8.82 Y/AEJ Colson Jr. is UTEP's projected starting quarterback. The UTEP depth chart updated Sept. 18 projects Colson as the starter and Raymond Moore III second; UTEP's official weekly preview also identifies Moore as the backup. 2026 line: 291 passing yards, 60.6% completions, 8.82 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
Bryce Underwood is MICH's projected starter
7.21 Y/ABryce Underwood is MICH's projected starting quarterback. Michigan's depth chart updated Sept. 18 lists Underwood first at quarterback, ahead of Tommy Carr and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi; no current-week coach statement explicitly guaranteed the start. 2026 line: 281 passing yards, 53.8% completions, 7.21 yards per attempt, 1-1 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
UTEP is +53 rush yards per game
53 YPGUTEP is at 182 rushing yards per game over 2 games; MICH is at 129 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
PACE & SCRIPT
MICH's defense gives up 19.5 fewer points per game
19.5 PPGUTEP is at 30.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; MICH is at 11 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
UTEP @ MICH carries a 79.5 market total
79.5The current draftkings total is 79.5, 24 points above the 55.5 median across 45 games with posted totals on this slate.
UTEP is scoring +10.5 points per game
10.5 PPGUTEP is at 25.5 points per game over 2 games; MICH is at 15 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
MICH's defense against UTEP's — MICH allows 11 a game, UTEP 30.5
11 VS 30.5The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — UTEP 30.5, MICH 11, over 2 and 2 game samples.
REPLACEMENT
Brady Smigiel (QB) is out for the season for MICH
OUT FOR SEASONCurrent Week 3 team coverage lists the freshman quarterback out for 2026 with a torn ACL. Michigan Football Team Preview (2026-09-17)
Micah Ka'apana (RB) is out for the season for MICH
OUT FOR SEASONCurrent Week 3 team coverage lists the running back out for the 2026 season. Michigan Football Team Preview (2026-09-17)
Andrew Babalola (OL) is out for MICH
OUTHad a setback while returning from a 2025 ACL tear; Kyle Whittingham said he would not be available in the near future. Michigan Football Injury Report: 2 players ‘should be good to go’ vs UTEP (2026-09-17)
SITUATIONAL
UTEP gives away 44.5 fewer penalty yards per game
44.5 YDSUTEP is at 40.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; MICH is at 85 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKBRYCE UNDERWOODPASSING YARDS UNDER 194.5
I’m taking Underwood under 194.5 passing yards. He has totaled 281 yards on 39 attempts through Michigan’s two dated games, leaving him well below this number in per-game production. His rushing ability also gives Michigan another way to move the offense without building his passing total.
The likely game script matters most. Michigan can lean on its defense, favorable field position and a deep rushing rotation rather than asking Underwood to throw aggressively for four quarters. UTEP’s ability to disrupt runs could create some early passing opportunities, but Underwood would still need a meaningful increase in volume or efficiency to clear this line. At -111, I’m betting Michigan controls the game without requiring 195 passing yards from its quarterback.
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