It's Halloween night in Ames, with Iowa State in all black under the lights and a home crowd hoping its offense can keep up. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma State. This comes down to Drew Mestemaker against a pass defense that's coming apart. Mestemaker has thrown for 300-plus in six straight games and has averaged 11.6 yards a throw over his last four FBS games. Iowa State has allowed 52-of-67 passing for 665 yards over its last two games, with one sack. Its line is getting thinner. DT Bryson Lamb, a starter in all seven games, is out, along with Caden Crawford, Ka'Mori Moore and CB Beni Ngoyi. This defense has 4 sacks in six FBS games, and the forecast is dry and nearly windless. Oklahoma State has scored on 30 of 42 drives over its last four FBS games and punted six times. Iowa State has 13 points, one touchdown on 21 drives and 5-of-27 on third down across its last two. Jaylen Raynor was benched at halftime last week before getting the job back. Four of the six receivers expected to lead the group are gone for the year. The comparisons agree. Against Utah, BYU and Arizona, the Cyclones lost by 14, 14 and 36. Oklahoma State won by 17 at West Virginia, while Iowa State beat the Mountaineers by 3 at home. The risks are real:
- The Cowboys have allowed 24 or more to every FBS opponent, and the secondary is thin. Mose Phillips III is out for the season, and Quinton Hammonds is questionable after being seen in a sling.
- West Virginia ran 62 times for 358 yards on this defense. Iowa State held the ball for 38:14 in its 45-point game against the Mountaineers. If Aiden Flora controls the clock, Oklahoma State gets fewer possessions.
- Sam Keltner is 18-for-18 on field goals, but Oklahoma State turns only 17 of 35 red-zone trips against FBS teams into touchdowns. Field goals keep games close.
- The Cowboys are 1-2 on the road. Still, I don't trust Iowa State's offense to keep pace. Oklahoma State pulls away and wins by double digits.
It's Halloween night in Ames, with Iowa State in all black under the lights and a home crowd hoping its offense can keep up. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma State.
This comes down to Drew Mestemaker against a pass defense that's coming apart. Mestemaker has thrown for 300-plus in six straight games and has averaged 11.6 yards a throw over his last four FBS games. Iowa State has allowed 52-of-67 passing for 665 yards over its last two games, with one sack. Its line is getting thinner. DT Bryson Lamb, a starter in all seven games, is out, along with Caden Crawford, Ka'Mori Moore and CB Beni Ngoyi. This defense has 4 sacks in six FBS games, and the forecast is dry and nearly windless.
Oklahoma State has scored on 30 of 42 drives over its last four FBS games and punted six times. Iowa State has 13 points, one touchdown on 21 drives and 5-of-27 on third down across its last two. Jaylen Raynor was benched at halftime last week before getting the job back. Four of the six receivers expected to lead the group are gone for the year.
The comparisons agree. Against Utah, BYU and Arizona, the Cyclones lost by 14, 14 and 36. Oklahoma State won by 17 at West Virginia, while Iowa State beat the Mountaineers by 3 at home.
The risks are real:
- The Cowboys have allowed 24 or more to every FBS opponent, and the secondary is thin. Mose Phillips III is out for the season, and Quinton Hammonds is questionable after being seen in a sling.
- West Virginia ran 62 times for 358 yards on this defense. Iowa State held the ball for 38:14 in its 45-point game against the Mountaineers. If Aiden Flora controls the clock, Oklahoma State gets fewer possessions.
- Sam Keltner is 18-for-18 on field goals, but Oklahoma State turns only 17 of 35 red-zone trips against FBS teams into touchdowns. Field goals keep games close.
- The Cowboys are 1-2 on the road.
Still, I don't trust Iowa State's offense to keep pace. Oklahoma State pulls away and wins by double digits.
Oklahoma State -9.5