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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM

Utah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones

O/U 46.5 · SPREAD Utah Utes -7.5

GARY'S PICK
Iowa State +8.5
NCAAFvs Utah· -115

Iowa State
+8.5

-115 · LOST · UTAH 31 · ISU 17

Utah

The pick & result

Published pick
Iowa State Cyclones +8.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Lost
Final score
31-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 46 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 20 4:43 PM
Close
Sep 26 3:28 PM
Move
SPREADUtah Utes -10 (-112)Utah Utes -7.5 (-108)−2½
TOTAL48.5 (-115)46.5 (-112)−2
MONEYLINEUtah Utes -450Utah Utes -325+125
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 20 4:43 PMUtah Utes -10 (-112)48.5 (-115)Utah Utes -450 · Iowa State Cyclones +350
Sep 20 8:44 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-110)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 20 9:44 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-110)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +280
Sep 20 10:44 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-110)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 21 6:00 AMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-110)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +280
Sep 21 9:00 AMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-110)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 21 2:02 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-112)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 21 5:03 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-110)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 21 8:04 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-108)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 22 6:00 AMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 22 8:30 AMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 22 2:17 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-108)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +280
Sep 22 4:26 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)48.5 (-108)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 22 5:26 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 22 6:27 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 22 8:28 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 22 11:28 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 23 8:59 AMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 23 11:04 AMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 23 12:04 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 23 3:05 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 23 4:06 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 23 5:06 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 23 7:37 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 23 8:07 PMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-105)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +275
Sep 24 12:10 AMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-102)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 24 6:00 AMUtah Utes -8 (-110)48.5 (-108)Utah Utes -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 24 12:52 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)47.5 (-112)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 25 5:01 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-118)47.5 (-115)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 25 7:31 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-118)47.5 (-112)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 25 10:31 AMUtah Utes -8 (-108)47.5 (-112)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 25 1:31 PMUtah Utes -8 (-108)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 25 11:37 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 26 9:11 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 9:42 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 26 9:53 AMUtah Utes -8 (-110)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 10:03 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 10:13 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 10:34 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Sep 26 10:44 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 10:54 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 11:45 AMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 12:37 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 2:17 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 3:08 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)46.5 (-110)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Sep 26 3:18 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-105)46.5 (-115)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
CLOSESep 26 3:28 PMUtah Utes -7.5 (-108)46.5 (-112)Utah Utes -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260

The read

Conference play arrives in Ames with a White Out crowd and rain in the forecast. Utah takes its unbeaten start on the road for the first time under Morgan Scalley, facing an Iowa State team building its identity under Jimmy Rogers.

I’m taking Iowa State’s points because its defensive performance gives it a credible way to keep Utah from turning an offensive advantage into separation. The Cyclones have allowed a 31.9% success rate and 1.357 points per scoring opportunity this season. Their defense has also limited the damage on successful opposing plays, ranking 32nd in explosiveness allowed. My expectation is that Utah will have to sustain drives and earn its finishes, which makes +8.5 attractive.

Devon Dampier is the strongest argument against this ticket. His 71.6% completion rate and Utah’s 48.1% success rate on passing downs show how effectively this offense has recovered from difficult situations. Braden Pegan supplies a productive receiving option, and Byrd Ficklin’s meaningful quarterback role adds another preparation challenge. Iowa State’s defensive front absences matter against that variety. I still expect the Cyclones’ demonstrated ability to disrupt rushing plays and defend scoring opportunities to make this a more demanding assignment than Utah’s earlier games.

Iowa State has a plausible scoring route through Aiden Flora and Jaylen Raynor’s rushing contributions. Flora has 328 rushing yards on 38 carries, and Iowa State ranks 21st in offensive explosiveness. Utah has allowed successful opposing plays to do substantial damage, ranking 120th in explosiveness allowed. I see opportunities for Iowa State to punish the assignment errors Scalley has identified, even if sustained offensive efficiency remains a weakness.

The schedule context reinforces my willingness to take the points. Utah’s strength of schedule ranks 130th, compared with Iowa State’s 68th, so I place less weight on the size of Utah’s early wins. Iowa State’s return touchdowns against Bowling Green also keep me from treating that scoring outburst as its offensive baseline. This ticket rests on defensive resistance and enough explosive offense to remain competitive. Those are the matchup reasons I want Iowa State +8.5.

Injuries noted

Utah Utes: Kana'i Lopes (out) — Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (tight end).; Isaiah Garcia (out) — Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (offensive lineman); had been listed probable on the Thursday report before this update.

Iowa State Cyclones: Jaheim Singletary (out) — Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (cornerback); had been hospitalized following a collision in a prior game, per earlier reporting.; Trey Verdon (out) — Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (defensive end).; Daniel Howard (out) — Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (defensive tackle).; Ray Coffey (out) — Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (wide receiver).; Ka'Mori Moore (out) — Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (defensive tackle).; Rylan Barnes (doubtful) — Listed 'Doubtful' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (linebacker); had been listed questionable on the Thursday report.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Devon Dampier is UTAH's confirmed starter

    9.32 Y/A

    Devon Dampier is UTAH's confirmed starting quarterback. Referred to as Utah's starting/primary quarterback ('Utah star Devon Dampier') in current-week Iowa State game coverage; Friday's official Big 12 availability report lists no quarterback injury or availability concern for Utah ahead of this game. 2026 line: 690 passing yards, 71.6% completions, 9.32 yards per attempt, 7-1 TD-INT over 3 games.

  • Jaylen Raynor is ISU's confirmed starter

    7.88 Y/A

    Jaylen Raynor is ISU's confirmed starting quarterback. Named as Iowa State's starting quarterback in current-week (Sept. 25, 2026) preview coverage of the Utah game; Friday's official availability report lists no quarterback injury/availability concern for Iowa State. 2026 line: 410 passing yards, 55.8% completions, 7.88 yards per attempt, 4-1 TD-INT over 3 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • UTAH: 47.3 points per game to ISU's 35.3

    12 PPG

    UTAH is at 47.3 points per game over 3 games; ISU is at 35.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season UTAH was at 41.3 over 13 games and ISU at 27.4 over 12 games.

  • UTAH @ ISU carries a 47.5 market total

    47.5

    A 47.5 total is 7 points under the 54.5 median, which means the market expects a physical, slower game with drives that eat clock. Points likely come in fewer, longer possessions. For the number to crack, one side has to find explosive plays or score off turnovers. Red zone efficiency will decide which side of this number the game lands on.

MISMATCH

  • UTAH: 285.3 pass yards a game to ISU's 143.3

    285.3 VS 143.3

    Utah is throwing for 285.3 yards a game through three games, a big jump from 216.6 last season. Iowa State is at 143.3, down from 221.4. Both moves come off three games, so each side likely settles closer to last season. Iowa State's path is shortening the game and keeping Utah's passing attack off the field, which makes the pace of this one worth thinking about before the total.

REPLACEMENT

  • Ka'Mori Moore (DT) is out for ISU

    OUT

    Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (defensive tackle). Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25)

  • Ray Coffey (WR) is out for ISU

    OUT

    Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (wide receiver). Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25)

  • Daniel Howard (DT) is out for ISU

    OUT

    Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (defensive tackle). Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25)

  • Trey Verdon (DE) is out for ISU

    OUT

    Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (defensive end). Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25)

  • Jaheim Singletary (CB) is out for ISU

    OUT

    Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (cornerback); had been hospitalized following a collision in a prior game, per earlier reporting. Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25)

  • Isaiah Garcia (OL) is out for UTAH

    OUT

    Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (offensive lineman); had been listed probable on the Thursday report before this update. Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25) Injury report for Iowa State's matchup versus No. 15 Utah (2026-09-24)

  • Kana'i Lopes (TE) is out for UTAH

    OUT

    Listed 'Out' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (tight end). Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25)

  • Rylan Barnes (TE) is doubtful for ISU

    DOUBTFUL

    Listed 'Doubtful' on the Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 availability report (linebacker); had been listed questionable on the Thursday report. Iowa State football vs Utah, Friday's player availability report (2026-09-25) Injury report for Iowa State's matchup versus No. 15 Utah (2026-09-24)

SITUATIONAL

  • UTAH: 285.3 team passing yards per game to ISU's 143.3

    142 YPG

    Utah is throwing for 285.3 a game through three games, far above the 216.6 it averaged last season. ISU has fallen to 143.3 after 221.4 last season. Both moves are big for a three-game stretch, so some pullback toward last year is likely on each side. Utah looks like the team more willing to throw here, but don't price this game as if these three-game numbers are locked in.

  • UTAH: 60.5% third-down conversion rate to ISU's 35.5%

    25 PP

    Utah is converting 60.5% of third downs, which keeps drives alive and the ball away from the other side. ISU sits at 35.5%. Both are three-game rates: Utah was 52.9% last season and ISU 40.1%, so each is running a bit hot or cold. Utah should still own more of the long drives in this game, just by a smaller margin than 60.5 against 35.5 suggests.

  • UTAH: 26.7 first downs per game to ISU's 15.7

    11 FD

    Utah is moving the chains at 26.7 first downs a game over three games, right in line with 25.5 last season, so that is its identity. Iowa State is at 15.7, down sharply from 21.1. Utah should keep sustaining drives and controlling the clock. Iowa State's dip over three games may recover somewhat at home.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    AIDEN FLORAANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
    NCAAFIowa State· -115

    Aiden Flora
    Anytime Touchdown over 0.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    Iowa State

    I’m taking Aiden Flora to score because he is Iowa State’s clearest explosive rushing threat in a game where I expect the Cyclones to remain competitive. Flora has produced 328 yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries across three games, giving him both big-play ability and demonstrated scoring production.

    Utah’s vulnerability has been the damage allowed when opponents create successful plays. That gives Flora a path to score without Iowa State needing to control the game drive after drive. The price is playable for a runner who can reach the end zone through either sustained work or one explosive carry.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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