Iowa State Cyclones at Arizona Wildcats
O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Arizona Wildcats -10.5 · Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Arizona Wildcats -10.5 -114
- Published odds
- -114
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 3-39
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 53 moves| Market | Opened Oct 18 1:02 PM | Close Sat 7:10 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Arizona Wildcats -10.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 50.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Arizona Wildcats -400 | Arizona Wildcats -375 | +25 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 18 1:02 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -400 · Iowa State Cyclones +310 |
| Oct 18 4:03 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -425 · Iowa State Cyclones +333 |
| Oct 18 5:03 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -450 · Iowa State Cyclones +350 |
| Oct 18 6:03 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +280 |
| Oct 18 7:04 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-105) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Oct 18 8:04 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Oct 18 10:04 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-112) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Oct 19 6:00 AM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Oct 19 11:31 AM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 19 12:31 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 19 1:31 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 19 6:31 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 19 7:31 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270 |
| Oct 19 9:01 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 19 9:31 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 50.5 (-120) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 19 11:25 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 21 11:32 AM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 21 12:32 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 21 1:32 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 21 5:32 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270 |
| Oct 21 6:50 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Oct 21 7:51 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270 |
| Oct 21 9:51 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-112) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270 |
| Oct 21 10:22 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Thu 9:31 AM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Thu 10:27 AM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270 |
| Thu 12:28 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 50.5 (-118) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270 |
| Thu 2:59 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 51.5 (-102) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Thu 4:29 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 51.5 (-102) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Thu 5:53 PM | Arizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-102) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Thu 8:24 PM | Arizona Wildcats -9.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-102) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Thu 9:54 PM | Arizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-102) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Thu 10:55 PM | Arizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-102) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Fri 4:45 AM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Fri 8:31 AM | Arizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Fri 12:02 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-105) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Fri 1:32 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Fri 3:33 PM | Arizona Wildcats -9.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Fri 4:39 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250 |
| Fri 5:20 PM | Arizona Wildcats -9 (-120) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260 |
| Fri 7:01 PM | Arizona Wildcats -10.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290 |
| Fri 7:30 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290 |
| Fri 9:13 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 8:30 AM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290 |
| Sat 9:07 AM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 9:41 AM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 12:54 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290 |
| Sat 1:14 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 1:24 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 1:35 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 4:16 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 4:37 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +310 |
| CLOSESat 7:10 PM | Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300 |
The read
Homecoming in Tucson, 75 degrees and clear for a 4:30 local kickoff, and No. 25 Arizona is laying 10.5 to an Iowa State team that has been pushed around by every offense with a pulse.
Start there. Against the three top-half scoring offenses on its schedule, Iowa State's defense got run through. BYU threw for 329 and ran for 177 without being sacked. Utah ran for 205, and West Virginia ran for 291. None of the four out defensive linemen showed up in the BYU box score either, so that thin front is already the baseline. The new loss is CB Beni Ngoyi, a regular in five of six games, and the secondary is exactly where Noah Fifita does his work. Fifita went 23-of-31 at BYU against a top-15 scoring defense. At West Virginia it was 16-of-23 for 341, with Chris Hunter III, Giovanni Richardson and Cole Rusk already out. Those absences are already on the tape.
Flip it over, and Iowa State can't keep pace once it has to throw. Jaylen Raynor managed 98 yards at BYU, 205 with two picks against Utah and 117 at Iowa. The Cyclones went 2-of-13, 3-of-14 and 4-of-13 on third down in those games and scored 10, 17 and 13. Four of the six expected top receivers are gone for the year. Dominic Overby, the one receiver with real downfield production, missed the last game with no update since. That leaves Aiden Flora. Flora's 212 and 194 came against bad defenses, and the good ones kept Flora under 90.
The scores back it. Arizona's 34-24 at Washington State hid a pick-six against and two missed kicks. Iowa State's 55-7 over Bowling Green leaned on two return touchdowns.
Fair warning: Arizona's schedule has been soft, with two opponents now 1-6 and 0-6 plus an FCS team, and the one good team it played, BYU, beat it. The kicking has been shaky too, and at a double-digit number one empty trip matters. Ignore the Homecoming and 'Bear Down' centennial talk; the line heard all of it.
Bottom line: Arizona's best unit meets Iowa State's worst, and Iowa State hasn't scored enough against real defenses to hang. I make it a bit more than 10.5. Modest stake.
Injuries noted
Iowa State Cyclones: Beni Ngoyi (out) — CB #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Trey Verdon (out) — DE #44 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Donovan Fitzmaurice (out) — DT #89 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Caden Crawford (out) — DE #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Ka'Mori Moore (out) — DT #95 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report
Arizona Wildcats: Giovanni Richardson (out) — WR #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Chris Hunter III (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Cole Rusk (out) — TE #14 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Dajon Hinton (out) — S #20 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Swayde Griffin (out) — CB #28 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Keona Peat (out) — OL #54 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Ezra Funa (out) — DL #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starter
6.60 Y/AJaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starting quarterback. The October 23 Iowa State game preview discusses Raynor leading the offense Saturday. Accessible dated evidence did not independently establish a team-confirmed starting designation. 2026 line: 977 passing yards, 57.4% completions, 6.60 yards per attempt, 6-4 TD-INT over 6 games.
Noah Fifita is ARIZ's confirmed starter
9.15 Y/ANoah Fifita is ARIZ's confirmed starting quarterback. Arizona's October 19 Iowa State preview identifies Fifita as its returning starting quarterback and documents 40 consecutive starts. 2026 line: 1739 passing yards, 73.2% completions, 9.15 yards per attempt, 16-4 TD-INT over 6 games.
MISMATCH
ARIZ: 303.8 pass yards a game to ISU's 174.2
303.8 VS 174.2Arizona throws for 303.8 yards a game over 6 games, up from 255.2 last season, while Iowa State has dropped to 174.2 from 221.4. Six games is a short window, but both teams moved in the same direction from a full season. Iowa State's path is to run, control the clock and keep Arizona's quarterback off the field. If the Cyclones get behind, they lack the passing volume to answer, which shapes how the second half plays out.
REPLACEMENT
Beni Ngoyi (CB) is out for ISU
OUTCB #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Trey Verdon (DE) is out for ISU
OUTDE #44 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Donovan Fitzmaurice (DT) is out for ISU
OUTDT #89 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Caden Crawford (DE) is out for ISU
OUTDE #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Ka'Mori Moore (DT) is out for ISU
OUTDT #95 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Giovanni Richardson (WR) is out for ARIZ
OUTWR #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Chris Hunter III (WR) is out for ARIZ
OUTWR #11 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Cole Rusk (TE) is out for ARIZ
OUTTE #14 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Dajon Hinton (S) is out for ARIZ
OUTS #20 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Swayde Griffin (CB) is out for ARIZ
OUTCB #28 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Keona Peat (OL) is out for ARIZ
OUTOL #54 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
Ezra Funa (DL) is out for ARIZ
OUTDL #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)
TEAM RECORD
Big 12 game: ISU 1-2, ARIZ 2-1 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the Big 12. ISU is 1-2 against it, ARIZ is 2-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, caesars, fanatics, betrivers.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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