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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM

Iowa State Cyclones at Arizona Wildcats

O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Arizona Wildcats -10.5 · Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

GARY'S PICK
Arizona -10.5
NCAAFvs Iowa State· -114

Arizona
-10.5

-114 · CASHED · ISU 3 · ARIZ 39

Iowa State

The pick & result

Published pick
Arizona Wildcats -10.5 -114
Published odds
-114
Result
Won
Final score
3-39

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 53 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 1:02 PM
Close
Sat 7:10 PM
Move
SPREADArizona Wildcats -10.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110)+1
TOTAL50.5 (-108)51.5 (-105)+1
MONEYLINEArizona Wildcats -400Arizona Wildcats -375+25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 1:02 PMArizona Wildcats -10.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -400 · Iowa State Cyclones +310
Oct 18 4:03 PMArizona Wildcats -10.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -425 · Iowa State Cyclones +333
Oct 18 5:03 PMArizona Wildcats -11 (-110)50.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -450 · Iowa State Cyclones +350
Oct 18 6:03 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -350 · Iowa State Cyclones +280
Oct 18 7:04 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-105)51.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Oct 18 8:04 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Oct 18 10:04 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-112)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Oct 19 6:00 AMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Oct 19 11:31 AMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 19 12:31 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 19 1:31 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 19 6:31 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 19 7:31 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Oct 19 9:01 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)51.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 19 9:31 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)50.5 (-120)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 19 11:25 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)50.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 21 11:32 AMArizona Wildcats -10 (-108)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 21 12:32 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 21 1:32 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 21 5:32 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Oct 21 6:50 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Oct 21 7:51 PMArizona Wildcats -10.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Oct 21 9:51 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-112)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Oct 21 10:22 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Thu 9:31 AMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-110)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Thu 10:27 AMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Thu 12:28 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)50.5 (-118)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +270
Thu 2:59 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)51.5 (-102)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Thu 4:29 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)51.5 (-102)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Thu 5:53 PMArizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112)51.5 (-102)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Thu 8:24 PMArizona Wildcats -9.5 (-110)51.5 (-102)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Thu 9:54 PMArizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112)51.5 (-102)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Thu 10:55 PMArizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112)51.5 (-102)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Fri 4:45 AMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Fri 8:31 AMArizona Wildcats -9.5 (-112)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Fri 12:02 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-105)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Fri 1:32 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Fri 3:33 PMArizona Wildcats -9.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Fri 4:39 PMArizona Wildcats -10 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -300 · Iowa State Cyclones +250
Fri 5:20 PMArizona Wildcats -9 (-120)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -325 · Iowa State Cyclones +260
Fri 7:01 PMArizona Wildcats -10.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290
Fri 7:30 PMArizona Wildcats -11 (-108)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290
Fri 9:13 PMArizona Wildcats -11 (-108)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 8:30 AMArizona Wildcats -11 (-108)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290
Sat 9:07 AMArizona Wildcats -11 (-108)51.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 9:41 AMArizona Wildcats -11 (-108)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 12:54 PMArizona Wildcats -11 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +290
Sat 1:14 PMArizona Wildcats -11 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 1:24 PMArizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110)51.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 1:35 PMArizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 4:16 PMArizona Wildcats -11.5 (-108)51.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 4:37 PMArizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300
Sat 7:00 PMArizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110)51.5 (-108)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +310
CLOSESat 7:10 PMArizona Wildcats -11.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Arizona Wildcats -375 · Iowa State Cyclones +300

The read

Homecoming in Tucson, 75 degrees and clear for a 4:30 local kickoff, and No. 25 Arizona is laying 10.5 to an Iowa State team that has been pushed around by every offense with a pulse.

Start there. Against the three top-half scoring offenses on its schedule, Iowa State's defense got run through. BYU threw for 329 and ran for 177 without being sacked. Utah ran for 205, and West Virginia ran for 291. None of the four out defensive linemen showed up in the BYU box score either, so that thin front is already the baseline. The new loss is CB Beni Ngoyi, a regular in five of six games, and the secondary is exactly where Noah Fifita does his work. Fifita went 23-of-31 at BYU against a top-15 scoring defense. At West Virginia it was 16-of-23 for 341, with Chris Hunter III, Giovanni Richardson and Cole Rusk already out. Those absences are already on the tape.

Flip it over, and Iowa State can't keep pace once it has to throw. Jaylen Raynor managed 98 yards at BYU, 205 with two picks against Utah and 117 at Iowa. The Cyclones went 2-of-13, 3-of-14 and 4-of-13 on third down in those games and scored 10, 17 and 13. Four of the six expected top receivers are gone for the year. Dominic Overby, the one receiver with real downfield production, missed the last game with no update since. That leaves Aiden Flora. Flora's 212 and 194 came against bad defenses, and the good ones kept Flora under 90.

The scores back it. Arizona's 34-24 at Washington State hid a pick-six against and two missed kicks. Iowa State's 55-7 over Bowling Green leaned on two return touchdowns.

Fair warning: Arizona's schedule has been soft, with two opponents now 1-6 and 0-6 plus an FCS team, and the one good team it played, BYU, beat it. The kicking has been shaky too, and at a double-digit number one empty trip matters. Ignore the Homecoming and 'Bear Down' centennial talk; the line heard all of it.

Bottom line: Arizona's best unit meets Iowa State's worst, and Iowa State hasn't scored enough against real defenses to hang. I make it a bit more than 10.5. Modest stake.

Injuries noted

Iowa State Cyclones: Beni Ngoyi (out) — CB #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Trey Verdon (out) — DE #44 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Donovan Fitzmaurice (out) — DT #89 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Caden Crawford (out) — DE #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Ka'Mori Moore (out) — DT #95 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report

Arizona Wildcats: Giovanni Richardson (out) — WR #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Chris Hunter III (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Cole Rusk (out) — TE #14 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Dajon Hinton (out) — S #20 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Swayde Griffin (out) — CB #28 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Keona Peat (out) — OL #54 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Ezra Funa (out) — DL #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starter

    6.60 Y/A

    Jaylen Raynor is ISU's projected starting quarterback. The October 23 Iowa State game preview discusses Raynor leading the offense Saturday. Accessible dated evidence did not independently establish a team-confirmed starting designation. 2026 line: 977 passing yards, 57.4% completions, 6.60 yards per attempt, 6-4 TD-INT over 6 games.

  • Noah Fifita is ARIZ's confirmed starter

    9.15 Y/A

    Noah Fifita is ARIZ's confirmed starting quarterback. Arizona's October 19 Iowa State preview identifies Fifita as its returning starting quarterback and documents 40 consecutive starts. 2026 line: 1739 passing yards, 73.2% completions, 9.15 yards per attempt, 16-4 TD-INT over 6 games.

MISMATCH

  • ARIZ: 303.8 pass yards a game to ISU's 174.2

    303.8 VS 174.2

    Arizona throws for 303.8 yards a game over 6 games, up from 255.2 last season, while Iowa State has dropped to 174.2 from 221.4. Six games is a short window, but both teams moved in the same direction from a full season. Iowa State's path is to run, control the clock and keep Arizona's quarterback off the field. If the Cyclones get behind, they lack the passing volume to answer, which shapes how the second half plays out.

REPLACEMENT

  • Beni Ngoyi (CB) is out for ISU

    OUT

    CB #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Trey Verdon (DE) is out for ISU

    OUT

    DE #44 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Donovan Fitzmaurice (DT) is out for ISU

    OUT

    DT #89 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Caden Crawford (DE) is out for ISU

    OUT

    DE #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Ka'Mori Moore (DT) is out for ISU

    OUT

    DT #95 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Giovanni Richardson (WR) is out for ARIZ

    OUT

    WR #5 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Chris Hunter III (WR) is out for ARIZ

    OUT

    WR #11 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Cole Rusk (TE) is out for ARIZ

    OUT

    TE #14 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Dajon Hinton (S) is out for ARIZ

    OUT

    S #20 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Swayde Griffin (CB) is out for ARIZ

    OUT

    CB #28 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Keona Peat (OL) is out for ARIZ

    OUT

    OL #54 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Ezra Funa (DL) is out for ARIZ

    OUT

    DL #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

TEAM RECORD

  • Big 12 game: ISU 1-2, ARIZ 2-1 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big 12. ISU is 1-2 against it, ARIZ is 2-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, caesars, fanatics, betrivers.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

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