It's Halloween at Nippert. Unbeaten No. 6 Utah flies about 1,450 miles east to face a Cincinnati team still riding its upset of then-Texas Tech, with 71 degrees and dry skies at kickoff. When I project this one from the box scores, Utah wins by about a touchdown, right on the number. That means the hook and the spot decide it. The hook matters. Utah's last two wins came by 3 at 2-5 Colorado and by 8 at home against Houston. Cincinnati is 5-0 at home and won its four FBS home games by 19, 4, 5 and 13. A one-touchdown Utah win still cashes. Utah's offense is fading. Scoring has slid from 41 to 27 to 21 over three games, with 6 giveaways in that stretch, 5 of them Devon Dampier interceptions. Morgan Scalley said this week, "We can't turn the ball over." Cincinnati forced 3 takeaways against Texas Tech and is +5 in turnovers against FBS teams. Utah is 6-0 against FBS teams and dead even in turnovers. The schedules aren't close. Leaving out their games against Utah, the Utes' FBS opponents are 19-18. Cincinnati's are 28-10. Houston is the best team Utah has seen, and the Utes outgained them by just 40 yards at home. Cincinnati's ground game is rolling. Cole Tabb ran for 173 yards on 16 carries against Texas Tech, after 118 at West Virginia and 124 against Kansas State. Gi'Bran Payne is back after 108 against Boston College and 126 against K-State. And Utah sits between Houston and BYU, with Scalley fielding "letdown" questions all week. The risks are real. Center Taran Tyo started all six games with a lineup on file, and he's out. Utah's run defense hasn't allowed more than 138 rushing yards to anyone. Cincinnati's record also runs ahead of its box scores: the Texas Tech win was even on yards, 437 to 435, and Arizona beat the Bearcats 34-7 while holding them to 89 rushing yards. Without nose tackle Josh Hough, Cincinnati gave up 208 rushing yards to Texas Tech, and Dampier ran for 150 last week. If Utah protects the ball, that's how this becomes a two-touchdown game. It's a lean, not a hammer. I'll take the points at home.
It's Halloween at Nippert. Unbeaten No. 6 Utah flies about 1,450 miles east to face a Cincinnati team still riding its upset of then-Texas Tech, with 71 degrees and dry skies at kickoff. When I project this one from the box scores, Utah wins by about a touchdown, right on the number. That means the hook and the spot decide it.
The hook matters. Utah's last two wins came by 3 at 2-5 Colorado and by 8 at home against Houston. Cincinnati is 5-0 at home and won its four FBS home games by 19, 4, 5 and 13. A one-touchdown Utah win still cashes.
Utah's offense is fading. Scoring has slid from 41 to 27 to 21 over three games, with 6 giveaways in that stretch, 5 of them Devon Dampier interceptions. Morgan Scalley said this week, "We can't turn the ball over." Cincinnati forced 3 takeaways against Texas Tech and is +5 in turnovers against FBS teams. Utah is 6-0 against FBS teams and dead even in turnovers.
The schedules aren't close. Leaving out their games against Utah, the Utes' FBS opponents are 19-18. Cincinnati's are 28-10. Houston is the best team Utah has seen, and the Utes outgained them by just 40 yards at home.
Cincinnati's ground game is rolling. Cole Tabb ran for 173 yards on 16 carries against Texas Tech, after 118 at West Virginia and 124 against Kansas State. Gi'Bran Payne is back after 108 against Boston College and 126 against K-State. And Utah sits between Houston and BYU, with Scalley fielding "letdown" questions all week.
The risks are real. Center Taran Tyo started all six games with a lineup on file, and he's out. Utah's run defense hasn't allowed more than 138 rushing yards to anyone. Cincinnati's record also runs ahead of its box scores: the Texas Tech win was even on yards, 437 to 435, and Arizona beat the Bearcats 34-7 while holding them to 89 rushing yards. Without nose tackle Josh Hough, Cincinnati gave up 208 rushing yards to Texas Tech, and Dampier ran for 150 last week. If Utah protects the ball, that's how this becomes a two-touchdown game.
It's a lean, not a hammer. I'll take the points at home.
Cincinnati +7.5