Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 PM

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Cincinnati Bearcats

O/U 57.5 · SPREAD Texas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 · Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

GARY'S PICK
Cincinnati +11.5
NCAAFvs Texas Tech· -110

Cincinnati
+11.5

-110 · CASHED · TTU 24 · CIN 37

Texas Tech

The pick & result

Published pick
Cincinnati Bearcats +11.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Won
Final score
24-37

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 49 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 1:02 PM
Close
Sat 11:53 AM
Move
SPREADTexas Tech Red Raiders -12 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)−1
TOTAL55.5 (-110)57.5 (-112)+2
MONEYLINETexas Tech Red Raiders -450Texas Tech Red Raiders -450Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 1:02 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -12 (-110)55.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 18 4:03 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-110)55.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 18 5:03 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 18 6:03 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 18 9:04 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 18 10:04 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 19 6:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +320
Oct 19 11:31 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 19 12:31 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 19 1:31 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 20 12:55 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 20 6:31 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 20 8:38 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)56.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 20 12:15 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-112)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 20 1:15 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 20 3:17 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 20 3:47 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 20 4:17 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 20 7:47 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 21 6:01 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 21 10:01 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 21 11:02 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 21 12:02 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Oct 21 3:02 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-115)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Oct 21 11:22 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Thu 11:58 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Thu 12:58 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Thu 2:59 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Thu 3:29 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Thu 3:59 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Thu 4:29 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Thu 5:23 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-110)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
Thu 6:53 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)57.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +350
Fri 3:02 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-110)57.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 7:30 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 8:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)56.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +350
Sat 8:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)56.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +350
Sat 8:30 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +350
Sat 9:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -12 (-112)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 9:07 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-110)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 9:11 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)57.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 9:41 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)57.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 9:51 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-110)57.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 10:21 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-112)57.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +360
Sat 10:32 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 (-108)57.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Sat 11:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-110)57.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Sat 11:13 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-118)57.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Sat 11:23 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-110)57.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340
Sat 11:33 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -10.5 (-110)57.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -425 · Cincinnati Bearcats +333
CLOSESat 11:53 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -11 (-108)57.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -450 · Cincinnati Bearcats +340

The read

It's a noon kickoff at Nippert. No. 8 Texas Tech is making its first trip to Cincinnati, with the Sorsby lawsuit hanging over the week. Tune that out, because the line already heard all of it. What matters here is that the Red Raiders' scoreboard looks better than their football.

Tech is 6-0, but look at how it got there. At Colorado, the Buffaloes outgained Tech, and Tech won 29-7 on four interceptions, one returned for a score. Against Sam Houston, two touchdowns came on interception returns. Tech faced two real offenses, and both outgained it. Oregon State threw for 417, and Houston ran for 176 and threw for 282 in a two-point game. That's a good team, not one that beats a decent opponent by two touchdowns on the road. Takeaways don't carry over from week to week, and Cincinnati doesn't hand them out: JC French IV hasn't thrown an interception all season.

The Bearcats' path is through the air. Tech's run defense is elite and held Arizona State to 35 rushing yards. Its pass defense leaks: 380 yards to Arizona State, 417 to Oregon State. French just threw for 389 at West Virginia. Behind that pass defense, Tech's safeties are banged up. Peyton Morgan has played every game and is questionable, Maddox Quiller is questionable too, and Brenden Jordan missed last week with no word on why.

The real risk is a repeat of Arizona, where Cincinnati ran 28 times for 74 yards, scored 7 and got buried. Satterfield calls Tech's front the best Cincinnati has faced, and Josh Hough, the Bearcats' top pass rusher, is out. If the run game stalls and French faces third-and-long all day, this gets ugly.

What doesn't matter: Cameron Dickey's absence, since J'Koby Williams has been the better back. Gi'Bran Payne's ankle, since Cole Tabb has 448 yards on 49 carries. And every revenge storyline.

The 11.5 is priced off Tech's scores. The way these teams move and stop the ball says the gap is smaller. Take Cincinnati and the points.

Injuries noted

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Jalen Jones (out) — Wide receiver; October 23 availability list places him out. Condition unspecified.; Cameron Dickey (out) — Running back; listed out October 23. Condition unspecified in that report.; Donte Lee Jr. (out) — Wide receiver; listed out October 23. Condition unspecified in that report.; S'Vioarean Martin (out) — Cornerback; listed out October 23. Condition unspecified.; Hunter Zambrano (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out October 23. Condition unspecified.; Elias Gillen (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out October 23. Condition unspecified.; Peyton Morgan (questionable) — Safety; listed questionable October 23. Condition unspecified.; Maddox Quiller (questionable) — Safety; listed questionable October 23. Condition unspecified.; Jamond Mathis (probable) — Outside linebacker; listed probable October 23. Condition unspecified.; Patrick McMath (probable) — Offensive lineman; listed probable October 23. Condition unspecified.; Jordan Church (probable) — Offensive lineman; listed probable October 23. Condition unspecified.; Howard Sampson (probable) — Offensive lineman; listed probable October 23. Condition unspecified.

Cincinnati Bearcats: DaMari Witherspoon (out) — Tight end; listed out in the October 22 report for Texas Tech. Condition unspecified.; Josh Hough (out) — Defensive lineman; listed out October 22. Satterfield identified a lower-leg injury October 20.; Nathan Nunn (out) — Defensive lineman; listed out October 22. Condition unspecified.; Gi'Bran Payne (questionable) — Running back; October 22 report lists him questionable after a lower-leg injury against West Virginia.; CJ Crite (questionable) — Safety; listed questionable October 22. Condition unspecified.; Devyn Zahursky (questionable) — Tight end; listed questionable October 22. Condition unspecified.; Montay Weedon (probable) — Inside linebacker; listed probable October 22. Condition unspecified.; Gavin Grover (probable) — Tight end; listed probable October 22. Condition unspecified.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Will Hammond is TTU's confirmed starter

    7.94 Y/A

    Will Hammond is TTU's confirmed starting quarterback. Texas Tech's October 19 game-seven depth chart lists Hammond first at quarterback for Cincinnati. 2026 line: 1334 passing yards, 68.5% completions, 7.94 yards per attempt, 6-5 TD-INT over 6 games.

  • JC French IV is CIN's confirmed starter

    8.75 Y/A

    JC French IV is CIN's confirmed starting quarterback. Cincinnati's October 19 game-week depth chart lists French first at quarterback for Texas Tech. 2026 line: 1321 passing yards, 70.9% completions, 8.75 yards per attempt, 9-0 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

  • TTU: 84.2 rushing yards allowed per game to CIN's 131.2

    47 YPG

    TTU is at 84.2 rushing yards allowed per game over 6 games; CIN is at 131.2 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • TTU: 17.7 points allowed per game to CIN's 26.8

    9.2 PPG

    TTU is at 17.7 points allowed per game over 6 games; CIN is at 26.8 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season TTU was at 11.8 over 14 games and CIN at 25.6 over 13 games.

  • TTU @ CIN carries a 56.5 market total

    56.5

    Texas Tech at Cincinnati is posted at 56.5, 5 points above the slate median, so the market expects a bit more scoring than an average game. Nothing on the sheet explains it. It cracks if either offense settles for field goals or the game slows into long, clock-eating drives. With a modest gap, one or two empty trips can swing it.

TURNOVERS

  • CIN: 0.33 turnovers committed per game to TTU's 1.5

    1.17 TO

    Cincinnati has cut turnovers from 1.08 a game last season to 0.33 over six games, while Texas Tech is giving it away more than last year's 1.29. Cincinnati's number is likely to rise some. At home, Cincinnati's care with the ball against a Texas Tech team that keeps handing it over tilts field position toward Cincinnati.

  • TTU: 2 takeaways per game to CIN's 1

    1 TO

    Texas Tech forces 2 takeaways a game over six games, and Cincinnati forces 1 over six. Turnovers swing a lot from game to game, so a one-a-game gap is small and likely to narrow. Texas Tech has the slight edge in creating extra possessions, which works best as a tiebreaker.

MISMATCH

  • CIN: 0.33 turnovers a game to TTU's 1.5

    0.33 VS 1.5

    Cincinnati has turned it over 0.33 times a game over 6 games, well below its 1.08 last season. Texas Tech is at 1.5, near its 1.29 last year. Cincinnati's drop over six games is likely to rise some, while Texas Tech's number looks closer to who it is. Texas Tech has to take care of the football on the road, because extra possessions for Cincinnati can swing a close game.

REPLACEMENT

  • Cameron Dickey (RB) is out for TTU

    OUT

    Running back; condition unspecified in the latest report. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

  • Donte Lee Jr. (WR) is out for TTU

    OUT

    Wide receiver; condition unspecified in the latest report. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

  • Elias Gillen (OL) is out for TTU

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; condition unspecified. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

  • Hunter Zambrano (OL) is out for TTU

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; condition unspecified. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

  • Jalen Jones (WR) is out for TTU

    OUT

    Wide receiver; downgraded from doubtful October 22 and remains out. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

  • S'Vioarean Martin (CB) is out for TTU

    OUT

    Cornerback; condition unspecified. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

  • DaMari Witherspoon (TE) is out for CIN

    OUT

    Tight end; condition unspecified in the October 23 update. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

  • Josh Hough (DL) is out for CIN

    OUT

    Defensive lineman; October 23 update lists him out. Satterfield reported a lower-leg injury October 20. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23) WATCH: Head Coach Scott Satterfield, Players Preview Texas Tech Game (2026-10-20)

  • Nathan Nunn (DL) is out for CIN

    OUT

    Defensive lineman; condition unspecified. Texas Tech at Cincinnati Injury Report — Week 8; update posted October 23 at 7:00 PM PT (2026-10-23)

TEAM RECORD

  • Big 12 game: TTU 3-0, CIN 1-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big 12. TTU is 3-0 against it, CIN is 1-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day