Sports picks for Tuesday, October 6, 2026

CIN: 24.3 points per game to MIA's 11.5

Cincinnati scores 24.3 a game and Miami 11.5, a wide gap in putting points up. The Bengals were at 24.4 last season, so they look exactly like themselves, while Miami has fallen hard from 20.4 over four games. That Dolphins number is more likely to climb than stay this low. Cincinnati's scoring is the steady piece here, Miami's is the one to expect movement in.

DAL: 81.3% red-zone scoring rate to TB's 41.7%

TB is at 41.7% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; DAL is at 81.3% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 54% over 17 games and DAL at 56.9% over 17 games.

DAL: 1.5 sacks taken per game to TB's 4

TB is at 4 sacks taken per game over 4 games; DAL is at 1.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 2.38 over 17 games and DAL at 2.38 over 17 games.

SF: 57.5% third-down conversion rate to SEA's 31.1%

San Francisco converts 57.5% on third down and Seattle 31.1%, so the Niners are keeping drives alive far more. Last season San Francisco was at 49.8% and Seattle at 39.8%, so both four-game rates have moved to extremes. Both should drift back toward those marks. San Francisco extending drives is real, just probably not at this level.

DET: 287.3 team passing yards per game to ARI's 194.3

Detroit throws for 287.3 a game and Arizona for 194.3, so the Lions carry the bigger passing attack. Detroit was at 253.1 last season and Arizona at 232.6, so the Lions are up and the Cardinals well down over four games. Arizona's drop is the more likely to recover. Detroit's passing game is the one dictating in this matchup.

CHI: 47.4% third-down conversion rate to GB's 26.1%

Chicago converts 47.4% on third down against Green Bay's 26.1%, so the Bears are extending drives and the Packers are not. Chicago was at 42.7% last season, close to now, while Green Bay has fallen from 48.8% over four games. The Packers' rate looks most likely to rebound. Chicago keeping drives alive is the more believable part of this gap.

CIN: 277.5 team passing yards per game to MIA's 163.5

Cincinnati passes for 277.5 a game while Miami is at 163.5, so the Bengals are the air-first offense here. Cincinnati was at 235.6 last season and Miami at 180.5, so both have moved in opposite directions over four games. Miami's drop is the more likely of the two to recover. In this spot, Cincinnati's passing game is the engine and Miami has to find yards another way.

HOU: 264.8 team passing yards per game to TEN's 172.3

Houston throws for 264.8 a game against Tennessee's 172.3, so the Texans are the team doing damage through the air. Houston was at 218.1 last season, a real jump over four games, while Tennessee's 166.1 last season says a low passing number is normal for them. The Titans' figure looks stable and Houston's could cool some. Houston is the side more likely to dictate through the pass in this matchup.

DAL: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to TB's 2.25

Tampa Bay is giving the ball away 2.25 times a game while Dallas is at 0.5, a big swing in who wastes possessions. Both numbers come from four games, and last season Tampa Bay was at 0.94 and Dallas at 1.24, so each side is well off its norm. Turnover rates tend to drift back toward the middle, which makes this gap likely to shrink. A bettor can view the Bucs' giveaways as the most fragile number on the sheet.

CHI: 36:36 time of possession per game to GB's 26:46

Chicago holds the ball 36:36 a game to Green Bay's 26:46, so the Bears are controlling the clock. Last season both teams were near even, Chicago at 30:59 and Green Bay at 29:48, so four games have stretched this a lot. Expect it to narrow. If Chicago's run game shows up, the Bears are the side more likely to shorten the game.

MIN: 12.8 points allowed per game to NO's 32

Minnesota allows 12.8 points a game while New Orleans gives up 32, a defensive gap that frames this game. Last season Minnesota was at 19.6 and New Orleans at 22.5, so the Vikings look better than usual and the Saints far worse over four games. Both should drift toward their norms. Minnesota is the steadier defense here, though 32 a game for the Saints is probably not who they are.

LV: 28.8 points per game to NE's 16.3

Las Vegas scores 28.8 a game and New England 16.3 over four games, and last season the roles were flipped: Vegas at 14.2, New England at 28.8. That is a huge reversal on a small sample for both teams. Some of it likely comes back toward last season's levels. A bettor should weigh how much four games can really overturn a full season before trusting the Raiders as the better scoring team.

Lamar Jackson (QB) is questionable for BAL

The tag says questionable, but the reporting says Jackson is unlikely to face the Falcons on Sunday, and the injury is a rarer type of ankle sprain that could cost him multiple games. He is the quarterback and the center of Baltimore's offense, so losing him changes how this game gets played. The sheet does not name a backup. A bettor should price this game as if Jackson sits and treat any lines posted before his status settles with caution.

CIN: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 1

Cincinnati's pass rush is getting home 3.5 times a game over four games, while Miami's has managed one sack a game. Sacks depend heavily on the opposing line and how often a team drops back, and the sheet doesn't say who either faced. In this matchup, Cincinnati has the clearer path to drive-killing pressure, which is worth weighing on Miami's passing volume and drive totals.

MIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2

Minnesota is averaging four sacks a game through four games, double New Orleans' two. Sack totals depend on the opposing line and quarterback, and four games doesn't settle who either defense has faced. Paired with the Vikings' third-down numbers, the pressure points toward the Saints facing long-yardage situations, which affects their drive and passing outlooks.

MIN: 22.6% third downs allowed to NO's 47.6%

Minnesota has let opponents convert just 22.6% of third downs over four games, while New Orleans has allowed 47.6%. That Minnesota number is elite and probably comes down a bit over a longer run, and New Orleans should improve some too. The gap is wide enough that Minnesota is likely to win more drive-extending downs here, which leans toward longer Vikings possessions.

CHI: 23.7% third downs allowed to GB's 48.2%

Chicago has held opponents to a 23.7% third-down rate over four games, while Green Bay has allowed 48.2%. Both are extreme marks for four games, so expect each to drift toward the middle. Here the Bears defense should get off the field more often than the Packers defense does, which favors Chicago in time of possession and drive count.

LAR: 145.5 passing yards allowed per game to BUF's 256.3

The Rams have held passers to 145.5 yards a game through four games, while Buffalo has given up 256.3. Without knowing whom they faced or how often opponents threw, some of that Rams number may reflect game script as much as coverage. In this matchup, Buffalo's leaky pass defense is the more trustworthy signal for Rams passing props and the total.

BAL: 0.5 turnovers a game to ATL's 2

Baltimore has turned it over 0.5 times a game through 4 games, Atlanta 2. Last season the order was flipped, with Baltimore at 1.35 and Atlanta at 1.06. Turnover rates swing a lot over four games and tend to settle, so neither number is a fixed trait. Atlanta at home has to protect the ball to avoid giving Baltimore extra short fields.

SF: 57.5% on third down to SEA's 31.1%

San Francisco has converted 57.5% of its third downs through 4 games, Seattle just 31.1%. Last season they were at 49.8% and 39.8%, so both have moved toward the extremes over a short stretch. Expect some pullback on each side. Third downs decide who keeps drives alive, so if the gap holds even partly, San Francisco should own more of the possession battle in Seattle.

DET: 287.3 pass yards a game to ARI's 194.3

Detroit is throwing for 287.3 yards a game through 4 games, up from 253.1 last season, while Arizona sits at 194.3, down from 232.6. Arizona's drop is the bigger surprise and the more likely number to move back up. Through four games, Detroit has the passing edge by a wide margin. Arizona at home has to keep Detroit's offense off the field to keep this close.

CHI: 196.3 rush yards a game to GB's 58

Chicago is running for 196.3 yards a game through 4 games, and Green Bay is at just 58. Last season the gap was far smaller, 144.5 to 119.8, so Green Bay's ground game has collapsed and Chicago's has surged. Green Bay's 58 is the number most likely to climb back toward its old level. For this game, Chicago can try to grind clock on the ground, and Green Bay has to find a way to stay ahead of the sticks without much run game.

MIN: 12.8 points allowed a game to NO's 32

Minnesota's defense has allowed 12.8 points a game through 4 games, while New Orleans has given up 32. Both are well off last season, when Minnesota allowed 19.6 and New Orleans 22.5, so each team has pushed further to an extreme. Numbers that far from the prior year usually pull back some over a longer run. The shape of this game still points to New Orleans needing to hide a leaky defense with long, ball-control drives.

CIN: 277.5 pass yards a game to MIA's 163.5

Cincinnati is throwing for 277.5 yards a game through 4 games against Miami's 163.5. Cincinnati is up from 235.6 last season, and Miami has dropped from 180.5, so both teams have moved in opposite directions. Four games is a short window, and Miami's dip is the likelier number to climb back. In this spot, Miami needs to lean on something other than the pass to keep up, which frames how the scoring might split.

HOU: 264.8 pass yards a game to TEN's 172.3

Houston is throwing for 264.8 yards a game through 4 games, up from 218.1 last season, while Tennessee sits at 172.3, close to its 166.1 from last year. Tennessee's number looks like who they are; Houston's jump is the newer and less proven piece. If Houston's passing holds near this level, Tennessee has to shorten the game and keep the ball. Bettors can think about whether Tennessee's offense can keep pace if Houston moves it through the air.

DAL: 1.5 sacks taken a game to TB's 4

Tampa Bay's quarterback has gone down 4 times a game through 4 games, while Dallas has kept theirs clean at 1.5. Both teams sat at 2.38 last season, so this split is a four-game story, and Tampa's line is the side that moved most. A four-game spike like that tends to drift back toward the old number. For this game, the question is whether the Dallas rush can keep Tampa's protection under that same pressure, which shapes how many drives stall for the visitors.

MIN: 18.2% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 66.7%

Opponents have scored touchdowns on just 18.2% of red-zone trips against Minnesota over four games, compared with 66.7% against New Orleans. Red-zone rates are built on few trips and are among the jumpiest numbers in football, so Minnesota's mark will very likely rise. Bettors can lean on the direction of the gap, but expect it to narrow, especially for touchdown-scorer and totals angles.

PIT: 2 takeaways per game to IND's 0.5

IND is at 0.5 takeaways per game over 4 games; PIT is at 2 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

JAX: 2 takeaways per game to PHI's 0.5

Jacksonville has forced two turnovers a game through four games, and Philadelphia's defense has forced just 0.5. Takeaways swing a lot week to week, so four games is a thin base for either number, and both are likely to drift toward the middle. For this game, Jacksonville's edge in creating extra possessions is real so far, but bettors shouldn't price it as a stable trait yet.

TB: 78.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 150.3

Tampa Bay has kept runners in check through four games, while Dallas has been gashed for 150.3 a game on the ground. Four games is a small sample, and the sheet doesn't say who either defense faced, so schedule could be inflating both numbers. The Dallas side looks like the bigger story: a defense giving up that much on the ground invites an opponent to lean on the run, which matters for game script and rushing props in this spot.

Baker Mayfield (QB) is out for TB

Mayfield is the starting quarterback, so Tampa Bay heads to Dallas without the player who runs its offense. The report from Oct 5 lists him as out with no injury or timeline given, and out means he will not play this game. With no backup named here, the bigger point for a bettor is that the Bucs' passing game is the unit most changed by this, so lean on how the line has moved since the news broke.

Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) is out for TB

Winfield is a starting safety, and Todd Bowles said he was diagnosed Monday with a slight rib fracture. The stated timeline is 2-to-4 weeks, so Dallas will not face him Thursday and he could miss more after that. Losing a safety affects the back end of the Bucs' defense, which matters most against downfield throws. Factor his absence into how you view the Dallas passing game in this spot.

Drew Shelton (OT) is doubtful for DAL

Doubtful means Shelton is very unlikely to suit up against Tampa Bay. Schottenheimer said Tuesday he is week-to-week with a hamstring injury, so this is more than a one-game absence and he could miss several. The sheet does not name his replacement, so check who Dallas lines up at tackle and how that holds up against Tampa Bay's pass rush.

DeMarvion Overshown (LB) is doubtful for DAL

Doubtful usually means a player will not suit up, and Schottenheimer calling Overshown a long shot on Tuesday makes that even clearer for Thursday night against Tampa Bay. A hamstring on a short week is a tough turnaround for a linebacker who relies on speed. Bettors should plan for Dallas to be without him and think about how the Cowboys' second level holds up against the Bucs without one of its starters.

Reese Taylor (CB) is out for MIA

Taylor is a Miami cornerback ruled out with a quad injury for the Week 5 game against Cincinnati, reported Monday. Out means he will not play. Losing a corner against an opponent that throws the ball leaves the Dolphins with less depth in coverage, so that is the matchup to think about when you look at Bengals passing numbers.

Braiden McGregor (DE) is out for NYJ

McGregor is a Jets defensive end who suffered a season-ending pectoral injury in Sunday's loss to the Bears. He is done for the year, so the Jets have lost a pass rusher for good. With no replacement named on the sheet, the question for Cleveland's offense is whether its quarterback gets more time to throw.

Adonai Mitchell (WR) is doubtful for NYJ

Doubtful means the Jets expect Mitchell to sit against Cleveland. The report lists no injury or practice detail, so his workload is the only thing in question. Plan your Jets passing bets as if he will not play, and check the final inactives before betting anything that depends on him.

Breece Hall (RB) is doubtful for NYJ

Doubtful means the Jets expect Hall to miss the Cleveland game. No injury detail came with the listing. If he sits, the Jets will hand his carries to their other running backs, so any Jets rushing number posted on the assumption that he plays is likely to look stale by kickoff.

Arden Key (DE) is out for IND

Colts coach Shane Steichen said Tuesday that Key is expected to miss three to four weeks with a hamstring injury, so the trip to Pittsburgh is the first of several games without him. Three to four weeks is a timeline, and hamstrings can run long, so plan on him missing more than this one game. The sheet does not name who takes his snaps at defensive end, so the Colts pass rush against the Steelers is the part of this game with the least to go on.

Jamel Dean (CB) is doubtful for PIT

Dean is a Pittsburgh cornerback who left Thursday's 27-24 loss to the Browns with an ankle injury, and the report says he could miss a couple of weeks. Doubtful against the Colts means he will most likely sit. That thins the Steelers' secondary, so the Colts' passing game is the spot this news touches most.

Braxton Berrios (WR) is out for NYG

Berrios is done for the season. He announced Tuesday he will have foot surgery, so the Giants play Washington and every game after without him. The sheet does not say who takes his snaps, so the Giants' depth chart at receiver is the thing to check before backing any Giants pass catcher.

Marcus Mariota (QB) is doubtful for WSH

Mariota has an MCL sprain in his right knee, suffered when he was knocked out of Sunday's loss to the Colts in London, with the diagnosis reported Oct 5. Doubtful means he is unlikely to play against the Giants, so Washington should be planning to go without him at quarterback. The sheet does not name who takes the snaps if he sits, so check the final injury report and any starter announcement before trusting a line built around him.

Caleb Williams (QB) is out for CHI

Williams is Chicago's starting quarterback and is out for the Green Bay game with a hamstring injury. Ben Johnson said Monday he will not practice this week and is week-to-week, which points to more than one missed game. The backup quarterback is not named here, so the Bears' offense is the unknown in this matchup.

Rashawn Slater (OT) is out for LAC

Slater sprained his ankle Sunday against Seattle, a high-ankle sprain that usually costs 4-to-6 weeks. Out means the Chargers will play Denver without their starting tackle, so the quarterback's protection on that side depends on a backup. If you are pricing this game, a protection downgrade against a pass rush is the spot to think about, and his absence lasts beyond this week.

Pat Bryant (WR) is doubtful for DEN

Bryant hurt his right ankle, and Monday's MRI came back good enough that the Broncos believe he avoided a long-term injury. Doubtful still means he is unlikely to suit up at the Chargers this week. The good scan points to a short absence, so his status could improve as the week goes on, and Denver's other receivers are the ones to look at if he sits.

Rock Ya-Sin (CB) is doubtful for DET

Ya-Sin's hamstring is expected to keep him out of the Week 5 game at Arizona. Doubtful means the Lions should plan without him at cornerback. The fact sheet does not say who moves up, so the backup cornerback's matchup against Arizona's receivers is the part of this game to keep an eye on.

Marques Sigle (S) is doubtful for SF

Sigle hurt his ankle, a high-ankle injury, in Sunday's 24-14 win over the Broncos and is expected to miss multiple weeks. Doubtful means San Francisco should plan to play Seattle without him at safety. Because the injury runs past this week, the backup safety's role is a multi-game story, and the 49ers' secondary depth is the thing to watch.

Durham Smythe (TE) is out for BAL

Smythe tore his Achilles, and an MRI on Monday confirmed it. He needs surgery, which ends his season. Baltimore goes to Atlanta without him and will spread his tight end snaps among the other tight ends on the roster. Since this injury is settled, the market should already reflect it, so there is no late-news edge here.

CIN: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to MIA's 16.7%

Cincinnati has turned most of its fourth-down tries into first downs through 4 games, while Miami has come up short on almost all of theirs. Fourth-down attempts are few per game, so a 4-game sample swings hard on one or two snaps. Last season tells the story better: Cincinnati converted 70% and Miami 47.8%, so the Bengals' edge looks real while Miami's number should climb back. In close spots near midfield, Cincinnati is the side more likely to go for it and get it.

TB: 32.7% third downs allowed to DAL's 52.3%

Tampa Bay has let opponents convert 32.7% of third downs over four games, while Dallas has allowed 52.3%. Dallas allowing more than half its third downs is a red flag even in a four-game sample. Tampa Bay's offense should find chances to extend drives here, so lean on that when looking at Bucs drive length and scoring props.

Kyle Juszczyk (FB) is doubtful for SF

Juszczyk is believed to have sprained his right knee in Sunday's 24-14 win over the Broncos, and the early word is he likely misses several weeks. Doubtful on a multi-week injury usually means he does not play at Seattle. Losing the fullback can change how San Francisco lines up in the run game, so watch for more two-tight-end looks and judge rushing props with that in mind.

BUF @ LAR carries a 54.5 market total

At 54.5, the market expects this to be a shootout, with both offenses moving the ball and touchdowns coming in bunches. Being 11 points above the 43.5 slate median means the price assumes scoring on most drives, not a game decided by field goals. For it to crack, one defense has to force punts early or a couple of drives have to stall in the red zone. If the opening possessions trade punts, the over gets harder fast.

NO: 80% red-zone scoring rate to MIN's 50%

MIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; NO is at 80% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season MIN was at 56.9% over 17 games and NO at 44.4% over 17 games.

Jayden Daniels (QB) is questionable for WSH

Questionable means Daniels could go either way against the Giants. No injury detail came with the listing, so the clearest signal will come from practice reports later this week. Washington's side, total and quarterback props all depend on his status, which makes this a game to wait on until his status is known.

Padres 7-1 in Nick Pivetta's last 8 starts

San Diego has won seven of Pivetta's last eight starts, including the last six in a row. Eight starts is a short stretch, and with no runs allowed or opponent detail here, it is hard to split the credit between his arm and the lineup behind him. Team records behind one pitcher tend to cool off. Against Milwaukee, use the streak as a prompt to check how Pivetta is actually pitching, and price the game on that.

DAL: 30.5 points per game to TB's 19

TB is at 19 points per game over 4 games; DAL is at 30.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 22.4 over 17 games and DAL at 27.7 over 17 games.

IND: 75% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 44.4%

Indianapolis is finishing drives with touchdowns far more often than Pittsburgh through 4 games. Both have moved from last season: the Colts were at 65.2% and the Steelers at 58.8%, so Indy is running hot and Pittsburgh cold. Red-zone rates bounce around over a month, and both should drift back toward last season. In a game where Pittsburgh is at home, expect the Steelers' red-zone finishing to be closer to last year than to this start.

DET: 5.85 yards per play to ARI's 4.38

Detroit gains about a yard and a half more per snap than Arizona, and that matches last season, when the Lions were at 5.97 and the Cardinals at 5.18. Detroit's explosiveness drives it: Jared Goff hit Isaac TeSlaa for 57 and Jameson Williams for 49 last game. Arizona has dropped from last year's 5.18, so some recovery is possible, but the Lions' number looks stable. Detroit is the team more likely to flip field position with a single big pass.

TB: 4.95 yards per play allowed to DAL's 6.43

Tampa Bay allows 4.95 yards a play over four games, while Dallas gives up 6.43. Per-play efficiency steadies faster than raw totals, so this gap is more believable than most early numbers. Combined with Dallas's run and third-down issues, the Cowboys defense looks like the weak point in this game, which shapes how you view Tampa Bay's offensive outlook.

Tee Higgins (WR) is questionable for CIN

Taylor calls Higgins day-to-day with an adductor injury heading into the game at Miami. Questionable with a day-to-day label leaves real room for him to play. His practice reports this week are the best signal for whether Cincinnati has its full receiver group.

Dallas Goedert (TE) is doubtful for PHI

Doubtful means the Eagles expect Goedert to miss the trip to Jacksonville. No injury detail was given. Philadelphia will spread his targets around the offense, so plan Eagles passing bets without him and confirm with the inactives before kickoff.

Kyle Monangai (RB) is questionable for CHI

Monangai hurt his right thumb in Sunday's 23-12 win over the Jets, and Ben Johnson calls him day-to-day. A thumb is usually something a running back can play through with tape or a wrap, though ball security becomes the concern. Day-to-day is the mildest label a coach uses, so his practice status this week is the best guide for the Bears' backfield split at Green Bay.

Konata Mumpfield (WR) is questionable for LAR

Mumpfield suffered a rotator cuff contusion in Sunday's 24-20 win over the Eagles. A contusion is a bruise rather than a tear, which usually means days rather than weeks, but catching and taking hits on that shoulder can be painful. His practice status this week will shape how the Rams spread targets against Buffalo.

SEA: 2 takeaways per game to SF's 0.75

Seattle has forced two turnovers a game over four games, while San Francisco has forced 0.75. Turnovers bounce around a lot, so both numbers probably move toward average with more games. Seattle's edge in this game is real so far, but the takeaway gap is shakier than yardage or per-play numbers.

Saquon Barkley (RB) is questionable for PHI

Barkley hurt his hamstring in Sunday's loss to the Rams, and Nick Sirianni gave no update Monday, saying more answers would come Wednesday probably. Questionable means it is a real coin flip for the Jacksonville game, and hamstrings are the kind of injury that can linger. Wednesday's practice report is the first useful signal, so hold off on any Barkley props or Eagles rushing angles until then.

DJ Moore (WR) is questionable for BUF

Moore has a shoulder injury that isn't considered long-term. That points to a short absence at worst, but it does not settle whether he plays at the Rams in Week 5. His practice participation this week is what will tell you how much of Buffalo's passing game runs through him.

Jeremiyah Love (RB) is questionable for ARI

Love is dealing with an ankle issue, and Mike LaFleur said Monday it is separate from the high-ankle sprain he dealt with in August. A new ankle problem for a running back who already had one this year deserves caution even if the team frames it as unrelated. Check his practice reports before the Lions game, since a limited week could mean a lighter workload in Arizona's backfield.

Ladd McConkey (WR) is questionable for LAC

McConkey has a foot injury, and Jim Harbaugh called him week-to-week. That phrase is more worrying than the questionable tag suggests, because it means the team is thinking beyond a single game. Bettors looking at the Chargers' passing game against Denver should be ready for him to miss and for targets to shift to the other receivers.

Chris Brooks (RB) is questionable for GB

Brooks had further tests on his ankle Monday, and the Packers list him as questionable for the Bears game. Questionable means a real chance he plays, and more tests on an ankle mean the team is still sorting out how bad it is. Watch the rest of the week's practice reports before betting on how the Green Bay backfield carries split against Chicago.

Mason Taylor (TE) is doubtful for NYJ

Doubtful puts Taylor on track to miss the Cleveland game. No injury detail was reported. The Jets also list Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as doubtful, which could leave the offense thin, and that matters more for team totals than any single Jets prop.

Dillon Gabriel (QB) is ir-r for CLE

IR-R means Gabriel is on injured reserve with a designation to return, and the Browns opened his 21-day practice window Tuesday for his back. He can practice now, and Cleveland has 21 days to activate him or leave him on the shelf. An opened window does not put him in uniform, so wait for an activation before counting him in or out for the trip to the Jets.

Mack Hollins (WR) is questionable for NE

Vrabel expects more information on Hollins' calf later Monday, and the Patriots are unsure he can practice for a couple of days. Questionable means a real chance he misses the Raiders game. If he does not practice by late in the week, plan on New England's receivers playing without him.

DEN: 1.25 turnovers committed per game to LAC's 2.5

The Chargers are giving the ball away twice as often as Denver, about 2.5 times a game over 4 games. Last season the Chargers sat at 1.24, so this is a sharp spike that turnovers rarely sustain. Denver at 1.25 is close to last year's 1. Expect the Chargers' giveaways to settle, though a Denver defense that forces mistakes gets more chances at home against a careless offense.

NYG: 19.8 points allowed per game to WSH's 30.5

NYG is at 19.8 points allowed per game over 4 games; WSH is at 30.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season NYG was at 25.8 over 17 games and WSH at 26.5 over 17 games.

LAD games have gone UNDER 8 straight

Dodgers games have stayed under the total eight straight times, with both teams combining for 5.9 runs a night against totals set around 8. Tonight's line at Atlanta is 6.5, so the market has already come down to meet the trend and most of that cushion is gone. Eight games is a small sample, and nothing on the sheet explains the low scoring. The question for a bettor is whether 6.5 is still too high for these two teams.

P final total 4 vs 6.5

MIL have won 7 straight

Milwaukee has won seven in a row and outscored opponents by 16 runs in that stretch, so these are real wins, more than a string of coin flips. They are 7-1 over their last eight, which is good form over a short run. Streaks end, and tonight they are on the road in San Diego. Price the Brewers on how well they have been playing, and be careful if the line charges extra for the streak itself.

P team lost 3-4

DEN: 1.25 sacks taken per game to LAC's 3

Denver's quarterback is going down far less often than the Chargers' passer, who is getting sacked three times a game through 4 games. This matches last season, when the Chargers took 3.75 a game and Denver 1.77, so the gap looks structural. Expect it to hold. Drives for the Chargers are more likely to stall on a negative play, which matters for their scoring and their quarterback's passing totals.

DET @ ARI carries a 53.5 market total

The 53.5 total says the market sees a high-tempo game where both sides score often, 10 points above the 43.5 median across this slate. That number leaves little room for empty drives. The under needs one of these offenses to sputter, through turnovers or settling for kicks, because a total this high assumes touchdowns. Early drive results tell you a lot about whether that assumption is holding.

DEN: 1.25 turnovers a game to LAC's 2.5

Denver has turned it over 1.25 times a game through 4 games, the Chargers 2.5. Last season Denver was at 1 and the Chargers at 1.24, so the Chargers have doubled their giveaways over a short run. That jump is the likelier number to fall back. For this division game, the Chargers' ball security at home is what keeps Denver from getting cheap possessions.

NYG: 19.8 points allowed a game to WSH's 30.5

The Giants' defense has allowed 19.8 points a game through 4 games, down from 25.8 last season, while Washington has given up 30.5, up from 26.5. Both teams have moved in opposite directions from last year. Four games is a short sample, and these numbers will likely drift back toward their old levels. Washington at home has to slow the game down and avoid letting this turn into a shootout it can't win on defense.

BUF: 31.8 points per game to LAR's 21.3

BUF is at 31.8 points per game over 4 games; LAR is at 21.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 28.3 over 17 games and LAR at 30.5 over 17 games.

DET: 3.75 sacks recorded per game to ARI's 2

Detroit is averaging 3.75 sacks a game over four games, compared with Arizona's two. The sheet doesn't say which offensive lines either faced, so the number could rise or fall with schedule. In this game, Detroit has the stronger pass rush, which matters for Arizona's passing volume and drive outlook.

Cobie Durant (CB) is doubtful for DAL

Doubtful means Dallas expects to play Tampa Bay without Durant. No injury detail came with the listing. A missing corner means the next defensive back up takes his snaps, which can give Tampa Bay's receivers an easier matchup. That is worth weighing on Buccaneers passing bets once the inactives confirm he is out.

Nick Bosa (DE) is doubtful for SF

Doubtful means Bosa is very unlikely to play at Seattle. He is a defensive end, and the sheet gives no injury detail or date for when he last played. If he sits, San Francisco loses an edge rusher against the Seahawks, and the sheet does not say who replaces him. That matters most for spots that hinge on pressure on the quarterback.

CIN: 30.8% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 64.7%

Opponents have scored touchdowns on 30.8% of red-zone trips against Cincinnati over four games, versus 64.7% against Miami. Red-zone rates rest on few trips, so Cincinnati's mark is likely to climb some. The gap still points toward the Bengals finishing drives better than the Dolphins here, which matters for touchdown props and the total.

JAX: 13.3 points allowed a game to PHI's 23.3

Jacksonville's defense has allowed 13.3 points a game through 4 games, Philadelphia's 23.3. Last season the two were close, Jacksonville at 19.8 and Philadelphia at 19.1, so this gap is new. Four games is a short window, and both should drift back some. At home, Jacksonville's defense gives Philadelphia's offense a tougher test than its own defense has offered opponents so far.

LAR: 4.13 yards per play allowed to BUF's 5.45

The Rams allow just 4.13 yards a play over four games, while Buffalo gives up 5.45. Yards per play steadies quicker than most early stats, so the Rams number is more believable than their passing-yards figure alone. In this game, the Rams defense has the efficiency edge, which favors a lower-scoring outlook for Buffalo.

CHI: 25.3 first downs per game to GB's 17

CHI is at 25.3 first downs per game over 4 games; GB is at 17 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CHI was at 21.1 over 17 games and GB at 19.6 over 17 games.

IND: 83.3% fourth-down conversion rate to PIT's 33.3%

Indianapolis has converted nearly every fourth down it has tried through 4 games, while Pittsburgh has made only a third of theirs. Fourth-down samples are tiny, so a couple of plays move these numbers a lot. Last season the Colts were at 66.7% and the Steelers 52.2%, so Indy's edge likely holds but shrinks. Expect the Colts to keep going for it in short-yardage spots.

JAX: 13.3 points allowed per game to PHI's 23.3

PHI is at 23.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; JAX is at 13.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season PHI was at 19.1 over 17 games and JAX at 19.8 over 17 games.

CHI: 28 points per game to GB's 18.3

CHI is at 28 points per game over 4 games; GB is at 18.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CHI was at 25.9 over 17 games and GB at 23 over 17 games.

CHI: 16.3 points allowed per game to GB's 26.3

CHI is at 16.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; GB is at 26.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CHI was at 24.4 over 17 games and GB at 21.2 over 17 games.

CHI: 47.3 penalty yards per game to GB's 86

CHI is at 47.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; GB is at 86 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CHI was at 57.1 over 17 games and GB at 48.1 over 17 games.

SF: 43.3 penalty yards per game to SEA's 81.8

SF is at 43.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; SEA is at 81.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 38.3 over 17 games and SEA at 46.6 over 17 games.

Ko Kieft (TE) is questionable for TB

Kieft is a tight end with an elbow injury who was limited at practice Tuesday. Limited work this early in the week leaves room for him to play at Dallas, and questionable is a true toss-up tag. The sheet does not name who takes his snaps. Watch the rest of the week's practice reports before leaning on anything tied to Tampa Bay's tight end usage.

CHI: 74.5 offensive plays per game to GB's 58.8

CHI is at 74.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; GB is at 58.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CHI was at 64.9 over 17 games and GB at 59.4 over 17 games.

Braves are 5-1 vs Dodgers this season

Atlanta has won five of six against Los Angeles this season, and the latest was a 1-0 game. Six games is a small sample, and there is nothing here on who pitched, where the earlier games were played or how close the rest were. Tonight's game is in Atlanta. The starters and current form deserve more weight than a 5-1 series record.

James Thompson Jr. (DT) is doubtful for SF

Doubtful means Thompson is very unlikely to suit up at Seattle. The sheet lists no injury or recent game details for the defensive tackle, and no named replacement. San Francisco also lists Nick Bosa as doubtful, so the defensive front could be short two players in this game.

SEA: 28.6% third downs allowed to SF's 44.1%

Seattle has allowed opponents to convert 28.6% of third downs over four games, versus 44.1% against San Francisco. Both may drift toward the middle over a longer run. Seattle getting off the field more often than San Francisco points to a Seahawks edge in drive count, which matters for possession-based props.

BAL: 241.5 team passing yards per game to ATL's 179.5

Baltimore is throwing for about 62 more yards a game than Atlanta through 4 games. That's a reversal from last season, when the Ravens averaged 175.6 and the Falcons 207.2. Baltimore's jump may reflect early game scripts, and Atlanta's drop may recover. Expect the Ravens to lean on the pass more than last year, though the gap could shrink.

HOU: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to TEN's 2

Houston averages 3.5 sacks a game through four games, Tennessee 2. That is a small sample with no opponent detail attached, so some regression is likely. The Texans' rush is the side more likely to create long-yardage downs for the other offence in this one.

JAX: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to PHI's 1

Jacksonville is getting home 2.5 times a game, Philadelphia once. Four games is a short window, and the sheet does not say which lines either rush faced. If the Jaguars keep that pace at home, Philadelphia's passing game may see more drive-killing negative plays than the Jaguars face in return.

Christian Darrisaw (OT) is questionable for MIN

Darrisaw, Minnesota's left tackle, is in concussion protocol after Sunday's game against the Dolphins. He protects the quarterback's blind side, so missing him would be a real hit to the Vikings' pass protection in New Orleans. Concussion timelines are unpredictable, so his status may not be clear until late in the week.

Charles Woods (CB) is questionable for NE

Woods left Sunday's 29-26 win over the Bills with a shoulder injury after making two tackles. Shoulders are a tough spot for a cornerback who has to tackle and jam receivers. Check this week's practice reports to see whether New England's secondary is short handed against the Raiders.

Cam Jurgens (C) is questionable for PHI

Jurgens, Philadelphia's center, entered the five-step concussion protocol Monday. Players have to clear every step before returning, and that timeline varies widely, so this is a true wait-and-see situation for the Jacksonville game. Losing the player who snaps the ball and calls protections can disrupt an offensive line, which is worth weighing for Eagles rushing and sack numbers.

Quinyon Mitchell (CB) is questionable for PHI

Mitchell left Sunday's 24-20 loss to the Rams and is getting his knee tested Monday. He is one of Philadelphia's top cover corners, so his availability matters a lot for how the Eagles defend Jacksonville's receivers. Until the test results come out, his status is a real unknown, and a knee issue that needs testing carries more risk than a routine questionable tag.

MIN: 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 147.8

MIN is at 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NO is at 147.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Benjamin Morrison (CB) is questionable for TB

Morrison (quadriceps) did not participate in practice Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.

Chauncey Golston (DE) is questionable for NYG

Golston hurt his neck in Sunday's win over the Cardinals and did not return. Questionable means he could play or sit against Washington. Neck injuries leave little to judge from the outside, so his practice participation this week is the thing to follow.

Jaxson Dart (QB) is on injured reserve for NYG

Dart had surgery to repair the meniscus and MCL in his left knee, and the Giants have placed him on injured reserve. He will not play against Washington. The market should already account for his absence, so price this game around the quarterback the Giants actually start.

Brandon Cisse (CB) is questionable for GB

Brandon Cisse picked up a neck injury in Sunday's 17-14 win over the Buccaneers, and Matt LaFleur said he is not in the concussion protocol and the issue looks short-term. Questionable with that kind of coach language usually leans toward playing, though practice reports this week will tell you more. If he is limited or sits against Chicago, the Packers' corner depth gets tested, so check his status before backing the Bears' passing game.

Riley Moss (CB) is questionable for DEN

Moss had imaging on his ribs Monday. Rib injuries can often be played through with padding, but they make tackling and contact painful for a cornerback. The imaging results will say more than the questionable tag about whether Denver has him against the Chargers.

TEN: 1.5 sacks taken per game to HOU's 3

Houston's quarterback is getting sacked twice as often as Tennessee's through 4 games. Last season the Texans took 2.58 a game and the Titans 3.5, so Tennessee's protection has improved while Houston's has slipped. Expect both to drift toward last season's levels. Houston drives are at higher risk of stalling on drop-backs in Tennessee.

Ronnie Stanley (OT) is questionable for BAL

Stanley is Baltimore's left tackle, and the toe issue did not stop him from finishing Sunday's 24-18 win over Tennessee. Questionable means roughly a coin flip or better to play, and a player who finished his last game usually leans toward suiting up. If he plays at Atlanta, the line stays intact; if he sits, watch for a backup on the quarterback's blind side and adjust expectations for sacks and pressure.

SF: 0 sacks taken per game to SEA's 1.5

SF is at 0 sacks taken per game over 4 games; SEA is at 1.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 1.8 over 17 games and SEA at 2.08 over 17 games.

Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (CB) is questionable for NYJ

Brownlee is in concussion protocol as Week 5 approaches. He has to clear every step of the protocol before he can play, and there is no firm timeline. If he sits, the Jets will lean on depth at cornerback against Cleveland, which is worth considering for Browns receivers.

CHI: 55.6% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 85.7%

CHI is at 55.6% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; GB is at 85.7% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

JAX: 28.6% red-zone scoring allowed to PHI's 58.8%

PHI is at 58.8% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; JAX is at 28.6% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

CIN: 20.8 first downs per game to MIA's 13.3

CIN is at 20.8 first downs per game over 4 games; MIA is at 13.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 20.7 over 17 games and MIA at 17.1 over 17 games.

ATL: 48.3 rushing yards allowed per game to BAL's 100

Atlanta has held opponents to 48.3 rushing yards a game, Baltimore has allowed 100. Four games with no opponent context on the sheet means part of Atlanta's number could be schedule or game script. In this game the Falcons' front has been the stingier run defence, which matters if Baltimore leans on the ground.

NYJ: 0.25 turnovers committed per game to CLE's 1.25

The Jets have turned it over just 0.25 times a game across 4 games, which means one giveaway all season, after 1.35 last season. Cleveland is at 1.25, close to its 1.47 from last year. A one-turnover month is very hard to keep up, so expect the Jets to give some back. The Browns number looks closer to who they are, which makes ball security a smaller edge for New York than the gap suggests.

LV: 1.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5

New England has turned it over 2.5 times a game through 4 games, the Raiders 1.5. Last season New England was at 0.94, so this is a sharp rise over a short stretch, while the Raiders at 1.35 have barely moved. New England's number is the one most likely to fall back. At home, New England's ball security decides whether the Raiders get short fields to work with.

DET: 6.77 yards per pass attempt to ARI's 4.75

Detroit is gaining 6.77 yards every time it throws over 4 games, close to its 7.09 last season, while Arizona is down at 4.75 after 5.61 a year ago. The Lions passing game looks steady, and the Cardinals have fallen further off an already weak mark. With Detroit visiting, this sets up as the Lions controlling the game through the air while Arizona has to grind shorter gains to keep pace. Arizona's dip is only 4 games, so some bounce back toward last season is possible.

SF: 6.97 yards per play to SEA's 5.83

SF is at 6.97 yards per play over 4 games; SEA is at 5.83 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 5.49 over 17 games and SEA at 5.98 over 17 games.

LV: 2.25 takeaways per game to NE's 1.25

Las Vegas is forcing 2.25 takeaways a game, New England 1.25. Takeaways are the most luck-driven defensive stat, and four games is a thin base, so expect that gap to narrow. It points to the Raiders as the side more likely to steal a possession, without much weight behind it.

MIN: 1.75 takeaways per game to NO's 0.75

MIN is at 1.75 takeaways per game over 4 games; NO is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

NYJ: 0.25 turnovers a game to CLE's 1.25

The Jets have turned it over 0.25 times a game through 4 games, Cleveland 1.25. Last season the Jets were at 1.35 and Cleveland at 1.47, so the Jets' near-spotless start is the outlier. That number should rise over a longer run. For this game, Cleveland has to win the turnover battle on the road to make up ground elsewhere.

Leonard Williams (DT) is questionable for SEA

Mike Macdonald said Monday he expects Williams to be available Sunday against the 49ers, so the questionable tag here leans toward him playing through the ankle. A head coach putting that on record early in the week is a stronger signal than the injury report alone. If he does sit, Seattle loses a starting interior lineman in a division game, so watch the final report before leaning on anything tied to the 49ers run game.

Josiah Trotter (LB) is questionable for TB

Trotter (knee) was listed as a limited participant on the Buccaneers' estimated injury report Monday, Brianna Dix of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 6.

SirVocea Dennis (LB) is questionable for TB

Dennis (ankle) underwent an MRI after the Buccaneers' Week 4 loss to the Packers, Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reported Monday. Reported Oct 6.

Jonathan Greenard (LB) is questionable for PHI

Greenard, an Eagles pass rusher, left Sunday's game against the Rams with an ankle injury and is day-to-day. Day-to-day points to a short absence at worst, so questionable is a fair reading for the trip to Jacksonville. If he sits, Philadelphia loses an edge rusher, which can mean more time for the Jaguars quarterback.

DeVonta Smith (WR) is questionable for PHI

Questionable means Smith's status for Philadelphia at Jacksonville is uncertain. The sheet does not name the injury or say when it happened, so there is little to go on beyond the tag. If you are looking at Eagles passing props, wait for the final inactive list before kickoff.

Hollywood Brown (WR) is questionable for PHI

PHI lists Hollywood Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Jaden Crumedy (DT) is questionable for HOU

Crumedy, a Houston defensive tackle, hurt his shoulder in Sunday's 34-30 loss to the Cowboys. The sheet has no timeline, so questionable is all there is to go on for the game at Tennessee. He is a rotation interior lineman, and his status matters mostly for Houston's run defense depth.

Colbie Young (WR) is questionable for CIN

Questionable means Young could go either way for the trip to Miami. No injury detail was reported. Wait for the practice reports before betting any Bengals receiver prop that depends on how targets are split.

Caleb Douglas (WR) is questionable for MIA

Questionable means Douglas may or may not play against Cincinnati. The listing came with no injury detail. If he sits, his targets go to the other Dolphins receivers, so hold off on those props until his status is clear.

Jackson Woodard (LB) is questionable for MIA

Woodard, a Miami linebacker, hurt his ankle in Sunday's 15-10 loss to the Vikings. Questionable leaves his status against Cincinnati open, and no timeline is on the sheet. If he sits, Miami has one less body at linebacker against a Bengals offense, so watch his practice participation.

Dante Trader Jr. (S) is questionable for MIA

Trader, a Miami safety, has a knee injury and is day-to-day before Week 5. Day-to-day suggests a short absence at most, so he has a real chance to face Cincinnati. If he misses, Miami's back end gets thinner, which is worth weighing on Bengals deep passing props.

Justin Jefferson (WR) is questionable for MIN

Questionable means Jefferson's availability in New Orleans is uncertain. No injury detail came with the listing. Minnesota's passing props and team total depend on whether he plays, so this is a game to wait on until his status is confirmed.

Mason Graham (DT) is questionable for CLE

Graham underwent an MRI on Friday that revealed he sustained an MCL and ankle sprain in Thursday night's game, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Oct 2.

Tylan Wallace (WR) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Tylan Wallace as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Keenan Allen (WR) is questionable for IND

The Oct 6 report gives no injury detail, and questionable means a real chance Keenan Allen plays at Pittsburgh. Check the final inactive list before betting any IND receiving prop, since targets shift to the rest of the room if Allen sits.

Rico Dowdle (RB) is questionable for PIT

Pittsburgh listed Rico Dowdle as questionable on Oct 6 with no injury detail, so the status leaves Sunday open against Indianapolis. Running back carries and rushing props are the bets most exposed to his status, so wait for the inactive list.

Jason Pinnock (S) is questionable for NYG

Pinnock took a concussion in Sunday's 36-24 win over Arizona, and questionable means his status for Washington is uncertain. Concussion returns depend on clearing the league protocol, so his availability may not be settled until close to kickoff. If he sits, the Giants' secondary loses a starting safety, which is worth checking before betting Washington's passing game.

Rachaad White (RB) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Rachaad White as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Terry McLaurin (WR) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Terry McLaurin as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Brenen Thompson (WR) is questionable for LAC

The Oct 6 report lists Brenen Thompson as questionable for the Chargers against Denver, with no injury or snap detail. Questionable leaves the door open either way, so hold off on any LAC receiver prop until his status is settled.

Andrew Wingard (S) is questionable for ARI

Wingard, an Arizona safety, has a bone bruise in his knee from Sunday's 36-24 loss to the Giants. Bone bruises can be painful but often do not mean a long absence, so questionable fits. If he sits against Detroit, Arizona's secondary gets thinner against a strong passing offense.

Chris Moore (WR) is questionable for BAL

Baltimore listed Chris Moore as questionable on Oct 7 for the trip to Atlanta, and the report gives no injury or detail beyond that. Questionable means he is a real chance to play, so this is a status to recheck closer to kickoff rather than one to price in now. If you are looking at Ravens receiver props, wait for the final word on Moore before leaning either way.

ARI: 233.8 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 304

Arizona is allowing 233.8 passing yards a game, Detroit 304, both through four games. The sheet does not show who threw on them, so how much is schedule is unclear. On current form, Detroit's secondary is the one giving up more through the air in this matchup.

TB: 45.5% red-zone scoring allowed to DAL's 73.3%

TB is at 45.5% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; DAL is at 73.3% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

NYG (3-1) at WSH (1-3), a division game

The Giants are 3-1 but only +3 on the year, so their wins have been close, and their one road game was a loss. Washington is 1-3 at -34, a team that has been beaten badly when it loses, though it has split two home games. A 3-1 record at +3 tends to drift toward the middle. In a division game, the Giants' record oversells the gap between these two, and that matters when you size up a road favorite.

CHI (3-1) at GB (2-2), a division game

Chicago has won 2 straight at +47, a margin that backs up the 3-1 record, and it won its only road game. Green Bay sits at 2-2 but -32, which means its losses were lopsided, and it lost its only home game. Those home and road splits are one game each, so they add little. The point differential is the stronger signal here, and it favors Chicago more than the records alone suggest.

SF (4-0) at SEA (3-1), a division game

SF is 4-0, +58 points on the year, has won 4 straight this season. SEA is 3-1, +32 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. SF is 1-0 on the road; SEA is 2-0 at home. Both live in the NFC WEST.

Jake Cronenworth: .968 OPS in Last 15 Days

Cronenworth has a .968 OPS over the last 15 days, far above his .629 season mark. That comes in 47 AB, about two weeks, so a hot stretch is carrying the number, and it should drift back toward his season level. His total-bases line tonight against Milwaukee is 0.5, so one hit clears it, and his recent form says the bat is live right now.

P 2-for-2, 5 TB

JAX: 74.3 rushing yards allowed per game to PHI's 122

PHI is at 122 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; JAX is at 74.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

DET: 29.8 points per game to ARI's 21.8

DET is at 29.8 points per game over 4 games; ARI is at 21.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 28.3 over 17 games and ARI at 20.9 over 17 games.

Xander Bogaerts: 1.123 OPS in Last 15 Days

Bogaerts has a 1.123 OPS over the last 15 days, well above his .676 season mark. It comes in just 34 AB, where a few extra-base hits swing the number a lot, so this pace is unlikely to last. His 13 home runs show the power is real. With a 0.5 total-bases line against Milwaukee, one hit is enough, and that is the kind of prop where a hot short stretch counts most.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

SF: 9.32 yards per pass attempt to SEA's 7.43

SF is at 9.32 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; SEA is at 7.43 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 6.9 over 17 games and SEA at 8.01 over 17 games.

Isaiah Adams (G) is questionable for ARI

Adams hurt his ankle in Sunday's loss to the Giants and is questionable for Detroit. Losing a starting guard matters most against a front that can collapse the pocket, so watch his practice status this week and whether Arizona has to slide a backup in.

Tank Dell (WR) is ir-r for HOU

Dell is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and DeMeco Ryans expects Houston to open his 21-day practice window this week. Opening the window means he can practice, and it does not put him on the field against Tennessee. Plan this game without him and treat his return as a few weeks out.

Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA

Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald said Monday that Charbonnet (knee) won't be activated from the reserve/PUP list in advance of Sunday's game against the 49ers, Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune reports. Reported Oct 5.

Christian Kirk (WR) is ir-r for SF

Kirk is on injured reserve with a calf injury, and Kyle Shanahan said Friday the 49ers could open his practice window in two weeks. He is out for Seattle, and any return is still further off than that window opening.

NO: 72.8 offensive plays per game to MIN's 59.8

MIN is at 59.8 offensive plays per game over 4 games; NO is at 72.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season MIN was at 56.1 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.

DEN: 5.8 sack yards lost per game to LAC's 18.8

DEN is at 5.8 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; LAC is at 18.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DEN was at 9.5 over 17 games and LAC at 21.6 over 17 games.

Jordyn Tyson (WR) is ir-r for NO

Tyson is on injured reserve with a hamstring and is reportedly feeling good and making progress, but the earliest expected return is Week 7. He will not play against Minnesota, so New Orleans goes with the receivers it has used while he has been out.

IND: 13.8 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 26.8

Pittsburgh is losing 26.8 yards a game to sacks over 4 games, nearly double its 14.8 last season, while Indianapolis is at 13.8, close to its 15.1 from a year ago. The Colts number looks stable. The Steelers jump is a 4-game spike well off their full-season norm, so it could ease. Until it does, sacks are pushing Pittsburgh into longer down-and-distance spots, which is the side of this matchup where drives are more likely to stall.

Chase McLaughlin (PK) is questionable for TB

McLaughlin didn't practice Tuesday due to a right groin/hip injury. Reported Oct 6.

IND: 2 sacks taken a game to PIT's 3.25

Pittsburgh has taken 3.25 sacks a game through 4 games, Indianapolis 2. Indianapolis is right on its 2.07 from last season, while Pittsburgh is up from 2.38. Pittsburgh's jump over four games is the number more likely to settle back. At home, Pittsburgh needs to keep its quarterback upright to avoid drives dying on negative plays.

SEA: 144.8 passing yards allowed per game to SF's 209

Seattle is allowing just 144.8 passing yards a game, San Francisco 209. Four games is a small sample and a low passing number can come from opponents running with a lead, which the sheet does not show. The Seahawks' pass defence has been the tighter of the two heading into this one.

Marcus Mariota is the projected starting quarterback for WSH

Through 3 games in 2026, Marcus Mariota threw for 340 passing yards, completed 64.7% of his passes and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 1695 yards, completed 61.2% and averaged 7.47 yards per attempt, 10-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in. Marcus Mariota is also listed d for this matchup.

Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

Through 4 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 967 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 10.07 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in. Lamar Jackson is also listed q for this matchup.

TB has lost 4 straight

Tampa Bay has not won a game yet, and four losses in four tries is the whole season so far. The sheet does not say who those losses came against or how close they were, so four games is all the evidence there is. A winless team on the road at Dallas tends to get priced as the weaker side, and the useful question for a bettor is whether that number already bakes in the 0-4 start or overreacts to it.

HOU has lost 4 straight

Houston is 0-4 and has not won yet, and this trip to Tennessee is against another team that is also 0-4. With no opponent or margin detail on the sheet, four games is the full sample. Two winless teams meeting means one streak ends here, so lean on the matchup itself, since neither record gives the market much to separate them.

MIA has lost 4 straight

Miami is 0-4 heading into a home game with Cincinnati, and that record covers every game they have played. The sheet does not show the opponents or the scores, so there is no way to tell from here whether these were blowouts or close losses. Four games is a short run, and the betting angle is whether the price on a winless home team has drifted further than the results justify.

SF has won 4 straight

SF carries a 4-game winning streak into this one, sitting at 4-0 on the season. They face SEA in SF @ SEA. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-05.

MIN has won 4 straight

Minnesota has won every game so far, 4-0, and takes that run on the road to New Orleans. The sheet does not list the opponents, so four games is the full case and how strong the schedule was is unknown. Unbeaten teams usually get priced like it, so the bettor's job is deciding whether a road favorite after four wins is a fair number or a tax on the streak.

LAC has lost 4 straight

LAC carries a 4-game losing streak into this one, sitting at 0-4 on the season. They face DEN in DEN @ LAC. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-05.

IND: 2 sacks taken per game to PIT's 3.25

IND is at 2 sacks taken per game over 4 games; PIT is at 3.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season IND was at 2.07 over 17 games and PIT at 2.38 over 17 games.

NO: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to MIN's 2

MIN is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; NO is at 3.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season MIN was at 3 over 17 games and NO at 2.65 over 17 games.

SEA: 2.75 sacks recorded per game to SF's 1.5

SF is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 4 games; SEA is at 2.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

DET: 0 interceptions thrown per game to ARI's 1

DET is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 0.47 over 17 games and ARI at 0.65 over 17 games.

DAL: 0.25 interceptions thrown per game to TB's 1.25

TB is at 1.25 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; DAL is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 0.65 over 17 games and DAL at 0.71 over 17 games.

Freddie Freeman: .489 OPS in Last 15 Days

Freeman has a .489 OPS over the last 15 days in 46 AB, well below his .792 season mark. That is about two weeks, short enough that a handful of hard-hit outs can drag the number down. Hitters with a .792 baseline usually drift back toward it. For his props at Atlanta, give the full season more weight than this cold stretch.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB

SF: 0 sack yards lost per game to SEA's 12

SF is at 0 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; SEA is at 12 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 10.7 over 17 games and SEA at 14.3 over 17 games.

HOU: 21 points per game to TEN's 13.8

HOU is at 21 points per game over 4 games; TEN is at 13.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 23.8 over 17 games and TEN at 16.7 over 17 games.

MIN: 4.93 yards per play allowed to NO's 5.9

MIN is at 4.93 yards per play allowed over 4 games; NO is at 5.9 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Colby Parkinson (TE) is questionable for LAR

The Rams listed Colby Parkinson as questionable on Oct 6 ahead of Buffalo, with no injury named. Questionable means a coin-flip type call, so any LAR tight end prop is a wait-for-inactives bet.

NFC WEST game: SF 2-0, SEA 1-0 in the division

San Francisco is 2-0 in the NFC West and Seattle is 1-0, so neither has lost to a rival yet and the winner takes control of the early division race. Two games and one game are thin samples. A road team with the better division mark against a home team that is also unbeaten in the division is a spot where home field can matter more than the records suggest.

JAX: 26 points per game to PHI's 18.8

PHI is at 18.8 points per game over 4 games; JAX is at 26 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season PHI was at 22.3 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.

NFC NORTH game: CHI 0-1, GB 0-1 in the division

Chicago and Green Bay have each played one division game and each lost it, so whoever wins here gets back to even in the NFC North. One game apiece tells you almost nothing about either team. Treat the division records as a wash and handicap the game on its other merits.

Charlie Kolar (TE) is questionable for LAC

Charlie Kolar is questionable for the Chargers against Denver as of Oct 6, and the sheet gives no injury detail. If he sits, tight end snaps go to whoever else is on the depth chart, so check final status before betting LAC tight end lines.

HOU: 29:12 time of possession per game to TEN's 24:19

HOU is at 29:12 time of possession per game over 4 games; TEN is at 24:19 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 31:49 over 17 games and TEN at 29:08 over 17 games.

NFC EAST game: NYG 1-0, WSH 0-2 in the division

The Giants have played one division game and won it, while Washington is 0-2 against the NFC East. These are tiny samples, one game and two games, so they say little about either team's true level. The useful part is that Washington, at home, is already chasing in the division, which can push a team to play more aggressively in a game like this.

AFC WEST game: DEN 0-1, LAC 0-1 in the division

These two share the AFC WEST. DEN is 0-1 against it, LAC is 0-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-05.

BAL: 8.85 yards per pass attempt to ATL's 7.15

BAL is at 8.85 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; ATL is at 7.15 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and ATL at 6.21 over 17 games.

NYG: 43.4% third-down conversion rate to WSH's 31.6%

The Giants are converting 43.4% of third downs over 4 games, a bit above their 40.2% last season, while Washington has dipped to 31.6% from 37.6%. The Giants look close to their norm. Washington's drop is a 4-game slide that could bounce back some toward last year. In this matchup, the Giants are the side more likely to sustain drives and hold the ball, which shapes how many possessions Washington gets.

TEN: 9.3 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 20.5

HOU is at 20.5 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; TEN is at 9.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 20.8 over 17 games and TEN at 26.1 over 17 games.

Ozzie Albies: .405 OPS in Last 15 Days

Albies has a .405 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 AB, against a .685 season mark. That is a cold two weeks in a small sample, and his season number was already modest, so a bounce back has a lower ceiling. For his props at Atlanta, the .685 season mark is the better guide, with the slump as a reason for some caution.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB

Mookie Betts: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days

Betts has a 1.046 OPS over the last 15 days against a .780 season mark. The 46 AB sample is decent for two weeks, and his 23 home runs say he can produce stretches like this, though some pullback toward his season level is likely. His total-bases line at Atlanta is 1.5, which takes a double or two hits, so his recent extra-base form matters more here than on a one-hit prop.

P 2-for-5, 2 TB

LAR: 290.3 pass yards a game to BUF's 247.3

The Rams are throwing for 290.3 yards a game through 4 games, Buffalo 247.3. The Rams are up from 268.1 last season, and Buffalo has jumped from 216.6, so both passing games are running hot. Four games is a short sample, and some cooling is likely. With both teams throwing well above last year, this sets up as a game where each defense has to slow the pass to get an edge.

Will Smith: 1.182 OPS in Last 15 Days

Smith has a 1.182 OPS over the last 15 days, far above his .781 season mark. It comes in 31 AB, the smallest sample of this group, so it can cool quickly, though his 10 home runs show some real pop. His total-bases line at Atlanta is 0.5, so a single clears it. This is a catcher seeing the ball well over a short window, and his season line is still the better measure of his level.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

DEN (2-2) at LAC (0-4), a division game

DEN is 2-2, -20 points on the year, has lost 1 straight this season. LAC is 0-4, -39 points on the year, has lost 4 straight this season. DEN is 0-2 on the road; LAC is 0-2 at home. Both live in the AFC WEST.

PHI: 222 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 280.3

PHI is at 222 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; JAX is at 280.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Christian Braswell (CB) is questionable for JAX

JAX lists Christian Braswell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

MIA: 4.52 yards per rush attempt to CIN's 3.42

CIN is at 3.42 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; MIA is at 4.52 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 4.14 over 17 games and MIA at 4.64 over 17 games.

JAX: 5.63 yards per play to PHI's 4.75

Jacksonville is gaining 5.63 yards a play over 4 games and Philadelphia 4.75, after both sat at 5.27 last season. The last game shows the split: the Jaguars had 5 plays of 20+ yards, including Trevor Lawrence's 29-yarder to Josh Cameron and Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 25-yard touchdown run, while the Eagles had none. Both teams have drifted from the same baseline over just 4 games, so expect some pull back toward the middle, with Jacksonville the side more likely to hit chunk plays at home.

Fred Johnson (OT) is questionable for PHI

PHI lists Fred Johnson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Lane Johnson (OT) is questionable for PHI

PHI lists Lane Johnson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Montaric Brown (CB) is questionable for JAX

JAX lists Montaric Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Robert Beal Jr. (DE) is questionable for MIA

MIA lists Robert Beal Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Christian Gonzalez (CB) is questionable for NE

New England listed Christian Gonzalez as questionable on Oct 6 for the Raiders game, with no injury detail. A missing corner changes how Las Vegas receivers match up, so check his status before betting LV passing props.

Channing Canada (CB) is questionable for NE

Channing Canada is questionable for New England against Las Vegas as of Oct 6, with no injury listed. With another NE corner on the same report, the secondary's health is the thing to confirm before kickoff.

Charles Demmings (CB) is questionable for MIN

Minnesota listed Charles Demmings as questionable on Oct 6 for the trip to New Orleans, with no injury given. Status decides whether the Vikings secondary is at full strength, so watch the inactive list before betting Saints passing lines.

Carl Granderson (DE) is questionable for NO

Carl Granderson is questionable for New Orleans against Minnesota as of Oct 6, with no injury detail. If the Saints are without him, their pass rush is thinner, which matters for Vikings quarterback and sack props.

Elgton Jenkins (C) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Elgton Jenkins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Cam Lewis (CB) is questionable for CHI

Chicago listed Cam Lewis as questionable on Oct 6 for the game at Green Bay, with no injury named. Confirm his status before betting Packers receiver props, since the Bears secondary depth depends on it.

Jacob Monk (C) is questionable for GB

Green Bay lists center Jacob Monk as questionable on Oct 6 against Chicago, with no injury detail. An interior line change can affect the run game and pass protection, so check final status before betting Packers rushing or sack lines.

Christian Benford (CB) is questionable for BUF

Buffalo listed Christian Benford as questionable on Oct 6 for the trip to the Rams, with no injury given. If Benford sits, the Bills corner group is thinner against LAR receivers, so wait on Rams passing props.

Jaylen Watson (CB) is questionable for LAR

The Rams list Jaylen Watson as questionable on Oct 6 ahead of Buffalo, with no injury detail. With a corner questionable on each side, both teams' passing props hinge on the final inactive lists.

Padres are 4-2 vs Brewers this season

San Diego is 4-2 against Milwaukee across six meetings, and the latest was a 4-3 game. That is close to an even split over a short sample, and nothing here on starters, venues or margins points to a real matchup edge. Tonight is in San Diego. The pitching matchup and how each team is playing now carry more weight than this series record.

SEA: 3.93 yards per play allowed to SF's 4.82

SF is at 4.82 yards per play allowed over 4 games; SEA is at 3.93 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

LAC: 36.5% third downs allowed to DEN's 47.5%

The Chargers let opponents convert 36.5% of third downs, Denver 47.5%, through four games. Third-down rates move a lot early in a season. So far Los Angeles has been better at getting off the field, which shapes how long Denver's drives can last.

Next college slate · OCT 9

BDL lists 4 covered college games on the next college slate. All 4 kickoff times are confirmed.

TEN: 20.8 points allowed per game to HOU's 27.3

HOU is at 27.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 20.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 17.4 over 17 games and TEN at 28.1 over 17 games.

HOU: 83.8 rushing yards allowed per game to TEN's 122.8

Houston gives up 83.8 rushing yards a game, Tennessee 122.8, over four games each. Without opponent detail it is hard to tell how much is schedule. The Texans have been the sturdier run defence, so a Titans plan built on the ground has run into tougher resistance on paper.

HOU: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to TEN's 1.25

HOU is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 0.71 over 17 games and TEN at 1.12 over 17 games.

CLE has won 3 straight

Cleveland has won three straight after a loss to open the season, sitting at 3-1. They go to New York to face a Jets team on a three-game losing streak, so the two teams are heading in opposite directions over the same stretch. The sheet does not name the opponents behind those wins, and four games is short, so check whether the market is paying too much for the hot streak.

DEN: 46.8 penalty yards per game to LAC's 72.3

DEN is at 46.8 penalty yards per game over 4 games; LAC is at 72.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DEN was at 67.6 over 17 games and LAC at 46.3 over 17 games.

LV: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to NE's 2.25

LV is at 3.75 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; NE is at 2.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season LV was at 2.12 over 17 games and NE at 3.71 over 17 games.

PIT: 209.5 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 261.3

Pittsburgh is allowing 209.5 passing yards a game, Indianapolis 261.3, over four games. The sheet gives no opponent context, so schedule may explain some of it. The Steelers have been the tougher pass defence so far in this matchup.

DAL: 5.53 yards per play to TB's 4.67

Dallas is gaining 5.53 yards a play over 4 games, a little under its 5.96 last season, while Tampa Bay is at 4.67 after 5.12. The Cowboys showed their big-play side last game with 4 plays of 20+ yards, led by Dak Prescott's 53-yarder to George Pickens and a 30-yarder to CeeDee Lamb. Tampa Bay managed 2, both from Jalon Daniels. At home, Dallas is the side more likely to hit chunk plays, and its number could tick up toward last season.

WSH: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NYG's 1.25

NYG is at 1.25 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season NYG was at 1 over 17 games and WSH at 1.35 over 17 games.

DET: 0.25 turnovers committed per game to ARI's 1

DET is at 0.25 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 0.88 over 17 games and ARI at 1.24 over 17 games.

NYG: 2 takeaways per game to WSH's 1.25

The Giants force 2 takeaways a game, Washington 1.25, over four games. Turnovers are streaky and four games is not much, so this gap may shrink. It gives the Giants a slight edge in creating short fields.

LAC: 1.75 takeaways per game to DEN's 1

The Chargers average 1.75 takeaways a game, Denver 1, over four games. That is a small, luck-heavy stat on a short sample. It leans toward Los Angeles as the defence more likely to flip a possession.

DAL: 8.3 sack yards lost per game to TB's 18.5

TB is at 18.5 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; DAL is at 8.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 15.9 over 17 games and DAL at 16 over 17 games.

IND: 25.5 points per game to PIT's 19.3

IND is at 25.5 points per game over 4 games; PIT is at 19.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season IND was at 27.4 over 17 games and PIT at 23.4 over 17 games.

SF: 45.5% red-zone scoring allowed to SEA's 66.7%

SF is at 45.5% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; SEA is at 66.7% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

NYJ has lost 3 straight

The Jets won their opener and have lost three straight since, sitting at 1-3. They host Cleveland, who has won three in a row over that same stretch. Four games is a small sample and there is no opponent detail on the sheet, so the trend is real but short, and a home team on a skid against a hot visitor is a spot where the line can overcorrect.

SF: 4.85 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 3.78

SF is at 4.85 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; SEA is at 3.78 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 3.81 over 17 games and SEA at 4.17 over 17 games.

ARI: 1.75 takeaways per game to DET's 1

Arizona averages 1.75 takeaways a game, Detroit 1, through four games. Takeaway rates are volatile and four games is a thin base. On current form the Cardinals are the likelier side to force a giveaway.

ARI has lost 3 straight

Arizona won its first game and has lost three straight, now 1-3 heading into a home game with Detroit. The sheet gives no detail on who those losses came against. Four games is a short run, so the question for a bettor is whether three straight losses has moved the price on a home team further than it should.

DAL: 0.25 fumbles lost per game to TB's 1

TB is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 4 games; DAL is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 0.29 over 17 games and DAL at 0.53 over 17 games.

SF: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to SEA's 1.25

SF is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; SEA is at 1.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 1.29 over 17 games and SEA at 1.65 over 17 games.

Dalvin Tomlinson (DT) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Dalvin Tomlinson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Dondrea Tillman (LB) is questionable for DEN

DEN lists Dondrea Tillman as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

BAL: 215.3 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 264.8

BAL is at 215.3 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; ATL is at 264.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Jayden Reed (WR) is on injured reserve for GB

The Packers are expected to place Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 30.

Anthony Campbell (DT) is questionable for GB

GB lists Anthony Campbell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

TEN: 209.8 passing yards allowed per game to HOU's 260

Tennessee is allowing 209.8 passing yards a game, Houston 260, over four games. No opponent detail is on the sheet, so schedule could account for some of it. The Titans' secondary has given up less through the air so far.

MIA: 104 rushing yards per game to CIN's 74.3

CIN is at 74.3 rushing yards per game over 4 games; MIA is at 104 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 93.6 over 17 games and MIA at 120.2 over 17 games.

Micah Parsons (DE) is pup-r for GB

Parsons (knee), per head coach Matt LaFleur, will not practice this week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Oct 5.

Kyler Gordon (CB) is pup-r for CHI

Gordon (calf) was estimated as a full participant on the Bears' official injury report Wednesday. Reported Oct 1.

Nick Cross (S) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Nick Cross as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Jaylin Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for WSH

The Commanders placed Lane (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.

Jaylon Carlies (LB) is questionable for IND

Indianapolis listed linebacker Jaylon Carlies as questionable on Oct 7 ahead of the trip to Pittsburgh. The report gives no injury or practice detail, so his role and the size of any loss are unclear. Questionable means he is uncertain to play, and the final call often comes close to kickoff. If you are looking at Steelers rushing or short-passing props, check the final inactive list before you act.

Kingsley Enagbare (LB) is questionable for NYJ

NYJ lists Kingsley Enagbare as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Kaden Elliss (LB) is questionable for NO

NO lists Kaden Elliss as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Anfernee Jennings (LB) is questionable for NO

NO lists Anfernee Jennings as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is on injured reserve for NO

The Saints are putting Etienne on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, so he will not play against Minnesota. Hamstrings can linger, and IR guarantees a multi-week absence. The sheet does not say who takes over the backfield. Expect New Orleans to lean on its other backs, and check who gets the first-team work before betting Saints rushing numbers.

Christian Barmore (DT) is questionable for NE

Barmore is an interior defensive tackle for New England, and he went on the report as questionable on Oct 6 ahead of Las Vegas coming to Foxborough. Questionable means a real chance he plays and a real chance he sits, so expect the answer close to game time. The sheet names no injury and no backup, so any bet built on his absence should wait for the final inactive list.

Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for LV

Thornton is on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury, and Klint Kubiak said Friday the hope is he returns to practice before the Week 5 trip to New England. Getting back to practice is the first step off IR, and a return to practice does not mean he plays that week. The sheet does not say who has handled his snaps. Until he is activated, price Raiders receivers as if he is out.

Storm Duck (CB) is pup-r for MIA

The Dolphins opened Duck's (knee) 21-day practice window Wednesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. Reported Oct 1.

Swayze Bozeman (LB) is questionable for CIN

CIN lists Swayze Bozeman as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

WSH: 1.75 sacks recorded per game to NYG's 0.75

Washington's pass rush gets home a little under twice a game, while the Giants have barely touched quarterbacks at 0.75 per game. Four games is a small sample for sacks, which swing a lot week to week, and there is no opponent detail here to say whether either line faced was soft. For this game, Washington's quarterback should have more time than New York's, which matters for anything built on clean pockets and longer throws.

LV: 3 sacks recorded per game to NE's 2

Las Vegas records 3 sacks a game, New England 2, over four games. It is a short sample with no opponent context. The Raiders' rush has been the more disruptive one, which raises the chance of stalled Patriots drives on obvious passing downs.

Kyle Dugger (S) is questionable for CIN

CIN lists Kyle Dugger as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Bryan Cook (S) is questionable for CIN

CIN lists Bryan Cook as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

B.J. Hill (DT) is questionable for CIN

CIN lists B.J. Hill as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

British Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for HOU

Brooks went on injured reserve Friday with a hamstring, so he is out against Tennessee and for at least the next few weeks. Houston's backfield carries on without him.

Azeez Al-Shaair (LB) is questionable for HOU

Houston listed Azeez Al-Shaair as questionable on Oct 6 for the game at Tennessee, with no injury named. A linebacker absence touches run defense and coverage of backs and tight ends, so check status before betting Titans rushing lines.

Zack Baun (LB) is questionable for PHI

PHI lists Zack Baun as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Marcus Epps (S) is questionable for PHI

PHI lists Marcus Epps as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Anthony Nelson (LB) is questionable for TB

TB lists Anthony Nelson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Rueben Bain Jr. (LB) is questionable for TB

TB lists Rueben Bain Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

Jalen McMillan (WR) is on injured reserve for TB

The Buccaneers placed McMillan (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 30.

CHI: 102.5 rushing yards allowed per game to GB's 139.3

CHI is at 102.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; GB is at 139.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Tank Bigsby (RB) is on injured reserve for PHI

The Eagles placed Bigsby (abdomen) on injured reserve Tuesday, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 6.

Antoine Winfield Jr.

Ribs · Did not practice

Baker Mayfield

Thumb · Did not practice

MIN (4-0) at NO (1-3)

Minnesota is 4-0 at +35 and 2-0 on the road. New Orleans is 1-3 at -23, has lost 2 straight and is 0-2 at home, so it has no home edge to lean on yet. A +35 margin over four games says the Vikings are winning by around nine a game, solid but less dominant than an unbeaten record can sound. The road and home splits both point the same way.

LV (3-1) at NE (2-2)

LV is 3-1, +31 points on the year, has lost 1 straight this season. NE is 2-2, -12 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. LV is 2-0 on the road; NE is 1-0 at home.

CIN (2-2) at MIA (0-4)

CIN is 2-2, +12 points on the year, has lost 2 straight this season. MIA is 0-4, -55 points on the year, has lost 4 straight this season. CIN is 1-1 on the road; MIA is 0-1 at home.

PHI (2-2) at JAX (3-1)

Jacksonville is 3-1 at +51 and 2-0 at home, so the record and margin agree. Philadelphia has lost 2 straight and is -18 at 2-2, though it has split its two road games. The Jaguars' numbers look like a team playing well. The Eagles' 2-2 record is the one that flatters here, given a negative margin and the current skid.

TB (0-4) at DAL (2-2)

Tampa Bay is 0-4 but only -20, an average of five points a loss, so the record undersells a team that has been close. Dallas is 2-2 at +10 and 1-1 at home. A winless team with that margin is a common candidate to stop the slide. The Bucs' record makes them look worse than the scoreboard has been, which is the angle to weigh against Dallas here.

Aaron Donald (DT) is questionable for LAR

LAR lists Aaron Donald as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

T.J. Sanders (DT) is questionable for BUF

Buffalo listed defensive tackle T.J. Sanders as questionable on Oct 6 ahead of the trip to the Rams, and the report gives no injury detail or note on when he last played. Questionable means it is uncertain whether he plays, so his status may not be settled until closer to kickoff. If Sanders sits, Buffalo has one fewer body in its interior line rotation, so check the final inactives before betting anything that leans on the Rams running inside.

Trey Hendrickson (LB) is questionable for BAL

Baltimore listed Trey Hendrickson as questionable on Oct 6 for the game at Atlanta, with no injury given. Pass rush is the thing at stake, so check his final status before betting Falcons quarterback or sack props.

Chazz Surratt (LB) is questionable for SEA

SEA lists Chazz Surratt as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

PIT has 3 more days of rest

Pittsburgh is at home on 5 days of rest and Indianapolis travels on just 2, which puts the road team in the tougher spot. Two days is mostly treatment and a light walkthrough, and adding a trip on top of it squeezes preparation further. That schedule gap is locked in. Factor it in when you weigh whether the Colts can stay sharp late and whether the Steelers get a cleaner, more specific game plan.

CLE has 3 more days of rest

Cleveland walks in with 5 days since its last game while the Jets have had only 2, so the visitors get the fresher legs and the extra practice time. A team on 2 days usually spends that window on recovery and a walkthrough, with little room to install anything new for this opponent. The gap is fixed once the schedule is set, so it holds through kickoff. Lean toward the side with more rest when you weigh late-game legs and how sharp the game plan looks.

Jadarian Price (RB) is on injured reserve for SEA

Price (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Oct 3.

Ty Okada (S) is questionable for SEA

SEA lists Ty Okada as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Mykel Williams (DE) is pup-r for SF

The 49ers opened Williams' (knee) 21-day practice window Wednesday to return from the reserve/PUP list, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Reported Sep 30.

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S) is questionable for ARI

Arizona lists Dadrion Taylor-Demerson as questionable on Oct 6 against Detroit, with no injury detail. If the safety sits, the Cardinals back end is thinner against the Lions, so confirm status before betting Detroit passing props.

Derwin James Jr. (S) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Derwin James Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Benjamin Morrison

Quadriceps · Did not practice

Chase McLaughlin

Groin · Did not practice

Drew Shelton

Hamstring · Did not practice

SirVocea Dennis

Ankle · Did not practice

Cobie Durant

Hamstring · Did not practice

DeMarvion Overshown

Hamstring · Did not practice

BUF: 53.3% third-down conversion rate to LAR's 43.1%

BUF is at 53.3% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAR is at 43.1% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 44.8% over 17 games and LAR at 39.6% over 17 games.

HOU: 63.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 53.8

HOU is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; TEN is at 53.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 64 over 17 games and TEN at 59.1 over 17 games.

CIN: 62.3 offensive plays per game to MIA's 52.5

CIN is at 62.3 offensive plays per game over 4 games; MIA is at 52.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 62.2 over 17 games and MIA at 55.8 over 17 games.

LAR: 20.8 points allowed per game to BUF's 26.8

Buffalo is allowing 26.8 points a game over 4 games, well up from 21.5 last season, while the Rams sit at 20.8, almost exactly their 20.4 from a year ago. The Rams defense looks like itself. Buffalo's jump is a 4-game spike above its full-season norm, so some improvement is likely. On the road in Los Angeles, the Bills defense is the unit more likely to give up points until that number settles.

DEN: 0.75 interceptions thrown per game to LAC's 1.5

DEN is at 0.75 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; LAC is at 1.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DEN was at 0.65 over 17 games and LAC at 0.82 over 17 games.

NE: 58.3% red-zone scoring allowed to LV's 76.9%

LV is at 76.9% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; NE is at 58.3% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

DET: 24.5 first downs per game to ARI's 19.8

DET is at 24.5 first downs per game over 4 games; ARI is at 19.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 20.4 over 17 games and ARI at 19.5 over 17 games.

DET: 72.2% red-zone scoring rate to ARI's 57.1%

DET is at 72.2% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; ARI is at 57.1% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 62.5% over 17 games and ARI at 54.1% over 17 games.

BUF: 68.8% red-zone scoring rate to LAR's 53.3%

BUF is at 68.8% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; LAR is at 53.3% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 66.2% over 17 games and LAR at 63.2% over 17 games.

LAR: 69 offensive plays per game to BUF's 59.5

BUF is at 59.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; LAR is at 69 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 63.6 over 17 games and LAR at 63.9 over 17 games.

IND: 26.3 penalty yards per game to PIT's 49.5

IND is at 26.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; PIT is at 49.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season IND was at 51.2 over 17 games and PIT at 47.2 over 17 games.

Brian Branch (S) is pup-r for DET

Branch is on the PUP list working back from an Achilles injury, and Dan Campbell said Friday he is close to returning. Being close does not settle whether he plays against Arizona, so watch whether Detroit activates him from the list this week. When he does return, the Lions get back a versatile safety, though a first game back from an Achilles may come with limited snaps.

GB: 4.97 yards per play allowed to CHI's 5.68

CHI is at 5.68 yards per play allowed over 4 games; GB is at 4.97 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

BAL: 6.58 yards per play to ATL's 5.88

Baltimore is gaining 6.58 yards a play over 4 games and Atlanta 5.88, both up from last season at 5.92 and 5.38. Both offenses are running hotter than their full-season norms, so expect some cooling on each side. Baltimore keeps the efficiency edge on the road, and with both units moving the ball well, this looks like a game where stops are harder to come by than last year's numbers suggest.

CHI lead the series with GB since 2025

CHI has taken 2 of the last 3. Jan 10, 2026: GB 27 at CHI 31 (playoffs). Dec 20, 2025: GB 16 at CHI 22. Dec 7, 2025: CHI 21 at GB 28.

SEA lead the series with SF since 2025

SEA has taken 2 of the last 3. Jan 17, 2026: SF 6 at SEA 41 (playoffs). Jan 3, 2026: SEA 13 at SF 3. Sep 7, 2025: SF 17 at SEA 13.

M.J. Stewart (S) is pup-r for HOU

Stewart is on the reserve physically unable to perform list with a knee injury, and he practiced in full Thursday. A full practice is a strong sign he is close, though he still needs to be activated before he can play at Tennessee. Watch for a roster move before kickoff, and assume he is out until it happens.

Kenneth Grant (DT) is ir-r for MIA

Head coach Jeff Hafley said Friday that Grant (leg) could begin practicing next week, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports. Reported Oct 2.

Jackson Powers-Johnson (G) is questionable for LV

LV lists Jackson Powers-Johnson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Kalia Davis (DT) is ir-r for CLE

The Browns opened Davis' (quadriceps) 21-day practice window Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.

Teven Jenkins (G) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Teven Jenkins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Dylan Parham (G) is questionable for NYJ

NYJ lists Dylan Parham as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Sam Cosmi (G) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Sam Cosmi as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Aaron Banks (G) is questionable for GB

GB lists Aaron Banks as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Kayode Awosika (G) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Kayode Awosika as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Ben Bartch (G) is questionable for DET

DET lists Ben Bartch as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

BAL: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to ATL's 2.5

BAL is at 3.75 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; ATL is at 2.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BAL was at 3.47 over 17 games and ATL at 2.94 over 17 games.

DET (2-2) at ARI (1-3)

Detroit is 2-2 at -8 and 0-2 on the road, so the record is roughly fair and away form is a concern. Arizona has lost 3 straight at -30 and lost its only home game. Neither team shows momentum. This is a spot where the Lions' road struggles and the Cardinals' skid offset, so the gap is smaller than one team's name might suggest.

HOU: 20.3 first downs per game to TEN's 15.8

HOU is at 20.3 first downs per game over 4 games; TEN is at 15.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 19 over 17 games and TEN at 15.4 over 17 games.

LV: 250 team passing yards per game to NE's 213.8

LV is at 250 team passing yards per game over 4 games; NE is at 213.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season LV was at 167.7 over 17 games and NE at 250.5 over 17 games.

SF: 137.3 rushing yards per game to SEA's 110.3

SF is at 137.3 rushing yards per game over 4 games; SEA is at 110.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 106.9 over 17 games and SEA at 123.3 over 17 games.

NYJ: 193.3 passing yards allowed per game to CLE's 235.3

CLE is at 235.3 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NYJ is at 193.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

PHI: 5.23 yards per play allowed to JAX's 5.92

PHI is at 5.23 yards per play allowed over 4 games; JAX is at 5.92 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

SF @ SEA carries a 47.5 market total

At 47.5, the market prices this 4 points above the 43.5 slate median, a game with somewhat more scoring than a typical one on this card. The gap is small, so the number leans on normal offensive production more than a shootout. If both defenses hold early and drives end in field goals, the under comes into play quickly, while a couple of quick touchdowns put the over in reach.

HOU @ TEN carries a 39.5 market total

The 39.5 total, 4 points below the 43.5 median, says the market expects a grind: fewer possessions ending in touchdowns and more punts and field goals. For that to crack, it takes a short field off a turnover or a big play or two that skips the slow march. In a low-total game, one defensive or special teams score can push it over on its own.

TB @ DAL carries a 47.5 market total

At 47.5, this sits 4 points above the 43.5 slate median: a game expected to score a bit more than a typical one, without the shootout pricing of the biggest totals. A gap that small can close on a single stalled drive or a missed kick. Think of it as close to an average game with a slight lean toward points, where one turnover or one long touchdown can swing the result either way.

BAL: 29 points per game to ATL's 24

BAL is at 29 points per game over 4 games; ATL is at 24 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BAL was at 24.9 over 17 games and ATL at 20.8 over 17 games.

BUF: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to LAR's 50%

BUF is at 75% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAR is at 50% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 59.4% over 17 games and LAR at 66.7% over 17 games.

NE: 104 rushing yards allowed per game to LV's 134.5

LV is at 134.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NE is at 104 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Hunter Long (TE) is on injured reserve for ARI

The Cardinals placed Long (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.

CIN: 30:49 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:38

CIN is at 30:49 time of possession per game over 4 games; MIA is at 27:38 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 30:08 over 17 games and MIA at 28:57 over 17 games.

Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. October 6 is his listed return date, not a confirmed activation. His 5.16 ERA gives me little reason to tie up a roster spot while his availability remains uncertain. Pass on the stash.

JAX: 32.6% third downs allowed to PHI's 40.4%

PHI is at 40.4% third downs allowed over 4 games; JAX is at 32.6% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Jalon Daniels is the projected starting quarterback for TB

Through 2 games in 2026, Jalon Daniels threw for 148 passing yards, completed 63.3% of his passes and averaged 4.93 yards per attempt. His 1-3 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.

Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL

Through 4 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 1065 passing yards, completed 70% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI

Through 4 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 713 passing yards, completed 59.6% of his passes and averaged 6.25 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

Through 4 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 843 passing yards, completed 69.2% of his passes and averaged 8.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU

Through 4 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 1141 passing yards, completed 61.6% of his passes and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN

Through 4 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 726 passing yards, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN

Through 4 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 1171 passing yards, completed 71.3% of his passes and averaged 7.46 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA

Through 4 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 712 passing yards, completed 56.3% of his passes and averaged 6.91 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV

Through 4 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 1026 passing yards, completed 64.6% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

Through 4 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 854 passing yards, completed 62.4% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-7 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN

Through 3 games in 2026, Kyler Murray threw for 433 passing yards, completed 63.4% of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO

Through 4 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 1203 passing yards, completed 67.2% of his passes and averaged 6.68 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE

Through 4 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 855 passing yards, completed 69.6% of his passes and averaged 7.43 yards per attempt. His 6-2 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.

Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ

Through 4 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 902 passing yards, completed 72.7% of his passes and averaged 7.71 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND

Through 4 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 754 passing yards, completed 63.6% of his passes and averaged 5.71 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT

Through 4 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 999 passing yards, completed 57.5% of his passes and averaged 6.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Jameis Winston is the projected starting quarterback for NYG

Through 3 games in 2026, Jameis Winston threw for 479 passing yards, completed 55.1% of his passes and averaged 6.14 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 567 yards, completed 56.1% and averaged 8.59 yards per attempt, 2-2 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Tyson Bagent is the projected starting quarterback for CHI

Through 2 games in 2026, Tyson Bagent threw for 322 passing yards, completed 69.8% of his passes and averaged 7.49 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 47 yards, completed 75% and averaged 11.75 yards per attempt, 0-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB

Through 4 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 1041 passing yards, completed 56.5% of his passes and averaged 6.76 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN

Through 4 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 819 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 6.07 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC

Through 4 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 816 passing yards, completed 59.7% of his passes and averaged 6.86 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET

Through 4 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 1214 passing yards, completed 67.7% of his passes and averaged 7.54 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI

Through 4 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 818 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 5.38 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF

Through 4 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 1007 passing yards, completed 69.9% of his passes and averaged 8.91 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA

Through 3 games in 2026, Sam Darnold threw for 560 passing yards, completed 65.2% of his passes and averaged 8.12 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL

Through 2 games in 2026, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 479 passing yards, completed 73.3% of his passes and averaged 10.64 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 1982 yards, completed 60.1% and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt, 9-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF

Through 4 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 1039 passing yards, completed 66.4% of his passes and averaged 8.73 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR

Through 4 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 1189 passing yards, completed 61.1% of his passes and averaged 7.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

HOU: 5.5 yards per play to TEN's 4.85

Houston gains more on each snap than Tennessee, 5.5 yards against 4.85 through four games, and both teams are up from last season's 5.1 and 4.38. Houston's last game had 8 plays of 20-plus yards, with C.J. Stroud hitting Jaylin Noel for 52 and Nico Collins for 45, so the Texans can flip field position fast. Tennessee leans on Cam Ward finding Carnell Tate, who caught two of its four big plays last game. If Houston keeps hitting chunk throws, Tennessee has to keep pace with a smaller-play offense.

NO: 5.03 yards per play to MIN's 4.4

New Orleans is gaining more per snap than Minnesota, 5.03 yards against 4.4 over four games. The Saints are right where they were last season at 5.05, while the Vikings have slipped from 4.82, so this gap is more about Minnesota sagging than New Orleans rising. Both teams had three plays of 20-plus yards last game, and Tyler Shough's 44-yarder to Chris Olave was the longest. Four games is enough for a lean, and Minnesota's number has room to move back up.

Tyler Smith (G) is ir-r for DAL

Smith (thumb) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 6.

Brett Thorson (P) is questionable for MIN

MIN lists Brett Thorson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Scott Matlock (FB) is ir-r for LAC

The Chargers opened Matlock's (undisclosed) 21-day practice window Monday, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. Reported Oct 6.

Branson Taylor (G) is ir-r for LAC

The Chargers designated Taylor (undisclosed) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.

NO: 26.3 points per game to MIN's 21.5

MIN is at 21.5 points per game over 4 games; NO is at 26.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season MIN was at 20.2 over 17 games and NO at 18 over 17 games.

Terrance Ferguson (TE) is on injured reserve for LAR

Ferguson (ankle) is out for Sunday's game against Philadelphia, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Oct 2.

LAR: 31:19 time of possession per game to BUF's 28:06

BUF is at 28:06 time of possession per game over 4 games; LAR is at 31:19 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 33:09 over 17 games and LAR at 30:46 over 17 games.

DET: 56.8 penalty yards per game to ARI's 75

DET is at 56.8 penalty yards per game over 4 games; ARI is at 75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 42.2 over 17 games and ARI at 49.5 over 17 games.

MIN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NO's 77.8%

MIN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; NO is at 77.8% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season MIN was at 62.5% over 17 games and NO at 41.2% over 17 games.

BUF: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1.75

BUF is at 2.5 sacks recorded per game over 4 games; LAR is at 1.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

CLE: 3 sacks recorded per game to NYJ's 2.25

Cleveland is getting three sacks a game, ahead of the Jets at 2.25, both over four games. Both pass rushes are producing, and sack counts are streaky in a four-game window. The Jets' quarterback faces the hotter rush here, so pressure-driven outcomes like sacks and rushed throws lean toward Cleveland's defense.

CHI: 5.75 yards per play to GB's 5.15

Chicago is getting 5.75 yards a snap to Green Bay's 5.15 through four games, nearly the same as its 5.71 last season. The Packers are the side that moved, down from 5.61. The styles split: Chicago's last game had six 20-plus plays, mostly Tyson Bagent throwing to Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, while Green Bay's best plays came on runs by Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks. At Lambeau, the question for a bettor is whether the Packers can grind on the ground long enough to keep Chicago's big-play passing off the field.

LAR: 1.5 sacks taken per game to BUF's 2.25

BUF is at 2.25 sacks taken per game over 4 games; LAR is at 1.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 2.86 over 17 games and LAR at 1.77 over 17 games.

CIN: 45.3% third-down conversion rate to MIA's 38%

CIN is at 45.3% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; MIA is at 38% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 43.4% over 17 games and MIA at 34.9% over 17 games.

Garrett Mitchell: .560 OPS in Last 15 Days

Mitchell has a .560 OPS over the last 15 days in just 36 AB, against a .771 season mark. A window that thin moves a lot on a couple of hits, so expect him to drift back toward .771. For his props in San Diego, the season line says more than this short cold spell.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

NYG: 205.3 passing yards allowed per game to WSH's 242.5

NYG is at 205.3 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; WSH is at 242.5 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

ARI: 45.5% third downs allowed to DET's 52.8%

DET is at 52.8% third downs allowed over 4 games; ARI is at 45.5% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

NYJ: 4.88 yards per play allowed to CLE's 5.47

Per play, the Jets give up 4.88 yards and Cleveland gives up 5.47 over four games each. Yards per play is a steadier measure than totals because it strips out pace and how many snaps a team faced, so this gap is more believable than most four-game numbers. The Jets defense looks like the tougher unit to move against, which leans toward the Cleveland offense having the harder day.

LAR: 33.3% third downs allowed to BUF's 40.7%

The Rams let opponents convert a third of their third downs, while Buffalo allows 40.7% over four games each. Third-down rates bounce around on small samples, but that gap means Rams drives get extended more often against this Bills defense. More sustained Rams possessions points toward time of possession and total plays tilting their way.

Jonah Coleman (RB) is on injured reserve for DEN

Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 26.

Braxton Jones (OT) is on injured reserve for CHI

The Bears placed Jones (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.

Alec Pierce (WR) is on injured reserve for IND

Pierce is on injured reserve with a left heel injury, and Shane Steichen said Monday he did not need surgery and is still rehabbing. No surgery is the better outcome, though there is no return timeline here. He will not play at Pittsburgh, so Colts receiver props should assume he is out. The sheet does not say who takes his targets.

BUF: 1.25 takeaways per game to LAR's 0.75

BUF is at 1.25 takeaways per game over 4 games; LAR is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

HOU: 6.7 yards per pass attempt to TEN's 5.72

HOU is at 6.7 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 5.72 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 6.2 over 17 games and TEN at 4.5 over 17 games.

CIN: 6.6 yards per pass attempt to MIA's 5.6

CIN is at 6.6 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; MIA is at 5.6 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 5.81 over 17 games and MIA at 6 over 17 games.

BAL: 1.25 takeaways per game to ATL's 0.75

Baltimore forces 1.25 takeaways a game to Atlanta's 0.75 over four games. Turnover numbers swing wildly in short windows and rarely hold at the same rate, so this is a light edge at best. Give it less weight than yardage numbers when sizing up this game.

CHI: 1.5 takeaways per game to GB's 1

CHI is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 4 games; GB is at 1 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

CIN: 1.25 takeaways per game to MIA's 0.75

Cincinnati forces 1.25 takeaways a game, Miami 0.75, over four games each. Takeaways are among the least stable defensive numbers, so this gap could close fast. A turnover or two can swing a game, but this sample is too thin to build much around either defense's ball-hawking.

TB: 1 takeaways per game to DAL's 0.5

TB is at 1 takeaways per game over 4 games; DAL is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

TB: 204.3 passing yards allowed per game to DAL's 239.3

TB is at 204.3 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; DAL is at 239.3 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

WSH: 42% third downs allowed to NYG's 48.9%

NYG is at 48.9% third downs allowed over 4 games; WSH is at 42% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

Demarcus Robinson (WR) is on injured reserve for SF

The 49ers placed Robinson (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

Paris Johnson Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for ARI

The Cardinals placed Johnson (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.

Cade Mays (C) is ir-r for DET

Mays (wrist) is targeting a Week 7 return from injured reserve, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports. Reported Sep 29.

LAR: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to BUF's 1

BUF is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 4 games; LAR is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 0.53 over 17 games and LAR at 0.41 over 17 games.

DAL: 4 red-zone trips per game to TB's 3

TB is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; DAL is at 4 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 2.94 over 17 games and DAL at 3.82 over 17 games.

DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to ARI's 3.5

DET is at 4.5 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; ARI is at 3.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 3.76 over 17 games and ARI at 3.59 over 17 games.

PIT: 5.05 yards per play to IND's 4.5

Pittsburgh is gaining 5.05 yards a play to Indianapolis's 4.5 over four games, and the Colts are the big change, down from 5.77 last season. In the last game, Indy managed one play of 20-plus yards while Aaron Rodgers hit six, including 49 to Roman Wilson and two to DK Metcalf. A drop that steep over four games could rebound, so the Colts' number is the one more likely to move. At Pittsburgh, the Steelers have the clearer path to chunk yardage.

SF: 30.5 points per game to SEA's 26.3

SF is at 30.5 points per game over 4 games; SEA is at 26.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 25.7 over 17 games and SEA at 28.4 over 17 games.

BUF (3-1) at LAR (2-2)

Buffalo is 3-1 at +20 and won its only road game, but it lost its last game. The Rams are 2-2 at +2, a dead-even team, and 1-1 at home. The Bills' margin supports their record without being dominant. The Rams look like exactly what 2-2 says, so this comes down to whether Buffalo's edge in margin is worth what the market asks.

A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

Brown was spotted Monday in the Patriots' locker room walking without a limp and wearing a small wrap on his injured right ankle, Taylor Kyles of CLNSMedia.com reports. Reported Sep 28.

Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.

PIT: 21.8 points allowed per game to IND's 26

IND is at 26 points allowed per game over 4 games; PIT is at 21.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season IND was at 24.2 over 17 games and PIT at 22.8 over 17 games.

Jordan Davis (DT) is questionable for PHI

PHI lists Jordan Davis as questionable on the injury report.

Jaylin Smith (CB) is on injured reserve for HOU

Houston moved cornerback Jaylin Smith to injured reserve with a hamstring injury, reported Oct 7, so he is out for the game at Tennessee and for at least the next several weeks. IR settles his status, so there is nothing to wait on for this one. The sheet does not say who takes his snaps, so watch how the Texans line up their corners against the Titans before reading much into Tennessee's passing numbers.

Andrei Iosivas (WR) is on injured reserve for CIN

The Bengals placed Iosivas (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

De'Von Achane (RB) is on injured reserve for MIA

The Dolphins placed Achane (knee) on injured reserve Monday. Reported Sep 28.

Jack Bech (WR) is on injured reserve for LV

The Raiders placed Bech (forearm) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 29.

DEN: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to LAC's 1

DEN is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 4 games; LAC is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DEN was at 0.35 over 17 games and LAC at 0.41 over 17 games.

NYJ: 0.25 fumbles lost per game to CLE's 0.75

CLE is at 0.75 fumbles lost per game over 4 games; NYJ is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CLE was at 0.41 over 17 games and NYJ at 0.59 over 17 games.

Manny Machado: .567 OPS in Last 15 Days

Machado has a .567 OPS over the last 15 days in 51 AB, a 0.144 drop from his .711 season mark. That is the smallest gap in this group, and his season number is middling, so this looks like a mild slide. For his props against Milwaukee, anchor on the .711 season mark and let the recent dip nudge you only slightly lower.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB

Ethan Pocic (C) is on injured reserve for BAL

Baltimore put its center Pocic on injured reserve Saturday with a knee injury, so he misses the Atlanta game. A change at center affects snap calls and interior protection. With guard Gwyn also going to IR the same day, the Ravens interior line is thin this week. That matters for anything tied to Baltimore running inside or protecting its quarterback.

Ronnie Rivers (RB) is on injured reserve for LAR

The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

WSH: 4.22 yards per rush attempt to NYG's 3.57

NYG is at 3.57 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; WSH is at 4.22 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season NYG was at 4.31 over 17 games and WSH at 4.81 over 17 games.

HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to TEN's 0.5

HOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; TEN is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and TEN at 0.47 over 17 games.

WSH: 0.25 interceptions thrown per game to NYG's 0.75

NYG is at 0.75 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; WSH is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season NYG was at 0.59 over 17 games and WSH at 0.71 over 17 games.

TB: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to DAL's 0.75

TB is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; DAL is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 1.71 over 17 games and DAL at 2.06 over 17 games.

DET: 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game to ARI's 1

DET is at 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 1.82 over 17 games and ARI at 1.65 over 17 games.

TB: 24 points allowed per game to DAL's 28

TB is at 24 points allowed per game over 4 games; DAL is at 28 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 24.2 over 17 games and DAL at 30.1 over 17 games.

TEN: 4.08 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.45

HOU is at 3.45 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 4.08 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and TEN at 4.19 over 17 games.

IND: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to PIT's 0.75

IND is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; PIT is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season IND was at 1.59 over 17 games and PIT at 1.35 over 17 games.

CIN: 21.3 points allowed per game to MIA's 25.3

CIN is at 21.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; MIA is at 25.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CIN was at 28.9 over 17 games and MIA at 24.9 over 17 games.

NYJ: 0 interceptions thrown per game to CLE's 0.5

CLE is at 0.5 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; NYJ is at 0 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CLE was at 1.06 over 17 games and NYJ at 0.76 over 17 games.

ARI: 69.2% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 82.4%

DET is at 82.4% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; ARI is at 69.2% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

LV: 30 penalty yards per game to NE's 46

LV is at 30 penalty yards per game over 4 games; NE is at 46 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season LV was at 53 over 17 games and NE at 50.2 over 17 games.

HOU: 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game to TEN's 1

HOU is at 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season HOU was at 1.12 over 17 games and TEN at 2.06 over 17 games.

SF: 0.25 interceptions thrown per game to SEA's 0.75

SF is at 0.25 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; SEA is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 0.94 over 17 games and SEA at 0.88 over 17 games.

JAX: 30:53 time of possession per game to PHI's 28:33

PHI is at 28:33 time of possession per game over 4 games; JAX is at 30:53 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season PHI was at 30:11 over 17 games and JAX at 31:56 over 17 games.

ARI: 10.3 sack yards lost per game to DET's 16.3

DET is at 16.3 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; ARI is at 10.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DET was at 20.3 over 17 games and ARI at 24.9 over 17 games.

Anthony Nelson

Illness · Limited practice

Ko Kieft

Elbow · Limited practice

Tyler Smith

Thumb · Limited practice

BAL (3-1) at ATL (2-2)

BAL is 3-1, +20 points on the year, has won 2 straight this season. ATL is 2-2, +4 points on the year, has won 2 straight this season. BAL is 2-0 on the road; ATL is 0-1 at home.

Edgerrin Cooper (LB) is on injured reserve for GB

Cooper (Achilles) was placed on injured reserve by the Packers on Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.

Warren Brinson (DT) is on injured reserve for GB

Green Bay placed Brinson (calf/groin) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 3.

Noah Sewell (LB) is pup-r for CHI

The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell (Achilles) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.

Shemar Turner (DT) is pup-r for CHI

The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Turner (knee) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.

Derrick Harmon (DT) is on injured reserve for PIT

The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 5.

Brenden Schooler (S) is nfi-r for NE

The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window for Schooler (back) on Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Mario Edwards Jr. (DT) is on injured reserve for HOU

The Texans placed Edwards on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Oct 1.

Caleb Ransaw (S) is on injured reserve for JAX

The Jaguars placed Ransaw (knee) on their injured reserve list Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.

Jonathan Bullard (DT) is on injured reserve for DAL

The Cowboys placed Bullard (calf) on injured reserve Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. Reported Oct 1.

Jalen Thompson (S) is on injured reserve for DAL

The Cowboys placed Thompson (hamstring) on injured reserve Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. Reported Sep 30.

TB: 49.8 penalty yards per game to DAL's 64.3

TB is at 49.8 penalty yards per game over 4 games; DAL is at 64.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season TB was at 43.4 over 17 games and DAL at 66.8 over 17 games.

LAC: 121.8 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 142.8

DEN is at 142.8 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; LAC is at 121.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

BUF: 6.58 yards per play to LAR's 6.1

Buffalo is gaining 6.58 yards a snap to the Rams' 6.1 over four games, a big jump from Buffalo's 5.94 last season. The Rams sit right at their 6.15 from a year ago, so they are who they were. Both offenses move the ball well, which points to an efficient game on both sides in Los Angeles. Buffalo's surge over four games is the number more likely to come back down a bit.

CIN: 5.65 yards per play to MIA's 5.15

Cincinnati is getting 5.65 yards a play to Miami's 5.15 through four games, up from 5.23 last season, while Miami has dipped from 5.4. Joe Burrow spread his big plays around last game, three passes of 26 to 29 yards to three receivers. Miami's only 20-plus play was a 53-yard run by Ollie Gordon II, which props up its average more than a steady passing game would. That makes Miami's number fragile and Cincinnati's spread-out passing the more repeatable profile.

Gavin Stone

Gavin Stone is on the Dodgers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury. His listed return date is today, October 6, but that isn’t a promise he’ll be activated. With no season line available, I’m not spending an active roster spot on this stash. Stash only in a spare IL slot; otherwise pass.

LV: 53.3% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 44.4%

LV is at 53.3% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; NE is at 44.4% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season LV was at 50% over 17 games and NE at 57.1% over 17 games.

SEA: 4 red-zone trips per game to SF's 3.25

SF is at 3.25 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; SEA is at 4 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season SF was at 3.88 over 17 games and SEA at 3.47 over 17 games.

PHI: 48.3 penalty yards per game to JAX's 61.5

PHI is at 48.3 penalty yards per game over 4 games; JAX is at 61.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season PHI was at 63.1 over 17 games and JAX at 63.5 over 17 games.

IND: 37.7% third-down conversion rate to PIT's 32%

IND is at 37.7% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; PIT is at 32% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season IND was at 42.6% over 17 games and PIT at 40% over 17 games.

DEN: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to LAC's 33.3%

DEN is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAC is at 33.3% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DEN was at 50% over 17 games and LAC at 57.1% over 17 games.

Nick Pivetta: 1.38 ERA over his last 3 starts

Pivetta has allowed 2 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 starts, with 15 strikeouts, so hitters are barely scoring and missing plenty. Three starts is short, and 13 innings across them means he is not working deep, which leaves real innings to the bullpen. His 2.86 season ERA says this is a hot version of a pitcher who has been good all year. Against Milwaukee, the strikeouts are the strongest part of the form, and the late innings fall to San Diego's relievers.

P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

IND: 29.2% third downs allowed to PIT's 34.8%

Indianapolis lets opponents convert 29.2% of third downs, Pittsburgh 34.8%, both over four games. Both defenses are getting off the field, and third-down rates shift quickly in a four-game sample. Expect fewer long drives on both sides, which nudges toward a slower, lower-possession game.

IND: 3 red-zone trips per game to PIT's 2.25

IND is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; PIT is at 2.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season IND was at 3.88 over 17 games and PIT at 3 over 17 games.

Josh Oliver (TE) is on injured reserve for MIN

The Vikings placed Oliver (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.

DEN: 23.5 points allowed per game to LAC's 26.5

DEN is at 23.5 points allowed per game over 4 games; LAC is at 26.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DEN was at 18.3 over 17 games and LAC at 20 over 17 games.

LAC: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to DEN's 2

DEN is at 2 sacks recorded per game over 4 games; LAC is at 2.5 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

DEN: 39.6% third-down conversion rate to LAC's 34.6%

DEN is at 39.6% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; LAC is at 34.6% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season DEN was at 41.2% over 17 games and LAC at 45.8% over 17 games.

BUF: 7.73 yards per pass attempt to LAR's 7

BUF is at 7.73 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; LAR is at 7 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season BUF was at 6.88 over 17 games and LAR at 7.24 over 17 games.

LAR: 58.3% red-zone scoring allowed to BUF's 68.8%

BUF is at 68.8% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; LAR is at 58.3% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

LV: 39.6% third-down conversion rate to NE's 34.6%

LV is at 39.6% third-down conversion rate over 4 games; NE is at 34.6% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season LV was at 33.8% over 17 games and NE at 42.9% over 17 games.

LV: 21.8 first downs per game to NE's 19.3

LV is at 21.8 first downs per game over 4 games; NE is at 19.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season LV was at 15.1 over 17 games and NE at 21.2 over 17 games.

PIT: 112.8 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 131

IND is at 131 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; PIT is at 112.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

TB: 1.5 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 1

TB is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 4 games; DAL is at 1 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 5.

CHI: 6.83 yards per pass attempt to GB's 6.1

CHI is at 6.83 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; GB is at 6.1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 5. Last season CHI was at 6.46 over 17 games and GB at 6.85 over 17 games.

Jovaughn Gwyn (G) is on injured reserve for BAL

The Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.

Jared Ivey (LB) is inactive for ATL

ATL lists Jared Ivey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

Donovan Jackson (G) is on injured reserve for MIN

Jackson (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Vikings on Tuesday. Reported Oct 7.

David Njoku (TE) is on injured reserve for LAC

The Chargers placed Njoku (fibula) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.

Will Johnson (CB) is on injured reserve for ARI

The Cardinals placed Johnson (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 23.

Jalen Davis (CB) is on injured reserve for CIN

The Bengals placed Davis (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 29.

Nick Samac (C) is on injured reserve for MIN

The Vikings placed Samac (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 26.

Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for NO

Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 26.

Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) is on injured reserve for GB

The Packers placed Bako-Bewele (knee) on injured reserve Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 29.

ATL is on a short week

Baltimore has had 2 days since its last game and Atlanta just 1, so both come in drained and short on preparation. In that spot teams usually keep the plan simple and focus on getting bodies recovered. The Ravens carry the travel, the Falcons the slightly shorter turnaround. Rest is close to a wash here, so weigh the matchup more heavily than the calendar.

NO is on a short week

Both teams are on very short rest: Minnesota at 2 days since its last game, New Orleans at 1. With that little time, neither side has room for much more than recovery and a basic walkthrough, so expect simpler game plans. The Vikings also have to travel. Rest is close enough that it shouldn't swing this game on its own, so lean on the matchup itself.

Trey Pipkins III (OT) is on injured reserve for LAC

The Chargers placed Pipkins (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

Jordan Hancock (CB) is on injured reserve for BUF

The Bills placed Hancock (hamstring) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 26.

Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR

Garrett (knee) is facing a six-week recovery from surgery on his left knee, but the pass rusher is determined to be back before then, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and ESPN reports. Reported Sep 27.

HOU (0-4) at TEN (0-4), a division game

Two 0-4 teams meet in a division game, with Houston at -25 and Tennessee at -28, so both have lost mostly close games. The Titans are 0-2 at home, the Texans 0-1 on the road. Margins that small usually mean at least one of these streaks breaks soon. With nearly identical numbers, the records give a bettor almost nothing to separate them.

Leo Chenal (LB) is on injured reserve for WSH

The Commanders placed Chenal (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 29.

LAD have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 9

LAD scored in the first inning in 0 of the 9 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Chris Sale: 1.33 ERA, .248 opponent AVG across 27.0 IP, 2 HR; Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3.54 ERA, .225 opponent AVG across 28.0 IP, 4 HR.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

P.J. Locke (S) is on injured reserve for DAL

The Cowboys placed Locke (foot) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

Jake Hummel (LB) is on injured reserve for HOU

The Texans placed Hummel (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Sep 26.

Brian Burns (LB) is on injured reserve for NYG

The Giants placed Burns (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 29.

Thomas Harper (S) is on injured reserve for DET

The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

C.J. West (DT) is on injured reserve for SF

The 49ers placed West (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.

Quintayvious Hutchins (LB) is on injured reserve for NE

Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 26.

David Onyemata (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ

Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.

Dell Pettus (S) is on injured reserve for NE

The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Fernando Carmona (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.

Anthony Bradford (G) is on injured reserve for SEA

The Seahawks placed Bradford (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 24.

Jackson Slater (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.

Greg Van Roten (G) is on injured reserve for NE

The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 30.

Gennings Dunker (G) is on injured reserve for PIT

The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports. Reported Sep 26.

IND (2-2) at PIT (2-2)

IND is 2-2, -2 points on the year, has won 2 straight this season. PIT is 2-2, -10 points on the year, has lost 1 straight this season. IND is 1-1 on the road; PIT is 2-0 at home.

CIN is on a short week

Cincinnati and Miami are both on 2 days of rest, so the turnaround is equal. Both sides get the same thin prep window, and the Bengals add travel on top. Rest is a wash here, so weigh the matchup ahead of the calendar.

DEN and LAC are even since 2025

This series split last season with the home team winning each time: the Chargers 23-20 on Sep 21 and Denver 19-3 on Jan 4. The first was a three-point game, the second was a mismatch where the Chargers managed a field goal. This one is in Los Angeles, where the last meeting came down to three points. Two games is a thin sample, so let home field carry more weight than either score.

WSH lead the series with NYG since 2025

Washington won both meetings last season, 21-6 at home on Sep 7 and 29-21 at the Giants on Dec 14. The first was one-way, the second was a one-score game into the fourth quarter range. The Giants scored 6 in Washington, and this game is back there. A two-game sweep is a short sample, but both results point the same direction.

HOU lead the series with TEN since 2025

Houston swept Tennessee last season, and the two games looked very different. The first was a 26-0 shutout in Houston on Sep 28, while the rematch in Tennessee was a 16-13 grind on Nov 16. This one is in Tennessee again, where the Titans kept it to a field goal. Weigh the road result more than the shutout, since that is the same setting as this game.

TB is on a short week

Tampa Bay and Dallas both come in 2 days removed from their last game, so neither side gets a rest edge. Both staffs are working with the same compressed week of recovery and walkthroughs. With rest even, the schedule shouldn't tip this one; look at the matchup itself.

PHI is on a short week

Philadelphia and Jacksonville are each on 2 days of rest, so the calendar treats them the same. Both get a compressed week built around recovery more than new installs, and the Eagles also have to travel. Rest won't separate these teams, so put your weight on the matchup.

HOU is on a short week

Houston and Tennessee both come in 2 days after their last game, so neither has a rest advantage. Expect two teams working off simplified plans after a week spent mostly on recovery. With the schedule even, the matchup should decide how you view this game.

LV is on a short week

Las Vegas and New England each come in 2 days removed from their last game, so neither side is fresher. The Raiders also make the trip east on that short window. With rest even, focus on the matchup rather than the schedule.

SF is on a short week

SF comes in on a short week (2 days since its last game); SEA on a short week (2 days since its last game).

BUF is on a short week

Buffalo and the Rams each come in 2 days after their last game, so rest is even. The Bills have the long cross-country trip to make on that short window. Rest itself won't split these teams, so weigh the travel and the matchup.

NYG is on a short week

The Giants and Washington are both on 2 days of rest, so the calendar gives neither an edge. A short division trip keeps travel light for New York. Rest won't decide this one, so lean on what you know about the matchup.

CHI is on a short week

Chicago and Green Bay both come in 2 days after their last game, so rest is even. Both staffs face the same squeezed week of recovery and walkthroughs before a division game. The schedule doesn't separate them, so the matchup should drive your view.

DEN is on a short week

Denver and the Chargers are each on 2 days of rest, so neither side has a calendar edge. Both get the same compressed prep window, with the Broncos also traveling. Rest is a wash, so weigh the matchup instead.

DET is on a short week

Detroit and Arizona both come in 2 days removed from their last game, so the turnaround is equal. The Lions carry the travel on that thin window. With rest even, the matchup matters more than the schedule here.

CLE (3-1) at NYJ (1-3)

Cleveland is 3-1 and has won 3 straight, yet sits at -14, which means the wins were close and the loss was bad. The Jets are 1-3 at -8 and lost their only home game, so their record undersells a team that has been near the Browns by margin. This is the clearest case on the board of a record flattering one side, and a bettor should be wary of paying for Cleveland's 3-1.

Joey Porter Jr.

Full practice

Malik Hooker

Full practice

James Houston

Full practice

Alijah Clark

Full practice

Rueben Bain Jr.

Full practice

Tyler Goodson

Full practice

CeeDee Lamb

Full practice

Josiah Trotter

Full practice

Cody Ponce

Cody Ponce is on Toronto’s 60-day IL with a knee injury, with October 15 listed as his return date—nine days away, without a guaranteed activation. His 3.86 ERA makes him the stash I’d consider here, provided my league still has games to count if he returns. Conditional IL stash; pass if your fantasy season ends before he can contribute.

PIT lead the series with IND since 2025

Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 27-20 at home on Nov 2, the only recent meeting. It was a one-score game in the same stadium as this one. One result is a thin sample, so expect the margin to say more than the win.

CIN lead the series with MIA since 2025

There is one meeting to go on: Cincinnati won 45-21 in Miami on Dec 21. That was a blowout, and this game is in the same building. One game is a small sample, so treat the margin as a single result more than a pattern.

LV lead the series with NE since 2025

The only recent meeting was Week 1 last season, a 20-13 Las Vegas win in New England on Sep 7. It was a one-score game in the same building as this one. One opening-week result tells you little about either team now.

NYJ lead the series with CLE since 2025

The Jets beat Cleveland 27-20 at home on Nov 9, the only meeting in the stretch. That was a one-score game, and this one is back with the Jets. With one game to go on, the margin says these teams were close more than it says either side has an edge.