starter_team_recordNYM @ PHI
Phillies 0-5 in Alan Rangel's last 5 starts
Phillies are 0-5 in Alan Rangel's last 5 starts this season — losers of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeCHW @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Sean Burke (RHP)
Over 170 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .814 OPS versus .310 in 32 AB the other way. He sees RHP Sean Burke tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
starter_team_recordDET @ LAA
Angels 1-7 in Ryan Johnson's last 8 starts
Angels are 1-7 in Ryan Johnson's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordSF @ SEA
Giants 7-1 in Robbie Ray's last 8 starts
Giants are 7-1 in Robbie Ray's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordCHW @ TOR
White Sox 7-1 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts
White Sox are 7-1 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordTB @ BOS
Red Sox 7-1 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
Red Sox are 7-1 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordWSH @ OAK
Nationals 6-1 in Foster Griffin's last 7 starts
Nationals are 6-1 in Foster Griffin's last 7 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
streakARG @ ESP
Argentina are unbeaten in 13 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 3-2-0 (W-D-W-D-W), carrying a 13-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team lost 0-1
platoon_edgeCHW @ TOR
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Trey Yesavage (RHP)
Over 211 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .876 OPS versus .519 in 59 AB the other way. He sees RHP Trey Yesavage tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakingTEX @ ATL
TEX games have gone OVER 7 straight
The over has cashed 7 in a row in TEX games: 11.4 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 7.9. Tonight's number sits at 9.
P final total 13 vs 9
platoon_edgeCIN @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.957 OPS, 176 AB) sits well above his .574 mark the other way (41 AB). Tonight's starter Hunter Greene throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeWSH @ OAK
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Dylan Crews's vs. Left line (.931 OPS, 57 AB) sits well above his .465 mark the other way (126 AB). Tonight's starter Jacob Lopez throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkSD @ KC
Lane Thomas: 1.280 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.280 OPS spans the last 15 days (42 PA) against a .764 season baseline, a 0.516 swing. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeNYM @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (1.001 OPS, 214 AB) sits well above his .644 mark the other way (135 AB). Tonight's starter Nolan McLean throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordLAD @ NYY
Yankees 2-6 in Ryan Yarbrough's last 8 starts
Yankees are 2-6 in Ryan Yarbrough's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgePIT @ CLE
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 2nd against Paul Skenes (RHP)
Over 165 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .864 OPS versus .523 in 86 AB the other way. He sees RHP Paul Skenes tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordSTL @ ARI
Cardinals 6-2 in Andre Pallante's last 8 starts
Cardinals are 6-2 in Andre Pallante's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordLAD @ NYY
Dodgers 6-2 in Will Klein's last 8 starts
Dodgers are 6-2 in Will Klein's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordTEX @ ATL
Rangers 6-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 8 starts
Rangers are 6-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordPIT @ CLE
Pirates 2-6 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts
Pirates are 2-6 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordSF @ SEA
Mariners 6-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 8 starts
Mariners are 6-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeMIA @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.915 OPS, 260 AB) sits well above his .568 mark the other way (101 AB). Tonight's starter Eury Perez throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeTB @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu (bats L) draws Shane McClanahan (LHP), batting 3rd
Wilyer Abreu carries a 1.023 OPS vs. Left (112 AB) against .699 the other way (252 AB), and faces LHP Shane McClanahan from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
platoon_edgeSF @ SEA
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.914 OPS, 251 AB) sits well above his .542 mark the other way (124 AB). Tonight's starter Logan Gilbert throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
park_weatherLAD @ NYY
Wind blowing out 15 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
Conditions at Yankee Stadium: Sunny, 76°, wind 15 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.
P final total 3 vs 9 (over lean)
rest_fatigueMIA @ MIL
MIA's bullpen has covered 16.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Calvin Faucher (3.7) and Cade Gibson (3). MIL's pen has thrown 13 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-3
rest_fatigueTEX @ ATL
16.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 16.7 innings over the last 3 games (JR Ritchie (5.3) and Dylan Lee (2.3) the heaviest). TEX's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-8
heat_checkWSH @ OAK
James Wood: 1.453 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (34 PA) he is at a 1.453 OPS, up 0.484 on his .969 season mark. He has 28 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
cooling_offNYM @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .355 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nolan McLean
Brandon Marsh's .355 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .812 season mark, down 0.457. Tonight he draws RHP Nolan McLean — his stronger side: a .869 OPS vs RHP across 250 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchWSH @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 6.83 ERA vs 3.88 xERA
Jacob Lopez carries a 6.83 ERA against a 3.88 expected ERA (2.95 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .293 off him vs a .229 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
head_to_headCHW @ TOR
White Sox are 4-1 vs Blue Jays this season
White Sox lead the season series 4-1 over Blue Jays. TOR took the last meeting 1-0 — a revenge spot.
platoon_edgeTB @ BOS
Jonathan Aranda (bats L) hits 2nd against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Over 244 AB vs. Right, Jonathan Aranda owns a .929 OPS versus .658 in 104 AB the other way. He sees RHP Sonny Gray tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
head_to_headMIA @ MIL
Brewers are 4-1 vs Marlins this season
Brewers lead the season series 4-1 over Marlins. MIL won the last meeting 8-6.
cooling_offSTL @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .486 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
Corbin Carroll's .486 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .825 season mark, down 0.339. Tonight he draws RHP Andre Pallante — his weaker side: a .736 OPS vs RHP across 243 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchSTL @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.29 ERA vs 5.06 xERA
Eduardo Rodriguez carries a 2.29 ERA against a 5.06 expected ERA (2.77 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .223 off him vs a .267 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
heat_checkWSH @ OAK
Curtis Mead: 1.266 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.266 OPS spans the last 15 days (38 PA) against a .859 season baseline, a 0.407 swing. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offLAD @ NYY
Teoscar Hernandez: .233 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cam Schlittler
Teoscar Hernandez's .233 OPS over the last 15 days (28 PA) trails his .706 season mark, down 0.473. Tonight he draws RHP Cam Schlittler — his weaker side: a .697 OPS vs RHP across 169 AB.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
rest_fatiguePIT @ CLE
PIT's pen has logged 15 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 15 innings out of the pen — Khristian Curtis (5) and Carmen Mlodzinski (3) carried the load. CLE's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 7-1
park_weatherNYM @ PHI
Wind blowing in 14 mph at Citizens Bank Park tonight
Conditions at Citizens Bank Park: Partly Cloudy, 80°, wind 14 mph, In From LF. That wind knocks down anything hit in the air. The total sits at 11.75.
P final total 7 vs 11.75 (under lean)
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
Spain head the title market at -160
Spain are the market's outright World Cup favourite at -160. Argentina (+130) and Netherlands (+3500) are the next shortest.
cooling_offCHW @ TOR
Daulton Varsho: .314 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sean Burke
Daulton Varsho's .314 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .689 season mark, down 0.375. Tonight he draws RHP Sean Burke — his weaker side: a .673 OPS vs RHP across 217 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftLAD @ NYY
Ryan Yarbrough owns a 6.19 ERA at Yankee Stadium — 2.57 everywhere else
Across 10 games (16 IP) at Yankee Stadium, Ryan Yarbrough has a 6.19 ERA against 2.57 at his other parks (21 IP). Hitters bat .226 off him here.
P 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
cooling_offSTL @ ARI
Ivan Herrera: .384 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
Ivan Herrera's .384 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .752 season mark, down 0.368. Tonight he draws LHP Eduardo Rodriguez — his stronger side: a .822 OPS vs LHP across 102 AB.
P 3-for-6, 3 TB
streakingBAL @ HOU
BAL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in BAL games: 7.5 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 9.1. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 7 vs 8
running_gamePIT @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Henry Davis (52% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis owns a 52% caught-stealing rate (13 of 25) and Cleveland Guardians run anyway — 1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 0 bases
heat_checkMIA @ MIL
Joey Ortiz: .970 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 40 PA: a .970 OPS versus .618 for the season, 0.352 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
streakingSD @ KC
KC have won 4 straight
KC have taken 4 straight and own a +23 run differential over the run. Last 5: 4-1.
P team lost 19-2
streakingMIN @ CHC
MIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for MIN — their games are producing only 7 runs against numbers around 8.8. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
P final total 11 vs 7.5
streakingCIN @ COL
CIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for CIN — their games are producing only 6.3 runs against numbers around 10.9. Tonight's number sits at 11.
P final total 15 vs 11
streakingBAL @ HOU
BAL have won 4 straight
Baltimore Orioles have won 4 straight, outscoring teams by 14 runs over the run; 4-2 across their last 6.
P team won 5-2
regression_watchTB @ BOS
Jahmai Jones: .144 AVG vs .220 xBA
Across 107 plate appearances, Jahmai Jones carries a .144 average versus a .220 xBA. His wOBA sits at .221 against a .299 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkLAD @ NYY
Ben Rice: 1.330 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.330 OPS spans the last 15 days (37 PA) against a .974 season baseline, a 0.356 swing. He has 29 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
regression_watchPIT @ CLE
Esmerlyn Valdez: .304 AVG vs .225 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .304 average comes against a .225 expected (xBA) on 113 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .447 against a .355 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
park_weatherLAD @ NYY
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
Conditions at Yankee Stadium: Sunny, 77°, wind 13 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.75.
P final total 10 vs 7.75 (over lean)
heat_checkPIT @ CLE
Steven Kwan: 1.087 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 28 PA: a 1.087 OPS versus .639 for the season, 0.448 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
heat_checkTB @ BOS
Andruw Monasterio: 1.271 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.271 OPS spans the last 15 days (23 PA) against a .722 season baseline, a 0.549 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offLAD @ NYY
Paul Goldschmidt: .395 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Will Klein
Paul Goldschmidt's .395 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .801 season mark, down 0.406. Tonight he draws RHP Will Klein — his weaker side: a .600 OPS vs RHP across 142 AB.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
heat_checkCIN @ COL
Spencer Steer: 1.106 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (36 PA) he is at a 1.106 OPS, up 0.336 on his .770 season mark. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
platoon_edgeLAD @ NYY
Freddie Freeman (bats L) hits 3rd against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Over 247 AB vs. Right, Freddie Freeman owns a .921 OPS versus .704 in 112 AB the other way. He sees RHP Cam Schlittler tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
rest_fatigueBAL @ HOU
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Enyel De Los Santos (3) and Steven Okert (3) the heaviest). BAL's pen has thrown 14 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-2
heat_checkMIA @ MIL
Heriberto Hernandez: 1.176 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.176 OPS spans the last 15 days (32 PA) against a .781 season baseline, a 0.395 swing. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
cooling_offNYM @ PHI
Bryce Harper: .518 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nolan McLean
Bryce Harper's .518 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .863 season mark, down 0.345. Tonight he draws RHP Nolan McLean — his stronger side: a 1.001 OPS vs RHP across 214 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatigueSD @ KC
13.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 13.7 innings over the last 3 games (Adrian Morejon (4) and Matt Waldron (2.3) the heaviest). KC's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 19-2
rest_fatigueTB @ BOS
BOS's pen has logged 13.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.7 innings out of the pen — Alec Gamboa (3) and Jovani Moran (2) carried the load. TB's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-6
rest_fatigueSTL @ ARI
ARI's pen has logged 13.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.7 innings out of the pen — Kevin Ginkel (2.7) and Taylor Clarke (2.3) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 7-8
heat_checkTB @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu: 1.087 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a 1.087 OPS, up 0.287 on his .800 season mark. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_formTEX @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 0.64 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14 innings, 1 earned runs, 11 Ks. That 0.64 ERA sits 2.96 runs under his 3.61 season number.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
tournamentGROUP OF DEATH
Türkiye were handed a live group
Türkiye are a +13000 title pick, yet only -115 to advance in Group D — the market sees a genuine fight just to escape the group.
cooling_offDET @ LAA
Kerry Carpenter: .237 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Johnson
Kerry Carpenter's .237 OPS over the last 15 days (24 PA) trails his .734 season mark, down 0.497. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Johnson — his stronger side: a .767 OPS vs RHP across 188 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offCIN @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .483 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Greene
Mickey Moniak's .483 OPS over the last 15 days (30 PA) trails his .886 season mark, down 0.403. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Greene — his stronger side: a .957 OPS vs RHP across 176 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formPIT @ CLE
Paul Skenes: 6.46 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.46 ERA over his last 15.3 innings with a 1.37 WHIP (1.02 season) — the 3.57 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
cooling_offMIA @ MIL
Jackson Chourio: .613 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Eury Perez
Jackson Chourio's .613 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .821 season mark, down 0.208. Tonight he draws RHP Eury Perez — his weaker side: a .793 OPS vs RHP across 197 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
starter_formDET @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 3.86 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14 IP) he has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP (1.50 season) and 10 strikeouts — his season mark is 6.75, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
cooling_offPIT @ CLE
Kyle Manzardo: .280 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
Kyle Manzardo's .280 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .655 season mark, down 0.375. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his stronger side: a .657 OPS vs RHP across 219 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
rest_fatigueWSH @ OAK
WSH's bullpen has covered 13.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Miles Mikolas (4) and Andrew Alvarez (2). OAK's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-2
cooling_offBAL @ HOU
Gunnar Henderson: .410 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Brown
Gunnar Henderson's .410 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .682 season mark, down 0.272. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Brown — his stronger side: a .690 OPS vs RHP across 285 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at -100000 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
tournamentARG @ ESP
Spain vs Argentina: Final stakes
This is a final tie — win or go home. The market has it Spain +125 / the draw +200 / Argentina +260.
starter_formBAL @ HOU
Hunter Brown: 6.19 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 16 innings, 11 earned runs, 15 hits. That 6.19 ERA runs 2.62 over his 3.57 season number.
P 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
regression_tomorrowTB @ TOR
Nick Martinez: 2.65 ERA vs 4.7 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TOR. A 2.65 ERA against a 4.7 expected ERA (2.05 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .247 vs .281 expected.
starter_formNYM @ PHI
Nolan McLean: 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 2 earned runs over his last 18 innings (1.00 ERA) with a 1.11 WHIP (1.12 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.52 season line says.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
ownedSF @ SEA
Robbie Ray vs Randy Arozarena: 3-for-26, 9 K
Robbie Ray has limited Randy Arozarena to 3-for-26 (.115) with 9 strikeouts in 26 career at-bats. They face off again tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchDET @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 6.75 ERA vs 4.96 xERA
Ryan Johnson carries a 6.75 ERA against a 4.96 expected ERA (1.79 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .280 off him vs a .264 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
ballpark_shiftLAD @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.59 ERA
Cam Schlittler at Yankee Stadium: 3.59 ERA over 42.7 innings (8G) — 1.18 on a 76-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .259 off him here.
P 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
platoon_edgeTB @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Ceddanne Rafaela's vs. Left line (.860 OPS, 98 AB) sits well above his .719 mark the other way (257 AB). Tonight's starter Shane McClanahan throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
starter_formMIA @ MIL
Eury Perez: 1.47 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (18.3 IP) he has a 1.47 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP (1.14 season) and 22 strikeouts — his season mark is 3.78, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
platoon_edgeLAD @ NYY
Mookie Betts (bats R) hits 4th against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Over 169 AB vs. Right, Mookie Betts owns a .757 OPS versus .579 in 72 AB the other way. He sees RHP Cam Schlittler tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
bullpen_fatigueTB @ BOS
Boston Red Sox pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston Red Sox's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
heat_checkCHW @ TOR
Tristan Peters: 1.111 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.111 OPS spans the last 15 days (29 PA) against a .816 season baseline, a 0.295 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
cooling_offLAD @ NYY
Freddie Freeman: .593 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cam Schlittler
Freddie Freeman's .593 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .853 season mark, down 0.26. Tonight he draws RHP Cam Schlittler — his stronger side: a .921 OPS vs RHP across 247 AB.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowWSH @ COL
Kyle Freeland: 7.36 ERA vs 5.55 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 7.36 ERA against a 5.55 expected ERA (1.81 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .319 vs .295 expected.
regression_watchPIT @ CLE
Jake Mangum: .301 AVG vs .255 xBA
Across 263 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .301 average versus a .255 xBA. His wOBA sits at .325 against a .286 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
regression_watchCIN @ COL
TJ Rumfield: .302 AVG vs .255 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .302 average comes against a .255 expected (xBA) on 393 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .380 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchCIN @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .276 AVG vs .230 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .276 average comes against a .230 expected (xBA) on 235 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .375 against a .311 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchMIA @ MIL
Robert Gasser: 5.25 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Robert Gasser carries a 5.25 ERA against a 3.82 expected ERA (1.43 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .250 off him vs a .230 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
xg_regressionARG @ ESP
Argentina are finishing above their chances
Argentina are scoring 2.7/match on 2.1 xG — 0.6 goals/match above expected across 7 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
tournamentSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
park_weatherPIT @ CLE
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Progressive Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Progressive Field — Sunny, 77°, wind 10 mph, In From CF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 7.
P final total 8 vs 7 (under lean)
xg_recapARG @ ESP
Spain created the better chances
Spain led the xG 1.9–0.2 and took the result to match (1–0).
regression_tomorrowSTL @ LAA
Kyle Leahy: 3.73 ERA vs 5.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAA. A 3.73 ERA against a 5.34 expected ERA (1.61 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .269 vs .275 expected.
fantasy_pickupsDET @ LAA
Casey Mize
Streamer vs LAA — 3.07 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1 WHIP.
ballparkARG @ ESP
Spain vs Argentina: afternoon heat at MetLife Stadium
An open-air 3pm local kickoff at MetLife Stadium — open-air in an exposed Meadowlands bowl. Conditioning is tested when matches are played in the afternoon sun.
regression_watchLAD @ NYY
Mookie Betts: .232 AVG vs .274 xBA
Across 263 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .232 average versus a .274 xBA. His wOBA sits at .306 against a .332 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
xg_recapARG @ ENG
Argentina created the better chances
Argentina led the xG 1.8–0.5 and took the result to match (1–2).
regression_tomorrowOAK @ ARI
Jeffrey Springs: 6.08 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 6.08 ERA against a 4.58 expected ERA (1.5 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .264 vs .245 expected.
starter_formSTL @ ARI
Andre Pallante: 5.71 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 5.71 ERA over his last 17.3 innings with a 1.62 WHIP (1.26 season) — the 3.96 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
regression_watchSF @ SEA
Robbie Ray: 3.38 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Robbie Ray carries a 3.38 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (1.24 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .217 off him vs a .237 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
running_gameNYM @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies like to run — Luis Torrens (42% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Philadelphia Phillies attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 14 of 33 runners (42%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 0 bases
regression_watchCHW @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .295 AVG vs .258 xBA
Across 383 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .295 average versus a .258 xBA. His wOBA sits at .325 against a .275 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsLAD @ NYY
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Streamer vs NYY — 3.21 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 0.91 WHIP.
regression_watchTB @ BOS
Shane McClanahan: 2.83 ERA vs 3.99 xERA
Shane McClanahan carries a 2.83 ERA against a 3.99 expected ERA (1.16 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .214 off him vs a .242 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
first_inningMIA @ MIL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ MIL
MIL games have seen a first-inning run in just 3 of their last 10; MIA games in 2 of 10. That is 15 clean opening frames between them.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
starter_formSF @ SEA
Robbie Ray: 1.89 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (19 IP) he has a 1.89 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP (1.27 season) and 10 strikeouts — his season mark is 3.38, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
fantasy_pickupsCIN @ COL
JJ Bleday
Pickup vs Ryan Feltner (5.13 xERA) — .840 OPS, bats 3rd.
running_gameTB @ BOS
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Connor Wong has caught just 12%
Connor Wong is catching tonight at 12% on the season (3-for-26 throwing), and Tampa Bay Rays attempt 1.3 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 1 base
cooling_offCHW @ TOR
Andres Gimenez: .391 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sean Burke
Andres Gimenez's .391 OPS over the last 15 days (23 PA) trails his .640 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws RHP Sean Burke — his stronger side: a .672 OPS vs RHP across 218 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
heat_checkLAD @ NYY
Jasson Dominguez: .825 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .825 OPS spans the last 15 days (38 PA) against a .684 season baseline, a 0.141 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftDET @ LAA
Ryan Johnson's ERA drops to 6.00 at Angel Stadium
Ryan Johnson carries a 6.00 ERA over 5 games (15 IP) at Angel Stadium vs 7.36 across 18.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .250 off him here.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
fantasy_pickupsSD @ KC
Ty France
Pickup vs Noah Cameron (4.96 xERA) — .849 OPS, bats 4th.
fantasy_pickupsSTL @ ARI
Nelson Velazquez
Pickup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (5.1 xERA) — .832 OPS, bats 4th.
park_weatherCIN @ COL
93° at Coors Field — the ball will carry tonight
Tonight's reading at Coors Field — Sunny, 93°, wind 5 mph, In From RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 11.
P final total 15 vs 11 (over lean)
running_gameMIA @ MIL
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Liam Hicks has caught just 13%
Liam Hicks is catching tonight at 13% on the season (5-for-39 throwing), and Milwaukee Brewers attempt 1.3 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 1 base
fantasy_pickupsCIN @ COL
Sal Stewart
Pickup vs Ryan Feltner (5.13 xERA) — .806 OPS, bats 2nd.
regression_tomorrowSF @ KC
Trevor McDonald: 5.02 ERA vs 3.9 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 5.02 ERA against a 3.9 expected ERA (1.12 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .254 vs .246 expected.
ballpark_shiftCIN @ COL
Ryan Feltner owns a 4.14 ERA at Coors Field — 5.32 everywhere else
Across 8 games (41.3 IP) at Coors Field, Ryan Feltner has a 4.14 ERA against 5.32 at his other parks (22 IP). Hitters bat .216 off him here.
P 2.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
fantasy_pickupsSF @ SEA
Logan Gilbert
Streamer vs SF — 3.79 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 0.99 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsCIN @ COL
Nathaniel Lowe
Pickup vs Ryan Feltner (5.13 xERA) — .801 OPS, bats 5th.
fantasy_pickupsCHW @ TOR
Trey Yesavage
Streamer vs CHW — 3.33 xERA · 8.3 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
regression_tomorrowLAD @ PHI
Emmet Sheehan: 4.81 ERA vs 3.9 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PHI. A 4.81 ERA against a 3.9 expected ERA (0.91 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .241 vs .230 expected.
first_inningSF @ SEA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
running_gamePIT @ CLE
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Patrick Bailey (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Patrick Bailey owns a 34% caught-stealing rate (17 of 50) and Pittsburgh Pirates run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowNYM @ MIL
Freddy Peralta: 4.66 ERA vs 3.79 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 4.66 ERA against a 3.79 expected ERA (0.87 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .257 vs .233 expected.
regression_tomorrowSTL @ LAA
José Soriano: 3.49 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 3.49 ERA against a 4.33 expected ERA (0.84 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .222 vs .242 expected.
running_gameMIN @ CHC
Green light: Chicago Cubs run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 16%
Chicago Cubs steal 0.7 bags a game (70 on the season) and Ryan Jeffers has thrown out 5 of 32 runners (16%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Chicago Cubs stole 0 bases
first_inningBAL @ HOU
BAL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Baltimore Orioles have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningLAD @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York Yankees have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningLAD @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York Yankees have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
situationalArgentina @ Spain
Spain v Argentina: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.