Dodgers at Yankees
O/U 11.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
Dodgers ML-130
CONF 82%
WCashedFinal 8-2
The read
Under a bright Sunday afternoon sky at Yankee Stadium, the Dodgers and Yankees kick off a split doubleheader in what should have been a classic, but the starting pitching disparity tilts this opening matchup heavily toward the visitors. The Dodgers send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, and his season metrics are nothing short of spectacular, boasting a 2.85 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and 106 strikeouts over 110.2 innings. Yamamoto's splitter features a devastating 43.6% chase rate and has held left-handed hitters to a .198 average and right-handed hitters to a .187 average. Contrast that with the Yankees handing the ball to Ryan Weathers, who carries a mediocre 4.15 ERA and a 3-7 record, and the Dodgers have a clear, undeniable edge on the rubber from the very first pitch.
The offensive environment at Yankee Stadium today is highly explosive, with a 13-mph wind blowing directly out to the short 314-foot right-field porch, and that spells trouble for a left-handed pitcher like Weathers. The Dodgers’ offense is already in elite form, registering a 0.369 xwOBA and a 9.9% Barrel Rate over their last three games, and they possess lethal platoon weapons to deploy against a southpaw. Tommy Edman is batting .364 with a 1.052 OPS against left-handers, while Max Muncy—fresh off hitting the game-winning home run in the series opener on July 17—carries a robust .275 average and a .910 OPS against lefties. The wind profile and short porch create a perfect storm for the Dodgers' heavy hitters to challenge Weathers, whereas the Yankees' offense remains severely compromised with their primary power sources sidelined.
Beyond the pitching and hitting matchups, the Dodgers hold a substantial edge in overall team execution. Los Angeles is a phenomenal road team, sporting a league-best 31-17 record away from home, while the Yankees have been mediocre at Yankee Stadium with a 23-21 home record. Defensively, the Dodgers are incredibly tidy, committing just 36 errors this season (.990 FPCT) to provide steady support for Yamamoto’s groundball-leaning profile (1.19 GO/AO). The Yankees, conversely, have committed 56 errors (.984 FPCT), giving a disciplined Dodgers team plenty of opportunities to create extra baserunners. Even with Will Smith sidelined, backup catcher Dalton Rushing brings an elite 26.5% caught-stealing rate to shut down any Yankee running game. At -130 on the moneyline, backing the superior starter, the stronger lineup, and the far cleaner defense on the road is the sharpest bet on the board.
Injuries noted
Yankees: [NEW] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Fried (elbow) will make at least two rehab starts before a decision will be made on his activation from the 15-day injured list, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports. (Jul 17 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Thursday that Stanton (calf) has resumed running after receiving a PRP injection, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 9 — 9d ago) [NEW] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that a specialist determined that Judge (ribs) is not yet ready to resume baseball activities, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. (Jul 18 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodon (SP) — Elbow (Left): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday that Rodon (elbow) has had "a few good days of throwing" and could resume throwing off a mound at some point during the upcoming week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 12 — 6d ago) Dodgers: [NEW] Enrique Hernandez (1B) — Oblique (Left): Hernandez (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Friday, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports. (Jul 17 — 1d ago) [NEW] Tyler Glasnow (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Glasnow (back) threw a bullpen session this past weekend, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (Jul 16 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Gavin Stone (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports. (Jun 3 — 45d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Casparius (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday. (May 18 — 61d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Treinen (RP) — Elbow (Right): The Dodgers announced Thursday that Treinen (elbow) has resumed playing catch, per MLB.com. (Jul 5 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Snell (SP) — Elbow (Left): Snell (elbow) is expected to kick off a minor-league rehab assignment next Saturday, June 18, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 7d ago) [NEW] Will Smith (C) — Neck (Not Specified): Manager Dave Roberts said Friday that Smith's neck continued to bother him as he attempted to ramp up his activity, so the Dodgers will fully shut him down for a week, Jack Harris of the California Post reports. (Jul 17 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Edwin Diaz (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Diaz (elbow) allowed one hit in a scoreless inning for Single-A Ontario on Saturday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports. (Jul 11 — 7d ago)
Props on this game
1Ben RiceOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+123
WActual 2
Ben Rice is the spark plug of the Yankees offense right now, entering today with a .417 average and five home runs over his last 10 games. His power profile is perfectly suited for this specific environment; 21 of his 29 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and he boasts a 1.036 OPS in that split.
Yankee Stadium's dimensions are already forgiving for left-handed pull hitters, but the 13 mph wind blowing out to the right-field short porch today significantly elevates the floor for extra-base hits. Rice has cleared this total bases line in six of his last 10 outings, including three games with 5+ total bases.
Even against a top-tier arm, the combination of his current form and the favorable wind conditions makes this a high-value over.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store