Daily archive

2026-07-18

The stored Gary board for Sat, Jul 18. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB1:10 PM

Pirates @ Guardians

Progressive Field plays host to a hot-stove afternoon clash as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Guardians square off in the opening leg of today’s split doubleheader. Under a hazy, partly cloudy sky with temperatures pushing a sweltering eighty-nine degrees, this matchup offers a fascinating study in starting pitcher variance that the betting market has mispriced. My money is on the Pirates at a plus-money price because the starting pitching matchup heavily favors Pittsburgh when you look under the hood. Cleveland’s Gavin Williams carries a respectable 3.81 ERA, but his underlying 4.39 expected ERA indicates he has been playing with fire and benefiting from fortunate defense. Conversely, Pittsburgh's Jared Jones is a prime candidate for positive regression. Jones holds a 4.37 ERA that completely masks his elite 3.58 expected ERA, backed by a high-octane 98.6 mph fastball and a slider that carries a 37.1% whiff rate. While the market is sweating Jones' platoon splits against Cleveland's lefty-heavy lineup, Williams faces a similarly tough task against a Pirates offense that has been far more productive than Cleveland's all season. The offensive gap here is too wide to ignore, especially at these prices. Pittsburgh is averaging a robust 5.3 runs per game with a .263 team batting average and .768 OPS, whereas Cleveland is managing only 4.0 runs per game on a meager .229 AVG and .679 OPS. In an environment with a 14 mph wind blowing straight out to right field, Pittsburgh’s superior overall power profile is much better positioned to capitalize on mistakes. Expect Jones' elite stuff to keep Cleveland's quiet bats in check while the Pirates' potent offense exploits Williams' regression-prone profile to secure a road victory.

Pirates ML+110

CONF

72%

MLB2:20 PM

Twins @ Cubs

Wrigley Field is bathed in afternoon sunshine today as the Twins visit the Cubs for a high-stakes cross-league battle under the wind-blown flags of Chicago. With the temperature climbing to 86 degrees and a 13 mph crosswind blowing from left to right, this game is set up to be a tactical chess match where starting pitching and early runs will dictate the pace. The books are offering the Twins at +122, and that is a price I will gladly take because of the starting pitching mismatch on the mound. Taj Bradley has been exceptional this season with a 9-3 record, 3.59 ERA, and 118 strikeouts in 102.2 innings. More importantly, he is an absolute weapon in the afternoon, carrying a dominant 2.96 Day ERA. On the other side, Matthew Boyd is a massive regression candidate. His 4.50 ERA is heavily masked by a 4.90 xERA, indicating he has been incredibly lucky. Boyd has also struggled in day games, posting a bloated 5.40 Day ERA, and he has a glaring weakness against right-handed hitters, allowing a .790 OPS. Minnesota's coaching staff has aligned their lineup perfectly to exploit Boyd’s platoon splits, stacking seven right-handed or switch-hitters today, including Ryan Jeffers and Austin Martin. While the public will overreact to the fresh scratch of Royce Lewis due to hamstring tightness, this offense is still firing on all cylinders. Over their last three games, the Twins have averaged a stellar .370 xwOBA and a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Their high bat speed of 71.7 mph matches up perfectly against Boyd's vulnerable 92.7 mph four-seam fastball. The Cubs' offense is currently in a power slump, managing a weak .297 xwOBA and an anemic 1.8% barrel rate over their last two games. They will find it incredibly difficult to generate hard contact against Bradley's 96.9 mph fastball and his nasty cutter. While the Cubs possess a slightly better bullpen and defensive metrics, Bradley's ability to dominate the top of Chicago’s lineup and pitch deep into the afternoon will carry the day. Getting the superior starting pitcher and the hotter team—with the Twins riding a 7-3 run in their last 10 games—at plus-money is a classic sharp bet.

Twins ML+122

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72%

MLB3:07 PM

White Sox @ Blue Jays

It is a beautiful Saturday afternoon at the Rogers Centre as the red-hot Chicago White Sox look to keep their division lead intact against a struggling Toronto Blue Jays squad. Sitting in a dead heat with Cleveland at the top of the American League Central, the White Sox come into this matchup with maximum urgency and serious momentum, riding a four-game winning streak that includes yesterday’s 12-4 blowout in the series opener. This is a spot where the starting pitching mismatch simply cannot be ignored, even at a pick'em price of -108. Davis Martin has been a steady and reliable presence for Chicago with a 9-4 record, a 3.41 ERA, and a 1.29 WHIP over 18 starts. On the other hand, Shane Bieber has looked incredibly vulnerable since returning from the injured list, posting a 7.64 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in his four starts. Bieber's contact quality metrics are highly concerning, surrendering a 14.3% barrel rate and a 55.6% hard-hit rate, while his staggering 11.53 expected ERA suggests his struggles are very real and highly sustainable. The White Sox's left-handed hitters are uniquely positioned to exploit Bieber's primary pitch mix, particularly his 4-seam fastball, which he uses 37% of the time and has surrendered a highly vulnerable .456 expected weighted on-base average. While core hitters like Sam Antonacci and Munetaka Murakami have historically seen a drop-off in afternoon games—with Antonacci carrying a .664 Day OPS and Murakami a .639 Day OPS—their underlying talent and matchups against Bieber remain highly favorable. Andrew Benintendi, serving as the designated hitter, has historically dominated Bieber throughout his career, posting an elite .524 batting average and a 1.403 OPS over 21 career at-bats. This veteran presence in the middle of the order gives the Chicago offense a highly reliable focal point to jump on Bieber early and knock him out of the game. Defensively, the White Sox also provide a far sturdier safety net for their starting pitcher than Toronto does. Chicago has committed just 48 errors with a .986 fielding percentage this season, while the Blue Jays have booted 62 balls for a .982 fielding percentage. Behind the plate, rookie catcher Kyle Teel has been exceptional, throwing out runners at a 45.5% caught-stealing rate, whereas Toronto's Alejandro Kirk has managed just a 17.6% rate, which should allow Chicago's aggressive baserunners to run wild. Once the starting pitchers exit, the White Sox possess a deep and dependable bullpen to preserve the lead, anchored by Bryan Hudson with his stellar 2.20 ERA and a rested closer in Grant Taylor who boasts a 2.79 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. With first place on the line, take the hotter, more complete, and highly motivated team on the moneyline.

White Sox ML-108

CONF

72%

MLB3:10 PM

Reds @ Rockies

Under the blinding afternoon sun at Coors Field, the Cincinnati Reds and the Colorado Rockies face off in a high-altitude clash where the thin, 89-degree air is poised to push both pitching staffs to their limits. This is an environment where park factors dictate the terms of engagement, and today's starting pitching matchup highlights a massive discrepancy in underlying quality that the betting market has failed to fully price. While Rhett Lowder has faced his own road challenges this season, carrying a 6.75 Away ERA, he represents a far more stable option than Colorado's Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano is scheduled to make his return from the 15-day injured list with back spasms, and his season numbers are a statistical minefield. Despite a superficial 4.80 ERA, Sugano's expected ERA sits at a staggering 7.07—a massive -2.27 gap—backed by a highly vulnerable .397 opponent xwOBA. He allows a 14% barrel rate and a 44.6% hard-hit rate, and his fly-ball tendency (0.73 GO/AO) is a dangerous fit for a hot day in Denver, especially with a 6.15 Day ERA. This matches up poorly against Reds hitters like Elly De La Cruz, who has posted a .420 xwOBA against four-seamers, and Sal Stewart, who bats .326 against them, ready to punish Sugano's primary fastball and its .473 xwOBA. Furthermore, the Reds have displayed complete comfort playing in this venue, carrying a seven-game winning streak at Coors Field including a decisive 7-2 win in yesterday's series opener. Unlike many teams that suffer from the Denver travel hangover, Cincinnati’s 22-24 road record is actually superior to their 22-28 home record, and their pitching staff offers a much sturdier safety net with a 4.49 team ERA and a 1.43 WHIP compared to Colorado’s 5.45 team ERA and 1.52 WHIP. At a modest price of -120 on the moneyline, we are backing the team with the superior bullpen, the healthier starting pitcher, and a clear history of success in this park.

Reds ML-120

CONF

78%

MLB3:05 PM

Mets @ Phillies

A classic National League East rivalry takes center stage under overcast skies in Philadelphia as the Phillies look to assert their divisional dominance against the visiting Mets. My money tonight is riding on the Phillies moneyline. Even with Jesús Luzardo making his first appearance of the season, the baseline statistical gap between these two starting pitchers is too wide to ignore. Luzardo owns a stellar 3.51 ERA backed by an even better 2.96 xERA, registering a commanding 11.1 K/9 and keeping hitters off-balance with a tiny 5.3% barrel rate. New York counters with Sean Manaea, who has labored to a 2-4 record with a 4.56 ERA (4.22 xERA) and a far more vulnerable 8.1% barrel rate. The underlying metrics strongly favor Luzardo, and having a fundamentally sound defense behind him—where Philadelphia has committed only 48 errors and a .986 fielding percentage compared to the Mets' sloppy 66 errors and .981 fielding percentage—solidifies the home team's defensive edge for Luzardo’s ground-ball-inducing style (1.50 GO/AO). The offensive matchups lean heavily toward the home team, particularly when we look at how the Phillies' left-handed power matches up against Manaea's repertoire. Manaea relies on a 90.6 mph four-seam fastball 35% of the time, a pitch that Kyle Schwarber (.442 xwOBA vs. fastballs) and Bryce Harper (.462 xwOBA vs. fastballs) absolutely feast on. To make matters worse for the Mets, Harper is a career .368 hitter in 19 at-bats against Manaea. Citizens Bank Park features a 1.06 hitter factor, and with the wind blowing 8 mph out to right field, Schwarber (1.037 home OPS) and Harper (.928 home OPS) are in a prime position to damage Manaea's soft-tossing approach. While the Mets get Juan Soto back in the lineup, they still average fewer runs (4.1 R/G) and possess a lower team OPS (.685) than Philadelphia's marks of 4.3 R/G and .699 OPS. When the starting pitchers yield to the bullpens, the Phillies hold a massive advantage in high-leverage situations. Philadelphia features Jhoan Duran, who has locked down 24 saves with a microscopic 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Mets' late-inning situation remains highly volatile, anchored by Devin Williams who has posted a bloated 4.68 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Even with Brad Keller sidelined, the rest of the Phillies' high-leverage arms are fully rested after Friday's off-day. At -168, the price on the Phillies moneyline reflects a division contender playing at home with a superior starting pitcher, cleaner defense, and a highly reliable back-end bullpen. I'll take the Phillies to take care of business at Citizens Bank Park.

Phillies ML-168

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72%

MLB4:10 PM

Rays @ Red Sox

The stage is set at Fenway Park on a warm afternoon where a 20-mph wind is blowing straight out to left field, turning this AL East clash into a potential launching pad. With the wind howling and both Ian Seymour and Patrick Sandoval sporting extreme fly-ball profiles, this game will be decided by who can keep the ball in the yard and lock down the late innings. The public is chasing Boston's 11-game winning streak, but the smart money is looking at a massive starting pitching and bullpen divergence. Patrick Sandoval's 2.08 ERA is a tiny-sample mirage over just 4.1 innings that hides a dangerous 3.56 xERA and a highly vulnerable 46.2% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Ian Seymour’s 4.59 ERA is backed by a superb 3.48 xERA and an elite changeup with a 38.9% whiff rate, showing he has pitched much better than his traditional numbers suggest. The matchups get even more pronounced when analyzing how Tampa's right-handed bats line up against Sandoval's pitch mix. Junior Caminero crushes left-handers to the tune of a 1.048 OPS, while Yandy Diaz brings a career .565 xwOBA against Sandoval’s primary weapon, the slider. While the Red Sox have potent bats like Wilyer Abreu (.948 OPS vs. LHP), Seymour is highly capable of limiting damage with his 10.4 K/9. Most importantly, Boston’s bullpen is gassed after utilizing seven relievers to secure yesterday’s doubleheader sweep, leaving closer Aroldis Chapman heavily taxed. Tampa Bay’s high-leverage relief corps is completely rested, giving the visitors a massive, late-inning advantage. This is a textbook spot to fade public hype during a long season. The Red Sox are at the peak of their valuation on this winning streak, but the first-place Rays (56-40) are the superior team and are priced at a near-even -106 due to a brief three-game slide. Boston's elite defense cannot bail out a fatigued pitching staff in a hitter's park with the wind blowing out. I am taking the Rays to exploit Sandoval's regression-heavy profile early and let their rested bullpen lock down a victory.

Rays ML-106

CONF

78%

MLB4:10 PM

Rangers @ Braves

Welcome to a sweltering July afternoon at Truist Park, where the first-place Texas Rangers battle the division-leading Atlanta Braves in a high-stakes clash under the Georgia sun. With temperatures pushing a thick 89°F and an eight-mile-per-hour wind blowing directly out to left field, we are looking at a powder keg of a game environment that uniquely penalizes fly-ball pitchers. This sets up an incredibly dangerous major league debut for Atlanta's young right-hander Owen Murphy, who relies on his four-seam fastball 59.7% of the time at 94.1 mph. The heart of this Texas lineup is absolutely lethal against heaters, with Joc Pederson (.455 xwOBA), Wyatt Langford (.370 xwOBA), Josh Jung (.368 xwOBA), and Brandon Nimmo (.340 xwOBA) all ranking as elite fastball hitters. Murphy's extreme fly-ball profile (0.33 GO/AO) and high contact rates allowed—including a 77.8% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate in his brief career action—mean any mistakes over the plate are going to fly out of this park in a hurry today. Now, MacKenzie Gore has certainly had his road struggles for the Rangers, carrying a 5.81 ERA away from home compared to a 3.44 ERA in his home starts. He also has to navigate a tough reverse-platoon split where lefties hit him for a .281 average and a .783 OPS, giving Matt Olson (.276 AVG, .846 OPS vs LHP) and Michael Harris II (.276 AVG, .754 OPS vs LHP) plenty of opportunities. However, Gore’s underlying metrics are much more stable than his surface numbers suggest; his 3.88 xERA compared to his 4.63 ERA indicates he has been on the wrong side of luck, and his 8.6% barrel rate and 44.8% hard-hit rate allowed are far more manageable than what a debuting rookie is about to face. Behind the starters, both bullpens are completely rested and locked in after yesterday's lopsided opener. While Atlanta has Raisel Iglesias (2.23 ERA, 19 saves) ready, they are missing setup man Robert Suarez due to a new elbow injury, which leaves a hole in their late-inning bridge. Texas counter-punches with a highly efficient bullpen of their own, led by Jacob Latz (1.61 ERA, 18 saves), Tyler Alexander (2.21 ERA), and Jakob Junis (2.80 ERA) who have all been preserved. In a game that will come down to which lineup punishes mistake pitches in the summer heat, I am putting my money on the experienced starter and the veteran hitters who eat fastballs for breakfast. Give me the Rangers to take this one on the moneyline at a highly attractive near-even price of -104.

Rangers ML-104

CONF

68%

MLB4:10 PM

Orioles @ Astros

Daikin Park sets the stage this afternoon as the surging Orioles look to keep their hot streak alive against an Astros squad fighting to defend their home turf. On the mound, we are looking at two starting pitchers with identical 4.50-range ERAs, but their paths to those numbers couldn’t be more different. Baltimore’s Trevor Rogers has been on an absolute tear, posting a dominant 0.74 ERA over his last four starts, and his underlying 4.27 expected ERA suggests his season-long performance is both sustainable and improving. In contrast, Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti is a walking regression candidate, sporting a massive 5.20 expected ERA that points to serious trouble under the hood. Arrighetti has already shown a low floor with two eight-run blowouts in his last five outings, and his highly vulnerable four-seam fastball, which allows a .420 xwOBA, is a major liability. The Orioles’ lineup is perfectly structured to exploit Arrighetti’s primary weakness. The Houston righty has struggled mightily against left-handed hitting, allowing a hefty .798 OPS to lefties compared to a stingy .593 against right-handed batters. Baltimore rolls out a lineup featuring six left-handed hitters plus switch-hitting Adley Rutschman, maximizing this platoon advantage. This sets up beautifully for Gunnar Henderson, who has historically hammered Arrighetti to the tune of a .500 average and a home run in six career at-bats, as well as Pete Alonso, who has a career .431 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs. Houston’s defensive structure also faces a fresh disruption in center field, where rookie Lucas Spence has to fill in after Brice Matthews was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday with a knee injury. Momentum is heavily on the side of the visitors, with Baltimore riding a five-game winning streak while Houston has dropped its last two and is just 4-6 in its last ten games. While Houston possesses a rest advantage in their back-end bullpen with Josh Hader, they have to get to him with a lead first. With Arrighetti’s high volatility and his distinct platoon struggles against a left-handed-heavy Orioles core, Baltimore is in a fantastic position to jump on the Astros’ starter early and build a lead that Rogers and the Orioles can protect. At a flat pick'em price, backing the hotter team with the pitcher in far superior form is the sharp play today.

Orioles ML-108

CONF

78%

MLB4:10 PM

Marlins @ Brewers

We’ve got an afternoon duel under the roof in Milwaukee as the National League Central-leading Brewers play host to the struggling Marlins at American Family Field. While the public is likely staring at Max Meyer’s shiny 9-1 record and 2.58 ERA, a sharp look under the hood tells a completely different story. Meyer’s underlying xERA stands at a much more mortal 3.77, representing a massive 1.19-run gap that suggests regression is looming. He is running headfirst into a scorching-hot Milwaukee offense that is hitting the cover off the ball, posting a spectacular .372 xwOBA, a .342 expected batting average, and a 40.0% hard-hit rate over their last three games. On the other side of the ledger, Brewers starter Shane Drohan has been as steady as they come. His 3.09 ERA is backed by a rock-solid 3.36 xERA, showing his success is no fluke. Since both Meyer and Drohan have matching 0.93 GO/AO ratios that tilt toward fly balls, outfield range is going to decide who keeps the ball in the yard. Milwaukee possesses a premier defensive unit that ranks 7th in the majors with 20 Defensive Runs Saved, whereas Miami trotts out a bottom-five defense with a -8 DRS and 60 errors on the season. Even with the fresh loss of outfielder Sal Frelick to a shoulder strain today, the Brewers' defensive safety net and offensive depth are vastly superior to a Miami team currently on a four-game skid where they've managed just six total runs. The bullpen situation only widens the gap. Milwaukee’s back-end arms are exceptionally fresh; despite playing extra innings yesterday, their top-tier high-leverage relievers Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe combined for a mere 22 pitches. They also get a major boost with Lance McCullers Jr. joining the relief corps. Meanwhile, Miami’s relief depth has been significantly compromised by recent injuries, forcing them to rely on high-exposure middle relievers. When you couple Milwaukee's dominant 30-18 home record with Miami's dismal 21-26 road splits, laying the -142 price on the Brewers in their own building is a beautiful piece of business.

Brewers ML-142

CONF

78%

MLB4:10 PM

Padres @ Royals

We are live under the hot summer sun at Kauffman Stadium, where a humid afternoon sets the stage for an intriguing battle between the San Diego Padres and the Kansas City Royals. The betting public is giving far too much respect to Randy Dobnak’s deceptive 1.86 ERA, which is a complete small-sample illusion built over just 9.2 innings of work. Dobnak’s underlying metrics are highly alarming, highlighted by a 4.90 xERA and an incredibly low 3.7 K/9 strikeout rate. In this game, if you do not miss bats, you are completely at the mercy of your defense. That becomes a fatal flaw for Kansas City today. The Royals are facing a severe defensive crisis with elite range leaders Maikel Garcia and Kyle Isbel both newly confirmed on the 10-day IL. Without Garcia at third and Isbel in center field, a heavy groundball pitcher like Dobnak (1.67 GO/AO) is in serious trouble against a disciplined Padres offense. San Diego is perfectly positioned to exploit Dobnak’s high-contact profile, particularly his heavy 40.9% sinker usage. Padres first baseman Ty France, who is absolute fire hitting .348 over his last 14 games, carries an elite .422 xwOBA against sinkers and is primed to drive the ball into the gaps. Meanwhile, Padres starter Griffin Canning is due for immense positive regression. His ugly 6.47 ERA is heavily contradicted by a much stronger 4.67 xERA, and he has been in excellent recent form, surrendering just 6 earned runs over his last 4 starts (17.1 IP). Canning also offers a solid 8.9 K/9 strikeout rate that keeps his defense out of high-stress situations far better than Dobnak can. Once this game shifts to the late innings, the bullpen matchup becomes an absolute mismatch in San Diego's favor. While the Royals are managing a systemic injury crisis with four key relievers on the IL—forcing them to rely on heavily taxed and struggling arms like Lucas Erceg (5.21 ERA) and Alex Lange (6.00 ERA)—the Padres can comfortably hand a lead to elite closer Mason Miller (0.89 ERA, 16.6 K/9) and reliable lefty Adrian Morejon (3.46 ERA). At a near-even moneyline, the Padres are the far superior, healthier, and more complete team. We are putting our money on the better arm and the stronger bullpen to cash this ticket.

Padres ML-110

CONF

82%

MLB4:10 PM

Cardinals @ Diamondbacks

Under the climate-controlled roof of Chase Field, two National League wild-card contenders square off as the St. Louis Cardinals look to make it two in a row against the Arizona Diamondbacks. At a near-even price of -102, the value tonight lies squarely with the visiting Redbirds. Starting on the mound, Dustin May brings a deceptively high 4.55 ERA, but his stellar 3.74 xERA reveals a massive +0.81 positive regression gap, meaning he is pitching far better than his basic line suggests. May’s elite 96.9 mph four-seamer offers a challenging 'first-look' for an Arizona offense that has exactly zero career plate appearances against him. Conversely, Brandon Pfaadt’s 4.70 ERA is backed by a much more vulnerable 4.42 xERA, showing he has less room for positive regression. The matchup splits heavily favor the Cardinals' left-handed power bats against Pfaadt, who has struggled against left-handed hitting to the tune of a .292 AVG, .877 OPS, and 7 home runs allowed. St. Louis features lethal lefties like Lars Nootbaar, who hits righties for a .282 AVG and .818 OPS, and Alec Burleson, who is tearing up right-handed pitching at a .309 AVG and .939 OPS. Meanwhile, Arizona’s top stars struggle when facing right-handed pitching like May, with Ketel Marte hitting .240 with a .709 OPS and Corbin Carroll hitting .203 with a .740 OPS against righties. While both starting pitchers have struggled in day games—with May carrying a 6.60 day ERA and Pfaadt at 5.84—St. Louis' top bats thrive in the afternoon. Nootbaar raises his game to an .866 day-game OPS (compared to .724 at night) and Jordan Walker boasts a .911 day OPS. On a team level, the Cardinals own the superior overall record of 51-45 (including an excellent 25-19 mark on the road) compared to Arizona's 49-48 record. St. Louis outclasses Arizona offensively, averaging 4.5 runs per game with a .242 AVG and .708 OPS, while the Diamondbacks counter with 4.3 runs per game, a .237 AVG, and a .693 OPS. The pitching numbers are also on the visitors' side, with the St. Louis staff carrying a 4.11 ERA and 7.6 K/9, compared to Arizona's 4.20 ERA and 6.9 K/9. Historical head-to-head metrics seal the deal: the Cardinals' core of Burleson, Walker, and Nootbaar has limited Pfaadt to a meager 3-for-24 (.125 AVG) in their careers. Grab the Cardinals moneyline at -102 as they leverage their superior starting pitching quality and massive platoon advantages.

Cardinals ML-102

CONF

78%

WC5:00 PM

England @ France

Hard Rock Stadium plays host to a heavyweight bronze medal clash as France and England look to salvage their World Cup campaigns under the blazing Florida sun. With a podium finish on the line, this classic European rivalry takes on a fascinating dynamic of heavy squad rotation and grueling environmental conditions. The betting value here lies entirely with France on the 3-way moneyline. While both managers are refreshing their lineups, the disparity in quality and motivation is stark. Didier Deschamps is coaching his final match after a legendary 14-year run, and his players have a massive emotional incentive to send him off with a victory. France is retaining a strong starting core, including Kylian Mbappé, who has his sights set on securing the Golden Boot with his tournament-leading 8 goals. Conversely, Thomas Tuchel is fielding a heavily experimental England lineup featuring Nico O'Reilly and Morgan Rogers in midfield, while key anchor Declan Rice is benched due to extreme fatigue and illness. Without Rice protecting a defense that has already conceded 1.14 goals per match, England's makeshift side will struggle to contain a French attack that also introduces fresh, high-caliber talents like Michael Olise and Rayan Cherki.

France ML-120

CONF

78%

WC5:00 PM

England @ France

Hard Rock Stadium plays host to a heavyweight bronze medal clash as France and England look to salvage their World Cup campaigns under the blazing Florida sun. With a podium finish on the line, this classic European rivalry takes on a fascinating dynamic of heavy squad rotation and grueling environmental conditions. When it comes to the total, the Under 3.5 at -135 is the sharp play. The primary adversary for both teams today isn't each other—it's the extreme Miami heat, with a kickoff temperature of 90°F and a suffocating heat index reaching 104°F to 106°F. FIFA will implement mandatory cooling breaks, which will repeatedly halt any attacking momentum. Furthermore, England has logged a grueling 20,600 kilometers of travel across eight cities this tournament compared to France's concentrated East Coast path. With heavy legs, extreme humidity, and extensive squad rotation, neither team will have the physical capacity to play at a breakneck pace. France's defense has been remarkably stout all tournament, conceding just 0.57 goals per game and keeping four clean sheets. Expect a highly controlled, measured game where energy conservation limits the total output.

Under 3.5-135

CONF

82%

MLB7:10 PM

Pirates @ Guardians

The nightcap of this split doubleheader at Progressive Field features a fascinating clash of pitching strategies, as the Cleveland Guardians turn to left-hander Logan Allen while the Pittsburgh Pirates counter with a bullpen game opened by high-velocity lefty Mason Montgomery. While Cleveland holds the deeper, more rested bullpen for the late innings, the starting pitching matchup heavily favors Pittsburgh in the early going. Montgomery brings elite raw stuff, including a 98.2 mph fastball and sinker that have generated 55 strikeouts over 37.0 innings for a stellar 13.4 K/9 rate. Conversely, Allen is making his first start of the season after throwing just 4.0 innings of relief. Although Allen carries a clean 0.00 ERA, his underlying metrics are incredibly fragile, having allowed an 18.2% barrel rate and a 54.5% hard-hit rate across 11 batted ball events. Pittsburgh's powerful offense is poised to exploit these contact vulnerabilities immediately. The matchup dynamics become even more pronounced when examining the platoon splits for both lineups. The Pirates feature a right-handed and switch-hitting core specifically designed to punish left-handed pitching like Allen. Esmerlyn Valdez is absolutely hammering lefties this season, sporting a .355 batting average, a 1.412 OPS, and 5 home runs in just 31 at-bats, while matching up perfectly against Allen's primary 4-seam fastball with a .412 xwOBA. He is joined by Bryan Reynolds, who dominates left-handers to the tune of a .313 average and a .949 OPS. On the other hand, the Guardians feature a left-handed heavy lineup that struggles mightily in these matchups. Travis Bazzana is hitting just .176 with a .521 OPS against left-handed pitchers, and Brayan Rocchio is at a modest .233 average and .672 OPS. Facing Montgomery and a parade of left-handed relievers will make it difficult for Cleveland to generate consistent offense. Furthermore, the Pirates enter tonight's matchup with immense momentum, riding a four-game winning streak and carrying a vastly superior +95 run differential that dwarfs Cleveland's +28. Pittsburgh's offense averages a potent 5.3 runs per game compared to Cleveland's 4.0 runs per game. While a bullpen game carries inherent risk, the looming threat of severe thunderstorms and an 80% chance of rain at game time adds immense volatility. A weather delay would disrupt a traditional starter like Allen far more than a Pirates squad already prepared to piece together 9 innings. At near-even money, backing the deeper, more explosive offense with a distinct platoon advantage is the sharp play. Take the Pirates on the moneyline to sweep the doubleheader.

Pirates ML-104

CONF

72%

MLB8:08 PM

Giants @ Mariners

Welcome to T-Mobile Park, where the marine air is cool, the skies are clear, and the AL West playoff race is tightening. Tonight, we have an absolute beauty of a pitching mismatch. Bryan Woo takes the hill for the Mariners, and he is a completely different beast when pitching at home. Woo has been dominant in Seattle, posting a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at T-Mobile Park compared to his 6.28 ERA on the road. The analytics love him tonight too, with a season xERA of 3.51 suggesting his actual 4.23 ERA is due for positive regression. T-Mobile Park is highly pitcher-friendly with a 0.94 factor, and tonight’s 8 mph wind blowing in from left field creates an advantage for a fly-ball pitcher like Woo, who sports a 0.66 GO/AO ratio. On the other side, the Giants roll out Logan Webb, and the situation looks precarious. Webb struggles in night games, posting a 4.95 ERA, and enters tonight's contest in a slump after surrendering 12 earned runs over 17.0 innings in two of his last three starts. Unlike Woo, Webb relies heavily on the ground ball with a 1.57 GO/AO ratio. That strategy is dangerous tonight because the Giants' defense is one of the leakier units in the league, committing 66 errors with a .981 fielding percentage compared to Seattle's cleaner .985 fielding percentage and 51 errors. To make matters worse, the Giants are without their defensive anchor at third base, as Matt Chapman was recently sidelined with an abdomen injury. Asking Webb to navigate a contact-heavy game without his Gold Glove defender is a major disadvantage. The offense also favors the home side. The Mariners receive a monumental lift with star outfielder Julio Rodriguez returning to the roster today. Rodriguez, who brings his 14 home runs and .747 OPS back, gives Seattle the centerpiece they have missed. While the Giants' left-handed heavy lineup matches up well against Woo’s four-seamer on paper, Woo holds left-handed hitters to a respectable .694 OPS while holding right-handers to a stifling .527 OPS. While the Giants' bullpen is fresh, the starting pitching and defensive gaps are too wide to ignore. Backing Woo at home is the sharp play.

Mariners ML-158

CONF

72%

MLB10:05 PM

Nationals @ Athletics

Under the clear, hot evening skies of West Sacramento, the Washington Nationals look to keep their bats blazing at Sutter Health Park against an Oakland Athletics team desperate to halt a season-worst slide. While the market has priced this game near a coin-flip because of the starting pitcher ERAs, it is completely overlooking the massive systemic advantages Washington holds tonight. J.T. Ginn has been solid with a 3.67 ERA, but he is running into a buzzsaw. The Nationals are absolute road warriors with a 29-18 away record, and their offense is in an elite groove, posting a .493 xwOBA and a 15.3% barrel rate over their last two games. They roll out a lineup featuring eight left-handed or switch hitters perfectly positioned to attack Ginn's .777 OPS platoon split, led by James Wood and Luis Garcia Jr., who carry 1.029 and .909 OPS marks against right-handed pitching. While Sutter Health Park is projecting a 1.6x increase in home run probability tonight due to the 89-degree temperature and an 8 mph wind blowing out to left field, only Washington is built to exploit it. The Nationals are launching the ball at a 15.5-degree average angle, whereas Oakland's lineup has been hitting at a low 7.2-degree angle. More importantly, the Athletics' lineup has been gutted by fresh injuries, losing Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, and Zack Gelof within the last 24 to 48 hours. Without their primary power sources, Oakland lacks the thump to exploit Zack Littell's fly-ball tendencies (0.64 GO/AO) and his high 11.4% barrel rate allowed. The ultimate tiebreaker is the bullpen. Washington did not throw a single high-leverage relief pitch yesterday, leaving their high-leverage core completely rested. Meanwhile, the Athletics are mired in a ten-game losing streak where they are allowing 9.1 runs per game, and their bullpen is in a fatigue crisis. Oakland's relief corps has faced an MLB-high 37 batters over the last three days while surrendering a massive 2.92 runs per game. If Ginn gets chased early, Oakland's exhausted pen will crumble. Getting a red-hot Washington club with a rested bullpen and a stellar road record at -112 against a depleted, sliding Oakland squad is an absolute steal. Take the Nationals on the moneyline.

Nationals ML-112

CONF

78%

MLB10:07 PM

Tigers @ Angels

Tonight under the lights at Angel Stadium, a warm summer breeze blows out toward right field as the Tigers look to continue their hot streak against a struggling Angels squad. This is a game where the starting pitching matchup dictates everything, but the betting market is still giving us a very playable price on the run line. I am laying the run and taking the Tigers at -1.5 (-118). When you have a Cy Young contender like Tarik Skubal on the bump against a starting pitcher who has been completely shellshocked at home, you don't overcomplicate it—you take the side with the massive, quantifiable edge. The matchup on the mound is a nightmare for Los Angeles. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has been brilliant, holding right-handed hitters to a microscopic .194 batting average and a .591 OPS this year. That completely neutralizes an Angels order that features eight righties in the lineup tonight. Conversely, Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez has been a disaster, bringing a 7.55 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a horrific 9.58 home ERA into tonight's start. Rodriguez has been utterly non-competitive against left-handed hitters, allowing a .357 average and an astronomical 1.068 OPS. The Tigers are starting six left-handed bats tonight, including Riley Greene, who boasts an .879 OPS against righties, and rookie Kevin McGonigle. With a 10 mph wind blowing out toward right field and Rodriguez's heavy fly-ball profile, Detroit's lefties should easily launch a few balls out of the park. Beyond the starting pitching, the bullpen and defensive situations make this a mismatch. Yesterday's blown save by Angels closer Kirby Yates, who saw his fastball velocity dip to a career-low 91.0 mph, leaves the Los Angeles pen completely vulnerable. Their primary setup men are taxed, and they lack high-leverage depth. Detroit, on the other hand, has a rested high-leverage core in Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan, who did not appear in Friday's game and are fully fresh to lock things down. When you add the Tigers' superior defense and Dillon Dingler's elite play behind the plate, Detroit has multiple ways to secure a multi-run victory. Don't let the road designation scare you off; the Tigers have the weapons to turn this into a comfortable win.

Tigers -1.5-118

CONF

85%

Player props

MLB · Pirates @ Guardians

Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter is hitting third in a Guardians lineup that matches up well against Jared Jones' statistical profile. Jones has been dominant against right-handers but shows a clear split against lefties, allowing an .815 OPS and 4 of his 5 home runs to that side of the plate this season. The environmental factors today are a significant variable; with temperatures at 89 degrees and a 14-mph wind blowing out toward right field, DeLauter’s left-handed bat is in a position to benefit from the carry. He has been in elite form with 4 home runs and a .293 average over his last 10 games, and hitting third ensures he sees the high-leverage situations where his power can clear this line with one swing.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· Chase DeLauter: .293 AVG and 4 HR in last 10 games
· Jared Jones: .815 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters
· Weather: 89°F with 14 mph wind blowing out to RF

MLB · Pirates @ Guardians

Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez is currently the most productive hitter in the Pirates' lineup, carrying a 1.084 OPS into today's game. He faces Gavin Williams, whose 3.81 ERA is significantly lower than his 4.39 xERA, suggesting he is a prime regression candidate.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+140

· Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.084 OPS and 4 HR in last 10 games
· Gavin Williams: 4.39 xERA vs 3.81 ERA (regression candidate)
· Gavin Williams: 48.6% Hard-Hit rate allowed

MLB · Twins @ Cubs

Ryan Jeffers

The Twins have positioned Ryan Jeffers in the 2-hole specifically to punish the left-handed Matthew Boyd. Jeffers is a documented southpaw-crusher, slashing .319/.938 OPS against lefties this season.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+113

· Ryan Jeffers .319 AVG and .938 OPS vs LHP in 2026
· Matthew Boyd 4.90 xERA vs 4.50 actual ERA
· Jeffers has 2+ Total Bases in 5 consecutive games

MLB · Twins @ Cubs

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Wrigley Field is a power-booster for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who sees his OPS jump to 1.009 at home compared to .825 on the road. Today's environment is perfectly tailored for his profile: he faces Taj Bradley, a pitcher who lives in the air with a very low 0.63 GO/AO ratio.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+110

· Pete Crow-Armstrong .321 AVG and 1.009 OPS at Wrigley Field
· Taj Bradley 0.63 GO/AO ratio (heavy fly-ball pitcher)
· 13 mph wind and 86-degree temperature at game time

MLB · White Sox @ Blue Jays

Andrew Benintendi

Andrew Benintendi enters this matchup with a massive historical edge, having dominated Shane Bieber for a .524 career average (11-for-21). While historical numbers can be noisy, they align perfectly with Bieber's current collapse; the right-hander is sporting a 7.64 ERA and a horrific 11.53 xERA through four starts.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+134

· Andrew Benintendi .524 career AVG (11-for-21) vs. Shane Bieber
· Shane Bieber 11.53 xERA and 55.6% hard-hit% allowed in 2026
· Bieber allowing .951 OPS to left-handed hitters this season

MLB · Reds @ Rockies

Elly De La Cruz

This is a pure regression play against Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, whose surface-level ERA (4.80) masks an abysmal 7.07 xERA. Sugano is living on borrowed time, evidenced by his league-bottom contact metrics (44.6% Hard-hit rate and 14% Barrel rate allowed).

OVER 2.5 Total Bases+115

· Elly De La Cruz .350 AVG and 3 HR in last 10 games
· Tomoyuki Sugano 7.07 xERA vs 4.80 actual ERA
· Sugano 44.6% Hard-hit rate and 14% Barrel rate allowed

MLB · Reds @ Rockies

Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak is in a prime situational spot against Rhett Lowder, who has shown a significant struggle against left-handed power this season. Lowder has surrendered 8 of his 9 home runs to lefties, despite facing them in only 60% of his total at-bats.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-125

· Rhett Lowder 8 HR allowed in 164 AB to LHB (.817 OPS)
· Moniak 15 HR on the season with .888 OPS
· Moniak coming off a home run and 2-RBI performance yesterday

MLB · Mets @ Phillies

Bryson Stott

Stott has demonstrated a clear comfort level against Sean Manaea, logging a career .444 average and a home run in their limited head-to-head history. While Manaea is statistically tougher on lefties this season (.230 AVG allowed), Stott's specific success suggests he tracks Manaea's release well. The environment is the deciding factor; Manaea is a fly-ball-heavy pitcher (0.83 GO/AO), and today's weather features 85-degree temperatures and an 8-mph wind blowing directly out to right field. In a hitter-friendly venue with a 1.06 park factor, Stott only needs one ball to find grass or clear the fence to cash this prop.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-154

· 4-for-9 (.444) career AVG vs Manaea
· Manaea 0.83 GO/AO (Fly-ball pitcher)
· -154 odds need >60.6% win probability

MLB · Mets @ Phillies

Trea Turner

This pick targets the significant platoon disadvantage for Sean Manaea, who is allowing a massive .856 OPS to right-handed hitters this year. Turner has capitalized on this matchup historically, batting .333 with a home run across 21 career at-bats against the southpaw. Despite a localized 10-game slump (.205 AVG), the volume floor provided by the leadoff spot (4-5 expected plate appearances) and the elite hitting conditions at Citizens Bank Park provide Turner with a high-ceiling opportunity to clear the 1.5 mark. With wind blowing out to his pull side and high temperatures increasing ball carry, a single extra-base hit or a multi-hit game is well within his career baseline against this starter.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-104

· Manaea .856 OPS allowed to RHB in 2026
· 7-for-21 (.333) career AVG vs Manaea
· -104 odds need >51.0% win probability

MLB · Rays @ Red Sox

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras is the quintessential 'Lefty Killer' and enters this matchup in elite form, batting .344 over his last 10 games. He faces Ian Seymour, a fly-ball pitcher who has developed a consistent habit of giving up the long ball, allowing a home run in every one of his last five starts. Fenway Park is already a dangerous environment for fly-ball pitchers, but with 20 mph winds gusting straight out to left field, Contreras's pull-side power is perfectly positioned to exploit Seymour's 8.4% barrel rate. Batting cleanup for a Red Sox team on an 11-game winning streak, Contreras should see multiple opportunities with runners on base to drive a ball into the gaps or over the Monster.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-104

· Willson Contreras: .982 OPS vs LHP this season
· Willson Contreras: 4 HR and 12 RBI in last 10 games (.344 AVG)
· Ian Seymour: Has allowed a home run in 5 consecutive starts

MLB · Rays @ Red Sox

Wilyer Abreu

While the 'Lefty-on-Lefty' matchup is usually a deterrent, Wilyer Abreu possesses some of the most dominant reverse splits in the league, hitting .345 against southpaws. This aligns perfectly with Ian Seymour's own vulnerability, as the Rays' starter has struggled significantly more against left-handed bats, surrendering 7 home runs and an .843 OPS to his own side. Abreu is coming off a massive performance where he collected 7 total bases, and batting third in the Red Sox lineup ensures he will see high-leverage pitches with the wind at Fenway blowing 20 mph out toward left-center. In a park where fly balls carry, Abreu's ability to drive the ball against lefties makes this line look undervalued.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+106

· Wilyer Abreu: .345 AVG / .948 OPS vs LHP this season
· Ian Seymour: .843 OPS allowed to LHB in 2026
· Abreu: 7 total bases in his most recent game (3-for-5, 1 HR)

MLB · Rangers @ Braves

Matt Olson

The betting market often defaults to the lefty-on-lefty suppression narrative, but MacKenzie Gore has been uniquely vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .281 average to the platoon. Matt Olson is in the middle of a significant power surge, having launched four home runs in his last ten games. Truist Park is expected to be nearly 90 degrees at first pitch with wind blowing out toward the left-center field gap, which heavily favors Olson's high fly-ball profile against a pitcher like Gore who owns a 0.73 GO/AO ratio (leaning heavily toward fly balls). Olson has already demonstrated multi-hit and multi-HR upside this week, and in these atmospheric conditions, a single extra-base hit or a multi-hit performance against a pitcher with backward splits is a high-probability path to cashing.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+111

· MacKenzie Gore allowing .281 AVG and .783 OPS to LHB this season
· Matt Olson 4 home runs in his last 10 games
· +111 odds require a break-even win probability of 47.4%

MLB · Rangers @ Braves

Josh Jung

Josh Jung enters this matchup as the Rangers' most consistent producer, batting .306 over his last ten games with three multi-hit efforts in his last five starts. He faces Braves rookie Owen Murphy, who is making his MLB debut.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+113

· Josh Jung .306 batting average over his last 10 games
· Owen Murphy 77.8% hard-hit rate and 0.33 GO/AO ratio in limited exposure
· +113 odds require a break-even win probability of 46.9%

MLB · Marlins @ Brewers

Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez is currently the most locked-in hitter in the Marlins lineup, and tonight's matchup against southpaw Shane Drohan is statistically his ideal environment. Lopez has been a 'Lefty-Killer' all season, posting a massive .416 batting average and a 1.039 OPS when facing left-handed pitching.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· Otto Lopez .416 AVG / 1.039 OPS against LHP this season
· Lopez has 3-hit games in each of his last two starts with 2 total HRs
· Break-even win probability needed: 45.5% (+120)

MLB · Padres @ Royals

Vinnie Pasquantino

This play is a direct attack on the most lopsided platoon split in tonight's pitching matchup. Griffin Canning has been historically vulnerable to left-handed power this season, surrendering nearly all his damage (8 home runs, .920 OPS) to the left side of the plate.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-132

· Griffin Canning allows .920 OPS and 8 HR to left-handed hitters in 128 ABs (2026)
· Vinnie Pasquantino is hitting .289 over his last 10 games with 3 RBIs
· Weather: 90°F with 8 mph wind blowing out to center field

MLB · Padres @ Royals

Manny Machado

Manny Machado is trending upward at the right time to exploit a massive regression candidate in Randy Dobnak. While Dobnak's 1.86 ERA looks intimidating on paper, his underlying metrics (4.90 xERA) reveal a pitcher who has been incredibly fortunate to avoid damage.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-101

· Randy Dobnak ERA 1.86 vs xERA 4.90 (3.04 run luck discrepancy)
· Manny Machado recorded 5 Total Bases (2-for-4, HR) in yesterday's game
· Game Total: 11 runs (implied high-scoring environment)

MLB · Cardinals @ Diamondbacks

JJ Wetherholt

JJ Wetherholt is perfectly positioned to exploit Brandon Pfaadt's primary statistical vulnerability. Pfaadt has struggled significantly against left-handed hitters this season, yielding a .292 AVG and a massive .877 OPS with 7 home runs allowed to LHBs in just 113 at-bats.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115

· Pfaadt vs LHB: .877 OPS allowed (7 HR in 113 AB)
· Pfaadt Day ERA: 5.84 (Home ERA: 5.28)
· Wetherholt: Hit 402-foot HR yesterday

MLB · Orioles @ Astros

Pete Alonso

This is a clear situational edge against Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled significantly of late. Arrighetti has surrendered an alarmingly high 9.72 ERA over his last five starts, most recently getting chased after allowing eight earned runs in just three innings of work on July 8.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+131

· Spencer Arrighetti: 9.72 ERA over his last 5 starts
· Pete Alonso: .874 OPS and 17 HR against RHP this season
· Break-even probability: 43.3% (+131 odds)

MLB · Orioles @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez is currently putting together an MVP-caliber season and is a legitimate Triple Crown contender, leading the league in several power categories while maintaining a .321 average. His performance at Daikin Park is elite, where he boasts a .366 average and a massive 1.184 OPS.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+107

· Yordan Alvarez: .366 AVG and 1.184 OPS at home this season
· Alvarez: .351 AVG with 4 HR over his last 10 games
· Break-even probability: 48.3% (+107 odds)

WC · England @ France

Kylian Mbappé

**ROLE & MINUTES:** Mbappe starts as the focal point of the French attack (LF/CF) and is the primary penalty taker. Expect him to play the full 90 minutes as he chases the Golden Boot. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Motivation and fresh legs. This is Didier Deschamps' final match, and Mbappe is locked in a dead heat with Lionel Messi (8 goals each) for the Golden Boot.

OVER 1 Anytime Goal-137

· Kylian Mbappe: 8 tournament goals (tied for lead)
· England: 20,600 km traveled (most in tournament)
· France: 2.29 goals per match tournament average

WC · England @ France

Jordan Pickford

**ROLE & MINUTES:** Starting goalkeeper, guaranteed 90 minutes. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Shot suppression vs. Shot volume. France is the most aggressive attacking team in this tournament, averaging over 7 shots on frame per match.

OVER 4 Saves-110

· France: 7.1 shots on target per match (tournament avg)
· England: Rotated defense starting Spence and O'Reilly
· Market implied probability: 52%

MLB · Giants @ Mariners

Randy Arozarena

The matchup between Logan Webb and Randy Arozarena heavily favors the pitcher tonight. Webb has been dominant against right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .211 average and an elite .593 OPS.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+161

· Logan Webb vs RHB: .211 AVG / .593 OPS allowed in 2026
· Randy Arozarena career vs Logan Webb: 0-for-4
· Line needs >38.3% win probability

MLB · Tigers @ Angels

Riley Greene

Riley Greene enters this contest in excellent form, slashing .313 over his last 10 games with three multi-hit performances in his last four starts. The deciding factor here is the staggering seasonal struggle of Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez against left-handed hitters. Rodriguez has been porous against lefties, allowing a .357 batting average and a 1.068 OPS this season.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+110

· Grayson Rodriguez allows .357 AVG and 1.068 OPS to left-handed hitters
· Riley Greene is batting .313 with 2 HR in his last 10 games
· Weather features 85-degree temperatures and 10 mph wind blowing out to RF

MLB HR · Nationals @ Athletics

James Wood

James Wood is in the midst of a legendary power surge, clubbing 6 home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight, he enters an absolute launching pad at Sutter Health Park, where 89-degree temperatures and an 8 mph wind blowing out to left field have combined for a 60% increase in HR probability.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+230

· 6 HR in last 10 games (60% hit rate)
· Sutter Health Park: 1.6x (60%) increase in home run probability tonight
· Break-even win probability: 30.3% (+230)

MLB · Nationals @ Athletics

James Wood

The 'Gary Special' 3rd pick focuses on James Wood's total offensive floor. By taking the Over 2.5 on his combined hits, runs, and RBIs, we are essentially betting on the same environmental and matchup factors that support the home run prop, but with a safer path to victory.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+100

· Wood has cleared 2.5 H+R+RBI in 3 of his last 4 games
· Wood averages 1.45 Runs+RBIs per game over his last 10
· Break-even win probability: 50.0% (+100)

MLB · Nationals @ Athletics

Tyler Soderstrom

Tyler Soderstrom is in a prime position to capitalize on Zack Littell's extreme platoon vulnerability. Littell has been hammered by left-handed hitters this season, yielding a .914 OPS and 17 of his 23 total home runs to the left side.

OVER 0.5 RBI+132

· Zack Littell vs LHB: .914 OPS allowed, 17 of 23 HR allowed
· Littell xERA: 6.39 (actual 4.90) suggests massive regression due
· Break-even win probability: 43.1% (+132)

Hub research

138

fantasy_pickupsCHW @ TOR
Andrew Benintendi
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (11.53 xERA) — .732 OPS, bats 5th.
fantasy_pickupsCHW @ TOR
Colson Montgomery
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (11.53 xERA) — .778 OPS, bats 4th.
fantasy_pickupsCHW @ TOR
Miguel Vargas
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (11.53 xERA) — .846 OPS, bats 3rd.
fantasy_pickupsCHW @ TOR
Sam Antonacci
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (11.53 xERA) — .810 OPS, bats 1st.
park_weatherTB @ BOS
Wind blowing out 20 mph at Fenway Park tonight
Conditions at Fenway Park: Cloudy, 80°, wind 20 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 13 vs 9.5 (over lean)
starter_team_recordNYM @ PHI
Phillies 7-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 7 starts
Phillies are 7-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 7 starts this season — winners of his last 7 in a row. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeCHW @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Davis Martin (RHP)
Over 167 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .828 OPS versus .319 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP Davis Martin tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordMIN @ CHC
Cubs 7-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
Cubs are 7-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_formBAL @ HOU
Spencer Arrighetti: 11.77 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 11.77 ERA over his last 13 innings with a 2.00 WHIP (1.33 season) — the 4.50 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
platoon_edgeSTL @ ARI
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
Over 249 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .939 OPS versus .497 in 114 AB the other way. He sees RHP Brandon Pfaadt tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
streakingTEX @ ATL
TEX games have gone OVER 7 straight
The over has cashed 7 in a row in TEX games: 11.4 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 7.9. Tonight's number sits at 9.
P final total 13 vs 9
platoon_edgeCHW @ TOR
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Shane Bieber (RHP)
Over 207 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .892 OPS versus .519 in 59 AB the other way. He sees RHP Shane Bieber tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeCIN @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.957 OPS, 172 AB) sits well above his .588 mark the other way (40 AB). Tonight's starter Rhett Lowder throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
regression_watchCHW @ TOR
Shane Bieber: 7.64 ERA vs 11.53 xERA
Shane Bieber carries a 7.64 ERA against a 11.53 expected ERA (3.89 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .342 off him vs a .364 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
heat_checkWSH @ OAK
James Wood: 1.600 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (35 PA) he is at a 1.600 OPS, up 0.622 on his .978 season mark. He has 28 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftNYM @ PHI
Jesus Luzardo owns a 6.60 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 1.38 everywhere else
Across 8 games (45 IP) at Citizens Bank Park, Jesus Luzardo has a 6.60 ERA against 1.38 at his other parks (65.3 IP). Hitters bat .273 off him here.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
starter_team_recordMIN @ CHC
Twins 6-2 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts
Twins are 6-2 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 6 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordPIT @ CLE
Pirates 6-2 in Mason Montgomery's last 8 starts
Pirates are 6-2 in Mason Montgomery's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordSTL @ ARI
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgePIT @ CLE
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Jared Jones (RHP)
Over 159 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .825 OPS versus .521 in 85 AB the other way. He sees RHP Jared Jones tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 2 BB
head_to_headCHW @ TOR
White Sox are 4-0 vs Blue Jays this season
White Sox lead the season series 4-0 over Blue Jays. CHW won the last meeting 12-4.
starter_team_recordMIA @ MIL
Marlins 6-2 in Max Meyer's last 8 starts
Marlins are 6-2 in Max Meyer's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordCIN @ COL
Reds 2-6 in Rhett Lowder's last 8 starts
Reds are 2-6 in Rhett Lowder's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordCIN @ COL
Rockies 6-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 8 starts
Rockies are 6-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
ownedCHW @ TOR
Andrew Benintendi vs Shane Bieber: .524
Andrew Benintendi's career line off Shane Bieber is 11-for-21, a .524 average over 21 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.760 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeMIA @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.915 OPS, 260 AB) sits well above his .568 mark the other way (101 AB). Tonight's starter Max Meyer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
cooling_offCHW @ TOR
Daulton Varsho: .221 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
Daulton Varsho's .221 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .686 season mark, down 0.465. Tonight he draws RHP Davis Martin — his weaker side: a .679 OPS vs RHP across 215 AB.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
cooling_offNYM @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .374 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Sean Manaea
Brandon Marsh's .374 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .819 season mark, down 0.445. Tonight he draws LHP Sean Manaea — his weaker side: a .670 OPS vs LHP across 95 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeSF @ SEA
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.908 OPS, 247 AB) sits well above his .546 mark the other way (123 AB). Tonight's starter Bryan Woo throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
rest_fatigueCHW @ TOR
CHW's bullpen has covered 17 innings over the last 3 games
That is 17 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tyler Schweitzer (5) and Erick Fedde (4). TOR's pen has thrown 13.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 0-1
heat_checkMIA @ MIL
Heriberto Hernandez: 1.330 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.330 OPS spans the last 15 days (33 PA) against a .793 season baseline, a 0.537 swing. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeSD @ KC
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 5th against Griffin Canning (RHP)
Over 188 AB vs. Right, Vinnie Pasquantino owns a .755 OPS versus .396 in 77 AB the other way. He sees RHP Griffin Canning tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeWSH @ OAK
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.909 OPS, 263 AB) sits well above his .619 mark the other way (40 AB). Tonight's starter J.T. Ginn throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatigueWSH @ OAK
WSH's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (4) and Miles Mikolas (4). OAK's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-15
rest_fatigueSD @ KC
16.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 16.7 innings over the last 3 games (Matt Waldron (3) and Adrian Morejon (3) the heaviest). KC's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-6
cooling_offSTL @ ARI
Ketel Marte: .454 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dustin May
Ketel Marte's .454 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .767 season mark, down 0.313. Tonight he draws RHP Dustin May — his weaker side: a .709 OPS vs RHP across 279 AB.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkSD @ KC
Lane Thomas: 1.205 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.205 OPS spans the last 15 days (38 PA) against a .744 season baseline, a 0.461 swing. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
rest_fatigueTB @ BOS
BOS's pen has logged 16 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 16 innings out of the pen — Brayan Bello (4.3) and Alec Gamboa (3) carried the load. TB's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 6-7
running_gamePIT @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Henry Davis (54% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis owns a 54% caught-stealing rate (13 of 24) and Cleveland Guardians run anyway — 1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 1 base
cooling_offTB @ BOS
Yandy Diaz: .587 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Yandy Diaz's .587 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .869 season mark, down 0.282. Tonight he draws LHP Patrick Sandoval — his weaker side: a .810 OPS vs LHP across 100 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeBAL @ HOU
Samuel Basallo (bats L) draws Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), batting 5th
Samuel Basallo carries a .849 OPS vs. Right (204 AB) against .518 the other way (74 AB), and faces RHP Spencer Arrighetti from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offMIA @ MIL
Jackson Chourio: .547 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Meyer
Jackson Chourio's .547 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .819 season mark, down 0.272. Tonight he draws RHP Max Meyer — his weaker side: a .792 OPS vs RHP across 194 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
park_weatherPIT @ CLE
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Progressive Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Progressive Field — Partly Cloudy, 89°, wind 14 mph, Out To RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 8 vs 8.5 (over lean)
park_weatherPIT @ CLE
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Progressive Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Progressive Field — Partly Cloudy, 89°, wind 14 mph, Out To RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 8 vs 7.5 (over lean)
regression_tomorrowWSH @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 6.83 ERA vs 3.88 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 6.83 ERA against a 3.88 expected ERA (2.95 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .293 vs .229 expected.
platoon_edgeMIA @ MIL
Otto Lopez (bats R) draws Shane Drohan (LHP), batting 1st
Otto Lopez carries a 1.039 OPS vs. Left (89 AB) against .829 the other way (295 AB), and faces LHP Shane Drohan from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
Spain head the title market at -150
Spain are the market's outright World Cup favourite at -150. Argentina (+128) and Netherlands (+3500) are the next shortest.
cooling_offNYM @ PHI
Bryce Harper: .502 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Sean Manaea
Bryce Harper's .502 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .865 season mark, down 0.363. Tonight he draws LHP Sean Manaea — his weaker side: a .648 OPS vs LHP across 133 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offSTL @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .521 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dustin May
Corbin Carroll's .521 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .830 season mark, down 0.309. Tonight he draws RHP Dustin May — his weaker side: a .740 OPS vs RHP across 241 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_formTEX @ ATL
MacKenzie Gore: 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14 IP) he has been tagged for 13 earned runs — a 8.36 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP (1.29 season) against a 4.63 season mark.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
bullpen_fatigueTB @ BOS
Boston Red Sox pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston Red Sox's bullpen has thrown 16 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
platoon_edgePIT @ CLE
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Gavin Williams (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .870 OPS vs. Right (252 AB) against .641 the other way (105 AB), and faces RHP Gavin Williams from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueMIA @ MIL
MIA's bullpen has covered 14.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Cade Gibson (3) and Calvin Faucher (3). MIL's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 6-8
starter_formBAL @ HOU
Trevor Rogers: 1.04 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 2 earned runs over his last 17.3 innings (1.04 ERA) with a 1.10 WHIP (1.31 season) — a different pitcher than the 4.48 season line says.
P 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
streakingMIN @ CHC
MIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for MIN — their games are producing only 7 runs against numbers around 8.8. Tonight's number sits at 9.
P final total 8 vs 9
streakingTEX @ ATL
ATL games have gone OVER 4 straight
Atlanta Braves games have gone OVER 4 straight — 16.3 runs a night against an average line of 9.5. Tonight's number sits at 9.
P final total 13 vs 9
streakingBAL @ HOU
BAL have won 4 straight
Baltimore Orioles have won 4 straight, outscoring teams by 14 runs over the run; 4-2 across their last 6.
P team won 4-2
streakingBAL @ HOU
BAL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in BAL games: 7.5 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 9.1. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 6 vs 8.5
platoon_edgeMIN @ CHC
Austin Martin (bats R) draws Matthew Boyd (LHP), batting 1st
Austin Martin carries a .809 OPS vs. Left (89 AB) against .603 the other way (141 AB), and faces LHP Matthew Boyd from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
heat_checkMIA @ MIL
Joey Ortiz: .965 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 39 PA: a .965 OPS versus .617 for the season, 0.348 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
streakingPIT @ CLE
PIT have won 4 straight
Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 straight, outscoring teams by 17 runs over the run; 5-2 across their last 7.
P team lost 3-5
streakingCIN @ COL
CIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for CIN — their games are producing only 6.3 runs against numbers around 10.9. Tonight's number sits at 13.
P final total 13 vs 13
ownedNYM @ PHI
Edmundo Sosa vs Sean Manaea: .429
Edmundo Sosa's career line off Sean Manaea is 6-for-14, a .429 average over 14 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.433 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
heat_checkSTL @ ARI
Tim Tawa: 1.275 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 24 PA: a 1.275 OPS versus .735 for the season, 0.54 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowSTL @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.29 ERA vs 5.06 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 2.29 ERA against a 5.06 expected ERA (2.77 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .223 vs .267 expected.
rest_fatigueSTL @ ARI
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Justin Bruihl (3.3) and George Soriano (2.3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-5
starter_formCIN @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 7.88 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.88 ERA over his last 16 innings with a 1.44 WHIP (1.32 season) — the 4.80 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
starter_formWSH @ OAK
J.T. Ginn: 6.91 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14.3 IP) he has been tagged for 11 earned runs — a 6.91 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP (1.25 season) against a 3.67 season mark.
P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
heat_checkCIN @ COL
Spencer Steer: 1.121 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (35 PA) he is at a 1.121 OPS, up 0.351 on his .770 season mark. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchCIN @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.8 ERA vs 7.07 xERA
Tomoyuki Sugano carries a 4.8 ERA against a 7.07 expected ERA (2.27 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .269 off him vs a .310 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
starter_formSD @ KC
Griffin Canning: 3.46 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 5 earned runs over his last 13 innings (3.46 ERA) with a 1.38 WHIP (1.60 season) — a different pitcher than the 6.47 season line says.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
starter_formSTL @ ARI
Brandon Pfaadt: 1.72 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15.7 IP) he has a 1.72 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP (1.32 season) and 10 strikeouts — his season mark is 4.70, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
cooling_offSD @ KC
Gavin Sheets: .391 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Randy Dobnak
Gavin Sheets's .391 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .738 season mark, down 0.347. Tonight he draws RHP Randy Dobnak — his stronger side: a .790 OPS vs RHP across 233 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchPIT @ CLE
Esmerlyn Valdez: .309 AVG vs .239 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .309 average comes against a .239 expected (xBA) on 105 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .450 against a .374 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchNYM @ PHI
Edmundo Sosa: .218 AVG vs .287 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .218 average comes against a .287 expected (xBA) on 162 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .272 against a .340 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
tournamentGROUP OF DEATH
Türkiye were handed a live group
Türkiye are a +13000 title pick, yet only -115 to advance in Group D — the market sees a genuine fight just to escape the group.
heat_checkMIN @ CHC
Luke Keaschall: 1.086 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 29 PA: a 1.086 OPS versus .704 for the season, 0.382 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
rest_fatigueTEX @ ATL
13.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 13.3 innings over the last 3 games (JR Ritchie (4.3) and Owen Murphy (3) the heaviest). TEX's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 7-6
heat_checkCHW @ TOR
Tristan Peters: 1.178 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.178 OPS spans the last 15 days (29 PA) against a .826 season baseline, a 0.352 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
cooling_offPIT @ CLE
Kyle Manzardo: .297 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jared Jones
Kyle Manzardo's .297 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .669 season mark, down 0.372. Tonight he draws RHP Jared Jones — his stronger side: a .671 OPS vs RHP across 214 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
situationalEngland @ France
France rotated 7
Confirmed XI: France made 7 changes from their last match (Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba… out). A heavily-rotated side — resting legs or managing the group — is playing below full strength: value on England (side + over their total) the market is slow to adjust for.
tournamentENG @ FRA
France vs England: Match for 3rd place stakes
This is a match for 3rd place tie — win or go home. To lift the trophy: England are 50-1 outsiders. The market has it France -115 / the draw +295 / England +275.
starter_formDET @ LAA
Grayson Rodriguez: 4.85 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (13 IP) he has a 4.85 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP (1.74 season) and 7 strikeouts — his season mark is 7.55, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 4 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at -100000 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
starter_formSF @ SEA
Logan Webb: 6.35 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.35 ERA over his last 17 innings with a 1.35 WHIP (1.16 season) — the 3.86 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
starter_formWSH @ OAK
Zack Littell: 2.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15 innings, 4 earned runs, 11 Ks. That 2.40 ERA sits 2.5 runs under his 4.90 season number.
P 6 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
heat_checkBAL @ HOU
Yainer Diaz: 1.116 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (23 PA) he is at a 1.116 OPS, up 0.428 on his .688 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
ownedNYM @ PHI
Juan Soto vs Jesus Luzardo: .350
Juan Soto's career line off Jesus Luzardo is 7-for-20, a .350 average over 20 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.098 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchSD @ KC
Griffin Canning: 6.47 ERA vs 4.67 xERA
Griffin Canning carries a 6.47 ERA against a 4.67 expected ERA (1.8 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .278 off him vs a .248 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
cooling_offMIN @ CHC
Ryan Kreidler: .437 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Matthew Boyd
Ryan Kreidler's .437 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .762 season mark, down 0.325. Tonight he draws LHP Matthew Boyd — his weaker side: a .678 OPS vs LHP across 51 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
heat_checkTEX @ ATL
Matt Olson: 1.100 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.100 OPS spans the last 15 days (44 PA) against a .887 season baseline, a 0.213 swing. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
running_gameMIA @ MIL
Miami Marlins like to run — William Contreras (43% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
William Contreras owns a 43% caught-stealing rate (18 of 42) and Miami Marlins run anyway — 1.1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Miami Marlins stole 1 base
heat_checkCIN @ COL
Elly De La Cruz: 1.097 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.097 OPS spans the last 15 days (40 PA) against a .860 season baseline, a 0.237 swing. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 3 TB
cooling_offSD @ KC
Bobby Witt Jr.: .631 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Griffin Canning
Bobby Witt Jr.'s .631 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .809 season mark, down 0.178. Tonight he draws RHP Griffin Canning — his weaker side: a .773 OPS vs RHP across 272 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offPIT @ CLE
Travis Bazzana: .454 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jared Jones
Travis Bazzana's .454 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .719 season mark, down 0.265. Tonight he draws RHP Jared Jones — his stronger side: a .825 OPS vs RHP across 159 AB.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 2 BB
heat_checkPIT @ CLE
Chase DeLauter: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 36 PA: a 1.042 OPS versus .794 for the season, 0.248 above his norm. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchPIT @ CLE
Jake Mangum: .310 AVG vs .260 xBA
Across 253 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .310 average versus a .260 xBA. His wOBA sits at .335 against a .291 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
regression_watchMIN @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .235 AVG vs .284 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .235 against a .284 expected average (xBA) over 424 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .286 against a .317 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 4-for-4, 4 TB
heat_checkSD @ KC
Salvador Perez: .859 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (34 PA) he is at a .859 OPS, up 0.262 on his .597 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
regression_tomorrowDET @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 6.75 ERA vs 4.96 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 6.75 ERA against a 4.96 expected ERA (1.79 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .280 vs .264 expected.
regression_watchWSH @ OAK
Zack Littell: 4.9 ERA vs 6.39 xERA
Zack Littell carries a 4.9 ERA against a 6.39 expected ERA (1.49 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .263 off him vs a .293 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
running_gamePIT @ CLE
Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 6%
Austin Hedges is catching tonight at 6% on the season (2-for-35 throwing), and Pittsburgh Pirates attempt 1.1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
cooling_offSD @ KC
Jac Caglianone: .599 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Griffin Canning
Jac Caglianone's .599 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .778 season mark, down 0.179. Tonight he draws RHP Griffin Canning — his stronger side: a .804 OPS vs RHP across 223 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
xg_recapSUI @ ARG
Argentina created the better chances
Argentina led the xG 2.0–0.5 and took the result to match (3–1).
xg_regressionENG @ FRA
England are finishing above their chances
England are scoring 2.0/match on 1.5 xG — 0.5 goals/match above expected across 7 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
regression_watchCHW @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .298 AVG vs .257 xBA
Across 379 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .298 average versus a .257 xBA. His wOBA sits at .328 against a .275 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
running_gameSD @ KC
San Diego Padres like to run — Carter Jensen (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen owns a 40% caught-stealing rate (16 of 40) and San Diego Padres run anyway — 1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P San Diego Padres stole 1 base
platoon_edgeTEX @ ATL
Eli White (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Eli White's vs. Left line (.738 OPS, 68 AB) sits well above his .570 mark the other way (47 AB). Tonight's starter MacKenzie Gore throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
xg_recapARG @ ENG
Argentina created the better chances
Argentina led the xG 1.8–0.5 and took the result to match (1–2).
tournamentSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
regression_watchMIA @ MIL
Max Meyer: 2.58 ERA vs 3.77 xERA
Max Meyer carries a 2.58 ERA against a 3.77 expected ERA (1.19 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .206 off him vs a .228 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 3 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
starter_formSF @ SEA
Bryan Woo: 5.87 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15.3 innings, 10 earned runs, 19 hits. That 5.87 ERA runs 1.64 over his 4.23 season number.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
regression_tomorrowMIA @ MIL
Robert Gasser: 5.25 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIA. A 5.25 ERA against a 3.82 expected ERA (1.43 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .250 vs .230 expected.
ballpark_shiftPIT @ CLE
Gavin Williams's ERA drops to 3.00 at Progressive Field
Gavin Williams carries a 3.00 ERA over 9 games (54 IP) at Progressive Field vs 4.55 across 59.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .224 off him here.
P 6 IP, 5 ER, 11 K
regression_watchTB @ BOS
Ian Seymour: 4.59 ERA vs 3.48 xERA
Ian Seymour carries a 4.59 ERA against a 3.48 expected ERA (1.11 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .216 off him vs a .216 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 3 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
heat_checkPIT @ CLE
Steven Kwan: .854 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 25 PA: a .854 OPS versus .614 for the season, 0.24 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
cooling_offCIN @ COL
Edwin Arroyo: .400 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tomoyuki Sugano
Edwin Arroyo's .400 OPS over the last 15 days (30 PA) trails his .549 season mark, down 0.149. Tonight he draws RHP Tomoyuki Sugano — his weaker side: a .492 OPS vs RHP across 74 AB.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
regression_tomorrowSF @ SEA
Robbie Ray: 3.38 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 3.38 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (1.24 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .237 expected.
running_gameMIA @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Joe Mack (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 36% caught-stealing rate (17 of 47) and Milwaukee Brewers run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 7 bases
regression_tomorrowTB @ BOS
Shane McClanahan: 2.83 ERA vs 3.99 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BOS. A 2.83 ERA against a 3.99 expected ERA (1.16 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .214 vs .242 expected.
running_gameWSH @ OAK
Washington Nationals like to run — Shea Langeliers (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Washington Nationals attempt 1.3 steals a game, but Shea Langeliers has cut down 16 of 47 runners (34%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Washington Nationals stole 0 bases
regression_tomorrowWSH @ OAK
Foster Griffin: 2.77 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs OAK. A 2.77 ERA against a 3.82 expected ERA (1.05 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .210 vs .238 expected.
park_weatherTEX @ ATL
92° at Truist Park — the ball will carry tonight
Tonight's reading at Truist Park — Partly Cloudy, 92°, wind 5 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 13 vs 9.5 (over lean)
ballpark_shiftCIN @ COL
At Coors Field, Tomoyuki Sugano pitches to a 4.14 ERA
Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field: 4.14 ERA over 37 innings (7G) — 5.32 on a 47.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .270 off him here.
P 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
ballpark_shiftMIN @ CHC
At Wrigley Field, Matthew Boyd pitches to a 5.04 ERA
Matthew Boyd at Wrigley Field: 5.04 ERA over 25 innings (5G) — 3.86 on a 21-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .258 off him here.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
regression_tomorrowTB @ BOS
Sonny Gray: 2.54 ERA vs 3.61 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 2.54 ERA against a 3.61 expected ERA (1.07 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .229 vs .242 expected.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ SEA
Bryan Woo
Streamer vs SF — 3.51 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 1.07 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ MIL
Shane Drohan
Streamer vs MIA — 3.36 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.2 WHIP.
first_inningSF @ SEA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
cooling_offCHW @ TOR
Andres Gimenez: .469 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
Andres Gimenez's .469 OPS over the last 15 days (23 PA) trails his .640 season mark, down 0.171. Tonight he draws RHP Davis Martin — his stronger side: a .669 OPS vs RHP across 216 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
running_gamePIT @ CLE
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Patrick Bailey (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Patrick Bailey owns a 34% caught-stealing rate (17 of 50) and Pittsburgh Pirates run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
first_inningMIA @ MIL
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
running_gameMIN @ CHC
Green light: Chicago Cubs run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 14%
Chicago Cubs steal 0.7 bags a game (69 on the season) and Victor Caratini has thrown out 8 of 56 runners (14%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Chicago Cubs stole 1 base
running_gameCHW @ TOR
Green light: Chicago White Sox run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 15%
Chicago White Sox steal 0.6 bags a game (62 on the season) and Alejandro Kirk has thrown out 6 of 40 runners (15%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Chicago White Sox stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsSTL @ ARI
Dustin May
Streamer vs ARI — 3.74 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.26 WHIP.
ballparkENG @ FRA
France vs England: warm at Hard Rock Stadium
93°F at kickoff — warm enough to weigh on legs across 90+ minutes. Conditions at Hard Rock Stadium: 93°F, 11 mph wind, 4% rain.
first_inningLAD @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York Yankees have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
first_inningNYM @ PHI
PHI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Philadelphia Phillies have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
France ML -120
WC · 6-4
L
Under 3.5 -135
WC · 6-4
W
Pirates ML +110
MLB · 7-1
L
Twins ML +122
MLB · 2-6
L
Reds ML -120
MLB · 3-10
W
Pirates ML -104
MLB · 7-1
L
White Sox ML -108
MLB · 0-1
L
Padres ML -110
MLB · 1-6
W
Phillies ML -168
MLB · 1-6
L
Cardinals ML -102
MLB · 3-5
W
Rangers ML -104
MLB · 7-6
W
Brewers ML -142
MLB · 6-8
W
Orioles ML -108
MLB · 4-2
W
Mariners ML -158
MLB · 3-4
W
Tigers -1.5 -118
MLB · 7-0
L
Nationals ML -112
MLB · 1-15
L
Rays ML -106
MLB · 6-7

Props

L
Andrew Benintendi · over
White Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
W
Bryson Stott · over
Mets @ Phillies · Actual 3
L
Chase DeLauter · over
Pirates @ Guardians · Actual 1
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Reds @ Rockies · Actual 3
W
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Guardians · Actual 4
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Athletics · Actual 0
W
JJ Wetherholt · over
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2
L
Jordan Pickford · over
England @ France · Actual 0
W
Josh Jung · over
Rangers @ Braves · Actual 2
W
Kylian Mbappé · over
England @ France · Actual 2
L
Manny Machado · over
Padres @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Matt Olson · over
Rangers @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Mickey Moniak · over
Reds @ Rockies · Actual 2
L
Otto Lopez · over
Marlins @ Brewers · Actual 1
L
Pete Alonso · over
Orioles @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Twins @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Randy Arozarena · under
Giants @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Riley Greene · over
Tigers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Ryan Jeffers · over
Twins @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Trea Turner · over
Mets @ Phillies · Actual 6
W
Tyler Soderstrom · over
Nationals @ Athletics · Actual 2
W
Vinnie Pasquantino · over
Padres @ Royals · Actual 2
L
Willson Contreras · over
Rays @ Red Sox · Actual 0
W
Wilyer Abreu · over
Rays @ Red Sox · Actual 8
W
Yordan Alvarez · over
Orioles @ Astros · Actual 2