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2026-07-20

The stored Gary board for Mon, Jul 20. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

15
MLB6:40 PM

Twins @ Guardians

The division battle heats up tonight at Progressive Field as the Minnesota Twins roll into Cleveland to face the Guardians in a high-stakes American League Central opener. With both teams fighting to close the gap in the division, this matchup features a massive contrast in starting pitching stability and offensive health. The pitching matchup is where the value on the Twins really stands out. Joe Ryan has been highly effective for Minnesota, carrying a 2.85 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 110.1 innings. On the other side, Tanner Bibee is sitting on a 3-9 record and a 3.90 ERA, but his underlying metrics show he has been living on borrowed time with a 4.67 xERA. Bibee has a massive weakness against left-handed hitters, allowing 14 home runs and a .715 OPS. The Twins are perfectly set up to exploit this tonight, putting six left-handed or switch-hitting bats—including Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, Brooks Lee, and Alan Roden—in their starting lineup. To make matters worse for Bibee, the Twins officially welcome back superstar Byron Buxton, who brings his .904 OPS and 25 home runs back to the lineup, giving Minnesota a massive boost of power. While Cleveland’s bullpen is resting and ready, their offense is simply too depleted to keep pace tonight. The Guardians are still without their anchor, José Ramírez, and they have struggled mightily in his absence, averaging just 3.9 runs per game on the season. Replacing Ramírez with Daniel Schneemann, who has hit just .161 since June, leaves this lineup without its teeth. Meanwhile, Minnesota is scoring a robust 4.8 runs per game. Although Joe Ryan has had a few more struggles in night starts, he has the elite control and swing-and-miss stuff to handle a Cleveland lineup that lacks any real thump right now. At a very reasonable -132 on the moneyline, we are getting the vastly superior starting pitcher, the deeper lineup, and the return of a game-changing superstar. Lay the price with Minnesota.

Twins ML-132
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78%
MLB7:00 PM

Dodgers @ Phillies

We've got a hot midsummer night in Philadelphia as the Phillies host the Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park, where a 7-mph wind blowing out to left field and 82-degree temperatures set the stage for a classic offensive environment. The starting pitching matchup is a classic clash of styles, but the environment tonight heavily favors the Phillies' Cristopher Sanchez over the Dodgers' Emmet Sheehan. Sanchez is an elite ground-ball artist with a 1.62 GO/AO ratio, which is exactly how you survive in a launching pad like Citizens Bank Park when the wind is blowing out. On the flip side, Sheehan is a fly-ball pitcher with a 0.63 GO/AO ratio who has already surrendered 15 home runs in 82.1 innings. Facing Kyle Schwarber, who carries a 1.041 Home OPS, and Bryce Harper with his .902 Home OPS, with the wind carrying toward the left-field seats is a nightmare scenario for Sheehan, especially considering he allows a bloated .791 OPS to left-handed hitters. Beyond the starting pitching, the roster situation and bullpen depth swing the pendulum completely in Philadelphia's direction. The Dodgers are severely short-handed after a Sunday doubleheader, leaving three massive bats out of the lineup with Will Smith sidelined by a neck injury, while Max Muncy and Kyle Tucker sit out for rest. This heavily depleted Dodgers order will have a tough time finding explosive offense against Sanchez's ground-ball approach. If the game is close late, the Phillies hold a distinct high-leverage bullpen advantage. The Dodgers are working with a patchwork relief unit after utilizing seven pitchers yesterday, while the Phillies can turn to their elite closer Jhoan Duran, who carries a stellar 1.34 ERA and remains fresh.

Phillies ML-142
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78%
MLB7:05 PM

Pirates @ Yankees

Summer heat settles over the Bronx as the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees prepare to clash in a highly anticipated series opener at Yankee Stadium. From a pure betting standpoint, the value tonight lies entirely with the visiting Pirates at near-even money. Braxton Ashcraft takes the hill for Pittsburgh boasting a strong 9-3 record, a 3.49 ERA, and a stellar 1.11 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even more impressive, with a 3.31 xERA indicating he is pitching at an elite level. On the other side, Yankees starter Ryan Weathers has been highly vulnerable in night games, pitching to a dismal 5.29 ERA under the lights. Weathers also features a 4.43 xERA that suggests his 4.15 actual ERA has been aided by plenty of luck, making him a prime candidate for regression in tonight's warm, high-offense environment. The offensive matchups further tilt this game in Pittsburgh's favor. Weathers has struggled with a reverse platoon split, yielding a .783 OPS to left-handed hitters, but he is in for a particularly brutal time against the Pirates' right-handed bats who absolutely demolish southpaws. Esmerlyn Valdez is the ultimate matchup nightmare here, carrying a staggering .371 batting average and a 1.507 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Combined with Bryan Reynolds' .306 average and robust .928 OPS against lefties, the heart of the Pittsburgh order is primed to exploit Weathers' slider-heavy mix. Meanwhile, Ashcraft's high-velocity arsenal should stifle a Yankees lineup that has Paul Goldschmidt batting third despite his severe struggles against right-handers, where he is hitting just .201 with a weak .612 OPS on the year. To make matters worse for the home team, New York's bullpen is in a state of absolute exhaustion following a grueling Sunday doubleheader. Yankees closer David Bednar is likely unavailable after throwing 32 pitches yesterday, while key multi-inning relievers Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough are similarly taxed after tossing 2.1 and 2.2 innings respectively. With Yankee Stadium's hitter-friendly dimensions and a 9-11 mph wind blowing out, any early exit from Weathers will force New York to rely on heavily fatigued arms. The rolling Pirates offense, which has been highly productive in July, has all the leverage here. At -104, backing the Pirates to take the series opener on the moneyline is the sharpest ticket on the board.

Pirates ML-104
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82%
MLB7:07 PM

Rays @ Blue Jays

Under the closed retractable roof of the Rogers Centre, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays tonight in a high-stakes American League East division battle. All eyes are on the mound as Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease prepares to duel with Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez in the series opener. The betting line has Toronto as a -164 favorite, and in my thirty years of doing this, I’ve learned that when a starting pitching mismatch is this severe, you don’t overthink it; you lay the price. Dylan Cease is in absolute peak form, having allowed just one hit while racking up 20 strikeouts over his last 15.0 innings. His sparkling 2.56 ERA is fully validated by a dominant 2.87 xERA and a staggering 13.5 K/9, which keeps the ball out of play and takes pressure off the defense. Contrast that with Nick Martinez, whose shiny 2.65 ERA is a complete illusion. Martinez’s xERA stands at a bloated 4.71, indicating massive regression is on the horizon. He relies heavily on a sinker that opponents have absolutely crushed to the tune of a 0.431 xwOBA this season, playing right into the hands of Toronto's primary hitters. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (0.395 xwOBA vs. Sinker), Ernie Clement (0.375 BA vs. Sinker), and Kazuma Okamoto (0.412 xwOBA vs. Sinker) are poised to exploit this pitch. Beyond the starters, the relief and roster situations paint a heavily one-sided picture. Toronto's key back-end bullpen arms, Louis Varland (1.08 ERA) and Tyler Rogers (1.61 ERA), are completely rested after not pitching yesterday, while Tampa's middle relief enters this series fatigued after facing 49 batters over the last three games. Additionally, the Rays are on a five-game slide and struggle away from home with a mediocre 21-27 road record. Injuries to catalysts like Gavin Lux and Jake Fraley have stripped the Rays of offensive depth, leaving a lineup with four replacement-level players who must face Cease’s 97.7 mph heat and a slider holding a 41.1% whiff rate. Under a closed roof that negates any wind, look for the Blue Jays to handle business. We are laying the -164 on Toronto to take care of business at home.

Blue Jays ML-164
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85%
MLB7:10 PM

Orioles @ Red Sox

The historic green monster of Fenway Park is set for a high-stakes divisional battle tonight as the red-hot Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles under clear skies and a warm 82-degree breeze. Boston hands the ball to left-hander Payton Tolle (5-6, 3.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), while Baltimore counters with right-hander Shane Baz (4-9, 4.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). Tolle has been highly effective, and his extreme fly-ball profile (0.51 GO/AO) is supported by a steady defense with a .987 fielding percentage and only 45 errors. Baz, on the other hand, has struggled with base runners and carries a higher 1.39 WHIP and a 0.77 GO/AO, while playing in front of a defense that has committed 63 errors with a .982 fielding percentage. The critical difference-maker tonight is Baltimore's sudden catching catastrophe. The Orioles placed star backstop Adley Rutschman (1.8 WAR) on the 10-day injured list today with left wrist inflammation, and backup Samuel Basallo (1.5 WAR) is out with a shoulder injury, forcing emergency option Sam Huff (-0.1 WAR) behind the plate, while Boston counters with a healthy Connor Wong (1.1 WAR). This creates a massive hole in an Orioles lineup that has struggled to a .299 xwOBA over their last three games, compared to a scorching .410 xwOBA for the Red Sox. Furthermore, Tolle dominates right-handed hitters, limiting them to a .201 average, which perfectly neutralizes Baltimore's righty-heavy lineup. Conversely, Baz allows a bloated .793 OPS to left-handed batters, and Boston’s lineup features four left-handed or switch-hitting bats (Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Tsung-Che Cheng) ready to exploit Baz's primary platoon weakness under a 7 mph wind blowing out to right field. In the late innings, the disparity between these clubs widens. The Red Sox have their premier high-leverage arms in closer Aroldis Chapman (2.05 ERA, 21 SV) and Garrett Whitlock (2.06 ERA) fully rested and ready to close the door. Baltimore's bullpen, meanwhile, is highly fatigued and missing key pieces on the 60-day injured list, with Rico Garcia (2.72 ERA) likely unavailable after pitching back-to-back days. This leaves the Orioles' relief corps in a tough spot while throwing to an emergency catcher. Although the Red Sox look to improve their 21-27 home record compared to the Orioles' 21-26 away record, Boston's 13-game winning streak (10-0 in their last 10) is backed by a massive tactical edge tonight over a 7-game-winning Orioles team (7-3 in their last 10). Lock in the Red Sox on the moneyline at a very fair price.

Red Sox ML-154
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85%
MLB7:15 PM

Padres @ Braves

A hot, humid July evening sets the stage at Truist Park as the Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres in a high-stakes National League matchup. This game swings heavily on the stark contrast in starting pitcher environments. Bryce Elder is a different pitcher on his home mound, carrying a strong 3.34 ERA over 62.0 innings at Truist Park, compared to his struggles on the road. On the other side, JP Sears has fought major uphill battles in night games, posting a 6.75 ERA over 14.2 night innings. With temperatures reaching a sticky 89 degrees at first pitch, the ball is going to carry, putting both of these fly-ball prone starters under immense pressure. The Braves' offense has the perfect tactical weapon tonight to exploit Sears' pitching profile. Sears relies heavily on his changeup, but it has been highly vulnerable this season, allowing a .478 xwOBA. Michael Harris II has absolute mastery over changeups, carrying a .383 batting average and a .400 xwOBA against them. Additionally, both starters tend to give up fly balls, with Sears holding a low 0.78 ground-out-to-air-out ratio and Elder at 0.90. This makes outfield defense paramount. The Braves have exceptional range in the outfield with Harris and Eli White, while the Padres are starting defensive liability Gavin Sheets in left field, leaving them exposed in these hitter-friendly conditions. While much has been made of the Padres sweeping the June series and carrying head-to-head momentum, the current market has over-adjusted, leaving the division-leading, 57-41 Braves at a very playable -130 price on their home field. San Diego’s offense is also dealing with the fresh loss of Miguel Andujar, who was placed on the 10-day injured list today with a fractured wrist. Although the Braves' bullpen is fatigued and missing some key arms, Elder’s ability to neutralize left-handed hitters (.212 average allowed this season) gives him the clear advantage to pitch deep and protect his bullpen. We are laying the cheap juice on the home favorite.

Braves ML-130
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72%
MLB7:40 PM

Mets @ Brewers

We are live under the closed roof of American Family Field, where former Milwaukee favorite Freddy Peralta returns to the mound in a different uniform to face a Brewers team riding high on a three-game sweep. The market has reacted aggressively here, pricing the red-hot Brewers as heavy favorites and putting a premium on their rookie sensation, Jacob Misiorowski. But as a sharp bettor, you learn to look past the surface numbers and find where the public has pushed the line too far. That is exactly what we have tonight, and taking the Mets with the run line cushion is the smart play. While Misiorowski's 1.62 ERA and 10-4 record look intimidating, the advanced metrics suggest a narrower pitching gap than the actual ERAs indicate. Peralta's 4.66 ERA is inflated relative to his 3.82 xERA, pointing to a stretch of bad luck and poor sequencing. On the other side, Misiorowski's actual ERA outruns his 2.07 xERA. Furthermore, this is a prime revenge spot for Peralta, who is making his first start in Milwaukee since being traded in January. The emotional charge of facing his former teammates provides the exact spark needed for a highly motivated veteran to keep this game tight. The real edge for New York comes in the later innings. The Mets boast the most rested bullpen in the majors with a fatigue score of 31, meaning high-leverage arms like Luke Weaver (2.02 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) and Devin Williams are fully available. Conversely, the Brewers' relief corps is highly vulnerable with closer Trevor Megill likely sidelined after working consecutive games on July 18 and 19. Milwaukee also faces a fresh defensive loss with outfielder Sal Frelick placed on the IL just two days ago due to a shoulder strain. Combined with the scratch of Marcus Semien, who was 0-for-9 with five strikeouts since returning from his own IL stint, the Mets are structured perfectly to grind out a close, competitive game.

Mets +1.5-108
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72%
MLB7:40 PM

Giants @ Royals

It is a sweltering July evening in Kansas City as the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals open an interleague series at Kauffman Stadium under a clear, 96-degree sky with a 7 mph wind blowing out to center field. Tonight's opener offers a massive opportunity to grab the Giants at a valuable plus-money price of +102. The starting pitching matchup is heavily mispriced by the market's reliance on surface-level ERAs. San Francisco's Trevor McDonald has a 5.02 ERA, but his stellar 3.91 xERA indicates he has been the victim of severe sequencing and defensive misfortune. Meanwhile, Kansas City's Michael Wacha has a 3.77 ERA that is actively outrunning his 4.16 xERA. This gap creates immediate value on the road underdog. The extreme heat and outfield-directed wind create a high-carry environment that heavily penalizes fly-ball pitchers. Wacha is a fly-ball lean with a 0.79 GO/AO ratio and a 6.3% barrel rate, making his mistakes highly susceptible to leaving the park. Conversely, McDonald is an elite ground-ball pitcher with a 1.59 GO/AO ratio and a minuscule 3.9% barrel rate. His ability to keep the ball on the ground insulates him from the weather. While McDonald has a platoon weakness against left-handed hitters (.867 OPS allowed) and must navigate six lefties/switch-hitters, his ground-ball profile minimizes big-inning damage. Offensively, the Giants match up beautifully against Wacha's 27% four-seam fastball usage, led by Luis Arraez hitting .374 against four-seamers and Bryce Eldridge boasting a .465 xwOBA. The late innings provide a decisive advantage for San Francisco. The Royals' bullpen is extremely thin, with Lucas Erceg likely unavailable after throwing 50 pitches over the last 48 hours. This leaves Kansas City to rely on a heavily fatigued unit with a 4.99 season ERA, potentially turning to Alex Lange and his 6.00 ERA in high-leverage spots. San Francisco counters with a much fresher bullpen led by a rested Jason Foley. With Casey Schmitt (.278 AVG, 19 HR) continuing to provide elite production at third base, the Giants hold the bullpen, starting pitching regression, and environmental advantages tonight. Back the Giants on the moneyline at +102.

Giants ML+102
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75%
MLB8:05 PM

White Sox @ Rangers

We’ve got a high-stakes battle brewing deep in the heart of Texas tonight as the division-leading Chicago White Sox roll into Arlington to clash with the Texas Rangers under the closed roof of Globe Life Field. The betting public is heavily backing the Rangers behind their ace Jacob deGrom, who has been sensational with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, but there is a massive storm brewing in the late innings that the market is completely overlooking. While deGrom is formidable, especially at home with a 2.51 ERA, the price on this game has inflated too much, creating a spectacular opportunity to back the red-hot underdog White Sox on the moneyline at a premium +142 price. The real story of tonight's game is going to unfold from the sixth inning onward, and that is where the White Sox hold a monumental advantage. The Rangers’ bullpen is absolutely battered and exhausted after being forced to cover a staggering 8.2 innings yesterday, and they are already missing key late-inning relievers Jalen Beeks and Chris Martin on the injured list. On the flip side, Chicago's relief corps is fully rested after throwing a meager 2.1 innings yesterday, and they are bolstered by the high-impact return of Jordan Hicks, who is firing bullets at a peak velocity of 101.7 mph during a run of 9 consecutive scoreless innings. When you factor in that the Rangers' lineup is missing its absolute centerpiece in superstar shortstop Corey Seager due to a back injury, Texas lacks the depth to sustain offense across all nine innings. Chicago enters this matchup in spectacular form, posting a 6-4 record in their last 10 games with a dominant +20 run differential, averaging 4.8 runs scored per game while allowing only 2.8 runs per game. Meanwhile, Texas is 5-5 over their last 10 games with a dreadful -26 run differential, coughing up 7.4 runs per game. White Sox starter Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.15 ERA) does not need to throw a masterpiece tonight; he just needs to keep a short-handed Texas lineup in check and hand the ball off to a rested, high-leverage bullpen. With Chicago's bats clicking and their bullpen holding a severe situational edge, backing the White Sox at +142 is the sharpest bet on the board tonight.

White Sox ML+142
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72%
MLB8:05 PM

Tigers @ Cubs

Welcome to a sweltering evening at Wrigley Field, where the friendly confines are looking more like a pitcher’s nightmare with temperatures in the mid-80s and a stiff 16 mph wind blowing directly out to left-center. This kind of hitting environment is a powder keg for a pair of starting pitchers who both lean heavily into fly-ball profiles, carrying identical 0.60 GO/AO ratios into tonight’s matchup. But while both arms are prone to giving up fly balls, only one of them has to deal with a devastating platoon mismatch and a long layoff. Jameson Taillon is making his first start since June 7 after a six-week hamstring injury stint, and he is walking straight into a buzzsaw. He has been crushed by left-handed hitters this season to the tune of a .930 OPS and 12 home runs allowed, and Detroit’s lineup features six lefties—including dangerous bats like Riley Greene and Kevin McGonigle—specifically loaded at the top to exploit him. Combined with Taillon’s alarming 14.3% barrel rate, those deep drives are going to find the seats in a hurry tonight. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty gives the Tigers a massive advantage on the mound. Flaherty has been highly effective with a 4.48 ERA that is supported by a solid 4.34 xERA and a potent 10.7 K/9. He enters tonight in excellent form, having surrendered two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts, and has historically dominated the Cubs’ active core, holding Seiya Suzuki hitless with 6 strikeouts in 8 career at-bats. While Chicago has a great defense to track down deep fly balls, Flaherty's ability to miss bats minimizes the contact quality and keeps the wind from becoming a deciding factor against him. The disparity only widens in the late innings. Taillon is almost certainly on a limited pitch count in his return, forcing the Cubs to lean on a heavily depleted bullpen. With Phil Maton placed on the IL today and Drew Pomeranz DFA'd, Chicago's relief unit is highly exposed, carrying a bloated 5.20 xERA over the last two weeks. Detroit, on the other side, can hand a lead over to a rested and reliable back-end duo of Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen. At nearly even money on the moneyline, the value is entirely on Detroit to take the opener.

Tigers ML-102
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72%
MLB8:10 PM

Marlins @ Astros

Under the lights of Daikin Park, the Houston Astros host the Miami Marlins tonight in a series opener where bullpen depth and critical offensive platoon advantages will dictate the pace. My read tonight is to back the Astros on the moneyline at -126. While both clubs enter tonight on multi-game skids, the Astros have a massive advantage when it comes to matchup specifics. Miami's starter, Janson Junk, has struggled with a severe platoon split this season, allowing a .315 AVG and .856 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to a stellar .183 AVG and .557 OPS against righties. This sets up beautifully for Houston's premier threat, Yordan Alvarez, who boasts a massive 1.131 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .461 xwOBA against the 4-seam fastballs that Junk frequently relies on. With shortstop Jeremy Pena (.295 AVG) returning to the starting lineup tonight to stabilize the infield and provide consistent batting, the top of the Astros' order has the perfect environment to jump ahead early. Furthermore, the late-game situation heavily favors Houston. The Marlins are playing without their MVP-caliber infielder Otto Lopez (.335 AVG, .873 OPS, 4.9 WAR), who is out today with right finger inflammation. This leaves their lineup and defense structurally compromised. More critically, the Marlins' bullpen is down five key relievers, forcing their manager to rely on heavily taxed arms, including their closer, who holds a 7.42 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP and blew a walk-off lead yesterday on 19 pitches. On the flip side, Houston has an elite and fully rested closer who carries a 1.10 ERA, 10 saves, and a 0.86 WHIP waiting in the wings, plus the newly activated Bennett Sousa. The starting pitching matchup does feature some uncertainty with Ronel Blanco making his season debut after 13 months recovering from Tommy John surgery. Blanco's workload will likely be restricted, but Houston's rested and reinforced bullpen is perfectly positioned to pick up the slack. Miami has historically struggled on the road (21-28) and is currently in a six-game freefall. With the Marlins' bullpen depleted and their primary offensive catalyst sidelined, backing the Astros' superior high-leverage relief and favorable hitting matchups at -126 is the sharpest bet on the board tonight.

Astros ML-126
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80%
MLB8:40 PM

Nationals @ Rockies

The thin air of Mile High is about to get a whole lot hotter as the Nationals and Rockies square off at Coors Field on a scorching summer night in Denver. With a heat advisory pushing temperatures up to 101°F, we are in for a high-altitude slugfest where every pitch counts. My money tonight is riding on the Nationals moneyline at -126. This matchup comes down to how these offenses handle the starting pitchers and how those pitchers' profiles fit this extreme environment. The Nationals are an outstanding road team this season, carrying a 30-19 road record that stands out compared to Colorado’s subpar 23-27 home record. Washington enters this game absolutely blisteringly hot at the plate, posting a rolling L3 mark of a .440 xwOBA, 45.5% Hard-Hit rate, and an 11.7% Barrel rate. They face Colorado’s left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has been completely dismantled by right-handed hitters all year, allowing a .318 AVG, a .947 OPS, and 16 home runs in 283 at-bats. With right-handed and switch-hitting threats like Curtis Mead, Andres Chaparro, Dylan Crews, Jacob Young, and Harry Ford occupying five of the top seven spots, Washington is perfectly aligned to exploit Freeland's primary weakness in this scorching climate. On the other side, while Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez has his own challenges—specifically a recent bout of wildness with 10 walks in his last 10.1 innings—he possesses the ultimate survival tool for Coors Field: an elite 2.07 GO/AO ground-ball ratio and a minuscule 5.2% barrel rate allowed. By keeping the ball on the dirt and limiting barreled contact, Alvarez can effectively neutralize the thin air and extreme heat that can easily turn routine fly outs into home runs. This is a massive structural advantage over Freeland, who is a fly-ball pitcher with a mediocre 1.00 GO/AO ratio and a dangerous 11.0% barrel rate allowed. Though the Nationals' bullpen is highly vulnerable with 28 blown saves and missing long-man Foster Griffin after a heavy 7.0-inning performance yesterday, Washington's offense should generate more than enough early run support against Freeland. The Rockies’ offense is solid at Coors, with Cole Carrigg sporting a .373 AVG and 1.093 OPS at home and Hunter Goodman coming off a three-home-run game, but their team L3 metrics (.373 xwOBA, 41.5% Hard-Hit, 8.5% Barrel) simply don't match the Nationals' red-hot contact quality. Rather than risk the volatility of a standard -1.5 run line in a high-scoring Coors environment, we're taking the Nationals moneyline at -126 to get the outright win.

Nationals ML-126
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72%
MLB9:40 PM

Athletics @ Diamondbacks

We are live from the desert tonight under the closed roof of Chase Field, where the struggling Oakland Athletics look to break out of their slump in a series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The public is going to look at Oakland's 1-9 record over their last 10 games and Arizona's steady 7-3 run and think this is an easy home victory, but the real betting value tonight lies squarely with the road underdogs. My read tonight starts with a massive starting pitching discrepancy that the surface numbers completely mask. Athletics lefty Jeffrey Springs carries a bloated 6.08 ERA, but his underlying metrics show he has been incredibly unlucky, holding a much stronger 4.61 expected ERA and a 0.33 xwOBA that is over thirty points lower than his actual 0.363 opponent wOBA. On the other side, Diamondbacks rookie southpaw Mitch Bratt has a 6.00 ERA over his first two starts, but his expected ERA is a highly concerning 6.48, backed by a massive 50% hard-hit rate allowed. Despite playing without Brent Rooker and Nick Kurtz, Oakland's offense has actually averaged more runs per game this season than Arizona's (4.5 to 4.4) with a superior .246 average and .727 OPS compared to Arizona's .237 average and .694 OPS. Over their last three games, the Athletics have also hit for elite quality, posting a .406 xwOBA and a 45.7% hard-hit rate. Furthermore, Arizona’s roster has been absolutely decimated by fresh, high-impact injuries over the last 48 hours. The Diamondbacks are forced to play without their primary offensive engine, Corbin Carroll, who is out tonight with a hyperextended right elbow, as well as Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who was just placed on the 10-day IL with a right adductor strain. With these two heavy hitters sidelined, Arizona's lineup loses massive punch. To make matters worse, Arizona's 15th-ranked bullpen (3.95 ERA) is completely exhausted after using five relievers in each of their last three games, leaving them thin behind a rookie starter who struggles to keep the ball on the ground. While Oakland's bullpen has its own issues, ranking 30th with a 5.51 ERA, the massive starting pitching mismatch in expected performance and Arizona's depleted lineup make the Athletics at +120 the sharpest bet on the board.

Athletics ML+120
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72%
MLB9:40 PM

Reds @ Mariners

A hazy, mid-July Pacific Northwest evening sets the stage at T-Mobile Park as the Seattle Mariners host the Cincinnati Reds in a crucial interleague series opener. When you look at this matchup, the starting pitching gap is impossible to ignore. George Kirby (7-8, 3.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.88 xERA) gives Seattle an incredibly stable, high-command presence, especially under the lights where he carries a dominant 3.12 night ERA. On the other side, Andrew Abbott (5-5, 4.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) is screaming for regression with an ugly 4.77 xERA. Abbott relies on his 92.6 mph 4-seam fastball 46.6% of the time, and that is a major red flag tonight. The Mariners' lineup took a hit with J.P. Crawford scratched late this afternoon, forcing Colt Emerson (.195 AVG since June 24) into shortstop. But that blow is neutralized by the fresh return of Julio Rodriguez, who instantly upgrades the outfield. Rodriguez (.425 xwOBA against 4-seam fastballs) and Dominic Canzone (.522 xwOBA against 4-seamers) are a nightmare matchup for Abbott's fastball-heavy approach. Even if Crawford's absence leaves a temporary hole, Seattle's bats have the perfect stylistic edge against Abbott's primary offering to generate early run support. The real separation occurs when these starters hand the ball off. Seattle's bullpen is fully rested and highly efficient, anchored by closer Andrés Muñoz (17 SV, 3.96 ERA) who has thrown just 18 pitches over the last two days, alongside fresh setups José Ferrer (2.85 ERA) and Gabe Speier (2.05 ERA). Meanwhile, Cincinnati's relief corps is running on fumes, with closer Emilio Pagán (6.23 ERA) throwing 22 pitches yesterday and setup man Sam Moll (4.43 ERA) laboring through 37 pitches over the last two days. Playing at home where they are 29-21 and sitting just 0.5 games back in the division, the Mariners have the motivation, the stylistic edge on the mound, and the pristine bullpen needed to put this game away.

Mariners ML-146
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78%
MLB10:00 PM

Cardinals @ Angels

Under the clear, warm skies of Angel Stadium tonight, we have an intriguing interleague battle as the St. Louis Cardinals roll into Anaheim to take on the Los Angeles Angels. On paper, the public is tempted to back the Cardinals given their superior 51-47 record compared to the Angels' disappointing 39-61 mark, but the sharp money is looking directly at the mismatch on the mound and in the bullpens. Tonight, we have a starting pitching battle that highlights a massive statistical regression trap. Kyle Leahy takes the mound for the Cardinals with a seemingly respectable 7-4 record and 3.73 ERA over 89.1 innings. However, his underlying metrics are screaming danger: his xERA sits at a bloated 5.38, supported by an opponent wOBA of .334 and xwOBA of .353. Leahy's contact-heavy profile is extremely vulnerable, as evidenced by his 10.9% barrel rate allowed and a concerning 50.4% hard-hit rate allowed. In a warm game environment with the wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph, Leahy's 1.06 groundball-to-flyout ratio makes him a prime target for a major blowup. On the flip side, the Angels counter with José Soriano, who holds an 8-6 record, a 3.49 ERA, and 115 strikeouts over 111.0 innings. Soriano's underlying metrics are much more stable, carrying a 4.37 xERA and a much lower .294 opponent wOBA. More importantly, Soriano excels at neutralizing the long ball, allowing only a 7.8% barrel rate, a 36.4% hard-hit rate, and boasting a heavy 1.49 GO/AO groundball ratio that is perfect for suppressing fly balls in tonight's warm conditions. While the Cardinals' season-long bullpen numbers look decent, they suffered a massive, fresh blow yesterday with high-leverage reliever JoJo Romero landing on the injured list with appendicitis. Romero's sudden absence leaves a critical vacancy in the bridge to closer Riley O'Brien, especially with key setup arms like G. Soriano having pitched two of the last three days. In contrast, the Angels' bullpen enters this series in a much healthier and stable position. Closer Ryan Zeferjahn (3.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) and setup man Ben Bachman worked low pitch counts yesterday, leaving high-leverage reliever Kirby Yates fully rested and ready to protect a late lead. The market has priced this game near a pick'em because of the teams' overall records, but the mismatch between Soriano's dominant ground-ball profile and Leahy's impending regression in a hitter-friendly environment is too significant to ignore. Combine that with the Cardinals' fresh injury in their high-leverage bullpen, and the Angels at -112 present outstanding value to take the series opener.

Angels ML-112
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78%

Player props

23
MLB · Twins @ Guardians

Steven Kwan

The data suggests Steven Kwan is currently in a rare tier of offensive production, hitting .448 over his last 10 games with multiple hits in half of those contests. While Joe Ryan is a difficult pitcher to face, Kwan's elite contact profile makes him the most resilient hitter in the Cleveland lineup.

OVER 1.5 Hits+280
  • · .448 AVG (13-for-29) over his last 10 games
  • · 5 multi-hit games in his last 10 appearances
  • · Batting leadoff tonight for the Guardians
MLB · Dodgers @ Phillies

Kyle Schwarber

This is a high-upside environment for Kyle Schwarber, who thrives at Citizens Bank Park (1.041 OPS at home this season compared to .825 on the road). Tonight he faces Emmet Sheehan, a right-hander whose profile plays right into Schwarber's power.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+109
  • · Emmet Sheehan: 0.63 GO/AO (Fly-ball pitcher)
  • · Kyle Schwarber: 1.041 OPS and 20 HR in 173 AB at home
  • · Wind: 7 mph blowing Out to Left Field
MLB · Dodgers @ Phillies

Tommy Edman

The Dodgers' lineup shakeup provides a major volume boost for Tommy Edman, who moves into the No. 3 spot tonight. This is a targeted move to exploit the platoon matchup against southpaw Cristopher Sanchez.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135
  • · Tommy Edman: .364 AVG and 1.052 OPS vs. LHP
  • · Cristopher Sanchez: .293 AVG allowed vs. RHB
  • · Tommy Edman: Clearing 1.5 TB in 4 of last 5 games
MLB · Pirates @ Yankees

Ben Rice

Ben Rice is the hottest hitter in the Yankees lineup right now, coming off a 10-game stretch where he hit .417 with 4 home runs. Tonight's matchup is statistically perfect for him: Braxton Ashcraft has a significant platoon liability, surrendering a .734 OPS and nearly 80% of his home runs this season to left-handed hitters.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120
  • · Ben Rice L10: .417 AVG, 4 HR, 12 RBI
  • · Braxton Ashcraft vs LHB: .734 OPS allowed, 11 of 14 total HR allowed
  • · Break-even win probability: 45.45% (+120)
MLB · Pirates @ Yankees

Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez is currently the Pirates' most dangerous power threat, evidenced by his 6 home runs over the last 10 games. While he can be a high-strikeout hitter, his splits against left-handed pitching are elite, posting a .371 average and a massive 1.507 OPS.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+128
  • · Esmerlyn Valdez vs LHP: .371 AVG, 1.507 OPS, 6 HR
  • · Ryan Weathers vs RHB: 13 of 16 HR allowed this season
  • · Break-even win probability: 43.86% (+128)
MLB HR · Pirates @ Yankees

Ben Rice

This Gary Special is a direct play on the same factors favoring Rice's total bases. Rice’s 29 home runs this season demonstrate elite power, and he is facing a pitcher in Braxton Ashcraft who gives up a high volume of home runs to lefties (11).

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+285
  • · Ben Rice: 29 HR in 94 games (one every ~3.2 games)
  • · Braxton Ashcraft: 11 HR allowed to lefties in 238 ABs
  • · Break-even win probability: 25.97% (+285)
MLB · Orioles @ Red Sox

Willson Contreras

Contreras is the focal point of the hottest team in baseball, and his statistical profile at Fenway Park is elite. He enters tonight's game hitting .333 over his last 10 outings and has cleared this total bases line in 7 of those 10 games. The matchup against Shane Baz is favorable, as Baz has struggled with base runners all season (1.39 WHIP) and allows a high hard-hit rate. The environmental factors are the cherry on top: 82-degree weather, a hitter-friendly 1.05 park factor, and a wind blowing out to right field all favor a hitter of Contreras's power profile and recent form.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100
  • · .333 AVG and 4 HR in last 10 games
  • · 1.001 OPS at Fenway Park this season
  • · Shane Baz allows 1.39 WHIP and 41.4% Hard-Hit rate
MLB · Padres @ Braves

Austin Riley

Austin Riley is in an elite position tonight, batting cleanup for a Braves team playing in optimal hitting conditions. He faces JP Sears, a left-hander whose season metrics show a significant vulnerability against right-handed power. Sears allows a .290 average and .821 OPS to RHBs, and his fly-ball-heavy profile (0.78 GO/AO) combined with a high hard-hit rate (47.5%) is a dangerous mix against Riley.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+121
  • · JP Sears allows .290 AVG and .821 OPS to right-handed hitters this season
  • · Sears leans fly-ball (0.78 GO/AO) with a 47.5% hard-hit rate allowed
  • · Austin Riley recorded 3 HR in his last 10 games, including 2 yesterday
MLB · Padres @ Braves

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is ideally placed to produce as the Padres' leadoff hitter against Bryce Elder. Elder's season splits are significantly inverted, as he allows a .297 average and .797 OPS to right-handed hitters compared to just .212 vs lefties.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-180
  • · Bryce Elder allows .297 AVG and .797 OPS to right-handed hitters compared to .212 vs lefties
  • · Tatis has a career .333 AVG in limited plate appearances against Elder
  • · Tatis batting leadoff maximizes plate appearances and scoring opportunities for a hot Padres offense
MLB · Rays @ Blue Jays

Ernie Clement

This pick is built on a perfect alignment between Ernie Clement's hitting profile and Nick Martinez's pitch arsenal. Clement has been exceptional against the two primary pitches Martinez relies on, batting .353 against 4-seam fastballs and .375 against sinkers.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+112
  • · Break-even win probability: 47.2%
  • · Clement .353 AVG vs 4-Seam Fastballs / .375 AVG vs Sinkers
  • · Nick Martinez 4.71 xERA vs 2.65 actual ERA
MLB · Mets @ Brewers

Garrett Mitchell

While the Mets face a buzzsaw in Misiorowski, the Brewers' offense matches up perfectly against Freddy Peralta. Peralta has struggled significantly with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .263 average and a .795 OPS, including 13 of his 15 home runs surrendered.

OVER 0.5 Hits-150
  • · Freddy Peralta vs LHB: .263 Opponent AVG / .795 OPS allowed
  • · Garrett Mitchell: Hits in 4 of last 5 games (H L5: 0, 3, 2, 1, 1)
  • · Peralta: 1.44 WHIP with 13 HR allowed to lefties
MLB · Giants @ Royals

Jac Caglianone

This is a high-conviction matchup play centered on Giants starter Trevor McDonald's extreme platoon vulnerabilities. McDonald has been consistently vulnerable to left-handed hitting this season, surrendering all six of his home runs and a massive .867 OPS to lefties compared to a stingy .506 OPS against right-handers.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+105
  • · Trevor McDonald vs LHB: .296 AVG, .867 OPS, 6 HR allowed (142 AB)
  • · Game-time temperature: 96°F with wind 7 mph Out To CF
  • · Jac Caglianone has recorded 12 total bases in his last 5 games
MLB · White Sox @ Rangers

Wyatt Langford

Wyatt Langford is in the midst of his best stretch of the season, hitting .349 with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs over his last 10 games. Tonight he faces Erick Fedde, whose season-long success masks a significant vulnerability to right-handed power.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125
  • · Erick Fedde .848 OPS allowed vs RHB (season)
  • · Wyatt Langford .349 AVG last 10 games (15-for-43)
  • · Erick Fedde 4.64 xERA vs 4.15 actual ERA
MLB · Tigers @ Cubs

Riley Greene

This is a target-rich environment for the Tigers' best hitter. Jameson Taillon is returning from the IL and facing a Detroit lineup that features heavy left-handed power, starting with Greene.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+100
  • · Taillon vs LHB: .930 OPS allowed, 12 HR in 127 AB (9.4% HR rate)
  • · Riley Greene vs RHP: .304 AVG, .886 OPS, 12 HR
  • · Game Total: 11.5 (needs >50% at +100)
MLB · Tigers @ Cubs

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong becomes a different player at the Confines. His home/road splits are extreme, with his OPS jumping nearly 150 points when playing at Wrigley (.977).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-120
  • · Home Splits: .311 AVG, .977 OPS at Wrigley Field vs .259 on road
  • · Jack Flaherty: 0.60 GO/AO (Fly-ball pitcher) and 47.3% hard-hit rate allowed
  • · Wind: 16-20 mph blowing OUT (needs >55% at -120)
MLB · Marlins @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

The statistical profile for Yordan Alvarez tonight is nearly perfect. Janson Junk has been a liability against left-handed hitters all season, surrendering a .315 batting average and a massive .856 OPS to the platoon.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+110
  • · Janson Junk allows .856 OPS and .315 AVG to left-handed hitters this season.
  • · Yordan Alvarez is batting .324 with 2 HR and 6 RBI over his last 10 games.
  • · Janson Junk has allowed 7 home runs in his last 26.2 innings pitched.
MLB · Nationals @ Rockies

Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman enters this matchup as a certified southpaw specialist, boasting a .948 OPS and .296 average against left-handed pitching this season. He is coming off a massive three-homer performance on July 19, signaling that his power is currently peaking. Tonight he faces Andrew Alvarez, a lefty who allows a 43% hard-hit rate and a .296 average to left-handed hitters, suggesting he can be vulnerable to hard contact when he misses his spots. Batting cleanup in the thin, 97-degree air at Coors Field, Goodman's profile is perfectly suited to clear this 1.5 total bases line with a single extra-base hit or a multi-hit performance.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-105
  • · Season vs LHP: .296 AVG / .948 OPS / 8 HR (108 AB)
  • · Recent Form: 3 HR in last 10 games (all in one game on July 19)
  • · Break-even Probability: 51.2% (-105)
MLB · Nationals @ Rockies

Curtis Mead

Curtis Mead is currently the hottest bat in the Nationals lineup, hitting .432 over his last 10 games and reaching this 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs threshold in four of his last five outings. Batting in the #2 spot provides him with elite volume and opportunity, especially against a struggling Kyle Freeland (7.36 ERA). Freeland's primary weakness this year has been right-handed hitters, who are batting .318 with 16 home runs against him. With the game total set at 12 and scorching temperatures in Denver, the environment is primed for Mead to continue his multi-hit trend or drive in runs for a high-scoring Washington offense.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI-107
  • · Last 10 Games: .432 AVG (16-for-37) with 3 HR and 9 RBI
  • · Pitcher Matchup: Kyle Freeland allows a .318 AVG and 16 HR to Right-Handed Batters (RHB)
  • · Break-even Probability: 51.7% (-107)
MLB · Athletics @ Diamondbacks

Nolan Arenado

Jeffrey Springs has been a target for right-handed power all season, surrendering 20 of his 26 home runs to right-handed hitters while allowing them to post an .883 OPS and a .274 batting average. Arenado is currently in his most productive power stretch of the year, having cleared 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games, including two home runs in that span. Springs' 9.8% barrel rate and 34.9% hard-hit rate align perfectly with Arenado's recent form, where he has recorded 13 total bases over his last 12 at-bats.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130
  • · 20 Home Runs allowed by Jeffrey Springs to right-handed batters in 2026
  • · .883 OPS for right-handed hitters vs Jeffrey Springs
  • · 4 of last 5 games Nolan Arenado has cleared 1.5 total bases
MLB · Athletics @ Diamondbacks

Shea Langeliers

Langeliers is a high-volume power threat whose production spikes significantly against left-handed pitching, where he carries a 1.042 OPS and a .336 batting average this season. He faces rookie southpaw Mitch Bratt, who has allowed a massive 50% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate over his first two starts. Langeliers has cleared 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games and bats third in the Athletics' order, ensuring the maximum volume of opportunities against a rookie starter and a Diamondbacks bullpen that is currently fatigued and struggling for stability.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+105
  • · 1.042 OPS for Shea Langeliers vs left-handed pitching in 2026
  • · 50% hard-hit rate allowed by Mitch Bratt
  • · 4 of last 5 games Shea Langeliers has cleared 1.5 total bases
MLB · Reds @ Mariners

Dominic Canzone

This pick exploits a double-reverse split. Andrew Abbott is significantly more vulnerable to lefties (.284 AVG) than righties (.237 AVG) this season. Dominic Canzone has been a southpaw specialist, posting a nearly 1.000 OPS in lefty-on-lefty matchups. Batting 3rd, Canzone will benefit from Abbott's fly-ball tendency (0.76 GO/AO) in the warm 83-degree Seattle air, where Canzone's power profile (15 HR) is perfectly suited to exploit elevated fastballs.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+150
  • · Canzone .292 AVG and .993 OPS against LHP this season
  • · Abbott allows a .284 AVG to left-handed hitters (higher than vs RHB)
  • · Canzone batting 3rd in the lineup ensures maximum RBI/AB volume
MLB · Reds @ Mariners

Elly De La Cruz

Elly is the hottest hitter in this game, hitting .317 with significant extra-base production recently. Kirby allows a high hard-hit rate (42.5%), which plays into Elly's hands; his elite speed turns routine singles into doubles, and his recent power surge makes him a threat to clear this line with one swing. Batting leadoff ensures he gets the maximum volume of plate appearances to capitalize on Kirby's strike-throwing nature.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+116
  • · .317 AVG with 3 HR over last 10 games
  • · 4 multi-hit games in his last 6 contests
  • · Kirby allows a 42.5% hard-hit rate
MLB · Cardinals @ Angels

Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel is perfectly positioned to exploit the Cardinals' weakest link tonight. Starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has been pitching well above his actual performance level, as evidenced by the massive gap between his 3.73 ERA and 5.38 xERA.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-113
  • · Schanuel: .368 AVG (14-for-38) in last 10 games
  • · Leahy: .309 AVG and .868 OPS allowed vs. LHB this season
  • · Leahy: 5.38 xERA vs. 3.73 actual ERA (massive regression candidate)

Hub research

110

Graded results

38

Games

  • W

    Red Sox ML -154

    MLB · 5-6

  • W

    Braves ML -130

    MLB · 2-3

  • L

    Blue Jays ML -164

    MLB · 7-1

  • L

    Pirates ML -104

    MLB · 5-8

  • W

    Phillies ML -142

    MLB · 7-10

  • L

    Giants ML +102

    MLB · 3-4

  • L

    Mets +1.5 -108

    MLB · 3-8

  • W

    Astros ML -126

    MLB · 5-8

  • W

    Nationals ML -126

    MLB · 7-3

  • W

    White Sox ML +142

    MLB · 10-3

  • W

    Tigers ML -102

    MLB · 8-6

  • W

    Mariners ML -146

    MLB · 0-8

  • W

    Angels ML -112

    MLB · 2-3

  • W

    Athletics ML +120

    MLB · 5-2

  • L

    Twins ML -132

    MLB · 4-13

Props

  • L

    Austin Riley · over

    Padres @ Braves · Actual 0

  • L

    Ben Rice · over

    Pirates @ Yankees · Actual 1

  • L

    Ben Rice · over

    Pirates @ Yankees · Actual 0

  • W

    Curtis Mead · over

    Nationals @ Rockies · Actual 4

  • L

    Dominic Canzone · over

    Reds @ Mariners · Actual 1

  • L

    Elly De La Cruz · over

    Reds @ Mariners · Actual 0

  • W

    Ernie Clement · over

    Rays @ Blue Jays · Actual 2

  • W

    Esmerlyn Valdez · over

    Pirates @ Yankees · Actual 4

  • L

    Fernando Tatis Jr. · over

    Padres @ Braves · Actual 0

  • W

    Garrett Mitchell · over

    Mets @ Brewers · Actual 2

  • L

    Hunter Goodman · over

    Nationals @ Rockies · Actual 0

  • L

    Jac Caglianone · over

    Giants @ Royals · Actual 0

  • L

    Kyle Schwarber · over

    Dodgers @ Phillies · Actual 0

  • W

    Nolan Arenado · over

    Athletics @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2

  • W

    Nolan Schanuel · over

    Cardinals @ Angels · Actual 2

  • L

    Pete Crow-Armstrong · over

    Tigers @ Cubs · Actual 0

  • W

    Riley Greene · over

    Tigers @ Cubs · Actual 7

  • L

    Shea Langeliers · over

    Athletics @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1

  • L

    Steven Kwan · over

    Twins @ Guardians · Actual 0

  • L

    Tommy Edman · over

    Dodgers @ Phillies · Actual 1

  • W

    Willson Contreras · over

    Orioles @ Red Sox · Actual 4

  • L

    Wyatt Langford · over

    White Sox @ Rangers · Actual 1

  • W

    Yordan Alvarez · over

    Marlins @ Astros · Actual 7