Athletics at Diamondbacks
O/U 9.5 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5 · Chase Field
Athletics ML+120
CONF 72%
WCashedFinal 5-2
The read
We are live from the desert tonight under the closed roof of Chase Field, where the struggling Oakland Athletics look to break out of their slump in a series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The public is going to look at Oakland's 1-9 record over their last 10 games and Arizona's steady 7-3 run and think this is an easy home victory, but the real betting value tonight lies squarely with the road underdogs.
My read tonight starts with a massive starting pitching discrepancy that the surface numbers completely mask. Athletics lefty Jeffrey Springs carries a bloated 6.08 ERA, but his underlying metrics show he has been incredibly unlucky, holding a much stronger 4.61 expected ERA and a 0.33 xwOBA that is over thirty points lower than his actual 0.363 opponent wOBA. On the other side, Diamondbacks rookie southpaw Mitch Bratt has a 6.00 ERA over his first two starts, but his expected ERA is a highly concerning 6.48, backed by a massive 50% hard-hit rate allowed. Despite playing without Brent Rooker and Nick Kurtz, Oakland's offense has actually averaged more runs per game this season than Arizona's (4.5 to 4.4) with a superior .246 average and .727 OPS compared to Arizona's .237 average and .694 OPS. Over their last three games, the Athletics have also hit for elite quality, posting a .406 xwOBA and a 45.7% hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Arizona’s roster has been absolutely decimated by fresh, high-impact injuries over the last 48 hours. The Diamondbacks are forced to play without their primary offensive engine, Corbin Carroll, who is out tonight with a hyperextended right elbow, as well as Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who was just placed on the 10-day IL with a right adductor strain. With these two heavy hitters sidelined, Arizona's lineup loses massive punch. To make matters worse, Arizona's 15th-ranked bullpen (3.95 ERA) is completely exhausted after using five relievers in each of their last three games, leaving them thin behind a rookie starter who struggles to keep the ball on the ground. While Oakland's bullpen has its own issues, ranking 30th with a 5.51 ERA, the massive starting pitching mismatch in expected performance and Arizona's depleted lineup make the Athletics at +120 the sharpest bet on the board.
Injuries noted
Diamondbacks: [NEW] Michael Soroka (SP) — Lower Body (Left): Manager Torey Lovullo said Friday that Soroka (glute) is in line to return from the injured list sometime around early August, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. (Jul 17 — 3d ago) [NEW] Ryne Nelson (SP) — Elbow (Right): Nelson (elbow) will begin a throwing program Saturday or Sunday, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports. (Jul 18 — 2d ago) [NEW] Jordan Lawlar (LF) — Hamstring (Right): Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday that Lawlar (hamstring) has been cleared for all baseball activities other than full-speed running, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports. (Jul 18 — 2d ago) [NEW] Zac Gallen (SP) — Elbow (Right): Manager Torey Lovullo said Thursday that Gallen is awaiting a second opinion on his injured right elbow, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports. (Jul 16 — 3d ago) [NEW] Tommy Troy (LF) — Shoulder (Right): Manager Torey Lovullo said Friday that Troy (shoulder) is expected to remain out for roughly 3-to-4 weeks, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports. (Jul 17 — 3d ago) [NEW] Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Thigh (Right): Gurriel isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against St. Louis. (Jul 18 — 2d ago) [NEW] Corbin Carroll (RF) — Elbow (Right): Carroll (elbow) is not in the lineup for Monday's game against the Athletics, Jody Jackson of Bally Sports Arizona reports. (Jul 20 — 0d ago) Athletics: [NEW] Brent Rooker (DH) — Knee (Left): Rooker will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a cartilage tear in his left knee, Jason Burke of Roundtable.io reports. (Jul 17 — 3d ago) [NEW] Denzel Clarke (Center Fielder) — Hamstring (Left): Manager Mark Kotsay said Saturday that Clarke (hamstring) is nearing a rehab assignment, Jason Burke of Roundtable.io reports. (Jul 18 — 1d ago) [NEW] Luis Severino (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Severino's (shoulder) recent MRI showed signs of healing, but manager Mark Kotsay indicated Saturday that the right-hander is several weeks away from a potential return to the rotation, Jason Burke of Roundtable.io reports. (Jul 18 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Brooks Kriske (RP) — Shoulder (Right): Kriske (shoulder) began a throwing progression Thursday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 34d ago) [NEW] Zack Gelof (3B) — Knee (Right): Gelof will begin baseball activities once the stitches on his right knee are removed Tuesday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 2d ago) [NEW] Nick Kurtz (1B) — Thumb (Right): Kurtz (thumb) is currently participating only in range-of-motion and strengthening exercises, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 2d ago) [NEW] Justin Sterner (RP) — Knee (Right): Sterner earned his first save of the season in Wednesday's extra-inning win over the Cubs. He tossed a perfect inning while striking out one. (Jul 18 — 2d ago)
Props on this game
2Nolan ArenadoOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+130
WActual 2
Jeffrey Springs has been a target for right-handed power all season, surrendering 20 of his 26 home runs to right-handed hitters while allowing them to post an .883 OPS and a .274 batting average. Arenado is currently in his most productive power stretch of the year, having cleared 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games, including two home runs in that span. Springs' 9.8% barrel rate and 34.9% hard-hit rate align perfectly with Arenado's recent form, where he has recorded 13 total bases over his last 12 at-bats.
Shea LangeliersOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+105
LActual 1
Langeliers is a high-volume power threat whose production spikes significantly against left-handed pitching, where he carries a 1.042 OPS and a .336 batting average this season. He faces rookie southpaw Mitch Bratt, who has allowed a massive 50% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate over his first two starts. Langeliers has cleared 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games and bats third in the Athletics' order, ensuring the maximum volume of opportunities against a rookie starter and a Diamondbacks bullpen that is currently fatigued and struggling for stability.
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