Sports picks for Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Paul George is in a great spot to be active on the glass tonight, especially with the 76ers missing some key bodies in the rotation. With Kelly Oubre Jr out, there are a lot of rebounding opportunities up for grabs on the wing, and a veteran like George knows exactly how to position himself to take advantage. At 6'8", he naturally finds himself in the mix for boards, and a line of 4.5 feels very attainable for a player of his caliber. The Nets aren't exactly a powerhouse on the boards either, so George should have plenty of chances to grab long rebounds and start the break. He’s been consistently around this number all season, and with the extra minutes and responsibility tonight, he should clear it comfortably. I love seeing a superstar get a reachable number like this when the team needs him to step up. Expect him to be physical and clean up the glass for Philly.

Nikola Vucevic has been playing like an absolute force lately, and this 15.5 line feels way too low for a guy scoring over 20 points a night on average. The Hawks are one of the most generous teams in the league when it comes to giving up points in the paint, and they don't have the size right now to keep Vucevic from getting exactly what he wants. He’s the focal point of this Chicago offense, and his ability to score both at the rim and from the perimeter makes him a nightmare matchup for Atlanta's struggling interior defense. In a game that’s expected to be played at a very high pace, Vucevic is going to see plenty of shot attempts and second-chance opportunities. I expect him to cruise past this number well before the fourth quarter even starts. He’s simply too consistent and too skilled for the Hawks to contain tonight.

Myles Turner is going to be asked to do a lot more heavy lifting tonight with the Pacers’ roster looking like a hospital ward. With Tyrese Haliburton and Obi Toppin sidelined, the offensive touches have to go somewhere, and Turner is the most seasoned vet left on the floor. He’s facing a Milwaukee team that doesn't have Giannis to protect the rim, which should give Myles plenty of clean looks inside and out. Even with Brook Lopez lurking, Turner’s ability to step out and hit the three makes him a nightmare to guard in this specific matchup. I expect him to be aggressive from the jump as Indiana tries to keep pace. Twelve points is a very modest ask for a guy who should see a significant uptick in his usual shot volume.

Nikola Jokic is going to be the biggest guy on the floor by a mile tonight with Dereck Lively II out of the lineup for Dallas. Usually, the Mavericks have some legitimate size to throw at him, but without their primary anchor, they’re going to really struggle to keep the Joker off the glass. Denver is also missing Aaron Gordon, which means one of their other top rebounders isn't there to take boards away from Jokic. He’s already averaging a massive number on the season, and in a game where both teams are missing key interior players, he’s going to be the one cleaning everything up. I expect him to hover around the rim all night and cruise past this number. It's just a perfect storm of missing personnel that points directly to a huge night for the big man.

Mikal Bridges is stepping into a massive role tonight with both Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby on the sidelines. Usually, Bridges is a high-level supporting piece, but without those two, the Knicks simply don't have many other options to carry the scoring load. He is going to see a huge uptick in shots and play heavy minutes as the primary option on the perimeter. Minnesota is a tough defense, but volume is king in this league, and Bridges should easily see upwards of 20 field goal attempts tonight. He has already proven he can be a top-tier scorer when given the keys, and tonight he has no choice but to be aggressive. I expect him to look for his shot early and often, clearing this number comfortably as the focal point of the offense.

Jalen Williams is really stepping into a massive role right now for the Thunder with so many of their big men out of commission. He’s essentially become the 1B to Shai’s 1A, and he’s thriving with the extra touches and freedom to create his own shot. Without Chet Holmgren clogging the lane, the spacing is different, and Williams is using his size and speed to get wherever he wants on the floor. The Spurs' defense can be vulnerable when they aren't fully set, and Williams is one of the best transition scorers in the league. I see him being aggressive early and often in this one to keep the pressure on San Antonio's young core. It’s hard to imagine him not getting at least 20 points given the current state of the OKC roster.

Michael Porter Jr is stepping into a massive role tonight with Cam Thomas officially sidelined. When you lose a guy who accounts for nearly 25 points a night, those shot attempts have to go somewhere, and Porter Jr is the natural choice to take over the primary scoring duties. He’s already shown he can handle a heavy volume, and I expect him to look for his shot early and often in this matchup. Philadelphia's perimeter defense can be hit or miss, and Porter Jr has the size to shoot right over their smaller guards. Without Thomas out there to command the ball, we’re going to see a much more aggressive version of MPJ. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him clear 20 field goal attempts tonight as the undisputed focal point of the offense. He’s the hot hand for the Nets right now, and I’m banking on him to carry the scoring load.

Watching the Bulls this year, it’s clear that Vucevic is their only real reliable presence on the glass, and he’s been a double-double machine. This 8.5 line is a gift considering he's averaging double-digit boards on the season and rarely has an off-night when it comes to rebounding. The Hawks play at a lightning-fast tempo, which means there are going to be a lot of missed shots and plenty of rebounding chances for a savvy veteran who knows how to box out. Atlanta's frontcourt is currently banged up and missing key size, leaving them vulnerable to a physical center who can dominate the restricted area. Vucevic is great at tracking long rebounds off three-point misses too, which we'll see plenty of tonight from both sides. I’m very confident he’ll grab his tenth board before the final whistle blows.

Scottie Barnes is going to have the ball in his hands all night against the Heat. With RJ Barrett sitting this one out, the Raptors lose a major source of scoring and secondary playmaking, which puts a massive workload on Scottie's shoulders. He is naturally a brilliant passer who loves to find his teammates from the high post or while driving to the rim. Without Barrett, Barnes is the undisputed engine of this Toronto offense and will likely see his usage rate spike. Even though Miami plays a tough, disciplined defense, they'll have their hands full trying to account for Scottie's vision and size advantage. I expect him to facilitate early to get his shooters in a rhythm, making five assists a very reachable target. He’s the guy Toronto trusts to make every big decision tonight.

Pascal Siakam is stepping into a massive role tonight as the clear-cut number one option for an Indiana team missing its engine in Tyrese Haliburton. Without Giannis Antetokounmpo patrolling the paint for the Bucks, Siakam should find plenty of lanes to exploit and get to his favorite spots in the mid-range. He’s been forced into high-usage roles throughout his career and historically thrives when he’s the focal point of the offense. Milwaukee is still a tough squad, but they simply don’t have the individual wing defenders available to keep Pascal from getting to the rim all night. I’m looking for him to take at least 20 shots and really command the flow of the game. He’s the most talented player on the floor for the Pacers tonight, and he should play like it.

Stephon Castle is playing with a level of confidence we rarely see from rookies this early in the season. The Spurs have been handing him the keys more often lately, and he's responded by attacking the basket with total disregard for who's standing in his way. Tonight’s matchup is particularly interesting because Oklahoma City is missing their primary eraser at the rim, which opens up huge driving lanes for a downhill guard like Castle. He’s been consistently seeing double-digit shot attempts, and he’s aggressive enough to earn himself several trips to the charity stripe. In a game that should have plenty of possessions, Castle's volume alone should carry him past this scoring total. He's becoming a go-to guy in San Antonio, and this is another great spot for him to showcase that.

Marcus Smart is going to be asked to do a lot more than just play defense tonight. With the Lakers' backcourt looking extremely thin due to multiple injuries, Smart is naturally going to see his time with the ball in his hands skyrocket. He’s a veteran who knows how to read a defense, and he won’t have many other options but to facilitate the offense for large stretches of the game. We’ve seen him thrive in these secondary playmaker roles throughout his career, and four assists is a very modest ask for a guy playing starter minutes. I expect him to look for his teammates early to help settle the offense while the stars draw the defense's attention. This is a great spot for Smart to show off his passing and clear this number comfortably.

Bam Adebayo is in a prime position to dominate the glass tonight against a depleted Raptors frontcourt. Toronto is missing Jakob Poeltl, who is not only their best rebounder but the only player with the size and strength to really challenge Bam in the paint. Without their starting center, the Raptors are forced to play smaller, which gives Bam a massive physical advantage on every missed shot. He is an elite athlete who tracks the ball well and knows exactly how to use his body to secure position. Miami will be leaning on him to anchor the defense and start the fast break, meaning he'll be active on the boards from the jump. Given the lack of a true rim protector on the other side, Bam should have no problem clearing double digits. This looks like a big night for the Heat's cornerstone player.

Julius Randle definitely has this game circled on his calendar as he faces his former team for the first time since the big trade. He is a player who feeds off emotion, and you can bet he wants to put on a show against the Knicks in front of a national audience. It really helps his case that New York is missing OG Anunoby, who would have been the perfect defender to match Randle’s physicality and size. Without Anunoby, the Knicks' defense is much thinner on the wing and will struggle to keep Randle from bullying his way into the paint. Julius is already in a great rhythm with his new team, and given the personal stakes and the favorable matchup, he is going to be hunting his points all night. This is a classic situation where the motivation and the defensive gaps line up perfectly for a big performance.

Miles Bridges is going to have a field day against this Washington defense tonight. The Wizards have been giving up points like they’re going out of style, especially to athletic wings who can attack the basket with power. With Washington lacking a real anchor in the middle right now, Bridges should be able to bully his way into the paint and get high-percentage looks all night long. He’s been seeing a massive amount of volume lately, and in a game that’s expected to be a high-paced track meet, he’s a clear focal point for the scoring attack. I expect him to blow past this number because he's simply too physical for anyone the Wizards can throw at him. It’s a perfect matchup for his skill set given how much Washington struggles to stop transition scoring and easy buckets in the paint.

Donovan Mitchell is in a prime position to take over the scoring load tonight with the Cavaliers missing some key pieces in their rotation. With Evan Mobley and Max Strus sidelined, the offensive hierarchy in Cleveland becomes very simple: get the ball to Mitchell and let him work. He is the type of player who thrives when the pressure is on, and he'll likely see a massive uptick in shot attempts to compensate for the missing production. It helps that New Orleans is missing Herb Jones, who is easily their best perimeter defender and the one guy who could actually make Mitchell's life difficult. Without that defensive stopper in his way, Mitchell should be able to get to his spots at the rim and beyond the arc with relative ease. I expect him to be aggressive from the opening tip and hunt his shot all night long. This has all the makings of a vintage 30-plus point performance from the Cavs' superstar.

With Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun both sidelined, Jamal Murray has to step up as the primary floor general even more than usual. Those two guys usually handle a decent chunk of the secondary playmaking, so their absence leaves a huge void in how Denver moves the ball and initiates the offense. Murray is already the engine of this backcourt, and he’ll be looking to set up Jokic and the younger guys constantly throughout the night. I see him running a lot more pick-and-roll than we usually see, especially since the Mavericks' defense will be scrambling to cover the holes in their own rotation. He’s been passing the ball beautifully lately, and with more minutes and more responsibility on his plate, seven assists is a very comfortable mark. When Jamal is forced to be the guy who keeps the offense fluid, he usually delivers with high assist totals.

Whenever the Lakers are missing their secondary shot-creators, LeBron James takes it upon himself to act as the ultimate floor general. Without other primary playmakers available, the offense is going to be filtered through LeBron on almost every single possession. He’s a master at reading defensive rotations and finding the open man before the defense even realizes they've made a mistake. Against a Phoenix team that can put up points quickly, LeBron will be forced to keep the pace up and keep his teammates involved to stay competitive. The sheer volume of touches he’ll get tonight makes a high-assist night feel very likely as he hunts for the best possible shots. Expect the King to be orchestrating everything from the opening tip to the final whistle.

C.J. McCollum is stepping into a great situation tonight where he should have the ultimate green light to score. He’s one of the most polished scorers in the game, and when he gets into a high-paced environment against a team that doesn't prioritize perimeter defense, he usually takes over. With the current rotation lacking some of its usual depth, the offensive workload is going to fall squarely on his shoulders to keep the scoreboard moving. I’ve watched him time and again find his rhythm in the midrange, and I think he’ll find plenty of open space tonight against a defense that struggles to close out on veteran shooters. The flow of this game is going to be fast and loose, giving him more than enough shot attempts to reach this total comfortably. Expect C.J. to be aggressive early and often as the primary engine for the offense.

When a team loses a high-volume rebounder like Evan Mobley, those boards don't just disappear; they have to be picked up by the rest of the unit. Donovan Mitchell has shown a real knack for sticking his nose in the paint and helping out on the glass whenever the Cavaliers' frontcourt is thin. He is an elite athlete who can outjump taller players for long rebounds, and with the Pelicans playing a physical style, Cleveland will need every bit of help they can get on the boards. We've seen a consistent trend of Mitchell’s rebounding numbers climbing whenever he has to play more of a 'do-it-all' role for this team. He’s already been active on the glass lately, and this specific matchup provides the perfect environment for him to grab five or six boards just by being in the right place at the right time. I really like his energy tonight to translate into a solid night on the stat sheet beyond just his scoring. Trust the hustle and the extra opportunities available in the paint tonight.