Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Kaseya Center
Toronto Raptors +5.5-110
CONF 75%
WCashedFinal 112-91
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Miami Heat Toronto Raptors Record 15-14 ← 17-13 Off Rating 114.7 ← 113.4 Def Rating 111.2 ← 112.7 Net Rating +3.4 ← +0.7 Key Injuries Herro (OUT) Poeltl (OUT)
Gary's Take Asking the Miami Heat to lay nearly two possessions while in the midst of a defensive collapse is a bridge too far. Miami has lost four of their last five games, surrendering massive point totals (132 to New York, 129 to Boston) that suggest their defensive identity is currently missing in action. Without Tyler Herro available to stretch the floor and create offense, Miami becomes far too reliant on Bam Adebayo and a potentially limited Norman Powell to carry the scoring load.
The Toronto Raptors already proved they have the blueprint for this matchup, walking into the Kaseya Center just over a week ago and leaving with a 106-96 victory. While missing Jakob Poeltl hurts their interior defense against Adebayo, the Raptors have been surprisingly resilient on the road this season with a 9-6 record away from home. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram provide enough length and shot-creation to attack a Heat defense that has lost its teeth.
This line feels anchored to Miami's reputation rather than their current reality. When a team is giving up 125+ points regularly and missing their second-leading scorer, they shouldn't be laying 5.5 points against a squad that just beat them by double digits in the same building. Grab the points with the road dog.
Injuries noted
Toronto Raptors: Jakob Poeltl (Out) — Dec 22: Poeltl (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.; RJ Barrett (Out) — Dec 20: Barrett (knee) has been cleared to participate in on-court activities, Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca reports.; Jahmir Young (Doubtful); Norman Powell (Questionable)
Miami Heat: Pelle Larsson (Out) — Dec 22: Larsson is out for Tuesday's game against the Raptors due to a sprained left ankle. Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.; Tyler Herro (Out) — Dec 22: Herro (toe) will not play Tuesday against the Raptors, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.; Nikola Jovic (Out) — Dec 17: Jovic (elbow) is considered week-to-week, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.; Terry Rozier (Out) — Oct 23: The NBA placed Rozier on immediate leave from the Heat on Thursday, ESPN's Shams Charania reports.
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- Board stored December 23, 2025 at 9:10 AM ET.
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Props on this game
2Scottie BarnesOVER 4.5 Assists Assists-137
LActual 4
Scottie Barnes is going to have the ball in his hands all night against the Heat. With RJ Barrett sitting this one out, the Raptors lose a major source of scoring and secondary playmaking, which puts a massive workload on Scottie's shoulders. He is naturally a brilliant passer who loves to find his teammates from the high post or while driving to the rim.
Without Barrett, Barnes is the undisputed engine of this Toronto offense and will likely see his usage rate spike. Even though Miami plays a tough, disciplined defense, they'll have their hands full trying to account for Scottie's vision and size advantage. I expect him to facilitate early to get his shooters in a rhythm, making five assists a very reachable target.
He’s the guy Toronto trusts to make every big decision tonight.
Bam AdebayoOVER 9.5 Rebounds Rebounds-130
WActual 12
Bam Adebayo is in a prime position to dominate the glass tonight against a depleted Raptors frontcourt. Toronto is missing Jakob Poeltl, who is not only their best rebounder but the only player with the size and strength to really challenge Bam in the paint. Without their starting center, the Raptors are forced to play smaller, which gives Bam a massive physical advantage on every missed shot.
He is an elite athlete who tracks the ball well and knows exactly how to use his body to secure position. Miami will be leaning on him to anchor the defense and start the fast break, meaning he'll be active on the boards from the jump. Given the lack of a true rim protector on the other side, Bam should have no problem clearing double digits.
This looks like a big night for the Heat's cornerstone player.
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