Sports picks for Monday, December 22, 2025

McCaffrey is the engine of the 49ers offense and sees elite volume in both the running and passing game near the goal line. With 12 touchdowns already this season, he is the most bankable asset to find the end zone against an Indianapolis defense that can be exploited by versatile backs.

Warren has seen an increasing share of red zone looks as the season has progressed, serving as a reliable safety valve for the Colts passing attack. At +225, he offers great value against a San Francisco defense that often prioritizes stopping outside receivers, leaving the middle open for tight ends.

As the leagues premier workhorse with 16 touchdowns, Taylor is almost guaranteed to get the ball if the Colts reach the red zone on their opening script. Indianapolis will likely lean on their ground game early to establish a home-field rhythm on Monday Night Football.

Jarrett Allen is going to be the biggest force on the floor tonight with Evan Mobley sidelined. He's already vacuuming up nearly 11 rebounds a game this season, and against a Charlotte team that really lacks size in the middle, he should have a field day on the glass. Expect him to be extremely busy in the paint and easily clear this number.

With Walker Kessler out for the Jazz, there is a massive hole in the middle of that Utah defense. Jokic is already the best in the world at positioning himself, and without a true 7-footer to box him out, he is going to be cleaning up every miss. He is the focal point of everything Denver does, and I expect him to dominate the boards solo tonight. Take the over.

With Ja Morant and half the Grizzlies roster watching from the sidelines tonight, Jaren Jackson Jr. is basically the only proven scorer left on the floor for Memphis. He's going to see a mountain of shots because there just isn't anyone else to lead the offense right now. 17.5 feels like a very low bar for a guy who will be the focal point of every single possession for as long as he's in the game.

Derrick White is the ultimate 'right play' guy, and with Tatum's playmaking missing from the lineup, the ball is going to be in White's hands a ton more than usual. Indiana is currently missing their best defensive guards, so White should have clear lanes to drive and kick to Boston's shooters. He's a master at reading the floor, and in this expanded role, five assists feels like a very safe bet.

Daniel Gafford is going to be a busy man tonight with Dereck Lively II out of the lineup. He's already grabbing over 8 boards a night this season, and with the extra minutes coming his way as the primary center, he should dominate the glass. I expect him to cruise past this number against a Pelicans team that will give him plenty of opportunities for rebounds.

Asking Donovan Mitchell to drop 31 points while he’s reportedly fighting off an illness seems like a lot to ask, especially since he's averaging about 25 a game. If the Cavs get out to a big lead against the Hornets, they’ll likely give him some extra rest on the bench to help him recover. I don't see him having the energy or the minutes to hunt for a massive scoring total tonight.

The Nuggets are looking a bit thin in the rotation tonight, which means the ball is going to be in Jamal Murray’s hands for a lot of heavy lifting. The Jazz have really struggled to keep lead guards from getting into the paint, and Murray is at his best when he is creating for others in the pick-and-roll. With his usage expected to climb, I see him easily finding his teammates for at least 7 helpers. Give me the over.

Cade has been playing like a man on a mission lately, and with Portland missing their primary defensive stopper in Jerami Grant, there isn't anyone on that Blazers roster who can actually stay in front of him. He’s the engine for everything Detroit does, and I expect him to be ultra-aggressive from the jump tonight. Even with a higher line, Cade’s ability to score at all three levels against a leaky defense makes him a great pick to put up a massive performance.

Whenever Jalen Suggs is out of the lineup, the opposing star guard usually has a field day, and it just so happens that tonight that guard is the greatest shooter we've ever seen. Without Suggs' constant hounding and defensive energy, Steph is going to find those split-second openings that he almost always turns into a 30-point performance. At home and with a clear path to get his shots off, I don't see anyone on this Magic roster keeping him under thirty.

With Jayson Tatum sitting this one out, the Celtics offense is basically the Jaylen Brown show tonight. We know he loves the spotlight, and against a Pacers defense that plays fast and doesn't offer much resistance on the perimeter, he's going to get all the shots he can handle. I expect him to be aggressive from the jump and easily clear this mark as the primary scoring option.

Shai is obviously one of the best in the league, but this matchup looks like a massive blowout waiting to happen given how shorthanded Memphis is. If the Thunder are up big heading into the fourth quarter, there's just no reason for him to be out there chasing 33 points. I expect him to have an efficient night and then grab a seat on the bench early while the second unit finishes the job.

While everyone watches McCaffrey, Im looking at George Kittle to rumble into the end zone against this Colts secondary. Indianapolis has struggled all season to contain athletic tight ends, often losing track of them once the play breaks down. Brock Purdy trusts Kittle more than anyone when the windows get tight near the goal line. Kittles ability to create yards after the catch makes him a threat to score from the 20-yard line just as easily as the 2-yard line. With the 49ers likely moving the ball at will, Kittle is going to get at least two high-value targets in scoring position. This +120 value is too tasty to ignore for a guy who leads the team in receiving touchdowns.

Christian McCaffrey is essentially a wide receiver who happens to line up in the backfield, and Kyle Shanahan knows exactly how to exploit that. Whether it's a quick screen or a choice route over the middle, CMC is almost always the primary read for Brock Purdy when the 49ers need to move the chains. He’s been incredibly consistent lately, clearing this 40-yard mark in five straight games without much sweat. The Colts' linebackers are going to have a nightmare of a time trying to track him in space, especially on those third-down situations where he excels. I expect him to be the ultimate safety valve again, racking up easy yards through the air. This feels like one of the most reliable plays on the board given his heavy involvement in the passing game.

When the 49ers are navigating injuries to their wideout group, George Kittle transforms from an elite blocker into the absolute focal point of the passing attack. He’s been on an absolute tear recently, looking like the biggest mismatch on the field every single week. Kittle is too big for the Colts' defensive backs and simply too fast for their linebackers to stay with over the middle of the field. His connection with Purdy is at an all-time high, and they seem to look for him whenever they need a chunk play to flip the field. He’s been hitting this yardage total with room to spare for over a month now, and I don't see Indianapolis having the personnel to slow him down. Expect another high-volume day for the People's Tight End.

Jauan Jennings is a fantastic situational player and a 'third-down' specialist, but his overall volume usually takes a back seat when the stars are healthy. With Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle dominating the target share, there simply aren't enough balls to go around for Jennings to consistently clear a number this high. He does a lot of the dirty work like blocking and making the occasional tough catch, but he rarely sees the high-volume yardage totals that top receivers do. He’s stayed under this yardage mark in four of his last five games, proving that his role is more about efficiency than volume. Unless he manages to break a fluke long play, he’s likely to finish with a modest yardage total. I expect him to be a secondary option in the game plan tonight.

Brock Purdy is undeniably one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, but he isn't always asked to air it out for massive yardage. The 49ers are at their best when they have a balanced attack, and I expect them to lean heavily on the ground game to control the tempo against Indianapolis. Purdy has actually stayed under this yardage threshold in three of his last five games, often because the Niners build a lead and switch to a run-heavy clock-killing mode. If the San Francisco defense plays as well as expected, Purdy won't need to take many risks or hunt for big numbers in the second half. This looks like a game where efficiency and ball security will be prioritized over high-volume passing stats. I’m siding with the lower yardage total here.