Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans
Smoothie King Center
New Orleans Pelicans ML-108
CONF 60%
WCashedFinal 113-119
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
New Orleans Dallas Record 7-22 11-18 ← Off Rating 107.2 110.1 ← Def Rating 117.6 110.6 ← Net Rating -10.4 -0.4 ← Key Injuries Jones (Q) Flagg, Klay (Q)
Gary's Take If you just look at the season-long efficiency numbers above, Dallas looks like the clear side. But games aren't played on spreadsheets, and right now, these two teams are moving in opposite directions. The New Orleans Pelicans have suddenly found a rhythm, rattling off four straight wins while averaging nearly 130 points per game. That offensive explosion, led by Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, changes the calculus completely against a Dallas defense that recently surrendered 140 points to the Utah Jazz.
The context here is brutal for the Mavericks. They are 3-8 on the road, dealing with nagging injuries to key contributors like Cooper Flagg (back) and Klay Thompson (knee), and face a quick turnaround with Christmas Day looming. With Kyrie Irving already out indefinitely, the offensive burden falls almost entirely on Anthony Davis. While Davis is elite, asking him to outscore a red-hot Pelicans unit solo in a road environment where Dallas consistently struggles is a tall order.
New Orleans' defensive rating is admittedly poor, but their recent form suggests they are simply outscoring their problems. In a pick'em situation, I trust the home team with the hot hand over a road team battling attrition and looking ahead to the holidays. The Pelicans' offense stays hot and extends the streak.
Ride the hot hand and take the Pelicans at home.
Injuries noted
Dallas Mavericks: Miles Kelly (Day-To-Day) — Dec 22: Kelly recorded 14 points in Monday preseason action.; Max Christie (Day-To-Day) — Dec 21: Christie (illness) is listed as questionable for Monday game against New Orleans.; Klay Thompson (Day-To-Day) — Dec 21: Thompson (knee) is listed as questionable for Monday game against the Pelicans.; Cooper Flagg (Day-To-Day) — Dec 21: Flagg is listed as questionable for Monday game against the Pelicans due to a back contusion.; Dereck Lively II (Out) — Dec 21: Lively successfully underwent surgery on his right foot Sunday.; Kyrie Irving (Out) — Dec 13: Irving (knee) remains out indefinitely and does not have a return timetable.; Dante Exum (Out) — Nov 20: The Mavericks announced Thursday that Exum will undergo season-ending knee surgery.
New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones (Day-To-Day) — Dec 21: Jones (head/migraine) is questionable for Monday game against the Mavericks.; Dejounte Murray (Out) — Sep 25: Murray (Achilles) could return right after New Years.
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- Board stored December 22, 2025 at 12:06 PM ET.
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Props on this game
1Daniel GaffordOVER 7.5 Rebounds Rebounds-110
LActual 5
Daniel Gafford is going to be a busy man tonight with Dereck Lively II out of the lineup. He's already grabbing over 8 boards a night this season, and with the extra minutes coming his way as the primary center, he should dominate the glass. I expect him to cruise past this number against a Pelicans team that will give him plenty of opportunities for rebounds.
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