Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Milwaukee Bucks -1.5-110
CONF 72%
WCashedFinal 111-94
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Indiana Pacers Milwaukee Bucks Record 6-23 11-18 ← Off Rating 109.1 113.2 ← Def Rating 113.6 ← 114.2 Net Rating -4.4 -1.0 ← Key Injuries McConnell (Q) Antetokounmpo (OUT)
Gary's Take This game comes down to a brutal situational spot for Indiana colliding with a massive interior mismatch. The Pacers are playing on the second night of a back-to-back after a draining loss to Boston, and their frontcourt is completely decimated. With Isaiah Jackson doubtful (head) and Myles Turner now wearing a Bucks jersey, Indiana is forced to rely on Jay Huff and undrafted rookie contracts to protect the rim.
That reality sets the stage for a "revenge game" feast for Myles Turner and Bobby Portis. While Giannis Antetokounmpo remains out, Milwaukee's new-look core has enough firepower to exploit a tired defense. The Bucks are shooting nearly 40% from deep compared to Indiana's league-worst 33.6% mark, creating a simple math problem that the Pacers—especially without T.J. McConnell to spark the bench energy—cannot solve on zero days of rest.
Kevin Porter Jr. and Kyle Kuzma provide enough secondary scoring to support the interior dominance of Turner and Portis. When you combine the rest advantage, the emotional motivation for Turner returning to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and the glaring talent gap in the paint, the road favorite is the only logical look.
Give me Milwaukee -1.5 to handle business against a gassed and depleted Pacers squad.
Injuries noted
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out) — Dec 20: Antetokounmpo (calf) participated in Saturday's practice, per the Bucks' X page.; Taurean Prince (Out) — Nov 13: Prince underwent surgery Thursday to repair the herniated disc in his neck and will remain out indefinitely.
Indiana Pacers: T.J. McConnell (Day-To-Day) — Dec 23: McConnell (knee) will not play Monday against the Celtics.; Isaiah Jackson (Doubtful) — Dec 22: Jackson is having his head evaluated and will not return to Monday's game versus the Celtics.; Ben Sheppard (Out) — Dec 19: Sheppard (calf) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Pelicans.; Aaron Nesmith (Out) — Nov 15: Nesmith (knee) is expected to be out for around four weeks, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.; Obi Toppin (Out) — Oct 31: Toppin will undergo surgery to place a screw in his right foot Monday, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.; Tyrese Haliburton (Out) — Jul 7: Haliburton will miss the entire 2025-26 season while recovering from surgery on his right Achilles tendon, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.; Johnny Furphy (Questionable)
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Props on this game
2Myles TurnerOVER 12.5 Pts Pts-117
LActual 10
Myles Turner is going to be asked to do a lot more heavy lifting tonight with the Pacers’ roster looking like a hospital ward. With Tyrese Haliburton and Obi Toppin sidelined, the offensive touches have to go somewhere, and Turner is the most seasoned vet left on the floor.
He’s facing a Milwaukee team that doesn't have Giannis to protect the rim, which should give Myles plenty of clean looks inside and out. Even with Brook Lopez lurking, Turner’s ability to step out and hit the three makes him a nightmare to guard in this specific matchup.
I expect him to be aggressive from the jump as Indiana tries to keep pace. Twelve points is a very modest ask for a guy who should see a significant uptick in his usual shot volume.
Pascal SiakamOVER 22.5 Pts Pts-113
LActual 15
Pascal Siakam is stepping into a massive role tonight as the clear-cut number one option for an Indiana team missing its engine in Tyrese Haliburton. Without Giannis Antetokounmpo patrolling the paint for the Bucks, Siakam should find plenty of lanes to exploit and get to his favorite spots in the mid-range.
He’s been forced into high-usage roles throughout his career and historically thrives when he’s the focal point of the offense. Milwaukee is still a tough squad, but they simply don’t have the individual wing defenders available to keep Pascal from getting to the rim all night.
I’m looking for him to take at least 20 shots and really command the flow of the game. He’s the most talented player on the floor for the Pacers tonight, and he should play like it.
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