Sports picks for Wednesday, December 17, 2025

TALE OF THE TAPE Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Record 10-15 → 15-12 Off Rating 111.5 → 115.2 Def Rating 117.5 → 110.4 Net Rating -6.0 → +4.8 Key Injuries Essengue (OUT), A. Dosunmu (Q) Max Strus (OUT), S. Merrill (OUT), Evan Mobley (OUT), L. Nance Jr. (OUT) Gary's Take Cleveland brings the stronger overall profile into this one, with a clear edge in offensive and defensive efficiency and the better record. Donovan Mitchell is playing at a true star level as the primary scorer, and Jarrett Allen stabilizes the middle, which is why the Cavaliers grade out as the more trustworthy team on a neutral court. But this isn’t neutral. Chicago is at home, shoots more efficiently from the field and from three, and has actually been the better clutch team, winning a solid majority of its close games. Nikola Vucevic gives them a dependable interior option, with Kevin Huerter and Jevon Carter stretching the floor. With Evan Mobley and Max Strus sidelined, Cleveland loses some frontcourt depth and spacing, making it harder to fully translate that net rating edge into a big road margin. I expect Mitchell and Allen to do enough to keep Cleveland in control, but Chicago’s shooting and late-game poise should keep this within a couple of possessions. The main risk is Cleveland’s defense overwhelming a Bulls team that’s dropped several recent home games, but with this number, I’m backing the home dog. Give me Chicago Bulls +5.5 -114.

TALE OF THE TAPE Minnesota Timberwolves Memphis Grizzlies Record 17-9 ← 12-14 Off Rating 119.1 ← 107.1 Def Rating 112.0 → 111.2 Net Rating +7.2 ← -4.1 Key Injuries Mike Conley (OUT) ← Brandon Clarke, Cam Spencer, John Konchar, Javon Small, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr. (all OUT) Gary's Take Minnesota’s offensive firepower at home goes up against a Memphis group that’s still grinding through injuries and an inefficient attack. Even without Mike Conley organizing the half court, the Timberwolves own a clear edge in overall efficiency and shot-making, especially from three. Anthony Edwards is the best scorer in this matchup, and with Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle spacing the floor, Minnesota can punish Memphis any time they overhelp on drives. Memphis will lean heavily on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. to create, but this Grizzlies offense has been far less efficient over the full season and doesn’t have the same perimeter punch. Both teams are comfortable playing fast, and that higher-possession environment favors the deeper, more explosive side, especially with the Grizzlies missing multiple rotation pieces in the frontcourt and on the wing. If Memphis hangs around, it’s because their defense holds up and Minnesota’s offense looks disjointed without Conley in crunch time. In the long run, though, the talent and efficiency gap should show over 48 minutes, so I’m laying the points with the Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5.

TALE OF THE TAPE South Florida Bulls Old Dominion Monarchs Record - - Off Rating 501.7 ← 460.7 Def Rating 4642.0 → 3977.0 Net Rating 0.0 0.0 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take South Florida brings the more dynamic offense to this matchup, with a unit that piles up both rushing and passing production and has found the end zone far more often over the season. Old Dominion can absolutely run the ball and control tempo, but they simply haven’t matched the same overall scoring punch. That offensive edge is backed by more efficient, less turnover-prone quarterback play for the Bulls. Old Dominion’s case is their defense: they’ve been stingier in terms of total yardage allowed, especially against the pass, and they’ll try to muddy this up by leaning on their ground game. The problem is that if South Florida jumps ahead at home, ODU’s passing attack has been less efficient and more mistake-prone, which is a tough script to chase in. With overall advanced net ratings essentially even, I want the team with the better quarterback, the more productive offense, and home field in a short number. That’s why I’m backing South Florida Bulls ML -144.

TALE OF THE TAPE Delaware Blue Hens Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Total Offense (YPG) 418.7 ← 346.0 Passing Offense (YPG) 302.8 ← 156.2 Rushing Offense (YPG) 115.9 → 189.8 Offensive TDs 42 ← 37 QB Rating 133.9 ← 109.4 Total Yards Allowed 4934.0 ← 5006.0 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Delaware’s passing game is the differentiator here. Their quarterback has been significantly more efficient with a strong touchdown-to-interception ratio, and this offense leans into that, throwing for far more yardage than Louisiana while still finishing drives at a high clip. At home on a weeknight, that kind of aerial attack can put real pressure on a defense that has already given up plenty of yards over the course of the season. Louisiana wants this to be a ground-and-pound game. They run it well and pile up rushing scores, but their passing production and efficiency lag, and the quarterback has more interceptions than touchdown passes. In a matchup between similar-tier programs where advanced metrics see them as roughly even overall, I want the more dangerous passing offense and the cleaner QB play, especially getting plus money at home. I’m backing the Delaware Blue Hens ML +110; the main way this burns us is if Louisiana’s run game completely controls tempo and keeps Delaware’s offense on the sideline, but I’m willing to bet the Blue Hens’ passing edge shows up over four quarters.

TALE OF THE TAPE Xavier Creighton Recent Form (L5) 5-0 ← 1-4 Off Rating 111.7 ← 111.2 EFG% 50.9% → 52.2% Points Per Game 78.4 ← 74.6 Turnovers/Game 8.8 ← 11.6 Off Rebounds/Game 11.1 → 11.7 FT Rate 0.322 ← 0.264 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Xavier comes in rolling, unbeaten over its last five with comfortable home wins while Creighton has dropped four of five against a tougher slate and is still looking for that first big resume win. The efficiency profiles are close, but Xavier’s combination of slightly stronger overall offense, higher scoring output, and a clear edge in getting to the free-throw line gives them more reliable possessions over 40 minutes. The real separator is ball security. Xavier is far cleaner with the basketball, while Creighton’s extra turnovers erase a lot of the shooting edge they have on paper. Those extra empty trips in a hostile gym tend to snowball, especially when Xavier can answer by living at the stripe and keeping the scoreboard moving. The only real path to trouble is Creighton catching absolute fire from the field while simultaneously tightening up their turnover issues, but that’s asking a lot on the road. I’m laying the short number and backing Xavier Musketeers -3.5 to win this by more than one possession.

TALE OF THE TAPE UIC Flames Northern Iowa Panthers Off Rating 112.9 ← 110.5 eFG% 50.3% → 54.4% Turnovers/G 13.5 → 8.9 Off Reb/G 14.1 ← 7.1 FT Volume/FT% Higher rate ← Lower rate Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Northern Iowa brings the cleaner, more polished halfcourt offense – better shooting and far fewer turnovers – but this matchup tilts toward UIC’s physicality and whistle pressure, especially in their own gym. The Flames offense has been slightly more efficient overall because they manufacture extra chances on the glass and get to the stripe in volume, converting at a much higher rate. Over 40 minutes, that kind of offensive rebounding and free-throw edge is exactly how a home dog hangs inside a short number, even against the more efficient shooting team. Northern Iowa’s ball security should keep them in control for stretches, but UIC’s ability to extend possessions and pile up free points keeps this within one or two possessions late. I’m taking the cushion with the home side – give me UIC Flames +4.5 -108.

TALE OF THE TAPE Alabama Crimson Tide South Florida Bulls Points/Game 93.1 ← 88.6 Off Rating 123.2 ← 117.7 Effective FG% 47.7% ← 43.6% Turnovers/Game 10.4 ← 11.8 Off Reb/Game 11.5 → 15.5 FT Rate 0.340 → 0.447 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Alabama comes in with a true top-tier offense: they play fast, score in the 90s on average, and their shooting efficiency and offensive rating are both clearly superior. At home recently they’ve hung big numbers on everyone, with multiple games clearing 90 and even 100, and they do it while keeping turnovers low so almost every trip is a clean look. South Florida isn’t a pushover offensively – they can run, get to the line a ton, and they pound the offensive glass for second chances. That profile keeps them competitive, but it also feeds into exactly the kind of up-tempo game Alabama thrives in. Over 40 minutes, Alabama’s combination of pace, shot-making, and ball security should wear down a Bulls team that’s already allowed 83+ three times in its last five. In a high-possession game in Tuscaloosa, Alabama’s offensive gap and home edge project to a comfortable margin, so I’m laying the points with Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 -120.

TALE OF THE TAPE Gonzaga Bulldogs Campbell Fighting Camels Record (last 5) 5-0 ← 3-2 Off Rating 126.0 ← 112.2 Points Per Game 91.9 ← 82.9 eFG% 57.7% ← 51.4% Turnovers/Game 10.3 ← 14.5 Off Reb/Game 13.5 → 14.8 FT Rate 0.300 → 0.447 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Gonzaga is rolling right now, stacking efficient, double-digit wins and turning games into track meets on their terms. The Bulldogs are clearly the more polished offense, scoring more per possession and per game while shooting at a much cleaner clip and taking far better care of the ball. Recent results like 109-58 over the Ospreys and 100-61 over the Terrapins show how quickly this team can blow a game open once they get downhill. Campbell brings fight on the glass and gets to the line often, but their extra offensive boards are offset by sloppier ball-handling and less efficient shooting. We’ve already seen them surrender 87 to the Nittany Lions and 99 to the Demon Deacons on the road, and that defensive profile is a problem in this building against Gonzaga’s pace and pressure. Over forty minutes, Gonzaga’s firepower and efficiency should stretch this margin well into blowout territory. I’m laying the points with Gonzaga Bulldogs -36.5. The only way this misses is if Gonzaga completely eases off for long stretches and lets Campbell hang around late.

TALE OF THE TAPE UCLA Bruins Arizona State Sun Devils Scoring (PPG) 76.7 → 80.7 Off Rating 116.5 ← 115.5 eFG% 54.5% → 54.9% Rebounds 33.7 ← 33.2 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Arizona State comes in with the hotter hand and the more explosive scoring profile, putting up over 80 a night and cracking 100 against the Cougars and 86 on the Sooners during a 4–1 run. UCLA has been solid but not dominant lately at 3–2 in its last five, mixing a blowout of the Blue Hose and a home win over the Ducks with an 82–72 loss at the Bulldogs and another setback at the Golden Bears. On paper, these are peers more than a true favorite–underdog mismatch. UCLA is a bit cleaner in the possession game with fewer turnovers and better work on the offensive glass, but Arizona State’s shooting efficiency is essentially identical and its scoring punch gives them multiple ways to stay inside a big number, whether they’re trading buckets or chasing late. In a matchup where efficiency, pace, and rebounding are this close, hanging nearly double digits on the road team feels rich. The risk is UCLA’s home defense tightens up and Arizona State’s shot selection goes off the rails, but with the Sun Devils’ recent scoring form I want the cushion. That’s why I’m taking Arizona State Sun Devils +9.5 against the number.

TALE OF THE TAPE Green Bay UC Santa Barbara Last 5 3-2 → 4-1 Points Per Game 73.2 → 80.8 Off Rating 108.2 → 117.7 eFG% 51.5% → 53.1% Rebounds/Game 33.5 → 37.3 Off Rebounds/Game 8.3 → 12.7 Turnovers/Game 11.2 ← 12.5 FT% 71.9% → 76.3% Key Injuries None None Gary's Take UC Santa Barbara brings a much more explosive and efficient offense into this matchup. The Gauchos score more per game, post a stronger offensive rating, and shoot better from the field, and that advantage is reinforced by how they dominate the glass, especially on the offensive end. Those extra possessions matter on the road, and Green Bay’s weaker rebounding profile is a bad fit against a team that already scores this efficiently. Green Bay’s one clear edge is ball security, but a small turnover advantage usually can’t offset getting out-shot, out-assisted, and out-rebounded over 40 minutes. UC Santa Barbara has also been in better recent form, consistently putting up strong offensive performances, while Green Bay has been more volatile. I see the Gauchos’ scoring and second-chance edge eventually wearing down the Phoenix and stretching this into a multiple-possession game late. That’s why I’m laying the points with UC Santa Barbara Gauchos -5 -110. The main risk is Green Bay’s home-court energy and turnover edge keeping this closer than it should be, but the overall efficiency gap still points to the Gauchos covering this number more often than not.