Creighton Bluejays at Xavier Musketeers

TALE OF THE TAPE

Xavier Creighton Recent Form (L5) 5-0 ← 1-4 Off Rating 111.7 ← 111.2 EFG% 50.9% → 52.2% Points Per Game 78.4 ← 74.6 Turnovers/Game 8.8 ← 11.6 Off Rebounds/Game 11.1 → 11.7 FT Rate 0.322 ← 0.264 Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take Xavier comes in rolling, unbeaten over its last five with comfortable home wins while Creighton has dropped four of five against a tougher slate and is still looking for that first big resume win. The efficiency profiles are close, but Xavier’s combination of slightly stronger overall offense, higher scoring output, and a clear edge in getting to the free-throw line gives them more reliable possessions over 40 minutes.

The real separator is ball security. Xavier is far cleaner with the basketball, while Creighton’s extra turnovers erase a lot of the shooting edge they have on paper. Those extra empty trips in a hostile gym tend to snowball, especially when Xavier can answer by living at the stripe and keeping the scoreboard moving.

The only real path to trouble is Creighton catching absolute fire from the field while simultaneously tightening up their turnover issues, but that’s asking a lot on the road. I’m laying the short number and backing Xavier Musketeers -3.5 to win this by more than one possession.