NBA · Wed, Dec 17 · 8:10 PM

Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Grizzlies· -110

TALE OF THE TAPE Minnesota Timberwolves Memphis Grizzlies Record 17-9 ← 12-14 Off Rating 119.1 ← 107.1 Def Rating 112.0 → 111.2 Net Rating +7.2 ← -4.1 Key Injuries Mike Conley (OUT) ← Brandon Clarke, Cam Spencer, John Konchar, Javon Small, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr. (all OUT) Gary's Take Minnesota’s offensive firepower at home goes up against a Memphis group that’s still grinding through injuries and an inefficient attack. Even without Mike Conley organizing the half court, the Timberwolves own a clear edge in overall efficiency and shot-making, especially from three. Anthony Edwards is the best scorer in this matchup, and with Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle spacing the floor, Minnesota can punish Memphis any time they overhelp on drives. Memphis will lean heavily on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. to create, but this Grizzlies offense has been far less efficient over the full season and doesn’t have the same perimeter punch. Both teams are comfortable playing fast, and that higher-possession environment favors the deeper, more explosive side, especially with the Grizzlies missing multiple rotation pieces in the frontcourt and on the wing. If Memphis hangs around, it’s because their defense holds up and Minnesota’s offense looks disjointed without Conley in crunch time. In the long run, though, the talent and efficiency gap should show over 48 minutes, so I’m laying the points with the Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5.

The pick & result

Published pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Lost
Final score: 116-110

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE

Minnesota Timberwolves Memphis Grizzlies Record 17-9 ← 12-14 Off Rating 119.1 ← 107.1 Def Rating 112.0 → 111.2 Net Rating +7.2 ← -4.1 Key Injuries Mike Conley (OUT) ← Brandon Clarke, Cam Spencer, John Konchar, Javon Small, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr. (all OUT)

Gary's Take Minnesota’s offensive firepower at home goes up against a Memphis group that’s still grinding through injuries and an inefficient attack. Even without Mike Conley organizing the half court, the Timberwolves own a clear edge in overall efficiency and shot-making, especially from three. Anthony Edwards is the best scorer in this matchup, and with Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle spacing the floor, Minnesota can punish Memphis any time they overhelp on drives.

Memphis will lean heavily on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. to create, but this Grizzlies offense has been far less efficient over the full season and doesn’t have the same perimeter punch. Both teams are comfortable playing fast, and that higher-possession environment favors the deeper, more explosive side, especially with the Grizzlies missing multiple rotation pieces in the frontcourt and on the wing.

If Memphis hangs around, it’s because their defense holds up and Minnesota’s offense looks disjointed without Conley in crunch time. In the long run, though, the talent and efficiency gap should show over 48 minutes, so I’m laying the points with the Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5.

Injuries noted

Memphis Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke (Out) — Dec 16: Clarke (knee) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Timberwolves.; Cam Spencer (Out) — Dec 16: Spencer (personal) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Timberwolves.; Ja Morant (Day-To-Day) — Dec 16: Morant (ankle) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Timberwolves.; John Konchar (Out) — Dec 15: Konchar underwent successful left thumb surgery Thursday and will be re-evaluated in three weeks.; Javon Small (Out) — Dec 11: Small (toe) is expected to miss at least three more weeks, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.; Zach Edey (Out) — Dec 11: Edey (ankle) will be re-evaluated in about four weeks, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.; Ty Jerome (Out) — Nov 22: Jerome (calf) will be held out of games for at least 6-to-9 weeks.; Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out) — Oct 18: Pippen will undergo a procedure for a left big toe injury and will be re-evaluated in 12 weeks, ESPN's Shams Charania reported Saturday.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley (Out) — Dec 16: Conley won't play in Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies due to right Achilles tendinopathy, per Dane Moore of 'The Dane Moore NBA Podcast'.; Anthony Edwards (Day-To-Day) — Dec 16: Edwards (foot) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, Dane Moore of 'The Dane Moore NBA Podcast' reports.

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored December 17, 2025 at 9:40 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
RUDY GOBERTREBOUNDS UNDER 11.5
NBAMinnesota Timberwolves· -123
LOST · ACTUAL 16
HYPOTHESIS: Gobert is more likely to finish with 11 or fewer rebounds than to reach 12+ in this matchup. EVIDENCE: He averages 10.3 RPG on the season, meaning the 11.5 line is 1.2 rebounds above his typical output. The market structure has 11.5 shaded to the under at -123 and 12.5 over at plus money, signaling books see 12+ boards as the less common outcome. Memphis usage patterns often pull bigs away from the rim, reducing classic drop-center rebounding volume and forcing more perimeter and long rebounds. Additionally, to clear this line he needs an above-average game relative to his norm rather than just a median performance. CONVERGENCE (0.71): Season-long production, matchup dynamics, and book shading all align toward the under being the favored side, with no strong counter-signal in the data suggesting a minutes or usage spike on the glass. IF WRONG: Memphis misses a ton of shots in the paint, Wolves keep Gobert in deep drop for long stretches, and he logs heavy minutes in a competitive game, creating a high-volume rebounding environment where he pushes into the 13–15 rebound range.
Rudy Gobert
Rebounds under 11.5
-123 · LOST · ACTUAL 16
Minnesota Timberwolves
HYPOTHESIS
Gobert is more likely to finish with 11 or fewer rebounds than to reach 12+ in this matchup. EVIDENCE: He averages 10.3 RPG on the season, meaning the 11.5 line is 1.2 rebounds above his typical output. The market structure has 11.5 shaded to the under at -123 and 12.5 over at plus money, signaling books see 12+ boards as the less common outcome. Memphis usage patterns often pull bigs away from the rim, reducing classic drop-center rebounding volume and forcing more perimeter and long rebounds. Additionally, to clear this line he needs an above-average game relative to his norm rather than just a median performance. CONVERGENCE (0.71): Season-long production, matchup dynamics, and book shading all align toward the under being the favored side, with no strong counter-signal in the data suggesting a minutes or usage spike on the glass. IF WRONG: Memphis misses a ton of shots in the paint, Wolves keep Gobert in deep drop for long stretches, and he logs heavy minutes in a competitive game, creating a high-volume rebounding environment where he pushes into the 13–15 rebound range.
GARY'S PICK
JULIUS RANDLEASSISTS OVER 5.5
NBAMemphis Grizzlies· -116
LOST · ACTUAL 3
HYPOTHESIS: Randle is more likely to record 6+ assists than be held to 5 or fewer, given his creation role. EVIDENCE: He averages 5.8 assists per game, already above the 5.5 line, in about 33.8 minutes, indicating that this level of playmaking is his typical usage rather than a ceiling outcome. Books have marginally juiced the over at -116 versus -111 on the under, implying a slight lean to 6+ dimes. Even though he’s listed as a forward, his offensive role maps more to a point-forward, with frequent on-ball reps and primary-creator responsibilities. Against a strong Minnesota defense that can limit easy scoring, Memphis is likely to rely more on Randle as an initiator to generate quality looks for teammates rather than using him solely as a scorer. CONVERGENCE (0.68): Season averages, role-based volume, and the market’s small over-shade collectively support a modest but clear edge on the over hitting. IF WRONG: Minnesota’s pressure and length disrupt Randle’s handle, leading to more turnovers and forced shots, or Memphis shifts creation more to guards, cutting his touch time and assist chances so he finishes stuck in the 3–5 assist range.
Julius Randle
Assists over 5.5
-116 · LOST · ACTUAL 3
Memphis Grizzlies
HYPOTHESIS
Randle is more likely to record 6+ assists than be held to 5 or fewer, given his creation role. EVIDENCE: He averages 5.8 assists per game, already above the 5.5 line, in about 33.8 minutes, indicating that this level of playmaking is his typical usage rather than a ceiling outcome. Books have marginally juiced the over at -116 versus -111 on the under, implying a slight lean to 6+ dimes. Even though he’s listed as a forward, his offensive role maps more to a point-forward, with frequent on-ball reps and primary-creator responsibilities. Against a strong Minnesota defense that can limit easy scoring, Memphis is likely to rely more on Randle as an initiator to generate quality looks for teammates rather than using him solely as a scorer. CONVERGENCE (0.68): Season averages, role-based volume, and the market’s small over-shade collectively support a modest but clear edge on the over hitting. IF WRONG: Minnesota’s pressure and length disrupt Randle’s handle, leading to more turnovers and forced shots, or Memphis shifts creation more to guards, cutting his touch time and assist chances so he finishes stuck in the 3–5 assist range.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NBA game this day The NBA record Today's NBA picks Every sport this day