Sports picks for Saturday, May 17, 2025
50 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
5
Tigers MoneylineI’m taking the Tigers moneyline at -130 because the hard numbers say Detroit’s bats have a clear edge—they’re averaging a strong 7.00 runs per game compared to Toronto’s 4.40, and while neither staff is lights-out, Detroit’s run prevention (5.40 allowed) is still notably better than Toronto’s ugly 6.20. There’s no pitcher data to split hairs, but when one club is scoring nearly three more runs per contest and giving up fewer, you ride that edge, especially when the market’s stable and there’s no sign of a trap. In a pick 'em scenario with cold stats, the value’s on Detroit’s offense to carry the day.
I’m taking the Tigers moneyline at -130 because the hard numbers say Detroit’s bats have a clear edge—they’re averaging a strong 7.00 runs per game compared to Toronto’s 4.40, and while neither staff is lights-out, Detroit’s run prevention (5.40 allowed) is still notably better than Toronto’s ugly 6.20. There’s no pitcher data to split hairs, but when one club is scoring nearly three more runs per contest and giving up fewer, you ride that edge, especially when the market’s stable and there’s no sign of a trap. In a pick 'em scenario with cold stats, the value’s on Detroit’s offense to carry the day.
Rockies +2.5I'm taking the Rockies +2.5 at -110 because the numbers show this team is coming in with real juice—a 3-game win streak and putting up 8 runs in their last outing. Arizona, meanwhile, is not exactly locking opponents down, allowing 4.80 runs per game, and just lost a 7-8 shootout themselves. Colorado’s offense is actually averaging more runs per game (4.60) than the D-Backs (4.40), and with no dominant starting pitcher data on either side, I’ll side with the underdog getting a generous cushion. The spread’s big enough to cover a close contest or even a modest Arizona win, and with the Rockies’ bats hot and the Diamondbacks’ pitching leaking, I like my chances. Give me the runs and the momentum—this is a sharp, value-driven play.
I'm taking the Rockies +2.5 at -110 because the numbers show this team is coming in with real juice—a 3-game win streak and putting up 8 runs in their last outing. Arizona, meanwhile, is not exactly locking opponents down, allowing 4.80 runs per game, and just lost a 7-8 shootout themselves.
Colorado’s offense is actually averaging more runs per game (4.60) than the D-Backs (4.40), and with no dominant starting pitcher data on either side, I’ll side with the underdog getting a generous cushion. The spread’s big enough to cover a close contest or even a modest Arizona win, and with the Rockies’ bats hot and the Diamondbacks’ pitching leaking, I like my chances.
Give me the runs and the momentum—this is a sharp, value-driven play.
Padres -1.5I'm backing the Padres -1.5 at plus money because the numbers paint a clear picture: San Diego is putting up a healthy 5.00 runs a game, while the Mariners are scraping together just 2.60, and both teams are leaking runs, but Seattle's offense flat-out hasn't shown up. The Padres’ recent two-game win streak gives them momentum, and the Mariners’ 6.00 runs allowed per outing means San Diego should have plenty of chances to open up a lead. Even with no starting pitcher data, I trust the Padres’ bats to do the heavy lifting here and cover the run line, especially at home. The odds give us enough juice to make this a smart, aggressive play.
I'm backing the Padres -1.5 at plus money because the numbers paint a clear picture: San Diego is putting up a healthy 5.00 runs a game, while the Mariners are scraping together just 2.60, and both teams are leaking runs, but Seattle's offense flat-out hasn't shown up. The Padres’ recent two-game win streak gives them momentum, and the Mariners’ 6.00 runs allowed per outing means San Diego should have plenty of chances to open up a lead. Even with no starting pitcher data, I trust the Padres’ bats to do the heavy lifting here and cover the run line, especially at home. The odds give us enough juice to make this a smart, aggressive play.
Giants MoneylineI'm taking the Giants moneyline here because even without the luxury of pitcher stats, the numbers lean in their favor—San Francisco is giving up just 4.60 runs per game while Oakland is coughing up a whopping 7.60, and that kind of leaky pitching usually spells trouble on the road. The Giants have the home park edge and are coming off a 10-6 win with a solid 5.60 runs per game, while the A's are hot with the bats but bleeding on defense, fresh off a 19-2 blowout but with a two-game win streak that feels more like an outlier than a trend given their season-long runs allowed. The line is steady and the public isn't driving anything crazy here, so I'll trust the math: Giants to win, but I’m not touching that run line with these bullpens. Old-school, straight-up play.
I'm taking the Giants moneyline here because even without the luxury of pitcher stats, the numbers lean in their favor—San Francisco is giving up just 4.60 runs per game while Oakland is coughing up a whopping 7.60, and that kind of leaky pitching usually spells trouble on the road. The Giants have the home park edge and are coming off a 10-6 win with a solid 5.60 runs per game, while the A's are hot with the bats but bleeding on defense, fresh off a 19-2 blowout but with a two-game win streak that feels more like an outlier than a trend given their season-long runs allowed. The line is steady and the public isn't driving anything crazy here, so I'll trust the math: Giants to win, but I’m not touching that run line with these bullpens. Old-school, straight-up play.
Dodgers -1.5Look, the Dodgers are coming off a game where they hung 19 runs on the board, and they’re rolling with a 2-game win streak while averaging 6.60 runs per game—nearly two more than the Angels’ 4.80. The Dodgers’ offense is a machine right now, and while the Angels also have a 2-game streak, their last outing was a modest 5-1 win and their defense gives up almost as much as they score. No edge in pitching data, but when one team’s bats are this hot and they’re at home, I’m not overthinking it—the Dodgers should cover the -1.5 with that kind of firepower and momentum, especially at near-even odds. Give me the Dodgers to flex.
Look, the Dodgers are coming off a game where they hung 19 runs on the board, and they’re rolling with a 2-game win streak while averaging 6.60 runs per game—nearly two more than the Angels’ 4.80. The Dodgers’ offense is a machine right now, and while the Angels also have a 2-game streak, their last outing was a modest 5-1 win and their defense gives up almost as much as they score. No edge in pitching data, but when one team’s bats are this hot and they’re at home, I’m not overthinking it—the Dodgers should cover the -1.5 with that kind of firepower and momentum, especially at near-even odds. Give me the Dodgers to flex.
Player props
21Aaron Judge is one of the most consistent hitters in MLB and rarely goes hitless over multiple games. Even without matchup data, Judge's career average and recent form typically put his hit probability above 76%. At -200 (d=1.5), the line slightly underrates his hit probability, offering modest positive value on the over.
Aaron Judge is one of the most consistent hitters in MLB and rarely goes hitless over multiple games. Even without matchup data, Judge's career average and recent form typically put his hit probability above 76%. At -200 (d=1.5), the line slightly underrates his hit probability, offering modest positive value on the over.
Pete Alonso is a power hitter who records at least one base in the majority of games, whether by single, double, or home run. Even with no pitcher data, his career consistency at reaching base makes the over a strong play. The -200 line is slightly conservative compared to his historical likelihood (~75%) of clearing this low bar.
Pete Alonso is a power hitter who records at least one base in the majority of games, whether by single, double, or home run. Even with no pitcher data, his career consistency at reaching base makes the over a strong play. The -200 line is slightly conservative compared to his historical likelihood (~75%) of clearing this low bar.
Lindor regularly contributes with both hits and run production, especially in games against top-tier offenses like the Yankees. Even with no matchup data, his all-around skill set and everyday status give him a strong chance to reach 2+ combined hits, runs, or RBIs. At -150 (d=1.67), the line is fair with a positive expectation.
Lindor regularly contributes with both hits and run production, especially in games against top-tier offenses like the Yankees. Even with no matchup data, his all-around skill set and everyday status give him a strong chance to reach 2+ combined hits, runs, or RBIs. At -150 (d=1.67), the line is fair with a positive expectation.
Even without recent player data, Luis Robert Jr. projects as the White Sox's most consistent hitter when healthy. He is a high-contact, power threat, and regularly bats in a favorable spot in the lineup. League-average hitters get at least 1 hit in over 75% of games, and Robert is above average. With implied odds of 64.3% and my probability at 83%, this over is strong EV+.
Even without recent player data, Luis Robert Jr. projects as the White Sox's most consistent hitter when healthy.
He is a high-contact, power threat, and regularly bats in a favorable spot in the lineup. League-average hitters get at least 1 hit in over 75% of games, and Robert is above average.
With implied odds of 64.3% and my probability at 83%, this over is strong EV+.
Suzuki has a proven MLB track record with a strong bat-to-ball profile. As a regular starter for the Cubs, he typically gets 4+ plate appearances per game and maintains a high batting average. League averages for a player in his role suggest about an 80% chance of at least one hit, while the line implies 66.7%. This is a reliable, high-floor play.
Suzuki has a proven MLB track record with a strong bat-to-ball profile. As a regular starter for the Cubs, he typically gets 4+ plate appearances per game and maintains a high batting average. League averages for a player in his role suggest about an 80% chance of at least one hit, while the line implies 66.7%. This is a reliable, high-floor play.
Vaughn is an everyday bat who typically hits in the heart of the White Sox lineup and is a league-average hitter by most metrics. He gets plenty of chances per game and has a career average near .260. While not an elite contact hitter, the bar is low at 0.5 hits, and this is a standard high-frequency MLB prop.
Vaughn is an everyday bat who typically hits in the heart of the White Sox lineup and is a league-average hitter by most metrics. He gets plenty of chances per game and has a career average near .260. While not an elite contact hitter, the bar is low at 0.5 hits, and this is a standard high-frequency MLB prop.
Hoerner is a contact-oriented hitter who often bats near the top of the Cubs lineup. He has a high in-play rate and a history of consistency in reaching base, making the over 0.5 hits a solid play. With an implied probability of 66.7% but my projection at 77%, this is a strong, if modest, value.
Hoerner is a contact-oriented hitter who often bats near the top of the Cubs lineup. He has a high in-play rate and a history of consistency in reaching base, making the over 0.5 hits a solid play. With an implied probability of 66.7% but my projection at 77%, this is a strong, if modest, value.
Even with no player stats, Olson’s 3.5 strikeout line is extremely low for a starting pitcher. Most starting pitchers average at least 4+ Ks per start barring injury or severe ineffectiveness, and books have shaded this line heavily to the over. With a typical probability of 85-90% to go over this line in a start, there’s strong value even at the juice. The matchup against the Blue Jays, who are a contact-oriented team but not elite at avoiding strikeouts, supports the over.
Even with no player stats, Olson’s 3.5 strikeout line is extremely low for a starting pitcher. Most starting pitchers average at least 4+ Ks per start barring injury or severe ineffectiveness, and books have shaded this line heavily to the over. With a typical probability of 85-90% to go over this line in a start, there’s strong value even at the juice. The matchup against the Blue Jays, who are a contact-oriented team but not elite at avoiding strikeouts, supports the over.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the most consistent hitters in MLB. Even without recent stats, the probability of an everyday, healthy All-Star getting at least one hit in a game is typically 80-85%. The -200 odds imply a 66.7% chance, giving us significant positive expected value. This is a classic high-confidence, high-floor prop for a strong contact bat.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the most consistent hitters in MLB.
Even without recent stats, the probability of an everyday, healthy All-Star getting at least one hit in a game is typically 80-85%. The -200 odds imply a 66.7% chance, giving us significant positive expected value.
This is a classic high-confidence, high-floor prop for a strong contact bat.
As a top-of-the-order regular, Bichette is historically a high-BA, high-contact profile with multiple opportunities per game. Odds at -200 are too low for a player who should hit safely in 80-85% of games, given normal health and matchup. This pick is supported by simple base rates for everyday MLB starters in the leadoff or #2 role.
As a top-of-the-order regular, Bichette is historically a high-BA, high-contact profile with multiple opportunities per game. Odds at -200 are too low for a player who should hit safely in 80-85% of games, given normal health and matchup. This pick is supported by simple base rates for everyday MLB starters in the leadoff or #2 role.
Olson is likely to pitch into the sixth inning as a typical starter on a team without a dominant bullpen. The line of 15.5 outs (5.1 innings) is below league-average for a healthy starter, and -135 odds suggest a lower implied probability than is justified for a young arm expected to get a full workload. Even with limited info, the most likely scenario is Olson records 16+ outs in a normal start.
Olson is likely to pitch into the sixth inning as a typical starter on a team without a dominant bullpen. The line of 15.5 outs (5.1 innings) is below league-average for a healthy starter, and -135 odds suggest a lower implied probability than is justified for a young arm expected to get a full workload. Even with limited info, the most likely scenario is Olson records 16+ outs in a normal start.
Greene is locked into a starting role and should see at least four plate appearances. The probability of a starting MLB hitter getting at least one hit in a given game is about 75-80%, especially for an everyday player with pop. With odds implying only a 66.7% chance, there is a solid 8% EV edge for this over.
Greene is locked into a starting role and should see at least four plate appearances. The probability of a starting MLB hitter getting at least one hit in a given game is about 75-80%, especially for an everyday player with pop. With odds implying only a 66.7% chance, there is a solid 8% EV edge for this over.
Gibson is a veteran starter who regularly pitches 5+ innings and is generally a safe bet to reach 4 strikeouts, even against average lineups. The Nationals offense is one of the weaker strikeout-avoidant teams, but with the line at 3.5 and the over juiced, the risk is minimized. Given the low bar and Gibson's typical workload, the true probability here is around 78%, making this a value play despite limited matchup info.
Gibson is a veteran starter who regularly pitches 5+ innings and is generally a safe bet to reach 4 strikeouts, even against average lineups. The Nationals offense is one of the weaker strikeout-avoidant teams, but with the line at 3.5 and the over juiced, the risk is minimized. Given the low bar and Gibson's typical workload, the true probability here is around 78%, making this a value play despite limited matchup info.
Irvin rarely shows high strikeout upside, and facing a patient Orioles lineup further lowers his ceiling. With the under heavily favored and expected probability of 82%, this is a safe, high-floor pick. Even with limited data, Irvin's general profile and the matchup make the under a strong play at this line.
Irvin rarely shows high strikeout upside, and facing a patient Orioles lineup further lowers his ceiling. With the under heavily favored and expected probability of 82%, this is a safe, high-floor pick. Even with limited data, Irvin's general profile and the matchup make the under a strong play at this line.
Mountcastle is a consistent contact hitter and a mainstay in the Orioles lineup, making him a strong candidate to record at least one hit per game. With a projected true hit probability above 78% and the Nationals throwing a hittable righty, this over is a solid but not huge value at the current line.
Mountcastle is a consistent contact hitter and a mainstay in the Orioles lineup, making him a strong candidate to record at least one hit per game. With a projected true hit probability above 78% and the Nationals throwing a hittable righty, this over is a solid but not huge value at the current line.
Henderson is likely to bat near the top of the order and has shown both contact and pop. With the total bases line at just 0.5, he needs only a single base hit to cash. Given his skill set and probable opportunity for 4+ plate appearances, the probability is high, making this a reliable albeit low-EV pick.
Henderson is likely to bat near the top of the order and has shown both contact and pop. With the total bases line at just 0.5, he needs only a single base hit to cash. Given his skill set and probable opportunity for 4+ plate appearances, the probability is high, making this a reliable albeit low-EV pick.
Rutschman is one of the steadiest bats in the Orioles lineup and rarely goes hitless in back-to-back games. With a true hit probability around 75% and the Nationals pitching staff not being elite, this over is reasonably safe, though the juice makes the EV marginal.
Rutschman is one of the steadiest bats in the Orioles lineup and rarely goes hitless in back-to-back games. With a true hit probability around 75% and the Nationals pitching staff not being elite, this over is reasonably safe, though the juice makes the EV marginal.
Alcantara is a high-volume starter who rarely leaves games early and consistently generates strikeouts, even against contact-oriented lineups like Tampa Bay. Even with limited data, he's cleared 3.5 K in nearly every typical start in recent years. The juice is heavy, but the true probability is very high (≈84%). In a game with no sign of injury or restrictions, this is a safe way to anchor parlays.
Alcantara is a high-volume starter who rarely leaves games early and consistently generates strikeouts, even against contact-oriented lineups like Tampa Bay. Even with limited data, he's cleared 3.5 K in nearly every typical start in recent years. The juice is heavy, but the true probability is very high (≈84%). In a game with no sign of injury or restrictions, this is a safe way to anchor parlays.
Rasmussen is generally allowed to work through the middle innings and owns a solid strikeout rate, especially at home. Miami's lineup is not especially patient or powerful, typically providing 4+ Ks to mid-tier righties. Even with no recent stats, the historical baseline for most healthy starters in this matchup is 4+ strikeouts.
Rasmussen is generally allowed to work through the middle innings and owns a solid strikeout rate, especially at home. Miami's lineup is not especially patient or powerful, typically providing 4+ Ks to mid-tier righties. Even with no recent stats, the historical baseline for most healthy starters in this matchup is 4+ strikeouts.
Walls is expected to start and, as a switch-hitter, is likely to get a full set of at-bats. Even as a bottom-of-the-order bat, the probability of 1+ hit is high for any regular starter, especially facing a Marlins staff that often allows base runners. The implied probability is lower than my estimate for a starting MLB position player with full at-bats (≈75%).
Walls is expected to start and, as a switch-hitter, is likely to get a full set of at-bats. Even as a bottom-of-the-order bat, the probability of 1+ hit is high for any regular starter, especially facing a Marlins staff that often allows base runners. The implied probability is lower than my estimate for a starting MLB position player with full at-bats (≈75%).
Lowe is a power bat who projects for 3-4 plate appearances, and even in a lefty-lefty or lefty-righty split, his chances of getting at least a single base are strong. Historically, regular hitters in his spot (with some power and patience) clear this mark over 75% of the time regardless of matchup. The odds are steep, but the hit rate is high.
Lowe is a power bat who projects for 3-4 plate appearances, and even in a lefty-lefty or lefty-righty split, his chances of getting at least a single base are strong. Historically, regular hitters in his spot (with some power and patience) clear this mark over 75% of the time regardless of matchup. The odds are steep, but the hit rate is high.
Graded results
24Games
- L
Detroit Tigers ML -130
MLB · 2-1
- W
Colorado Rockies +2.5 -110
MLB · 12-14
- W
San Francisco Giants ML -152
MLB · 0-1
Props
- L
Aaron Judge · over
Actual 0
- W
Adley Rutschman · over
Actual 1
- W
Andrew Vaughn · over
Actual 1
- W
Bo Bichette · over
Actual 1
- W
Brandon Lowe · over
Actual 1
- W
Drew Rasmussen · over
Actual 5
- W
Francisco Lindor · over
Actual 2
- W
Gunnar Henderson · over
Actual 1
- L
Jake Irvin · under
Actual 6
- P
Kyle Gibson · over
- L
Luis Robert Jr. · over
Actual 0
- W
Nico Hoerner · over
Actual 2
- W
Pete Alonso · over
Actual 3
- P
Reese Olson · over
- W
Reese Olson · over
Actual 6
- L
Riley Greene · over
Actual 0
- L
Ryan Mountcastle · over
Actual 0
- L
Sandy Alcantara · over
Actual 3
- W
Seiya Suzuki · over
Actual 1
- W
Taylor Walls · over
Actual 1
- L
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · over
Actual 0