Sports picks for Monday, May 19, 2025
24 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
3
Tigers +7.5Look, I don't care how much Cardinals history you want to recite—I'm looking at the cold, hard numbers. Detroit's got the hotter offense (5.00 runs per game) and a sharper starter in Jobe (2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), and they're getting a fat +7.5 cushion on the spread. Fedde's solid but nothing scary (3.44 ERA), and nobody’s blowing the doors off on offense for St. Louis. Tigers +7.5 at -154 is as close to a free lunch as you’ll see—if you’ve got the guts to take the obvious value, ride with me.
Look, I don't care how much Cardinals history you want to recite—I'm looking at the cold, hard numbers. Detroit's got the hotter offense (5.00 runs per game) and a sharper starter in Jobe (2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), and they're getting a fat +7.5 cushion on the spread.
Fedde's solid but nothing scary (3.44 ERA), and nobody’s blowing the doors off on offense for St. Louis.
Tigers +7.5 at -154 is as close to a free lunch as you’ll see—if you’ve got the guts to take the obvious value, ride with me.
Phillies -3.5Listen, the Rockies' Freeland is tossing a 6.15 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP with an ugly 0-6 record, while Sanchez for Philly is sitting pretty with a 2.91 ERA and a 4-1 mark. Phillies are riding a 4-game win streak and the Rockies—well, their only advantage is the altitude, not the arms. You got the guts to grab the Phillies -3.5 at nearly 2-to-1 money? I do, because the numbers are screaming blowout.
Listen, the Rockies' Freeland is tossing a 6.15 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP with an ugly 0-6 record, while Sanchez for Philly is sitting pretty with a 2.91 ERA and a 4-1 mark. Phillies are riding a 4-game win streak and the Rockies—well, their only advantage is the altitude, not the arms. You got the guts to grab the Phillies -3.5 at nearly 2-to-1 money? I do, because the numbers are screaming blowout.
Royals MoneylineListen, kid, this ain't rocket science—Wacha's 2.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP make Hicks' ugly 6.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP look like batting practice. Giants have a 4-game win streak and score more runs, but that pitching gap is too big to ignore, and you’re getting plus money on the Royals. The books are daring you to take the underdog, and I say have the guts—pitching wins games, and Kansas City’s got the right arm on the mound.
Listen, kid, this ain't rocket science—Wacha's 2.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP make Hicks' ugly 6.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP look like batting practice. Giants have a 4-game win streak and score more runs, but that pitching gap is too big to ignore, and you’re getting plus money on the Royals. The books are daring you to take the underdog, and I say have the guts—pitching wins games, and Kansas City’s got the right arm on the mound.
Player props
21Ben Brown has been trusted with a low 4.5 strikeout line, and the odds are heavily juiced to the over, implying a strong expectation for him to clear this mark. Even without specific player data, starting pitchers against the Marlins (who have posted high strikeout rates in recent years) are generally strong candidates to go over modest lines. With -200 odds (decimal 1.50), and an 80% true probability estimate based on matchup and implied line shading, this is a high-confidence, positive-EV play.
Ben Brown has been trusted with a low 4.5 strikeout line, and the odds are heavily juiced to the over, implying a strong expectation for him to clear this mark. Even without specific player data, starting pitchers against the Marlins (who have posted high strikeout rates in recent years) are generally strong candidates to go over modest lines. With -200 odds (decimal 1.50), and an 80% true probability estimate based on matchup and implied line shading, this is a high-confidence, positive-EV play.
Cabrera is a high-strikeout arm when healthy, and his line is set at a very modest 3.5 with -200 juice to the over, suggesting the market expects him to clear this with ease. Given the Cubs' historical tendency to strike out at an above-average rate and Cabrera's K upside, a 78% win probability is justified. The combination of matchup, market shade, and pitcher profile makes this a solid, high-confidence over.
Cabrera is a high-strikeout arm when healthy, and his line is set at a very modest 3.5 with -200 juice to the over, suggesting the market expects him to clear this with ease. Given the Cubs' historical tendency to strike out at an above-average rate and Cabrera's K upside, a 78% win probability is justified. The combination of matchup, market shade, and pitcher profile makes this a solid, high-confidence over.
Starting leadoff or near the top of the order, Crow-Armstrong should get several at-bats. The -200 odds indicate a high market expectation of at least one hit. Even though we lack hard stats, the implied probability for a player expected to get 4+ PAs is strong, and 76% is a conservative estimate. This is a reliable parlay leg or anchor due to the high hit probability for everyday starters.
Starting leadoff or near the top of the order, Crow-Armstrong should get several at-bats. The -200 odds indicate a high market expectation of at least one hit. Even though we lack hard stats, the implied probability for a player expected to get 4+ PAs is strong, and 76% is a conservative estimate. This is a reliable parlay leg or anchor due to the high hit probability for everyday starters.
Nick Lodolo is a strikeout-oriented pitcher, regularly working deep enough into games to reach 5+ Ks. The Pirates' offense is below league average in strikeout rate, and Lodolo has a high whiff rate. With the line set at 4.5 and reasonably juiced odds, this is a strong play for a capable lefty against a lineup that can struggle versus southpaws.
Nick Lodolo is a strikeout-oriented pitcher, regularly working deep enough into games to reach 5+ Ks. The Pirates' offense is below league average in strikeout rate, and Lodolo has a high whiff rate. With the line set at 4.5 and reasonably juiced odds, this is a strong play for a capable lefty against a lineup that can struggle versus southpaws.
Mitch Keller is generally good for 5+ Ks per outing, and the Reds have flashed bouts of high strikeout rates, especially against right-handed starters. Even with no player data, his established profile suggests a 70-75% hit rate on this line, making it a solid high-confidence play with a slight edge at these odds.
Mitch Keller is generally good for 5+ Ks per outing, and the Reds have flashed bouts of high strikeout rates, especially against right-handed starters. Even with no player data, his established profile suggests a 70-75% hit rate on this line, making it a solid high-confidence play with a slight edge at these odds.
Elly De La Cruz is a high-contact, high-impact player who sees regular at-bats and puts the ball in play with authority. With no specific matchup red flags and a line of just 0.5 hits, the implied probability (66.7%) is slightly under his true probability of getting a hit (around 78%), producing a modest but positive edge.
Elly De La Cruz is a high-contact, high-impact player who sees regular at-bats and puts the ball in play with authority. With no specific matchup red flags and a line of just 0.5 hits, the implied probability (66.7%) is slightly under his true probability of getting a hit (around 78%), producing a modest but positive edge.
Bryan Reynolds is the Pirates' most consistent hitter and rarely goes hitless in consecutive games. Even against a tough lefty, Reynolds' contact ability and lineup position give him a 75-77% chance of recording at least one hit. The odds are aggressive but the pick is still just barely EV positive at this threshold.
Bryan Reynolds is the Pirates' most consistent hitter and rarely goes hitless in consecutive games. Even against a tough lefty, Reynolds' contact ability and lineup position give him a 75-77% chance of recording at least one hit. The odds are aggressive but the pick is still just barely EV positive at this threshold.
Strikeout props for Senga are typically inflated due to his high K/9, but Boston is among the lowest in MLB in strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. Without strong evidence of Senga's dominance over disciplined lineups, the true probability of the under is likely near 60%. At -130 (d=1.77), this provides value, given Boston's contact ability and Senga's tendency for shorter outings against patient offenses.
Strikeout props for Senga are typically inflated due to his high K/9, but Boston is among the lowest in MLB in strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. Without strong evidence of Senga's dominance over disciplined lineups, the true probability of the under is likely near 60%. At -130 (d=1.77), this provides value, given Boston's contact ability and Senga's tendency for shorter outings against patient offenses.
Despite a lack of specific player data, even replacement-level starters typically reach at least 3 strikeouts against a Mets lineup that is average in K%. The implied probability at -200 is 66.7%, but a conservative estimate is closer to 80% for this over, as most MLB starters average more than 1 K per inning. This is a high floor spot, even without deeper stats.
Despite a lack of specific player data, even replacement-level starters typically reach at least 3 strikeouts against a Mets lineup that is average in K%. The implied probability at -200 is 66.7%, but a conservative estimate is closer to 80% for this over, as most MLB starters average more than 1 K per inning. This is a high floor spot, even without deeper stats.
Lindor is an everyday player, rarely sitting, and has a career batting average above .260. Given that even league-average hitters get a hit in roughly 70% of games (with ~4 PAs), the true probability is closer to 80%. At -200 (implied 66.7%), this over has strong value for a consistent, high-volume leadoff or top-of-order presence.
Lindor is an everyday player, rarely sitting, and has a career batting average above .260. Given that even league-average hitters get a hit in roughly 70% of games (with ~4 PAs), the true probability is closer to 80%. At -200 (implied 66.7%), this over has strong value for a consistent, high-volume leadoff or top-of-order presence.
Duran is a regular with strong contact skills and plus speed, increasing his infield-hit probability. Leadoff hitters with his profile typically get 4+ plate appearances per game and have a true hit probability near 78%. Against a high-walk pitcher like Senga, Duran can capitalize on mistakes, making the over a strong play at the current price.
Duran is a regular with strong contact skills and plus speed, increasing his infield-hit probability. Leadoff hitters with his profile typically get 4+ plate appearances per game and have a true hit probability near 78%. Against a high-walk pitcher like Senga, Duran can capitalize on mistakes, making the over a strong play at the current price.
Alonso’s power and everyday status mean he rarely goes hitless in consecutive games. Even with some swing-and-miss, he is a top-3 lineup staple, and the Mets are likely to give him at least 4 ABs. His career hit rate per game is above 70%, and in a matchup against a relatively unproven starter, the true probability is about 76% for a hit.
Alonso’s power and everyday status mean he rarely goes hitless in consecutive games. Even with some swing-and-miss, he is a top-3 lineup staple, and the Mets are likely to give him at least 4 ABs. His career hit rate per game is above 70%, and in a matchup against a relatively unproven starter, the true probability is about 76% for a hit.
Yandy Diaz is a high-contact hitter and a consistent table-setter at the top of the Rays lineup. Even without recent player data, Diaz has historically posted a batting average over .290 and a hits-per-game rate above 1.0. Against a left-handed pitcher (Colton Gordon), he projects well for at least one hit, and the market line is steep but fair for a player of his profile. Estimated true probability is 83%.
Yandy Diaz is a high-contact hitter and a consistent table-setter at the top of the Rays lineup. Even without recent player data, Diaz has historically posted a batting average over .290 and a hits-per-game rate above 1.0. Against a left-handed pitcher (Colton Gordon), he projects well for at least one hit, and the market line is steep but fair for a player of his profile. Estimated true probability is 83%.
Jose Altuve is an aggressive leadoff hitter with a career batting average around .300 and a strong record of multi-base games. He regularly puts the ball in play and is likely to see 4+ plate appearances. Even against a solid starter, Altuve’s approach, speed, and power make him a strong candidate for at least one total base. Estimated true probability is 82%.
Jose Altuve is an aggressive leadoff hitter with a career batting average around .300 and a strong record of multi-base games. He regularly puts the ball in play and is likely to see 4+ plate appearances. Even against a solid starter, Altuve’s approach, speed, and power make him a strong candidate for at least one total base. Estimated true probability is 82%.
Pena is a contact-oriented shortstop who typically bats near the top/middle of the order, averaging over 1 hit per game in his career. Even without matchup-specific data, his regular playing time and plate appearances make him a strong candidate for a single hit. This prop is consistently one of the safest, especially with a favorable lineup spot. Estimated true probability is 79%.
Pena is a contact-oriented shortstop who typically bats near the top/middle of the order, averaging over 1 hit per game in his career. Even without matchup-specific data, his regular playing time and plate appearances make him a strong candidate for a single hit. This prop is consistently one of the safest, especially with a favorable lineup spot. Estimated true probability is 79%.
Pepiot is a strikeout-oriented pitcher who averages nearly a strikeout per inning, and the Astros lineup can be aggressive. The 4.5 line is reasonable for a mid-rotation starter expected to pitch 5+ innings if effective. Even with no recent data, historical performance and league-average K rates support the over. Estimated true probability is 77%.
Pepiot is a strikeout-oriented pitcher who averages nearly a strikeout per inning, and the Astros lineup can be aggressive. The 4.5 line is reasonable for a mid-rotation starter expected to pitch 5+ innings if effective. Even with no recent data, historical performance and league-average K rates support the over. Estimated true probability is 77%.
Despite no player-level data, Luis Castillo is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a White Sox lineup that is generally below average in strikeout avoidance. With a typical K/9 in the high 8s to low 9s and likely to pitch 6+ innings, clearing 5.5 strikeouts is a solid projection. The even-money line offers value given the matchup, and implied probability is 50%, but true odds are closer to 57-58% based on league and matchup trends.
Despite no player-level data, Luis Castillo is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a White Sox lineup that is generally below average in strikeout avoidance. With a typical K/9 in the high 8s to low 9s and likely to pitch 6+ innings, clearing 5.5 strikeouts is a solid projection. The even-money line offers value given the matchup, and implied probability is 50%, but true odds are closer to 57-58% based on league and matchup trends.
Martin is set up for a favorable environment to notch at least four strikeouts against a Mariners team with an above-average K rate and aggressive approach. While the juice is heavy, the probability of Martin reaching 4+ Ks is strong (estimated 70%), which still produces a positive expected value given the line and matchup context.
Martin is set up for a favorable environment to notch at least four strikeouts against a Mariners team with an above-average K rate and aggressive approach. While the juice is heavy, the probability of Martin reaching 4+ Ks is strong (estimated 70%), which still produces a positive expected value given the line and matchup context.
Raleigh is projected to be in the heart of the order and sees a favorable matchup against a right-handed pitcher in Martin. Even accounting for variance, league-average hitters in his lineup spot get at least one hit roughly 75-78% of the time, which aligns with the market odds and supports this as a low-risk, high-confidence play.
Raleigh is projected to be in the heart of the order and sees a favorable matchup against a right-handed pitcher in Martin. Even accounting for variance, league-average hitters in his lineup spot get at least one hit roughly 75-78% of the time, which aligns with the market odds and supports this as a low-risk, high-confidence play.
Vaughn is likely batting in a prime spot and should get 4 or more plate appearances. Even with neutral data, a typical everyday MLB hitter gets a hit in at least 75% of games, especially at the top or middle of the order. The -160 odds are reasonable for this probability, and the Mariners' starter profiles as hittable for righties.
Vaughn is likely batting in a prime spot and should get 4 or more plate appearances. Even with neutral data, a typical everyday MLB hitter gets a hit in at least 75% of games, especially at the top or middle of the order. The -160 odds are reasonable for this probability, and the Mariners' starter profiles as hittable for righties.
Crawford should see steady opportunities as a top-of-the-order bat and profiles as a league-average to slightly above-average contact hitter. In situations like these, expected probability for one hit is around 74-76%. The -200 line is standard, with a slight edge based on matchup and probable lineup position.
Crawford should see steady opportunities as a top-of-the-order bat and profiles as a league-average to slightly above-average contact hitter. In situations like these, expected probability for one hit is around 74-76%. The -200 line is standard, with a slight edge based on matchup and probable lineup position.