Sports picks for Tuesday, May 20, 2025
60 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
10
Timberwolves +7.5Look, the Thunder are on a 3-game heater and have been smacking teams around by an average of 111.2 to 100.2, but this spread is a fat one at 7.5. Timberwolves aren’t just rolling over—they're allowing only 104.2 per game and just beat their last opponent by 11. Betting markets are steady, no fishy movement, and with the Wolves' defense, I don’t see OKC running away with this by 8 or more. If you’ve got the guts to take the points, Minnesota +7.5 is the sharp side.
Look, the Thunder are on a 3-game heater and have been smacking teams around by an average of 111.2 to 100.2, but this spread is a fat one at 7.5. Timberwolves aren’t just rolling over—they're allowing only 104.2 per game and just beat their last opponent by 11. Betting markets are steady, no fishy movement, and with the Wolves' defense, I don’t see OKC running away with this by 8 or more. If you’ve got the guts to take the points, Minnesota +7.5 is the sharp side.
Cubs MoneylineLook, I don't need a million fancy stats to see where this is headed—the Cubs are averaging 7 runs per game with a 4-game win streak, while Miami trots out a rookie with just 4.1 MLB innings under his belt. Taillon's 4.53 ERA ain't sparkling, but his WHIP is tidy at 1.11 and he's got experience on his side. Marlins' recent streak is nice, but they're outgunned here; I'll take the Cubs to win outright at -135 with solid confidence. If you want safe money, you ride with the hotter bats—got the guts?
Look, I don't need a million fancy stats to see where this is headed—the Cubs are averaging 7 runs per game with a 4-game win streak, while Miami trots out a rookie with just 4.1 MLB innings under his belt. Taillon's 4.53 ERA ain't sparkling, but his WHIP is tidy at 1.11 and he's got experience on his side. Marlins' recent streak is nice, but they're outgunned here; I'll take the Cubs to win outright at -135 with solid confidence. If you want safe money, you ride with the hotter bats—got the guts?
Red Sox MoneylineLook, the sharpest edge here is that Boston's rolling out Garrett Crochet, who's dealing with a nasty 2.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, while the Mets are sending out Max Kranick, and we've got zero stats on the guy—he's a ghost. The Sox score more runs (4.40) than the Mets (3.80), and at plus money in their own barn, this is value you don't see every day. The market hasn't budged, so the books aren’t sweating Boston, but I am—if you’ve got the guts, ride with the home dog and the only proven arm on the mound.
Look, the sharpest edge here is that Boston's rolling out Garrett Crochet, who's dealing with a nasty 2.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, while the Mets are sending out Max Kranick, and we've got zero stats on the guy—he's a ghost. The Sox score more runs (4.40) than the Mets (3.80), and at plus money in their own barn, this is value you don't see every day. The market hasn't budged, so the books aren’t sweating Boston, but I am—if you’ve got the guts, ride with the home dog and the only proven arm on the mound.
Astros MoneylineI'm not here to sugarcoat it—Hunter Brown's 1.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP make Taj Bradley's 4.80 ERA and 1.34 WHIP look downright pedestrian. Astros are giving up just 3 runs a game, while the Rays allow 4.2, and with dead-even odds, the value sits squarely with Houston's ace. Don't overthink it with missing batter stats—pitching decides this one, and the edge is clear. If you've got the guts, ride with the better arm on the road tonight.
I'm not here to sugarcoat it—Hunter Brown's 1.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP make Taj Bradley's 4.80 ERA and 1.34 WHIP look downright pedestrian. Astros are giving up just 3 runs a game, while the Rays allow 4.2, and with dead-even odds, the value sits squarely with Houston's ace. Don't overthink it with missing batter stats—pitching decides this one, and the edge is clear. If you've got the guts, ride with the better arm on the road tonight.
Rangers +1.5Let me spell it out for you: Jack Leiter's got a 0.90 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP through 10 innings, while the Yankees are tossing out Max Kranick with zero available stats—might as well be rolling dice. Both teams are dead even on offense at 4 runs per game, but the Rangers' starter is the only proven arm here. No line movement means the market's asleep at the wheel. If you've got the guts, back Texas +1.5 and let the Yankees prove something for once.
Let me spell it out for you: Jack Leiter's got a 0.90 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP through 10 innings, while the Yankees are tossing out Max Kranick with zero available stats—might as well be rolling dice. Both teams are dead even on offense at 4 runs per game, but the Rangers' starter is the only proven arm here. No line movement means the market's asleep at the wheel. If you've got the guts, back Texas +1.5 and let the Yankees prove something for once.
Mariners MoneylineLook, I don't need fancy spreadsheets to see the hard truth: Seattle's sending out Luis Castillo (3.20 ERA), who's got a clear edge over Taillon and his 4.53 ERA. White Sox might be at home, but they're coughing up nearly 3 runs per game while only scoring 6.8, but that average is propped up—last game they managed just 1 run. Mariners' bats have been cold, but Castillo's the best arm in this matchup by a mile. The moneyline's chalky, but if you want a winner, you ride with Castillo and don't get cute with the spread.
Look, I don't need fancy spreadsheets to see the hard truth: Seattle's sending out Luis Castillo (3.20 ERA), who's got a clear edge over Taillon and his 4.53 ERA. White Sox might be at home, but they're coughing up nearly 3 runs per game while only scoring 6.8, but that average is propped up—last game they managed just 1 run. Mariners' bats have been cold, but Castillo's the best arm in this matchup by a mile. The moneyline's chalky, but if you want a winner, you ride with Castillo and don't get cute with the spread.
Cardinals +1.5Listen, the Tigers have a hotter arm in Jobe (2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), but he's only logged 20 innings, while Fedde's got a solid 3.44 ERA over 52.1 and the Redbirds are riding a 2-game win streak. Cards put up 4.6 runs a game and get a run and a half at home against a Detroit lineup that isn't exactly blowing teams out; that’s value. No funny business with the line movement, and with St. Louis’ bats at home, I’ll take the run cushion—if you’ve got the guts to ride with me, take the Cardinals +1.5.
Listen, the Tigers have a hotter arm in Jobe (2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), but he's only logged 20 innings, while Fedde's got a solid 3.44 ERA over 52.1 and the Redbirds are riding a 2-game win streak. Cards put up 4.6 runs a game and get a run and a half at home against a Detroit lineup that isn't exactly blowing teams out; that’s value. No funny business with the line movement, and with St. Louis’ bats at home, I’ll take the run cushion—if you’ve got the guts to ride with me, take the Cardinals +1.5.
Phillies -1.5Look, I don’t need a spreadsheet the size of a phone book to see what’s happening here—Freeland’s 5.68 ERA and 1.60 WHIP is a recipe for disaster against a Phillies squad riding a 4-game winning streak. Sanchez is dealing with a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, which is a clear step above, and the Rockies’ only edge is playing at home, which won’t save ‘em tonight. Phillies -1.5 is the only pick with teeth, even if you gotta pay for it, and I’d be surprised if Colorado keeps it close unless Philly falls asleep at the wheel. The numbers tell you who to trust; the question is, do you have the guts to follow through?
Look, I don’t need a spreadsheet the size of a phone book to see what’s happening here—Freeland’s 5.68 ERA and 1.60 WHIP is a recipe for disaster against a Phillies squad riding a 4-game winning streak. Sanchez is dealing with a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, which is a clear step above, and the Rockies’ only edge is playing at home, which won’t save ‘em tonight. Phillies -1.5 is the only pick with teeth, even if you gotta pay for it, and I’d be surprised if Colorado keeps it close unless Philly falls asleep at the wheel. The numbers tell you who to trust; the question is, do you have the guts to follow through?
Royals MoneylineLook, I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to make money—and the numbers say the Royals are the only dog with any real bite tonight. Wacha's 2.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP run circles around Hicks' ugly 6.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and Kansas City is actually giving up fewer runs per game despite their weak bats. Giants are riding a streak, but sooner or later, a pitcher this shaky gets burned—if you’ve got the guts, take the better arm at plus money.
Look, I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to make money—and the numbers say the Royals are the only dog with any real bite tonight. Wacha's 2.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP run circles around Hicks' ugly 6.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and Kansas City is actually giving up fewer runs per game despite their weak bats. Giants are riding a streak, but sooner or later, a pitcher this shaky gets burned—if you’ve got the guts, take the better arm at plus money.
Athletics MoneylineLook, the A's are steamrolling with a 5-game win streak and are outscoring opponents 8.2 to 1.6 on average—those are grown-man numbers, not some fluke. The Angels can hit, but their pitching is shaky (5.6 runs allowed per game), and even with Anderson's solid 3.04 ERA, that bullpen's a leaky faucet. The moneyline is the only play here, even at -156—don't get greedy with the run line, just take the win and collect. If you’ve got the backbone for a straight-shooter’s pick, ride with me.
Look, the A's are steamrolling with a 5-game win streak and are outscoring opponents 8.2 to 1.6 on average—those are grown-man numbers, not some fluke. The Angels can hit, but their pitching is shaky (5.6 runs allowed per game), and even with Anderson's solid 3.04 ERA, that bullpen's a leaky faucet. The moneyline is the only play here, even at -156—don't get greedy with the run line, just take the win and collect. If you’ve got the backbone for a straight-shooter’s pick, ride with me.
Player props
46Ryan Weathers is positioned well to surpass 3.5 strikeouts. His pitch arsenal and stamina have consistently kept him in games long enough to rack up at least 4 strikeouts. The Chicago Cubs lineup has several hitters with high strikeout rates, which increases the likelihood of Weathers clearing this mark. With strong matchup factors and his recent form, this over is a high-confidence play.
Ryan Weathers is positioned well to surpass 3.5 strikeouts. His pitch arsenal and stamina have consistently kept him in games long enough to rack up at least 4 strikeouts. The Chicago Cubs lineup has several hitters with high strikeout rates, which increases the likelihood of Weathers clearing this mark. With strong matchup factors and his recent form, this over is a high-confidence play.
Seiya Suzuki is one of the most consistent contact hitters in the Chicago Cubs lineup. He frequently gets on base and rarely goes hitless in back-to-back games. Suzuki’s approach at the plate makes him a dependable choice to tally at least one hit, especially facing a Marlins pitching staff that has allowed steady contact to right-handed bats.
Seiya Suzuki is one of the most consistent contact hitters in the Chicago Cubs lineup. He frequently gets on base and rarely goes hitless in back-to-back games. Suzuki’s approach at the plate makes him a dependable choice to tally at least one hit, especially facing a Marlins pitching staff that has allowed steady contact to right-handed bats.
Matt Mervis has shown a strong ability to put the ball in play when he gets the opportunity. His power can also translate to single-base hits, and he’s likely to get at least one favorable matchup against the Marlins bullpen. Given the relatively generous odds and Mervis' tendency to avoid prolonged hitless streaks, this is a strong value play.
Matt Mervis has shown a strong ability to put the ball in play when he gets the opportunity. His power can also translate to single-base hits, and he’s likely to get at least one favorable matchup against the Marlins bullpen. Given the relatively generous odds and Mervis' tendency to avoid prolonged hitless streaks, this is a strong value play.
Dansby Swanson is a reliable contributor in the Cubs lineup and excels at finding ways to reach base, whether via singles, doubles, or extra-base hits. He maintains a high contact rate and is unlikely to be shut out by Miami’s pitching staff. Swanson’s ability to capitalize on weaker pitching makes this a high-likelihood outcome.
Dansby Swanson is a reliable contributor in the Cubs lineup and excels at finding ways to reach base, whether via singles, doubles, or extra-base hits. He maintains a high contact rate and is unlikely to be shut out by Miami’s pitching staff. Swanson’s ability to capitalize on weaker pitching makes this a high-likelihood outcome.
Ryan Weathers has demonstrated the endurance to consistently work into the fifth inning or later in his starts. The Marlins tend to let him work through trouble, and against a Cubs lineup that doesn’t chase him early, he's well-positioned to notch at least 15 outs. This prop provides solid value given his recent workload and the bullpen usage trends.
Ryan Weathers has demonstrated the endurance to consistently work into the fifth inning or later in his starts. The Marlins tend to let him work through trouble, and against a Cubs lineup that doesn’t chase him early, he's well-positioned to notch at least 15 outs. This prop provides solid value given his recent workload and the bullpen usage trends.
Bailey Falter has consistently worked deep enough into games to threaten this strikeout line, especially against teams with high strikeout tendencies. The market is heavily juiced to the over, suggesting strong underlying support for Falter to reach four punchouts. Given his ability to generate swings and misses and likely pitch usage, the matchup sets up for a solid chance to clear this number. The true probability of him hitting at least four strikeouts is estimated at 74%.
Bailey Falter has consistently worked deep enough into games to threaten this strikeout line, especially against teams with high strikeout tendencies. The market is heavily juiced to the over, suggesting strong underlying support for Falter to reach four punchouts. Given his ability to generate swings and misses and likely pitch usage, the matchup sets up for a solid chance to clear this number. The true probability of him hitting at least four strikeouts is estimated at 74%.
Nick Martinez tends to pitch to contact and has generally struggled to rack up strikeouts at higher lines, especially against patient lineups. This line is set at a challenging number for his usual workload and strikeout profile. The Pirates' offense, while inconsistent, doesn't provide a significant boost to strikeout upside. Estimated true probability for the under is 70%.
Nick Martinez tends to pitch to contact and has generally struggled to rack up strikeouts at higher lines, especially against patient lineups. This line is set at a challenging number for his usual workload and strikeout profile. The Pirates' offense, while inconsistent, doesn't provide a significant boost to strikeout upside. Estimated true probability for the under is 70%.
Adam Frazier profiles as a strong contact hitter who excels at getting on base, particularly against right-handed pitching. He’s well-positioned to reach base at least once, given his approach and the likely number of plate appearances. The price offers value given his consistency in the hits department, with a true probability of 68% to record at least one hit.
Adam Frazier profiles as a strong contact hitter who excels at getting on base, particularly against right-handed pitching. He’s well-positioned to reach base at least once, given his approach and the likely number of plate appearances. The price offers value given his consistency in the hits department, with a true probability of 68% to record at least one hit.
Connor Joe has maintained a steady on-base presence, showing the ability to make hard contact and hit for average in favorable splits. Facing a pitcher like Nick Martinez, Joe should see good pitches to hit, further increasing the likelihood of a base knock. Probability of at least one hit comes in at 65%, making this a positive value play at the current price.
Connor Joe has maintained a steady on-base presence, showing the ability to make hard contact and hit for average in favorable splits. Facing a pitcher like Nick Martinez, Joe should see good pitches to hit, further increasing the likelihood of a base knock. Probability of at least one hit comes in at 65%, making this a positive value play at the current price.
Falter’s strikeout floor is high due to his pitch mix and the likelihood that he faces the bottom half of the Reds' order multiple times. With three strikeouts as the hurdle and his expected pitch count, he’s well-positioned to surpass this mark. The estimated true probability is 82% for hitting at least three strikeouts in this matchup.
Falter’s strikeout floor is high due to his pitch mix and the likelihood that he faces the bottom half of the Reds' order multiple times. With three strikeouts as the hurdle and his expected pitch count, he’s well-positioned to surpass this mark. The estimated true probability is 82% for hitting at least three strikeouts in this matchup.
Austin Riley has been a consistent contact hitter and is regularly slotted in a favorable spot in one of MLB’s most productive lineups. Given his strong plate discipline and the Nationals’ pitching staff being below league average, Riley’s probability of recording at least one hit is high. At a confidence of 84%, the implied probability is still favorable versus the market line, making this an EV+ play. His situational and matchup consistency make the over on 0.5 hits a strong foundational prop.
Austin Riley has been a consistent contact hitter and is regularly slotted in a favorable spot in one of MLB’s most productive lineups. Given his strong plate discipline and the Nationals’ pitching staff being below league average, Riley’s probability of recording at least one hit is high. At a confidence of 84%, the implied probability is still favorable versus the market line, making this an EV+ play. His situational and matchup consistency make the over on 0.5 hits a strong foundational prop.
Ruiz provides solid contact skills and rarely strikes out, giving him a high chance of reaching base safely at least once. Despite facing a tough pitcher in Strider, his approach and ability to put balls in play keep his hit probability elevated at 81%. The -192 line is still exploitable given this edge, producing a positive EV.
Ruiz provides solid contact skills and rarely strikes out, giving him a high chance of reaching base safely at least once. Despite facing a tough pitcher in Strider, his approach and ability to put balls in play keep his hit probability elevated at 81%. The -192 line is still exploitable given this edge, producing a positive EV.
Duran has established himself as a consistent top-of-the-order hitter, routinely making contact and generating base hits. Batting leadoff, he benefits from more plate appearances and has demonstrated strong on-base skills throughout the season. Duran has excelled at taking advantage of right-handed pitching, and his speed helps convert borderline infield plays into hits. Given the favorable matchup and his high contact rate, the over on 0.5 hits is well-supported.
Duran has established himself as a consistent top-of-the-order hitter, routinely making contact and generating base hits. Batting leadoff, he benefits from more plate appearances and has demonstrated strong on-base skills throughout the season. Duran has excelled at taking advantage of right-handed pitching, and his speed helps convert borderline infield plays into hits. Given the favorable matchup and his high contact rate, the over on 0.5 hits is well-supported.
Lindor remains a reliable presence in the Mets lineup, consistently producing base hits from both sides of the plate. He has a history of coming through in key spots and rarely gets shut out, especially at home. Lindor has maintained solid contact metrics and frequently puts the ball in play, increasing his chances to collect at least one hit. The over on 0.5 hits is strongly favored given his consistency and role in the batting order.
Lindor remains a reliable presence in the Mets lineup, consistently producing base hits from both sides of the plate. He has a history of coming through in key spots and rarely gets shut out, especially at home. Lindor has maintained solid contact metrics and frequently puts the ball in play, increasing his chances to collect at least one hit. The over on 0.5 hits is strongly favored given his consistency and role in the batting order.
Devers has been one of Boston’s most dependable hitters, showing both power and a high contact rate in the middle of the order. His ability to hit for average and power against a variety of pitching styles gives him an edge in this matchup. Devers consistently produces multi-hit games and rarely goes hitless in back-to-back contests, making the over on 0.5 hits a strong selection.
Devers has been one of Boston’s most dependable hitters, showing both power and a high contact rate in the middle of the order. His ability to hit for average and power against a variety of pitching styles gives him an edge in this matchup. Devers consistently produces multi-hit games and rarely goes hitless in back-to-back contests, making the over on 0.5 hits a strong selection.
Littell has demonstrated consistent strikeout ability, regularly surpassing the 3.5 K mark in recent starts. Houston’s lineup strikes out at a moderate rate, and Littell’s pitch count and efficiency support his chances to work deep enough to hit this number. His command and swing-and-miss stuff play well against this Astros roster. Projecting a 65% chance he gets at least 4 strikeouts, which offers solid value at this price.
Littell has demonstrated consistent strikeout ability, regularly surpassing the 3.5 K mark in recent starts. Houston’s lineup strikes out at a moderate rate, and Littell’s pitch count and efficiency support his chances to work deep enough to hit this number. His command and swing-and-miss stuff play well against this Astros roster. Projecting a 65% chance he gets at least 4 strikeouts, which offers solid value at this price.
Walter profiles as more of a pitch-to-contact arm, and the Tampa Bay Rays are disciplined with a below-average strikeout rate against lefties. He has not shown high K upside, and the Rays' plate approach should keep his strikeout total in check. Walter’s recent outings suggest a 70% chance he stays under 4 strikeouts, making this under a strong, high-floor play.
Walter profiles as more of a pitch-to-contact arm, and the Tampa Bay Rays are disciplined with a below-average strikeout rate against lefties. He has not shown high K upside, and the Rays' plate approach should keep his strikeout total in check. Walter’s recent outings suggest a 70% chance he stays under 4 strikeouts, making this under a strong, high-floor play.
Diaz is a high-contact hitter with strong on-base skills and a consistent approach, making him a strong candidate for at least one hit in nearly any matchup. He's rarely held hitless in back-to-back games and should see favorable pitching matchups against Houston’s probable starter. With an 80%+ probability of logging a hit, the price is justified and still offers positive expected value.
Diaz is a high-contact hitter with strong on-base skills and a consistent approach, making him a strong candidate for at least one hit in nearly any matchup. He's rarely held hitless in back-to-back games and should see favorable pitching matchups against Houston’s probable starter. With an 80%+ probability of logging a hit, the price is justified and still offers positive expected value.
Pena is a steady contact bat who frequently puts the ball in play and is a good bet to reach base via hit. He matches up well against Tampa Bay pitching and typically starts toward the top of the order, maximizing plate appearances. Given his consistency, there's a strong chance he collects at least one hit in this spot.
Pena is a steady contact bat who frequently puts the ball in play and is a good bet to reach base via hit. He matches up well against Tampa Bay pitching and typically starts toward the top of the order, maximizing plate appearances. Given his consistency, there's a strong chance he collects at least one hit in this spot.
Judge is a premier run scorer with elite on-base skills and regularly bats in the heart of a potent Yankees lineup, maximizing his scoring chances. He consistently posts high run totals, especially when facing teams with average pitching. Given his plate discipline and power, he is likely to get on base multiple times, increasing the probability of scoring at least one run. With a strong supporting cast, Judge is in an ideal spot to cross the plate at least once.
Judge is a premier run scorer with elite on-base skills and regularly bats in the heart of a potent Yankees lineup, maximizing his scoring chances. He consistently posts high run totals, especially when facing teams with average pitching. Given his plate discipline and power, he is likely to get on base multiple times, increasing the probability of scoring at least one run. With a strong supporting cast, Judge is in an ideal spot to cross the plate at least once.
Heim is a switch-hitter with steady production and is likely to contribute in at least one of the major counting categories—hit, run, or RBI—given his position in the Rangers lineup. His ability to make consistent contact and drive in runs makes the 0.5 line very attainable. With his involvement in the heart of the order, Heim is positioned to impact the box score in multiple ways, making this a high-probability, high-floor prop.
Heim is a switch-hitter with steady production and is likely to contribute in at least one of the major counting categories—hit, run, or RBI—given his position in the Rangers lineup. His ability to make consistent contact and drive in runs makes the 0.5 line very attainable. With his involvement in the heart of the order, Heim is positioned to impact the box score in multiple ways, making this a high-probability, high-floor prop.
Jung is a consistent threat for at least a single each game, and his power gives him upside for extra bases as well. He is a regular in the Rangers' everyday lineup and often makes hard contact, resulting in frequent base hits. The 0.5 total bases line is extremely low for a hitter with his profile and contact rates, making the over a strong, high-confidence play.
Jung is a consistent threat for at least a single each game, and his power gives him upside for extra bases as well. He is a regular in the Rangers' everyday lineup and often makes hard contact, resulting in frequent base hits. The 0.5 total bases line is extremely low for a hitter with his profile and contact rates, making the over a strong, high-confidence play.
Burger has demonstrated an ability to put the ball in play with regularity and has a knack for finding holes in the defense. His aggressive approach and favorable spot in the batting order increase his likelihood of recording at least one hit. While not a classic contact hitter, his power and tendency to swing early in counts make him a good bet to tally at least one hit in this matchup.
Burger has demonstrated an ability to put the ball in play with regularity and has a knack for finding holes in the defense. His aggressive approach and favorable spot in the batting order increase his likelihood of recording at least one hit. While not a classic contact hitter, his power and tendency to swing early in counts make him a good bet to tally at least one hit in this matchup.
Chris Bassitt is consistently effective at generating strikeouts, often eclipsing the 5-strikeout mark against lineups with moderate swing-and-miss rates. His expected pitch count and ability to work deep into games give him ample opportunities to surpass this line. The matchup with the Padres projects as neutral to slightly favorable for strikeouts, supporting an over. At -118 odds, this line offers strong value for a pitcher with Bassitt's profile and consistency.
Chris Bassitt is consistently effective at generating strikeouts, often eclipsing the 5-strikeout mark against lineups with moderate swing-and-miss rates. His expected pitch count and ability to work deep into games give him ample opportunities to surpass this line. The matchup with the Padres projects as neutral to slightly favorable for strikeouts, supporting an over. At -118 odds, this line offers strong value for a pitcher with Bassitt's profile and consistency.
Dylan Cease is known for his high strikeout upside and has routinely posted 6+ strikeouts per start, especially at home. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that can be aggressive early in counts, Cease’s stuff should play well. With a projected strikeout rate well above the line and odds at -110, the over carries a solid expected value and aligns with Cease’s established form.
Dylan Cease is known for his high strikeout upside and has routinely posted 6+ strikeouts per start, especially at home. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that can be aggressive early in counts, Cease’s stuff should play well. With a projected strikeout rate well above the line and odds at -110, the over carries a solid expected value and aligns with Cease’s established form.
Bo Bichette is a consistent contact hitter, regularly producing at least one hit per game. His skillset matches well against most right-handed pitching, and his high batting average makes this 0.5 line highly attainable. Bichette’s approach and role atop the order give him multiple chances to cash this prop. Though the odds are steep at -200, the high probability keeps the EV positive.
Bo Bichette is a consistent contact hitter, regularly producing at least one hit per game. His skillset matches well against most right-handed pitching, and his high batting average makes this 0.5 line highly attainable. Bichette’s approach and role atop the order give him multiple chances to cash this prop. Though the odds are steep at -200, the high probability keeps the EV positive.
Luis Arraez is one of baseball’s premier contact hitters, rarely going hitless in back-to-back games. His elite bat-to-ball skills and high on-base rate make him extremely likely to record at least one hit. The Blue Jays’ pitching matchup is unlikely to faze him, and with -200 odds, the true probability suggests a positive expected value.
Luis Arraez is one of baseball’s premier contact hitters, rarely going hitless in back-to-back games. His elite bat-to-ball skills and high on-base rate make him extremely likely to record at least one hit. The Blue Jays’ pitching matchup is unlikely to faze him, and with -200 odds, the true probability suggests a positive expected value.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is a dynamic leadoff presence with high on-base skills and speed, increasing his chances to score. He often sets the tone for the Padres’ offense and benefits from the strong hitters behind him. With a projected run probability above baseline and -136 odds, the over on 0.5 runs offers solid expected value for a player of his caliber.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is a dynamic leadoff presence with high on-base skills and speed, increasing his chances to score. He often sets the tone for the Padres’ offense and benefits from the strong hitters behind him. With a projected run probability above baseline and -136 odds, the over on 0.5 runs offers solid expected value for a player of his caliber.
Logan Henderson is a high-strikeout pitcher and frequently pitches deep enough into games to comfortably clear 4.5 strikeouts, especially against a Baltimore Orioles lineup that can be prone to swing-and-miss performances. The market's heavy juice to the over reflects this edge, and his recent trends support strong K totals when working through at least five innings. The true probability for him to surpass this mark is estimated at 78%, offering a solid return even at the short price.
Logan Henderson is a high-strikeout pitcher and frequently pitches deep enough into games to comfortably clear 4.5 strikeouts, especially against a Baltimore Orioles lineup that can be prone to swing-and-miss performances. The market's heavy juice to the over reflects this edge, and his recent trends support strong K totals when working through at least five innings. The true probability for him to surpass this mark is estimated at 78%, offering a solid return even at the short price.
Jackson Holliday is making consistent contact and is expected to hit in a favorable lineup spot, increasing his chances for at least one hit. The matchup projects him for four plate appearances, and his recent approach at the plate demonstrates discipline and good bat-to-ball skills. An 75% true probability for at least one hit makes the over a value play despite the heavy juice.
Jackson Holliday is making consistent contact and is expected to hit in a favorable lineup spot, increasing his chances for at least one hit. The matchup projects him for four plate appearances, and his recent approach at the plate demonstrates discipline and good bat-to-ball skills. An 75% true probability for at least one hit makes the over a value play despite the heavy juice.
Adley Rutschman typically hits in the heart of the Baltimore Orioles lineup and consistently puts balls in play, making him a strong candidate for at least one hit. His plate skills and consistency against both lefties and righties support a true probability of 74% or higher to record a hit. Given his matchup and hitting environment, the over provides a positive expected value.
Adley Rutschman typically hits in the heart of the Baltimore Orioles lineup and consistently puts balls in play, making him a strong candidate for at least one hit. His plate skills and consistency against both lefties and righties support a true probability of 74% or higher to record a hit. Given his matchup and hitting environment, the over provides a positive expected value.
Christian Yelich offers a strong floor with his ability to reach base via both hits and walks, but for total bases, his extra-base hit potential further enhances this play. He’s projected for multiple plate appearances and typically cashes this with a single, making the true probability near 73%. With solid odds and Yelich’s on-base consistency, this is a high-floor prop.
Christian Yelich offers a strong floor with his ability to reach base via both hits and walks, but for total bases, his extra-base hit potential further enhances this play. He’s projected for multiple plate appearances and typically cashes this with a single, making the true probability near 73%. With solid odds and Yelich’s on-base consistency, this is a high-floor prop.
Ryan O'Hearn is expected to be in a strong offensive position in the Baltimore Orioles lineup and has shown the ability to record hits against both left- and right-handed pitching. With a projected 70% true probability to get at least one hit and a favorable price, this prop offers a good balance of risk and reward.
Ryan O'Hearn is expected to be in a strong offensive position in the Baltimore Orioles lineup and has shown the ability to record hits against both left- and right-handed pitching. With a projected 70% true probability to get at least one hit and a favorable price, this prop offers a good balance of risk and reward.
Dylan Moore has a favorable matchup and is known for his contact skills and ability to reach base. He consistently puts the ball in play, and even a single will cash this prop. The Mariners lineup gives him protection, increasing his chances to see hittable pitches. At -155, the probability implied by the odds is lower than his realistic chance to reach at least one base.
Dylan Moore has a favorable matchup and is known for his contact skills and ability to reach base. He consistently puts the ball in play, and even a single will cash this prop. The Mariners lineup gives him protection, increasing his chances to see hittable pitches. At -155, the probability implied by the odds is lower than his realistic chance to reach at least one base.
Rowdy Tellez is a left-handed power hitter who matches up well against right-handed pitching, and he is consistently in the heart of the Mariners order. His ability to produce base hits, especially singles and doubles, is strong relative to the implied probability of -145. Given his recent form and the White Sox pitching, the expected value is positive.
Rowdy Tellez is a left-handed power hitter who matches up well against right-handed pitching, and he is consistently in the heart of the Mariners order. His ability to produce base hits, especially singles and doubles, is strong relative to the implied probability of -145. Given his recent form and the White Sox pitching, the expected value is positive.
J.P. Crawford's on-base skills and leadoff role make him a high-percentage play for at least one total base. He is a patient hitter who can reach base via a hit or take advantage of infield singles. With his contact rate and matchup, the over is a strong value even at -200.
J.P. Crawford's on-base skills and leadoff role make him a high-percentage play for at least one total base. He is a patient hitter who can reach base via a hit or take advantage of infield singles. With his contact rate and matchup, the over is a strong value even at -200.
Cal Raleigh's switch-hitting ability and recent uptick in plate discipline give him an edge for at least one hit. He tends to put the ball in play against righties, and the White Sox staff is not especially dominant. The -175 odds still offer value based on his expected contact rate and lineup position.
Cal Raleigh's switch-hitting ability and recent uptick in plate discipline give him an edge for at least one hit. He tends to put the ball in play against righties, and the White Sox staff is not especially dominant. The -175 odds still offer value based on his expected contact rate and lineup position.
Chris Paddack has a strong track record of consistently reaching at least 4 strikeouts per start, especially against lineups with above-average strikeout rates like the Cleveland Guardians. Paddack’s strikeout stuff plays well early in games, and with a tight line and negative odds, the over is well supported by his typical workload and pitch count. With a true probability estimate of 77%, the EV is highly positive.
Chris Paddack has a strong track record of consistently reaching at least 4 strikeouts per start, especially against lineups with above-average strikeout rates like the Cleveland Guardians. Paddack’s strikeout stuff plays well early in games, and with a tight line and negative odds, the over is well supported by his typical workload and pitch count. With a true probability estimate of 77%, the EV is highly positive.
Gavin Williams faces a Minnesota Twins lineup that generally makes good contact and does not strike out at an above-average rate. Williams’ recent outings show a tendency to work efficiently but rarely eclipse six strikeouts, and the Twins’ approach at the plate should suppress his upside. At a true probability of 70% to the under, the line is set aggressively and the value is on the under.
Gavin Williams faces a Minnesota Twins lineup that generally makes good contact and does not strike out at an above-average rate. Williams’ recent outings show a tendency to work efficiently but rarely eclipse six strikeouts, and the Twins’ approach at the plate should suppress his upside. At a true probability of 70% to the under, the line is set aggressively and the value is on the under.
Jose Ramirez is one of the most consistent hitters in the league, regularly producing at least one hit per game. He excels as a switch hitter and matches up well against most right-handed pitching, which increases the likelihood of him reaching this line. With a true probability of 88%, there is still a positive expected value even at the short odds.
Jose Ramirez is one of the most consistent hitters in the league, regularly producing at least one hit per game. He excels as a switch hitter and matches up well against most right-handed pitching, which increases the likelihood of him reaching this line. With a true probability of 88%, there is still a positive expected value even at the short odds.
Ryan Jeffers has been delivering consistent contact and is a strong bet to get at least one hit, particularly against a Guardians pitching staff that allows regular base runners. Jeffers’ recent form and expected spot in the order make the over appealing, with a true probability set at approximately 80%.
Ryan Jeffers has been delivering consistent contact and is a strong bet to get at least one hit, particularly against a Guardians pitching staff that allows regular base runners. Jeffers’ recent form and expected spot in the order make the over appealing, with a true probability set at approximately 80%.
Daniel Schneemann profiles as a low-power, low-extra-base hitter, and the Twins’ pitching staff is unlikely to allow him to surpass this total base line. His recent games show a pattern of singles with very few multi-base hits, supporting a high probability on the under. At approximately 85% probability, this under is a strong value.
Daniel Schneemann profiles as a low-power, low-extra-base hitter, and the Twins’ pitching staff is unlikely to allow him to surpass this total base line. His recent games show a pattern of singles with very few multi-base hits, supporting a high probability on the under. At approximately 85% probability, this under is a strong value.
Tarik Skubal has consistently shown strong strikeout ability, often surpassing 6 strikeouts per start this season. The Cardinals have a tendency to struggle against left-handed pitching, which further bolsters Skubal’s upside in this matchup. His recent form has been sharp, with a high strikeout rate and excellent command, making the over a high-probability play. The line at 5.5 is conservative given Skubal’s dominance and the matchup factors.
Tarik Skubal has consistently shown strong strikeout ability, often surpassing 6 strikeouts per start this season. The Cardinals have a tendency to struggle against left-handed pitching, which further bolsters Skubal’s upside in this matchup. His recent form has been sharp, with a high strikeout rate and excellent command, making the over a high-probability play. The line at 5.5 is conservative given Skubal’s dominance and the matchup factors.
Contreras faces a tough lefty in Skubal, who has limited right-handed power all year. Contreras has not been a frequent home run hitter recently, and Detroit's park suppresses right-handed home run power. With Skubal’s ability to avoid barrels, the under is highly probable here. The -200 odds reflect the low likelihood, but the projection supports this as a solid EV play.
Contreras faces a tough lefty in Skubal, who has limited right-handed power all year. Contreras has not been a frequent home run hitter recently, and Detroit's park suppresses right-handed home run power. With Skubal’s ability to avoid barrels, the under is highly probable here. The -200 odds reflect the low likelihood, but the projection supports this as a solid EV play.
Carpenter has been a steady contact bat for Detroit and regularly puts the ball in play against right-handed pitching. He’s projected to hit in the heart of the Tigers’ lineup, giving him multiple opportunities to collect a hit. With his consistency and favorable matchup, the over 0.5 hits is a strong, high-floor option.
Carpenter has been a steady contact bat for Detroit and regularly puts the ball in play against right-handed pitching. He’s projected to hit in the heart of the Tigers’ lineup, giving him multiple opportunities to collect a hit. With his consistency and favorable matchup, the over 0.5 hits is a strong, high-floor option.
Fedde’s strikeout rate is up over the last month and the Tigers’ offense has shown a high strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. Fedde has been efficient at working deep into games, giving him ample opportunities to reach at least 5 strikeouts. The matchup and recent performance trends point toward the over as a strong value.
Fedde’s strikeout rate is up over the last month and the Tigers’ offense has shown a high strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. Fedde has been efficient at working deep into games, giving him ample opportunities to reach at least 5 strikeouts. The matchup and recent performance trends point toward the over as a strong value.
Graded results
4Games
- L
Houston Astros ML -108
MLB · 5-3
- W
Seattle Mariners ML -175
MLB · 5-3
- W
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 -110
MLB · 3-4
- L
Kansas City Royals ML +124
MLB · 1-3