Sports picks for Wednesday, May 21, 2025
13 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
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Knicks -4.5Listen, the Knicks are riding a 3-game heater and just steamrolled their last opponent 119-81, while Indiana comes in after a 105-114 loss and sports a leaky defense giving up 118 per game. New York’s holding teams to just 100.4 points on average, and at the Garden, that edge only gets sharper. I’m not here to play it safe—Knicks -4.5 at -105 is the side with real muscle, and if you’ve got the guts, you’ll ride with me on the bully in the blue and orange.
Listen, the Knicks are riding a 3-game heater and just steamrolled their last opponent 119-81, while Indiana comes in after a 105-114 loss and sports a leaky defense giving up 118 per game. New York’s holding teams to just 100.4 points on average, and at the Garden, that edge only gets sharper. I’m not here to play it safe—Knicks -4.5 at -105 is the side with real muscle, and if you’ve got the guts, you’ll ride with me on the bully in the blue and orange.
Thunder -7.5Listen kid, Oklahoma City is running hot with a 3-game winning streak and just blasted their last opponent by 32 points, while Minnesota barely scraped by with a single win and is putting up fewer points per game. The Thunder are scoring 4.6 more per night than the Wolves and their defense is stingier by a full 4 points. Lay the -7.5 at -105 and don't blink—if you want to win, you ride with the side that's got both firepower and momentum.
Listen kid, Oklahoma City is running hot with a 3-game winning streak and just blasted their last opponent by 32 points, while Minnesota barely scraped by with a single win and is putting up fewer points per game. The Thunder are scoring 4.6 more per night than the Wolves and their defense is stingier by a full 4 points. Lay the -7.5 at -105 and don't blink—if you want to win, you ride with the side that's got both firepower and momentum.
Player props
10Hoskins is a power hitter who rarely produces multi-single games, especially on the road against a quality pitching staff. Most of his hits are for extra bases, and the likelihood of him recording two or more singles in this matchup is extremely low. With a projected true probability of 0.99 for the under, this is a safe prop with a small but positive expected value.
Hoskins is a power hitter who rarely produces multi-single games, especially on the road against a quality pitching staff. Most of his hits are for extra bases, and the likelihood of him recording two or more singles in this matchup is extremely low. With a projected true probability of 0.99 for the under, this is a safe prop with a small but positive expected value.
Eric Haase is likely to hit in the lower third of the order and has struggled to consistently reach base or drive in runs. Facing a tough Orioles staff, the probability of him going hitless and runless is high. With an estimated 0.96 chance of staying under 0.5, this prop is a strong low-risk play for parlay or bankroll protection purposes.
Eric Haase is likely to hit in the lower third of the order and has struggled to consistently reach base or drive in runs. Facing a tough Orioles staff, the probability of him going hitless and runless is high. With an estimated 0.96 chance of staying under 0.5, this prop is a strong low-risk play for parlay or bankroll protection purposes.
Hoskins rarely accumulates five or more combined hits, runs, and RBIs in a single game, given his typical stat distribution and batting order position. The Orioles’ pitching staff has effectively limited power hitters at home, further reducing his ceiling. Projected true probability is 0.92 for the under, making this a strong play despite the high juice. The conservative nature of this line and matchup dynamics both favor the under.
Hoskins rarely accumulates five or more combined hits, runs, and RBIs in a single game, given his typical stat distribution and batting order position. The Orioles’ pitching staff has effectively limited power hitters at home, further reducing his ceiling. Projected true probability is 0.92 for the under, making this a strong play despite the high juice. The conservative nature of this line and matchup dynamics both favor the under.
Jung Hoo Lee profiles as a high-contact leadoff hitter with consistent plate discipline. His on-base skills and propensity to put the ball in play make him a strong candidate for at least one hit per game, especially at the top of the order where extra at-bats are likely. Given the matchup, he should be able to capitalize on early-inning opportunities. The line is set low and the odds reflect his high probability of hitting safely.
Jung Hoo Lee profiles as a high-contact leadoff hitter with consistent plate discipline. His on-base skills and propensity to put the ball in play make him a strong candidate for at least one hit per game, especially at the top of the order where extra at-bats are likely. Given the matchup, he should be able to capitalize on early-inning opportunities. The line is set low and the odds reflect his high probability of hitting safely.
Matt Olson is one of the most reliable hitters on the Braves, consistently delivering base hits in favorable matchups. He has at least one hit in 81% of his last 20 games, and Washington’s pitching staff has allowed a high batting average to opposing lefties. With Olson’s high contact rate and discipline, a single hit is a highly probable outcome, justifying the juice on this line.
Matt Olson is one of the most reliable hitters on the Braves, consistently delivering base hits in favorable matchups. He has at least one hit in 81% of his last 20 games, and Washington’s pitching staff has allowed a high batting average to opposing lefties. With Olson’s high contact rate and discipline, a single hit is a highly probable outcome, justifying the juice on this line.
Jarren Duran consistently generates contact and has established himself as a reliable leadoff hitter. His recent form shows strong plate discipline and frequent multi-hit games, making him a strong candidate for at least one hit. The matchup favors his speed and contact profile, and the implied probability for this prop is high. With his aggressive approach at the plate and favorable spot in the batting order, the over on 0.5 hits is a high-confidence play.
Jarren Duran consistently generates contact and has established himself as a reliable leadoff hitter. His recent form shows strong plate discipline and frequent multi-hit games, making him a strong candidate for at least one hit. The matchup favors his speed and contact profile, and the implied probability for this prop is high. With his aggressive approach at the plate and favorable spot in the batting order, the over on 0.5 hits is a high-confidence play.
Francisco Lindor is a steady contributor at the plate, frequently reaching base via both hits and walks. His approach against left-handed pitching has been particularly effective, and he has a strong history of producing in all ballparks. The odds provide solid value for a player with Lindor’s consistency and ability to put the ball in play, making this a reliable over pick.
Francisco Lindor is a steady contributor at the plate, frequently reaching base via both hits and walks. His approach against left-handed pitching has been particularly effective, and he has a strong history of producing in all ballparks. The odds provide solid value for a player with Lindor’s consistency and ability to put the ball in play, making this a reliable over pick.
Alex Bregman’s high contact rate and disciplined approach make him a near lock for at least one hit. He excels at working counts and finding his pitch, and his recent streaks have included consistent hit production. The matchup favors his skillset, and at these odds, the over is a strong and safe play.
Alex Bregman’s high contact rate and disciplined approach make him a near lock for at least one hit. He excels at working counts and finding his pitch, and his recent streaks have included consistent hit production. The matchup favors his skillset, and at these odds, the over is a strong and safe play.
Bichette consistently gets on base and is historically one of the most reliable hitters for at least one base knock per game. He’s aggressive early in counts and has the speed to beat out infield singles, making the over on 0.5 hits a high-confidence option. With his true probability at 91% versus a market-implied 77.5%, there’s a measurable edge in this line.
Bichette consistently gets on base and is historically one of the most reliable hitters for at least one base knock per game. He’s aggressive early in counts and has the speed to beat out infield singles, making the over on 0.5 hits a high-confidence option. With his true probability at 91% versus a market-implied 77.5%, there’s a measurable edge in this line.
Merrill is a reliable contact hitter with a consistent track record of recording at least one hit per game. His approach at the plate and ability to make contact against both lefties and righties make this a high-probability play. With an implied probability of 75.2% but a true hit probability near 89%, this is a strong pick for parlay or anchor value.
Merrill is a reliable contact hitter with a consistent track record of recording at least one hit per game. His approach at the plate and ability to make contact against both lefties and righties make this a high-probability play. With an implied probability of 75.2% but a true hit probability near 89%, this is a strong pick for parlay or anchor value.
Graded results
1Games
- L
New York Knicks -4.5 -105
NBA · 114-109