Dansby Swanson
Swanson has recorded 12 hits in his last 10 games (1.2 hits per game) and has been a mainstay in the Cubs’ lineup. Facing a weak White Sox pitching staff, his recent form and plate consistency make him highly likely to record at least one hit. The market line is aggressive, but true odds suggest a higher likelihood than the implied 66.7%.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Edgar Quero
Quero has logged 10 hits in his last 10 games (1.0 per game), showing solid contact ability as the White Sox’s primary backstop. Given his recent consistency and the Cubs’ vulnerable pitching, the probability of a single hit is strong. The implied odds underrate his current form.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Miguel Vargas
Vargas has 9 doubles and 3 home runs this season, indicating regular extra-base contact. While his recent game logs aren’t available, his track record and everyday play for the White Sox suggest he’s a strong bet to notch a hit against a middling Cubs pitching staff. True probability is above the market’s implied odds.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Tanner Bibee
Bibee has averaged over 5.5 strikeouts per start this season and faces a Cincinnati Reds lineup that strikes out at an above-average rate, especially versus right-handed pitching. Bibee has hit at least 5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts, with the Guardians often letting him work deep into games. With his swing-and-miss stuff and favorable matchup, the -175 line offers value even at a short price. Estimated true probability is 86%.
OVER 4.5 Strikeouts-175
Jose Ramirez
Ramirez is the Guardians' best hitter, slugging .500+ this season and recording multi-base games in over half his starts. The Reds' pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA and struggles to limit extra-base hits. Ramirez's recent form is strong, and he’s historically performed well against average pitching like Cincinnati's. True probability for 2+ bases is 60%.
OVER 1.5 Total Bases-117
Steven Kwan
Kwan is a high-contact leadoff hitter, batting .320 on the season and registering at least one hit in 80%+ of his games. Facing a Reds pitching staff that allows a .250 average to lefties, Kwan is an extremely safe bet to get on base. His consistency and matchup make this a strong value play even at a heavy price. Estimated true probability is 92%.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Elly De La Cruz
De La Cruz is one of the Reds' most dynamic hitters, with a .270 average and at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games. He faces Bibee, who does allow hits to aggressive lefties, and De La Cruz has the speed to beat out infield singles. Given his recent form and the Guardians’ average WHIP, the over is a high-confidence play. Estimated true probability is 90%.
OVER 0.5 Hits-195
Carlos Santana
Santana is a streaky hitter but has turned it on lately, reaching base safely in 7 of his last 10 games. The switch-hitter gets a favorable matchup with the Reds' right-handed pitching, and his veteran approach leads to a high likelihood of putting the ball in play. True probability for a hit is 80%.
OVER 0.5 Hits-177
Trea Turner
Turner is one of the most consistent contact hitters in baseball, averaging well over a hit per game this season and with a career .296 average. He faces Andrew Heaney, who allows a .255 average to righties and has a history of giving up hits to aggressive, fast batters like Turner. Turner has logged a hit in 13 of his last 15 games, and with his speed, he converts grounders into singles at a high rate. The high probability of at least one hit, despite the juiced odds, makes this a positive EV play.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Ranger Suárez
Suárez has been a strikeout machine this season, averaging 6.9 K/9 and facing a Pirates lineup that strikes out at a top-10 rate in MLB (around 24.5%). Suárez has cleared 5.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts and is at home, where his K rate is slightly higher. The Pirates' projected starters include several hitters with 25%+ K rates. The plus odds offer solid value on a strikeout projection that's in line with his typical performance.
OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+102
Nick Castellanos
Castellanos is batting .265 on the season and has at least one hit in 12 of his last 15 games. He faces a lefty in Heaney, and Castellanos has a career .298 average against left-handed pitching. The Phillies’ lineup is rolling, and Castellanos typically sees good pitches to hit when the team is at home. While the odds are steep, the hit probability is strong and justifies a small positive EV.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
MacKenzie Gore
Gore has averaged over 6 strikeouts per outing in his recent starts and faces a Baltimore lineup that can be aggressive and strikeout-prone against lefties. His K/9 sits above 10, and he has gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 starts. The implied probability at -200 is 66.7%, but my model gives about 75% for him reaching at least 6 strikeouts tonight.
OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-200
Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle has hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games and matches up well against left-handed pitching, batting over .300 against southpaws on the season. Facing Gore, who can allow hard contact at times, Mountcastle’s consistent contact profile makes this a strong spot. True hit probability here is about 78%, comfortably above the market implied 66.7%.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
CJ Abrams
Abrams has recorded at least one hit in 7 of his last 10 and is leading off, which should provide maximum plate appearances. He gets a favorable matchup against a young pitcher prone to control lapses. My model puts his chance for a hit at 74%, slightly above the market's implied odds.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, currently slashing above .300 and recording a hit in 9 of his last 10 games. He’s facing Tylor Megill, who has allowed a .250+ average to right-handed hitters and often struggles the second time through the order. Given Judge’s elite hard contact rate and recent form, the probability of at least 1 hit is extremely high.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Juan Soto
Juan Soto has reached at least one total base in 8 of his last 10 games and gets a favorable matchup against a righty in Megill. Soto’s OBP and slugging are both well above league average, and his walk rate ensures he often gets pitches to hit. Considering Soto’s ability to both single and take extra bases, there’s strong value on the over 0.5 total bases.
OVER 0.5 Total Bases-160
Carlos Rodon
Rodon is averaging just under 6 Ks per start over his last 5 outings and faces a Mets lineup that strikes out at a league-average rate. He has only exceeded 6.5 strikeouts once in his last 6 appearances, and the Mets have been more disciplined recently. Market odds are slightly plus money, making this a solid value for Rodon to stay under 6.5 Ks.
UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts+102
Francisco Lindor
Lindor has recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 games and has a strong track record against left-handed pitching, which he’ll face in Rodon. Lindor’s expected batting average is in line with his career norms and he has seen Rodon multiple times, giving him a comfort advantage in this matchup. The probability is high for at least one hit.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Ben Rice
Ben Rice has been a spark for the Yankees with hits in 6 of his last 8 starts. He matches up well against Megill, who gives up a lot of contact to left-handed batters. Rice’s recent at-bats show good plate discipline and contact ability, supporting a high probability he gets on base with a hit.
OVER 0.5 Hits-175
Jack Flaherty
Flaherty is averaging over 10 K/9 this season and has hit 5+ strikeouts in 7 of his last 9 starts. The Blue Jays are a top-10 team in strikeout rate versus righties and have a below-average walk rate, supporting more swings and misses. Flaherty's recent form and Toronto's tendency to strike out make this a strong EV+ target.
OVER 4.5 Strikeouts-155
Bo Bichette
Bichette has at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games and is a career .305 hitter in May. He’s facing a righty in Flaherty but has maintained strong splits against RHP. His high contact profile and stability in the #2 spot make him very likely to record a hit.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Spencer Torkelson
Torkelson has hit safely in 12 of his last 16 games and is showing improved plate discipline. Bowden Francis has allowed a .260 average to RHB and Torkelson has a favorable matchup in the middle of the order. The Tigers’ offense is in strong form, boosting his chances even further.
OVER 0.5 Hits-167
Riley Greene
Greene has reached base safely in 17 of his last 20 games and has a .360 OBP against righties this season. He’s likely to see 4+ plate appearances against a Toronto bullpen that has struggled against left-handed hitters. Even a single cashes this over.
OVER 0.5 Total Bases-200
Bo Bichette
Bichette’s extra-base hit rate is up over the last two weeks and he’s making hard contact (top 20% in MLB hard hit%). He’s also likely to bat 4+ times in a hitter-friendly park. This is a high-floor play as Bichette should get on base at least once.
OVER 0.5 Total Bases-200
Chris Sale
Chris Sale has been in excellent form, averaging over 8 K/9 in his last several starts and showing strong swing-and-miss ability. The Boston Red Sox rank in the league's bottom third for strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching and have whiffed at a 25%+ clip in May. Sale has gone 8+ Ks in 4 of his last 5 outings, and with the Braves letting him work deeper into games, 8+ strikeouts is very attainable. The line is slightly deflated due to the Red Sox's name value, but the matchup and Sale’s recent dominance make this a strong over play.
OVER 7.5 Strikeouts-130
Jarren Duran
Duran has been a consistent top-of-the-order presence for Boston, posting a .270+ average and recording at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games. He also benefits from his speed, turning infield grounders into singles and putting pressure on defenses. Chris Sale’s high strikeout approach does leave room for balls in play for left-handed batters, and Duran has shown he can handle quality lefties, hitting above .250 vs LHP this year. Given his role and recent form, Duran is a strong bet to notch at least one hit.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Austin Riley
Riley is a fixture in the heart of the Braves lineup and regularly contributes across hits, runs, and RBIs. He’s averaged 2.1 hits + runs + RBIs per game over his last 8 starts, and his power plus lineup context give him multiple paths to clear this line. Boston’s Garrett Crochet has good stuff but gives up hard contact to righties, and Riley has a .280+ average and .850 OPS against left-handed pitching since 2023. The combination of contact, power, and team context makes the over attractive at this price.
OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-129
Taj Bradley
Bradley has shown strong strikeout ability, averaging around 6.5 K/GS last season and fanning 8 in his first start of 2025. The Miami Marlins have been among the bottom five in MLB in strikeout rate versus righties this season, making the matchup favorable. Marlins' projected lineup features multiple high-K batters. Given Bradley’s pitch count and swing-and-miss stuff, the line is modest and offers good value.
OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-110
Xavier Edwards
Edwards has been a contact-oriented hitter (career .275 AVG in MLB and stronger in minors) and is likely to bat near the top of the order. He has hit safely in 7 of his last 10 games. Facing a strikeout pitcher like Bradley can be tough, but Edwards’ profile (high contact, low K%) gives him a strong chance to reach base at least once, especially with likely two shots against the Tampa bullpen.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Josh Lowe
Lowe, back in the lineup, has hit safely in 80% of games started against right-handed pitching since 2023 and sports a career .269 AVG. The Marlins are starting a righty-heavy bullpen game, and Lowe is batting in a favorable lineup spot. He’s consistent in putting balls in play, making one hit likely in four or more plate appearances.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Cole Ragans
Ragans has been a strikeout machine, averaging over 7 K's per start in his last 10 outings and posting a 29% K rate on the season. The Cardinals have struggled against left-handed pitching, striking out at a 23% clip over the last month. Given the Royals' tendency to let Ragans go 6+ innings and his ability to miss bats, a projection of 7+ strikeouts is justified. With market odds at -159 (decimal 1.63), and a true probability estimate of 72%, the EV is solidly positive.
OVER 6.5 Strikeouts-159
Bobby Witt Jr.
Witt has been red-hot, averaging 2.0 total bases per game in his last 10 and slugging .520 on the season. He’s especially effective against right-handed pitchers like Pallante, who has struggled to limit hard contact. Witt has covered this mark in 7 of his last 10 games and also has strong splits on the road. With his blend of power and speed, he presents a high floor for total bases.
OVER 1.5 Total Bases-154
Maikel Garcia
Garcia has hit safely in 9 of his last 10 games and is making consistent contact atop the lineup. He’s particularly strong against righties, batting .295 with a .350 OBP in those spots. With a projected 4+ plate appearances as the Royals' leadoff man, the probability of at least one hit is very high. The price is steep, but it’s justified by his recent consistency.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200
Salvador Perez
Perez has a strong track record against right-handed pitching and has hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games. He is an aggressive hitter and rarely walks, increasing his chances of putting balls in play. With the Cardinals' starter (Pallante) carrying a WHIP above 1.40, Perez should have plenty of chances to cash this prop.
OVER 0.5 Hits-200