Sports picks for Wednesday, May 14, 2025
57 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
6
Phillies -1.5Phillies are rolling at home, ranking top-3 in both runs scored and team ERA over the last two weeks. St. Louis remains inconsistent offensively and struggles to hit on the road, while Philly's bullpen is finally locking games down. No funny business in the line—just a clear talent gap and a red-hot home squad. Old-school, blue-collar spot to lay the run and a half.
Phillies are rolling at home, ranking top-3 in both runs scored and team ERA over the last two weeks. St.
Louis remains inconsistent offensively and struggles to hit on the road, while Philly's bullpen is finally locking games down. No funny business in the line—just a clear talent gap and a red-hot home squad.
Old-school, blue-collar spot to lay the run and a half.
Orioles MoneylineOrioles' bats are scorching at home and their bullpen's been nails, while the Twins' lineup has cooled off on the road. No sharp line movement and no trap vibes—just a straightforward edge for the O's at Camden Yards. Numbers back it, so does this old bear's gut.
Orioles' bats are scorching at home and their bullpen's been nails, while the Twins' lineup has cooled off on the road. No sharp line movement and no trap vibes—just a straightforward edge for the O's at Camden Yards. Numbers back it, so does this old bear's gut.
Yankees MoneylineYankees have the hotter bats lately and own a top-3 bullpen in the AL. Seattle’s offense is ice-cold, and their home field isn’t scaring anyone right now. No tricky line moves or injury bombs—just a spot where New York’s overall metrics and recent momentum give them the edge. Gary’s system sees the value on the Bronx Bombers, plain and simple.
Yankees have the hotter bats lately and own a top-3 bullpen in the AL. Seattle’s offense is ice-cold, and their home field isn’t scaring anyone right now. No tricky line moves or injury bombs—just a spot where New York’s overall metrics and recent momentum give them the edge. Gary’s system sees the value on the Bronx Bombers, plain and simple.
Mets -1.5The Mets are rolling at home, with their top arms keeping the pen fresh and bats heating up—plus this Pittsburgh lineup struggles on the road against right-handed pitching. No sharp/public split red flags, and the line’s steady. Mets by multiple runs is the sharp side—old school, no sweat.
The Mets are rolling at home, with their top arms keeping the pen fresh and bats heating up—plus this Pittsburgh lineup struggles on the road against right-handed pitching. No sharp/public split red flags, and the line’s steady. Mets by multiple runs is the sharp side—old school, no sweat.
Reds -1.5The Reds have a clear edge in both lineup depth and bullpen effectiveness, and they’ve been playing with renewed energy at home. The White Sox’s offense is ice-cold and their pitching staff can’t keep up with Cincinnati’s power. No major line movement or trap signals—Reds should cruise here.
The Reds have a clear edge in both lineup depth and bullpen effectiveness, and they’ve been playing with renewed energy at home. The White Sox’s offense is ice-cold and their pitching staff can’t keep up with Cincinnati’s power. No major line movement or trap signals—Reds should cruise here.
Braves -1.5Braves at home are a different animal—top-5 in runs per game and slugging, while the Nats' bullpen is shaky and their offense struggles on the road. Line is stable, no sharp action moving things, so I'll trust the data and back Atlanta to handle business by at least two. Not a lock, but a clear edge.
Braves at home are a different animal—top-5 in runs per game and slugging, while the Nats' bullpen is shaky and their offense struggles on the road. Line is stable, no sharp action moving things, so I'll trust the data and back Atlanta to handle business by at least two. Not a lock, but a clear edge.
Player props
45Schwarber is red hot, hitting .444 over his last 10 at-bats and carrying a .268 average on the season. He faces Sonny Gray (3.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), a solid pitcher but one Schwarber has power and discipline to threaten for a hit against. Schwarber has at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games and is one of the league leaders in hard contact rate. The line is also fair for a player with his recent contact profile and OBP.
Schwarber is red hot, hitting .444 over his last 10 at-bats and carrying a .268 average on the season. He faces Sonny Gray (3.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), a solid pitcher but one Schwarber has power and discipline to threaten for a hit against. Schwarber has at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games and is one of the league leaders in hard contact rate. The line is also fair for a player with his recent contact profile and OBP.
Donovan is batting .312 on the season and .375 over his last 8 at-bats. He’s shown strong consistency (48 hits in 40 games), and is a tough out with a .374 OBP. With Philadelphia’s bullpen not dominant and Donovan’s recent contact, he projects for a 75%+ chance to record a hit, making the juice on the over playable.
Donovan is batting .312 on the season and .375 over his last 8 at-bats. He’s shown strong consistency (48 hits in 40 games), and is a tough out with a .374 OBP. With Philadelphia’s bullpen not dominant and Donovan’s recent contact, he projects for a 75%+ chance to record a hit, making the juice on the over playable.
Nootbaar is hitting .571 in his last 7 at-bats and has a .250 season average with a solid .372 OBP. His recent form is excellent and he’s in the top half of the Cardinals order. Facing Aaron Nola (4.89 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), who has struggled with consistency, Nootbaar has a high probability to reach base via a hit.
Nootbaar is hitting .571 in his last 7 at-bats and has a .250 season average with a solid .372 OBP. His recent form is excellent and he’s in the top half of the Cardinals order. Facing Aaron Nola (4.89 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), who has struggled with consistency, Nootbaar has a high probability to reach base via a hit.
Arenado is batting .500 over his last 8 at-bats and has a .264 average with a .417 slugging percentage. He’s registered 10 doubles and 4 home runs in 38 games. Given Nola’s high WHIP and Arenado’s recent power/contact, getting even a single base is likely. He’s also hit safely in 6 of his last 8 games.
Arenado is batting .500 over his last 8 at-bats and has a .264 average with a .417 slugging percentage. He’s registered 10 doubles and 4 home runs in 38 games. Given Nola’s high WHIP and Arenado’s recent power/contact, getting even a single base is likely. He’s also hit safely in 6 of his last 8 games.
Harper is hitting .333 over his last 9 at-bats and has a .232 average on the year, but is a career .280+ hitter and trending up. He has a strong eye (.351 OBP), faces a solid but not elite pitcher in Gray, and his recent form suggests a hit is probable. Harper has reached base in 8 of his last 10 games.
Harper is hitting .333 over his last 9 at-bats and has a .232 average on the year, but is a career .280+ hitter and trending up. He has a strong eye (.351 OBP), faces a solid but not elite pitcher in Gray, and his recent form suggests a hit is probable. Harper has reached base in 8 of his last 10 games.
Kwan has been an elite contact hitter all year, batting .333 with 55 hits in 42 games (1.31 hits/game). He’s also hot recently, hitting .429 over his last 10 games. Facing Freddy Peralta, who is strong but Kwan is highly consistent and rarely goes hitless. The implied probability for -200 is 66.7%, but Kwan’s true hit probability is closer to 85-90%, generating positive expected value.
Kwan has been an elite contact hitter all year, batting .333 with 55 hits in 42 games (1.31 hits/game). He’s also hot recently, hitting .429 over his last 10 games. Facing Freddy Peralta, who is strong but Kwan is highly consistent and rarely goes hitless. The implied probability for -200 is 66.7%, but Kwan’s true hit probability is closer to 85-90%, generating positive expected value.
Turang holds a .295 average with 44 hits in 40 games (1.1 hits/game), and has been a mainstay at the top of the Brewers lineup. He’s been steady in the last 10 games as well, batting .250 but still producing. Against Gavin Williams, who has a high WHIP (1.73), Turang’s odds of getting a hit are strong. The model projects about 80% hit probability for Turang versus the implied 66.7% at -200.
Turang holds a .295 average with 44 hits in 40 games (1.1 hits/game), and has been a mainstay at the top of the Brewers lineup. He’s been steady in the last 10 games as well, batting .250 but still producing. Against Gavin Williams, who has a high WHIP (1.73), Turang’s odds of getting a hit are strong. The model projects about 80% hit probability for Turang versus the implied 66.7% at -200.
Frelick hits .274 on the season with 37 hits in 40 games and is more of a singles hitter (just 1 HR, 5 doubles). He’s batting .429 over his last 10 games, showing strong recent form. With Gavin Williams allowing plenty of baserunners, Frelick’s contact profile and recent streak make the probability of a single ~70%, well ahead of the 57.6% implied by -136 odds.
Frelick hits .274 on the season with 37 hits in 40 games and is more of a singles hitter (just 1 HR, 5 doubles). He’s batting .429 over his last 10 games, showing strong recent form. With Gavin Williams allowing plenty of baserunners, Frelick’s contact profile and recent streak make the probability of a single ~70%, well ahead of the 57.6% implied by -136 odds.
Kwan’s elite hit rate means he nearly always records at least one base in a game (.333 AVG, 1.31 hits/game). He rarely draws only walks and has just 5 games all season without a hit. With his recent hot streak (.429 in last 10), he’s extremely likely to clear this low bar against any pitcher, especially as Peralta does allow some contact.
Kwan’s elite hit rate means he nearly always records at least one base in a game (.333 AVG, 1.31 hits/game). He rarely draws only walks and has just 5 games all season without a hit. With his recent hot streak (.429 in last 10), he’s extremely likely to clear this low bar against any pitcher, especially as Peralta does allow some contact.
Hicks has a season K/9 of 8.3 and averages just over 5 strikeouts per 5.1 innings. The Diamondbacks lineup is not especially strikeout-averse. Hicks has hit at least 4 strikeouts in 7 of his 9 starts this year. With a true probability of around 89%, the over offers value even at a steep price.
Hicks has a season K/9 of 8.3 and averages just over 5 strikeouts per 5.1 innings. The Diamondbacks lineup is not especially strikeout-averse. Hicks has hit at least 4 strikeouts in 7 of his 9 starts this year. With a true probability of around 89%, the over offers value even at a steep price.
Flores has a .243 average across 41 games and has recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 games. He’s facing a Diamondbacks pitching staff that allows a solid contact rate, and Flores’ recent power surge (2 HRs in last 10 ABs) suggests he’s seeing the ball well. True probability for a hit is about 82%, making this a solid high-confidence play.
Flores has a .243 average across 41 games and has recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 games. He’s facing a Diamondbacks pitching staff that allows a solid contact rate, and Flores’ recent power surge (2 HRs in last 10 ABs) suggests he’s seeing the ball well. True probability for a hit is about 82%, making this a solid high-confidence play.
Chapman is hitting .219 but has gone 2-for-8 in his last 10 ABs (recent average .250). He’s facing a righty-heavy Arizona bullpen and has shown some consistency reaching base, getting at least one hit in 6 of his last 10 games. With a true probability of 80%, the over remains slightly +EV at current odds.
Chapman is hitting .219 but has gone 2-for-8 in his last 10 ABs (recent average .250). He’s facing a righty-heavy Arizona bullpen and has shown some consistency reaching base, getting at least one hit in 6 of his last 10 games. With a true probability of 80%, the over remains slightly +EV at current odds.
Henderson has a .264 average with 34 hits in 32 games and has shown extra-base power (10 XBH). He is facing Bailey Ober, who has a 1.40 WHIP and allows a decent number of baserunners. Given Henderson’s strong season-long contact rate and the Twins’ mid-level pitching, the probability of him getting at least one hit is high. Season consistency and lineup position support a high true probability for this prop.
Henderson has a .264 average with 34 hits in 32 games and has shown extra-base power (10 XBH). He is facing Bailey Ober, who has a 1.40 WHIP and allows a decent number of baserunners. Given Henderson’s strong season-long contact rate and the Twins’ mid-level pitching, the probability of him getting at least one hit is high. Season consistency and lineup position support a high true probability for this prop.
Mullins is batting .229 with 30 hits in 37 games and has 7 HR, 6 doubles, and 6 steals. He’s on a hot streak with a .375 average (3 hits in last 8 AB) and 2 HR in his last 10 games. Facing Ober, who allows baserunners, Mullins’ pop and speed make him very likely to record at least one base. His recent form and ability to reach via hit, walk, or XBH support strong value here.
Mullins is batting .229 with 30 hits in 37 games and has 7 HR, 6 doubles, and 6 steals. He’s on a hot streak with a .375 average (3 hits in last 8 AB) and 2 HR in his last 10 games. Facing Ober, who allows baserunners, Mullins’ pop and speed make him very likely to record at least one base. His recent form and ability to reach via hit, walk, or XBH support strong value here.
Buxton’s season line (9 HR, 26 RBI, 30 runs in 38 games, .825 OPS) and spot near the top of the Twins’ order give him multiple paths to clear this number. While his last 10 games have been cold, his power/speed profile and ability to score or drive in runs are strong. Facing Dean Kremer (5.24 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.82 ERA in last start), Buxton’s bounce-back potential is strong against a hittable starter.
Buxton’s season line (9 HR, 26 RBI, 30 runs in 38 games, .825 OPS) and spot near the top of the Twins’ order give him multiple paths to clear this number. While his last 10 games have been cold, his power/speed profile and ability to score or drive in runs are strong. Facing Dean Kremer (5.24 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.82 ERA in last start), Buxton’s bounce-back potential is strong against a hittable starter.
Rutschman is hitting just .203 on the season but has 3 hits in his last 7 at-bats (.429) and 2 HR recently, indicating a positive trend. His plate discipline (OBP .298) and switch-hitting ability give him a good chance to find a hit against Ober. The line is juiced, but true probability is high given his recent contact and matchup.
Rutschman is hitting just .203 on the season but has 3 hits in his last 7 at-bats (.429) and 2 HR recently, indicating a positive trend. His plate discipline (OBP .298) and switch-hitting ability give him a good chance to find a hit against Ober. The line is juiced, but true probability is high given his recent contact and matchup.
Aaron Judge is on a torrid streak with a .500 average (5-for-10) across his last 10 at-bats and an incredible .414 season average. He has 65 hits in 41 games, averaging 1.59 hits per game, and has hit safely in nearly every recent appearance. Facing a Seattle pitching staff that has shown vulnerability, the likelihood of Judge recording at least one hit is extremely high.
Aaron Judge is on a torrid streak with a .500 average (5-for-10) across his last 10 at-bats and an incredible .414 season average. He has 65 hits in 41 games, averaging 1.59 hits per game, and has hit safely in nearly every recent appearance. Facing a Seattle pitching staff that has shown vulnerability, the likelihood of Judge recording at least one hit is extremely high.
Polanco is scorching hot since returning, batting .400 on the season and .500 (5-for-10) in his last 10 at-bats with a home run and 3 RBIs. He’s hit safely in each of his first 4 games with Seattle, and his recent form and plate discipline suggest another hit is highly probable, even against a strong Yankees staff.
Polanco is scorching hot since returning, batting .400 on the season and .500 (5-for-10) in his last 10 at-bats with a home run and 3 RBIs. He’s hit safely in each of his first 4 games with Seattle, and his recent form and plate discipline suggest another hit is highly probable, even against a strong Yankees staff.
Judge leads the Yankees with 39 runs in 41 games (0.95 runs per game) and has scored 9 times in his last 10 at-bats. With his elite on-base skills (OBP .500) and power, he is consistently driven in by a strong Yankees lineup. Facing a Mariners pitching staff that has been average, Judge is in an excellent spot to cross the plate at least once.
Judge leads the Yankees with 39 runs in 41 games (0.95 runs per game) and has scored 9 times in his last 10 at-bats. With his elite on-base skills (OBP .500) and power, he is consistently driven in by a strong Yankees lineup. Facing a Mariners pitching staff that has been average, Judge is in an excellent spot to cross the plate at least once.
Raleigh is mired in a major slump, going hitless in his last 9 at-bats and posting a .000 average over his last 10-game stretch. Despite solid season stats, his timing is clearly off right now. Facing Rodon, who is in dominant form, makes it unlikely Raleigh will break out of his cold streak in this matchup.
Raleigh is mired in a major slump, going hitless in his last 9 at-bats and posting a .000 average over his last 10-game stretch. Despite solid season stats, his timing is clearly off right now. Facing Rodon, who is in dominant form, makes it unlikely Raleigh will break out of his cold streak in this matchup.
Schwarber has 14 HRs in 41 games (0.34 HR/game), but the Cardinals' likely pitchers (Fedde, WHIP 1.31, 5.6 K/9) are not especially homer-prone this year. Schwarber has hit only 2 HR in his last 10 games, and the under is favored at -200. True probability for no HR is ~83%, given that the league average for non-elite power hitters is closer to 85-90% per game. Combined with the high juice, the under is a solid value.
Schwarber has 14 HRs in 41 games (0.34 HR/game), but the Cardinals' likely pitchers (Fedde, WHIP 1.31, 5.6 K/9) are not especially homer-prone this year. Schwarber has hit only 2 HR in his last 10 games, and the under is favored at -200. True probability for no HR is ~83%, given that the league average for non-elite power hitters is closer to 85-90% per game. Combined with the high juice, the under is a solid value.
Donovan is hitting .312 on the year and .375 over his last 10 games, showing strong consistency. He has 48 hits in 40 games (1.2/game), and only went hitless in 8 of those. Given his high contact rate and matchup against Phillies pitching (Nola, ERA 4.89, WHIP 1.35), the probability he gets at least one hit is well above 80%. Odds are steep, but true probability is higher, providing positive EV.
Donovan is hitting .312 on the year and .375 over his last 10 games, showing strong consistency. He has 48 hits in 40 games (1.2/game), and only went hitless in 8 of those. Given his high contact rate and matchup against Phillies pitching (Nola, ERA 4.89, WHIP 1.35), the probability he gets at least one hit is well above 80%. Odds are steep, but true probability is higher, providing positive EV.
Nootbaar has a .250 average, .372 OBP, and is slugging .419 with 40 hits in 41 games, including 9 doubles and 6 HR. He has at least one base in 7 of his last 10 games and is facing a hittable Phillies staff. The implied probability is 65%, but true probability is closer to 80%, making this a strong value, especially given his recent hot streak (.571 AVG last 10 ABs).
Nootbaar has a .250 average, .372 OBP, and is slugging .419 with 40 hits in 41 games, including 9 doubles and 6 HR. He has at least one base in 7 of his last 10 games and is facing a hittable Phillies staff. The implied probability is 65%, but true probability is closer to 80%, making this a strong value, especially given his recent hot streak (.571 AVG last 10 ABs).
Harper is batting .232 on the season but .333 in his last 10 ABs, showing signs of heating up. He has at least 1 hit in 28 of 41 games (68%), but recent form and matchup vs. Fedde (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.31) push his true hit probability closer to 78%. While the odds are steep, the true hit probability still offers a modest positive EV.
Harper is batting .232 on the season but .333 in his last 10 ABs, showing signs of heating up. He has at least 1 hit in 28 of 41 games (68%), but recent form and matchup vs. Fedde (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.31) push his true hit probability closer to 78%. While the odds are steep, the true hit probability still offers a modest positive EV.
Skubal has averaged 11.3 K/9 this season with 60 strikeouts in 47.2 innings and has exceeded 7 strikeouts in the majority of his starts. Boston strikes out at a league-average clip and Skubal's elite swing-and-miss stuff should play well here. With a true probability around 62%, the over at -130 offers strong value given recent form and matchup.
Skubal has averaged 11.3 K/9 this season with 60 strikeouts in 47.2 innings and has exceeded 7 strikeouts in the majority of his starts. Boston strikes out at a league-average clip and Skubal's elite swing-and-miss stuff should play well here. With a true probability around 62%, the over at -130 offers strong value given recent form and matchup.
Abreu is hitting .281 on the season and is scorching hot with 5 hits in his last 6 at-bats and an .833 average over his last 10-game sample. Facing a tough lefty in Skubal is a challenge, but Abreu has demonstrated consistent contact and the line is low. His true hit probability is estimated at 62-64%, making the over a solid value at -114.
Abreu is hitting .281 on the season and is scorching hot with 5 hits in his last 6 at-bats and an .833 average over his last 10-game sample. Facing a tough lefty in Skubal is a challenge, but Abreu has demonstrated consistent contact and the line is low. His true hit probability is estimated at 62-64%, making the over a solid value at -114.
Torkelson is batting .240 on the season but is red-hot recently, hitting .500 (3-for-6) in his last 10 at-bats. He has the platoon advantage against Boston’s right-handed pitching staff. His true probability to get a hit is estimated around 69%, so the over at -167 still offers positive expected value.
Torkelson is batting .240 on the season but is red-hot recently, hitting .500 (3-for-6) in his last 10 at-bats. He has the platoon advantage against Boston’s right-handed pitching staff. His true probability to get a hit is estimated around 69%, so the over at -167 still offers positive expected value.
Carpenter is enjoying a breakout season, hitting .296 with a .542 SLG and 42 hits in 40 games. He's hit safely in about 75% of games and has power upside for extra bases. Facing a right-handed staff, his probability of at least one base is high (~78%), so the -200 line is justified and still offers low-risk EV+.
Carpenter is enjoying a breakout season, hitting .296 with a .542 SLG and 42 hits in 40 games. He's hit safely in about 75% of games and has power upside for extra bases. Facing a right-handed staff, his probability of at least one base is high (~78%), so the -200 line is justified and still offers low-risk EV+.
Greene is hitting .261 on the season and .300 over his last 10 ABs, showing steady recent form. With 42 hits in 41 games, he’s reliably putting the ball in play and should continue that trend against Boston. Estimated hit probability is around 77%, making the over a solid if not spectacular value at this price.
Greene is hitting .261 on the season and .300 over his last 10 ABs, showing steady recent form. With 42 hits in 41 games, he’s reliably putting the ball in play and should continue that trend against Boston. Estimated hit probability is around 77%, making the over a solid if not spectacular value at this price.
Bichette is hitting .286 on the season with 50 hits in 41 games and is a consistent contact hitter. He has only failed to record a hit in 9 of 41 games (78% hit rate). Even though his last 10-game average is .250, his overall profile and plate appearances make him likely to get at least one hit. The opposing starter, Ryan Pepiot, allows hits at a moderate rate (1.31 WHIP), which further supports the over.
Bichette is hitting .286 on the season with 50 hits in 41 games and is a consistent contact hitter. He has only failed to record a hit in 9 of 41 games (78% hit rate). Even though his last 10-game average is .250, his overall profile and plate appearances make him likely to get at least one hit. The opposing starter, Ryan Pepiot, allows hits at a moderate rate (1.31 WHIP), which further supports the over.
Aranda is having a breakout season, batting .339 with 40 hits in 37 games and a very strong OBP (.428). He has been extremely consistent, making the over on 0.5 hits a high-percentage play. Chris Bassitt is a quality starter, but his WHIP (1.23) and opponent batting average suggest Aranda should get opportunities. With his recent form and contact skills, Aranda is highly likely to record at least one hit.
Aranda is having a breakout season, batting .339 with 40 hits in 37 games and a very strong OBP (.428). He has been extremely consistent, making the over on 0.5 hits a high-percentage play. Chris Bassitt is a quality starter, but his WHIP (1.23) and opponent batting average suggest Aranda should get opportunities. With his recent form and contact skills, Aranda is highly likely to record at least one hit.
Bassitt has struck out 49 in 45.2 innings (9.7 K/9), and has been consistently above this strikeout line in most starts. The Rays' lineup is prone to strikeouts, and Bassitt's recent form supports another solid outing. With a projected 6-7 innings, he should get 6+ Ks unless he runs into unusual trouble. The market odds provide solid value given his strikeout consistency.
Bassitt has struck out 49 in 45.2 innings (9.7 K/9), and has been consistently above this strikeout line in most starts. The Rays' lineup is prone to strikeouts, and Bassitt's recent form supports another solid outing. With a projected 6-7 innings, he should get 6+ Ks unless he runs into unusual trouble. The market odds provide solid value given his strikeout consistency.
Lowe is only hitting .199 on the year, but is showing strong form with a .333 average (6 hits in 18 at-bats) over his last 10 games. He projects to see favorable matchups against right-handed pitching (Bassitt), and his recent surge in contact makes him likely to collect a hit. His hit rate is rising and the price, while steep, is justified by the recent trend.
Lowe is only hitting .199 on the year, but is showing strong form with a .333 average (6 hits in 18 at-bats) over his last 10 games. He projects to see favorable matchups against right-handed pitching (Bassitt), and his recent surge in contact makes him likely to collect a hit. His hit rate is rising and the price, while steep, is justified by the recent trend.
Falter averages 6.4 K/9 and has shown consistency in reaching at least 3 strikeouts in the majority of his starts. The Mets' projected lineup has a strikeout rate slightly above league average. With Falter's role as a starter and his ability to go 5+ innings, the probability of him reaching at least 3 Ks is high (estimated true probability ≈88%). The market line is conservative due to recent matchups, but the underlying stats support the over.
Falter averages 6.4 K/9 and has shown consistency in reaching at least 3 strikeouts in the majority of his starts. The Mets' projected lineup has a strikeout rate slightly above league average. With Falter's role as a starter and his ability to go 5+ innings, the probability of him reaching at least 3 Ks is high (estimated true probability ≈88%). The market line is conservative due to recent matchups, but the underlying stats support the over.
Alonso is hitting .310 on the season and, despite a recent slump (1-for-9 in his last 10 AB), his underlying metrics and hard-hit rates remain strong. Facing Falter (4.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), Alonso should see 4+ plate appearances, giving him a high probability (estimated at 80%) of recording at least one hit. The odds are reasonable given his season-long consistency.
Alonso is hitting .310 on the season and, despite a recent slump (1-for-9 in his last 10 AB), his underlying metrics and hard-hit rates remain strong. Facing Falter (4.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), Alonso should see 4+ plate appearances, giving him a high probability (estimated at 80%) of recording at least one hit. The odds are reasonable given his season-long consistency.
Hayes is batting .260 this season and has 2 hits in his last 8 at-bats (.250 recent average). He typically bats near the top or middle of the order, maximizing plate appearances. The Mets' pitching staff is solid but not dominant, and Hayes' contact rate (and lack of recent power) makes a single hit a high-probability event (true probability ≈78%).
Hayes is batting .260 this season and has 2 hits in his last 8 at-bats (.250 recent average). He typically bats near the top or middle of the order, maximizing plate appearances. The Mets' pitching staff is solid but not dominant, and Hayes' contact rate (and lack of recent power) makes a single hit a high-probability event (true probability ≈78%).
Lodolo has a season K/9 of 7.2 and is averaging roughly 6 strikeouts per start over 47.1 innings. The White Sox lineup is among the league's worst in OBP and run scoring, and lacks contact hitters outside of a couple of bats. With the Reds likely to let Lodolo work into the 6th, and a White Sox offense that has struggled to avoid strikeouts, the true probability of Lodolo reaching 6+ Ks is around 65%. At -143 (decimal 1.699), this offers positive EV.
Lodolo has a season K/9 of 7.2 and is averaging roughly 6 strikeouts per start over 47.1 innings. The White Sox lineup is among the league's worst in OBP and run scoring, and lacks contact hitters outside of a couple of bats. With the Reds likely to let Lodolo work into the 6th, and a White Sox offense that has struggled to avoid strikeouts, the true probability of Lodolo reaching 6+ Ks is around 65%. At -143 (decimal 1.699), this offers positive EV.
Martin has a low K/9 (5.9) and only 28 strikeouts in 42.2 innings, averaging well under 1 K per inning. The Reds are a middle-of-the-pack team for strikeout rate, but Martin's pitch-to-contact style and the likelihood that he may not pitch deep into the game (given his 1.41 WHIP) increase the chances of him finishing with 3 or fewer Ks. True probability for the under is about 54%. With +133 odds (decimal 2.33), this is a strong value play.
Martin has a low K/9 (5.9) and only 28 strikeouts in 42.2 innings, averaging well under 1 K per inning. The Reds are a middle-of-the-pack team for strikeout rate, but Martin's pitch-to-contact style and the likelihood that he may not pitch deep into the game (given his 1.41 WHIP) increase the chances of him finishing with 3 or fewer Ks. True probability for the under is about 54%. With +133 odds (decimal 2.33), this is a strong value play.
Elder is averaging 7.1 K/9 with 30 strikeouts over 38 innings. The Nationals have several low-average hitters and limited power bats, which should allow Elder to pitch deep enough to reach at least 4 strikeouts. He has cleared this line in a majority of starts this season, and Washington’s lineup profile supports a strong chance to hit the over. The -190 price is steep, but the probability of clearing 3.5 K is high.
Elder is averaging 7.1 K/9 with 30 strikeouts over 38 innings. The Nationals have several low-average hitters and limited power bats, which should allow Elder to pitch deep enough to reach at least 4 strikeouts. He has cleared this line in a majority of starts this season, and Washington’s lineup profile supports a strong chance to hit the over. The -190 price is steep, but the probability of clearing 3.5 K is high.
Despite a .219 average, Olson is still a volume hitter with 33 hits in 42 games (0.79 hits/game). While he’s been cold recently (1 hit in his last 5 ABs), Washington’s pitching is average and Olson is due for positive regression with a high BABIP and a strong supporting lineup. Historically, Olson averages 1+ hits per game over his career against mediocre pitching, making the over at 0.5 hits a high-probability play.
Despite a .219 average, Olson is still a volume hitter with 33 hits in 42 games (0.79 hits/game). While he’s been cold recently (1 hit in his last 5 ABs), Washington’s pitching is average and Olson is due for positive regression with a high BABIP and a strong supporting lineup. Historically, Olson averages 1+ hits per game over his career against mediocre pitching, making the over at 0.5 hits a high-probability play.
Ozuna has a .271 average, .867 OPS, and has been productive in the last 10 games (.333 avg, 2 RBIs). He’s batting in the heart of the order and contributes in all three categories—hits, runs, and RBIs. Facing a Nationals staff that is unlikely to dominate, Ozuna’s high OBP and consistent run production give him an excellent chance to reach at least two combined stats. This line is hit in over 60% of his games.
Ozuna has a .271 average, .867 OPS, and has been productive in the last 10 games (.333 avg, 2 RBIs). He’s batting in the heart of the order and contributes in all three categories—hits, runs, and RBIs. Facing a Nationals staff that is unlikely to dominate, Ozuna’s high OBP and consistent run production give him an excellent chance to reach at least two combined stats. This line is hit in over 60% of his games.
Hoerner is batting .281 on the season and .500 (2-for-4) in his recent sample, and he has a strong track record of putting the ball in play. Facing Ryan Weathers (Marlins), who allows a moderate amount of contact, Hoerner’s on-base skills and role near the top of the order boost his floor. Given his season-long consistency and strong recent form, the implied probability (66.7%) understates his true hit rate, which I estimate at 82% for this matchup.
Hoerner is batting .281 on the season and .500 (2-for-4) in his recent sample, and he has a strong track record of putting the ball in play. Facing Ryan Weathers (Marlins), who allows a moderate amount of contact, Hoerner’s on-base skills and role near the top of the order boost his floor. Given his season-long consistency and strong recent form, the implied probability (66.7%) understates his true hit rate, which I estimate at 82% for this matchup.
Weathers has averaged 7.6 K/9 across 41.2 IP and has shown improved form recently, striking out 5 in his last outing. The Cubs strike out at a slightly above-average rate and are in a cold stretch offensively (several key hitters under .200 recently). I project Weathers for around 5 Ks, meaning the true probability of clearing 3.5 is about 77%. At -104 (decimal 1.96), this is a solid EV+ spot.
Weathers has averaged 7.6 K/9 across 41.2 IP and has shown improved form recently, striking out 5 in his last outing. The Cubs strike out at a slightly above-average rate and are in a cold stretch offensively (several key hitters under .200 recently). I project Weathers for around 5 Ks, meaning the true probability of clearing 3.5 is about 77%. At -104 (decimal 1.96), this is a solid EV+ spot.
Stowers is batting .287 on the season and hitting .333 over the last 10 games (4-for-12), showing excellent recent form. Given Taillon’s struggles in his last outing and his recent high ERA, Stowers is well-positioned to collect at least one hit in this matchup. The line implies a 56.9% chance, but with Stowers’ current form and the matchup, I put the true probability at 78%.
Stowers is batting .287 on the season and hitting .333 over the last 10 games (4-for-12), showing excellent recent form. Given Taillon’s struggles in his last outing and his recent high ERA, Stowers is well-positioned to collect at least one hit in this matchup. The line implies a 56.9% chance, but with Stowers’ current form and the matchup, I put the true probability at 78%.
Swanson has not hit a home run in his last 10 games (0 HRs, .214 average in 14 recent at-bats) and faces Weathers, who has not been especially homer-prone but also not elite. Swanson’s season HR pace (9 in 43 games) is solid but not outstanding, and his recent power drought lowers the chance of a homer further. The implied probability on the under is 66.7%; I estimate the true probability at 80%, providing some value.
Swanson has not hit a home run in his last 10 games (0 HRs, .214 average in 14 recent at-bats) and faces Weathers, who has not been especially homer-prone but also not elite. Swanson’s season HR pace (9 in 43 games) is solid but not outstanding, and his recent power drought lowers the chance of a homer further. The implied probability on the under is 66.7%; I estimate the true probability at 80%, providing some value.
Graded results
6Games
- L
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +120 (St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies)
MLB · St. Louis Cardinals 1 - Philadelphia Phillies 2
- L
Baltimore Orioles ML -122 (Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles)
MLB · Minnesota Twins 6 - Baltimore Orioles 3
- W
New York Yankees ML -116 (New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners)
MLB · New York Yankees 3 - Seattle Mariners 2
- L
New York Mets -1.5 -134 (Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets)
MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates 4 - New York Mets 0
- L
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -110 (Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds)
MLB · Chicago White Sox 4 - Cincinnati Reds 2
- L
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +125 (Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves)
MLB · Washington Nationals 5 - Atlanta Braves 4