Sports picks for Tuesday, May 13, 2025
22 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
6
Pacers +8.5Cavs are the better defensive squad and have the home edge, but the Pacers’ fast pace and recent form keep them dangerous. Indiana’s depth, offensive versatility, and ability to hang in close games give real value with +8.5, especially with no sharp line movement signaling a trap. Data says Cavs win, but the Pacers’ cover is the smart play.
Cavs are the better defensive squad and have the home edge, but the Pacers’ fast pace and recent form keep them dangerous. Indiana’s depth, offensive versatility, and ability to hang in close games give real value with +8.5, especially with no sharp line movement signaling a trap. Data says Cavs win, but the Pacers’ cover is the smart play.
Reds -1.5The Reds have a clear statistical edge: stronger lineup, better bullpen, and they're at home against a White Sox squad that's dead last in most offensive metrics and struggles on the road. No sharp line moves or trap signals here. The numbers say Reds roll, and my gut (plus my decades of heartbreak and glory with this franchise) says hammer it.
The Reds have a clear statistical edge: stronger lineup, better bullpen, and they're at home against a White Sox squad that's dead last in most offensive metrics and struggles on the road. No sharp line moves or trap signals here. The numbers say Reds roll, and my gut (plus my decades of heartbreak and glory with this franchise) says hammer it.
Mets -1.5The Mets have a clear edge at home with stronger advanced pitching metrics and a lineup that's been producing with runners in scoring position. Pirates' bats are ice cold away from PNC Park, and the line’s been rock steady—no trap here. Mets are my boys, but the data backs it up: this should be a clean two-run win.
The Mets have a clear edge at home with stronger advanced pitching metrics and a lineup that's been producing with runners in scoring position. Pirates' bats are ice cold away from PNC Park, and the line’s been rock steady—no trap here. Mets are my boys, but the data backs it up: this should be a clean two-run win.
Astros MoneylineAstros have the superior lineup and bullpen stats at home, and the line's holding steady with no funny movement. Royals are scrappy but their recent road bats don't intimidate. Data says Houston edges it, but not a runaway—just a pro's play, not a public favorite.
Astros have the superior lineup and bullpen stats at home, and the line's holding steady with no funny movement. Royals are scrappy but their recent road bats don't intimidate. Data says Houston edges it, but not a runaway—just a pro's play, not a public favorite.
Yankees MoneylineYankees bats are white-hot, ranking top-3 in OPS over the last 10 games, and their bullpen is lights-out. Mariners struggle against righties and can't match NY's power. No line movement or trap signals—just a straight edge for the pinstripes. This is a classic road spot where stats and momentum say Yankees handle business.
Yankees bats are white-hot, ranking top-3 in OPS over the last 10 games, and their bullpen is lights-out. Mariners struggle against righties and can't match NY's power. No line movement or trap signals—just a straight edge for the pinstripes. This is a classic road spot where stats and momentum say Yankees handle business.
Dodgers -1.5Dodgers are rolling at home, outscoring opponents by more than 2 runs per game over the past two weeks. Oakland’s bullpen is a gas can and their lineup can’t keep up with LA’s firepower. No line movement and no trap signals—this is a classic case of the better team smashing a cellar-dweller. Lay the runline with confidence.
Dodgers are rolling at home, outscoring opponents by more than 2 runs per game over the past two weeks. Oakland’s bullpen is a gas can and their lineup can’t keep up with LA’s firepower. No line movement and no trap signals—this is a classic case of the better team smashing a cellar-dweller. Lay the runline with confidence.
Player props
16Abreu is slugging .279 with a strong OBP (.377) and is red-hot over the last 10 games (5 hits in 6 recent at-bats, .833 average). He has at least one hit in 4 of his last 5 games and is seeing the ball very well. Even facing a tough Tigers pitching staff, his recent form and season-long consistency make the over very likely. Implied probability is 66.7%; I estimate true probability at 76%.
Abreu is slugging .279 with a strong OBP (.377) and is red-hot over the last 10 games (5 hits in 6 recent at-bats, .833 average). He has at least one hit in 4 of his last 5 games and is seeing the ball very well. Even facing a tough Tigers pitching staff, his recent form and season-long consistency make the over very likely. Implied probability is 66.7%; I estimate true probability at 76%.
Torkelson is batting .238 but has been in great form, with 3 hits in his last 6 at-bats (.500 in last 10). With a strong SLG (.510) and 36 hits in 42 games, he is a solid bet for at least one hit. The line at -160 (implied 61.5%) has value given his hit probability is closer to 70% based on recent and season-long trends.
Torkelson is batting .238 but has been in great form, with 3 hits in his last 6 at-bats (.500 in last 10). With a strong SLG (.510) and 36 hits in 42 games, he is a solid bet for at least one hit. The line at -160 (implied 61.5%) has value given his hit probability is closer to 70% based on recent and season-long trends.
De La Cruz is averaging .244 on the season and has 40 hits in 42 games, indicating strong consistency. He has 2 hits in his last 7 at-bats (.286), and faces a White Sox pitching staff that struggles with contact. With a hit rate over 90% in games started this year, he is a strong candidate to record at least one hit.
De La Cruz is averaging .244 on the season and has 40 hits in 42 games, indicating strong consistency. He has 2 hits in his last 7 at-bats (.286), and faces a White Sox pitching staff that struggles with contact. With a hit rate over 90% in games started this year, he is a strong candidate to record at least one hit.
Friedl is hitting .276 on the season, and though his recent form is slightly below his season average (2 hits in last 9 AB, .222), he has 43 hits in 39 games. Facing a White Sox pitching staff with a 4.01 ERA starter and below-average bullpen, Friedl should see favorable matchups to reach this mark.
Friedl is hitting .276 on the season, and though his recent form is slightly below his season average (2 hits in last 9 AB, .222), he has 43 hits in 39 games. Facing a White Sox pitching staff with a 4.01 ERA starter and below-average bullpen, Friedl should see favorable matchups to reach this mark.
De La Cruz fills the stat sheet: 40 hits, 29 RBI, and 26 runs in 42 games (2.3 per game). He is the Reds' most dynamic offensive player and faces a below-average starter (Davis Martin, 4.01 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). Even if he only gets on base once, his stolen base threat and middle-of-the-order role give him ample routes to go over 1.5.
De La Cruz fills the stat sheet: 40 hits, 29 RBI, and 26 runs in 42 games (2.3 per game). He is the Reds' most dynamic offensive player and faces a below-average starter (Davis Martin, 4.01 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). Even if he only gets on base once, his stolen base threat and middle-of-the-order role give him ample routes to go over 1.5.
Aranda is batting an elite .342 on the season with a .429 OBP and .981 OPS, showing remarkable consistency. He has 39 hits in 36 games, averaging over 1 hit per game. Toronto is starting Jose Berrios (1.41 WHIP), who has been hittable. Given Aranda's consistency and Berrios's tendency to allow baserunners, the over on 0.5 hits is a strong play.
Aranda is batting an elite .342 on the season with a .429 OBP and .981 OPS, showing remarkable consistency. He has 39 hits in 36 games, averaging over 1 hit per game. Toronto is starting Jose Berrios (1.41 WHIP), who has been hittable. Given Aranda's consistency and Berrios's tendency to allow baserunners, the over on 0.5 hits is a strong play.
Bichette has 48 hits in 40 games (.281 average) and is a regular at the top of the order with a strong track record of putting balls in play. He faces Shane Baz (4.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), who has struggled at times with command and contact. Even with a recent slight dip (0.250 in last 10), Bichette’s contact skills make the over 0.5 hits a strong, high-probability bet.
Bichette has 48 hits in 40 games (.281 average) and is a regular at the top of the order with a strong track record of putting balls in play. He faces Shane Baz (4.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), who has struggled at times with command and contact. Even with a recent slight dip (0.250 in last 10), Bichette’s contact skills make the over 0.5 hits a strong, high-probability bet.
Guerrero Jr. is hitting .285 with 43 hits in 40 games and a .789 OPS. He’s coming off a strong stretch (0.333 last 10) and faces Baz, who allows nearly a hit per inning. Guerrero’s consistency, recent form, and matchup against a hittable starter make the over 0.5 hits a high-confidence selection.
Guerrero Jr. is hitting .285 with 43 hits in 40 games and a .789 OPS. He’s coming off a strong stretch (0.333 last 10) and faces Baz, who allows nearly a hit per inning. Guerrero’s consistency, recent form, and matchup against a hittable starter make the over 0.5 hits a high-confidence selection.
Despite a slow start to the year, Lowe has hit .333 over his last 18 at-bats and is showing signs of heating up. He faces Berrios, who has shown vulnerability with a 1.41 WHIP. Lowe is a streaky hitter, and his recent trend coupled with a favorable pitching matchup supports the over.
Despite a slow start to the year, Lowe has hit .333 over his last 18 at-bats and is showing signs of heating up. He faces Berrios, who has shown vulnerability with a 1.41 WHIP. Lowe is a streaky hitter, and his recent trend coupled with a favorable pitching matchup supports the over.
Alonso has a .318 batting average over 42 games (49 hits in 154 ABs) and has been a reliable source of hits. While his recent 1-for-9 stretch (last 10 games) is cold, his season-long consistency and a favorable matchup against Mitch Keller (4.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) suggest positive regression. Alonso has a hit in over 75% of his games, and Keller allows a high number of baserunners, making this a strong play.
Alonso has a .318 batting average over 42 games (49 hits in 154 ABs) and has been a reliable source of hits. While his recent 1-for-9 stretch (last 10 games) is cold, his season-long consistency and a favorable matchup against Mitch Keller (4.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) suggest positive regression. Alonso has a hit in over 75% of his games, and Keller allows a high number of baserunners, making this a strong play.
Ozuna has a .271 season average and is hitting .333 over his last 10 games (2-for-6). He consistently bats in the heart of a strong Braves lineup and has 35 hits in 38 games. The line is high juice but his recent form and season-long consistency against average pitching (Irvin: 1.19 WHIP, 4.00 ERA) make this a strong probability play.
Ozuna has a .271 season average and is hitting .333 over his last 10 games (2-for-6). He consistently bats in the heart of a strong Braves lineup and has 35 hits in 38 games. The line is high juice but his recent form and season-long consistency against average pitching (Irvin: 1.19 WHIP, 4.00 ERA) make this a strong probability play.
Olson has 33 hits in 41 games and, despite a .224 average, his power profile (7 HR, 6 2B) means he often clears this line in one swing. He’s due for positive regression and faces Jake Irvin, who allows a .246 BAA. Olson’s spray chart and underlying metrics suggest he's likely to record at least one base.
Olson has 33 hits in 41 games and, despite a .224 average, his power profile (7 HR, 6 2B) means he often clears this line in one swing. He’s due for positive regression and faces Jake Irvin, who allows a .246 BAA. Olson’s spray chart and underlying metrics suggest he's likely to record at least one base.
Riley owns a .284 average this season (48 hits in 41 games) and hits in the middle of the Braves order. While his recent 2-for-8 stretch is below average, his consistent contact and matchup with the Nationals’ pitching staff provide a high probability of at least one hit.
Riley owns a .284 average this season (48 hits in 41 games) and hits in the middle of the Braves order. While his recent 2-for-8 stretch is below average, his consistent contact and matchup with the Nationals’ pitching staff provide a high probability of at least one hit.
Hoerner has a .280 season average and 42 hits in 38 games, showing reliable consistency. He’s 2-for-4 in his last 10 games, and his high contact rate supports this pick. Miami’s Max Meyer allows baserunners (1.35 WHIP), suggesting opportunity. True probability is estimated at 0.73, which offers positive value at these odds.
Hoerner has a .280 season average and 42 hits in 38 games, showing reliable consistency. He’s 2-for-4 in his last 10 games, and his high contact rate supports this pick. Miami’s Max Meyer allows baserunners (1.35 WHIP), suggesting opportunity. True probability is estimated at 0.73, which offers positive value at these odds.
Happ is batting .269 on the year and .333 in his last 10 at-bats, indicating a strong recent form. His season OBP is excellent (.364), and he’s facing a pitcher (Meyer) with an ERA over 4 and a WHIP of 1.35. Estimated true hit probability is 0.72, giving us positive expected value on this line.
Happ is batting .269 on the year and .333 in his last 10 at-bats, indicating a strong recent form. His season OBP is excellent (.364), and he’s facing a pitcher (Meyer) with an ERA over 4 and a WHIP of 1.35. Estimated true hit probability is 0.72, giving us positive expected value on this line.
Stowers has a .288 season average and is hitting .333 over his last 12 at-bats, showing excellent consistency. He’s been a regular contributor and faces Ben Brown, who has a 5.09 ERA and a high WHIP (1.75). Probability of at least one hit is estimated at 0.67, making this a strong value play.
Stowers has a .288 season average and is hitting .333 over his last 12 at-bats, showing excellent consistency. He’s been a regular contributor and faces Ben Brown, who has a 5.09 ERA and a high WHIP (1.75). Probability of at least one hit is estimated at 0.67, making this a strong value play.