Sports picks for Monday, May 12, 2025
27 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
5
Celtics -6.5The Celtics are rolling—top-3 in both offensive and defensive rating over the last 10 games, and they’ve been covering on the road all season. Knicks are banged up and lack the firepower to keep pace if Boston pushes tempo. No tricky line moves or revenge angles—just a clear gap in class and health. Don’t overthink it: Celtics should handle business.
The Celtics are rolling—top-3 in both offensive and defensive rating over the last 10 games, and they’ve been covering on the road all season. Knicks are banged up and lack the firepower to keep pace if Boston pushes tempo. No tricky line moves or revenge angles—just a clear gap in class and health. Don’t overthink it: Celtics should handle business.
Timberwolves -5.5Minnesota’s defense is suffocating right now, and they’ve been covering spreads like clockwork against teams with shaky benches. Warriors look old, thin at the 5, and haven’t strung together consistent offense—especially at home. Line is stable, no trap, and the Wolves’ physicality is a nightmare matchup for this version of Golden State.
Minnesota’s defense is suffocating right now, and they’ve been covering spreads like clockwork against teams with shaky benches. Warriors look old, thin at the 5, and haven’t strung together consistent offense—especially at home. Line is stable, no trap, and the Wolves’ physicality is a nightmare matchup for this version of Golden State.
Phillies -1.5Phillies are rolling with a top-3 bullpen ERA, elite run differential, and a home record that's among the best in baseball. Cards' lineup is slumping, and their pen can't hold late leads. No sharp line movement—Philly should handle business at home with margin.
Phillies are rolling with a top-3 bullpen ERA, elite run differential, and a home record that's among the best in baseball. Cards' lineup is slumping, and their pen can't hold late leads. No sharp line movement—Philly should handle business at home with margin.
Mets -1.5Mets at home have the bullpen edge, recent offensive uptick, and their starter has a WHIP advantage over the Pirates' arm. Line is stable and Mets bats are heating up. Not chasing the chalky ML—I'm attacking the Mets run line at +145, trusting the stats and a little Queens swagger.
Mets at home have the bullpen edge, recent offensive uptick, and their starter has a WHIP advantage over the Pirates' arm. Line is stable and Mets bats are heating up. Not chasing the chalky ML—I'm attacking the Mets run line at +145, trusting the stats and a little Queens swagger.
Yankees MoneylineYankees have a top-3 offense in OPS and are mashing right-handed pitching, while Seattle’s lineup has been ice cold at home all year. No significant injuries or line movement—just a better team flexing its muscles. This is a straight numbers play, and my old Yankee heart likes it even more.
Yankees have a top-3 offense in OPS and are mashing right-handed pitching, while Seattle’s lineup has been ice cold at home all year. No significant injuries or line movement—just a better team flexing its muscles. This is a straight numbers play, and my old Yankee heart likes it even more.
Player props
22Kwan is batting .331 on the season, is 3 for his last 7 (.429), and has 52 hits in 40 games. His consistency and recent form make the over 0.5 hits a high-confidence play, even at heavy juice.
Kwan is batting .331 on the season, is 3 for his last 7 (.429), and has 52 hits in 40 games. His consistency and recent form make the over 0.5 hits a high-confidence play, even at heavy juice.
Peralta has 48 strikeouts in 45.1 IP (9.5 K/9), and notched 8 Ks in 5 IP last time out. Cleveland has some swing-and-miss in their lineup. The line is fair and Peralta has exceeded this in 4 of last 6 starts.
Peralta has 48 strikeouts in 45.1 IP (9.5 K/9), and notched 8 Ks in 5 IP last time out. Cleveland has some swing-and-miss in their lineup. The line is fair and Peralta has exceeded this in 4 of last 6 starts.
Lively has 28 Ks in 41.2 IP (6.0 K/9), and just 3 Ks in 5 IP in his last outing. He has not shown much strikeout upside and faces a Brewers team with solid contact rates. The under is a strong play.
Lively has 28 Ks in 41.2 IP (6.0 K/9), and just 3 Ks in 5 IP in his last outing. He has not shown much strikeout upside and faces a Brewers team with solid contact rates. The under is a strong play.
Torkelson has a .247 average on the season and is incredibly hot lately, going 3-for-6 (.500) in his last 10 at-bats. Given his recent form and season consistency, he is a strong candidate to record at least one hit.
Torkelson has a .247 average on the season and is incredibly hot lately, going 3-for-6 (.500) in his last 10 at-bats. Given his recent form and season consistency, he is a strong candidate to record at least one hit.
Abreu is hitting .279 with a .380 OBP and has been red-hot recently, going 5-for-6 (.833) in his last 10 at-bats. His form and overall production make him a high-probability option to record a hit.
Abreu is hitting .279 with a .380 OBP and has been red-hot recently, going 5-for-6 (.833) in his last 10 at-bats. His form and overall production make him a high-probability option to record a hit.
McKinstry has a .274 average and has hit safely in 34 of 37 games this season. He is a consistent contact hitter and faces a Red Sox pitching staff that has been inconsistent.
McKinstry has a .274 average and has hit safely in 34 of 37 games this season. He is a consistent contact hitter and faces a Red Sox pitching staff that has been inconsistent.
Carpenter is batting .284 with 9 HR and a .537 SLG. He has hit safely in 38 of 38 games and is a strong candidate to reach at least one total base, especially against Houck’s struggles.
Carpenter is batting .284 with 9 HR and a .537 SLG. He has hit safely in 38 of 38 games and is a strong candidate to reach at least one total base, especially against Houck’s struggles.
Schwarber has a .269 AVG and .593 SLG on the season, with 14 HRs, 39 hits in 40 games, and is 4-for-9 (.444) with 2 HR in his last 10 ABs. Facing Liberatore (career .285 BAA vs LHH) and a Cardinals bullpen that has struggled, he is highly likely to get at least one base.
Schwarber has a .269 AVG and .593 SLG on the season, with 14 HRs, 39 hits in 40 games, and is 4-for-9 (.444) with 2 HR in his last 10 ABs. Facing Liberatore (career .285 BAA vs LHH) and a Cardinals bullpen that has struggled, he is highly likely to get at least one base.
Arenado is hitting .270 on the year and .500 (4-for-8) in his last 10 ABs. He’s a consistent contact hitter and has a favorable home ballpark split, making one hit a strong baseline.
Arenado is hitting .270 on the year and .500 (4-for-8) in his last 10 ABs. He’s a consistent contact hitter and has a favorable home ballpark split, making one hit a strong baseline.
Donovan is batting .318 with 48 hits in 39 games and .375 (3-for-8) in his last 10 ABs. He has 12 doubles on the year and gets on base consistently, making this a high-floor play.
Donovan is batting .318 with 48 hits in 39 games and .375 (3-for-8) in his last 10 ABs. He has 12 doubles on the year and gets on base consistently, making this a high-floor play.
Bohm has 36 hits in 37 games and is 2-for-5 (.400) recently. He makes consistent contact and faces a pitcher (Liberatore) who allows a high batting average, increasing his hit probability.
Bohm has 36 hits in 37 games and is 2-for-5 (.400) recently. He makes consistent contact and faces a pitcher (Liberatore) who allows a high batting average, increasing his hit probability.
Peterson averages 8.5 K/9 with 36 strikeouts in 38.1 innings. The Pirates' lineup is struggling offensively in recent games, with most hitters hitting under .250 in their last 10 at-bats. This, coupled with Peterson's solid strikeout rate, makes the over 4.5 K a strong play.
Peterson averages 8.5 K/9 with 36 strikeouts in 38.1 innings. The Pirates' lineup is struggling offensively in recent games, with most hitters hitting under .250 in their last 10 at-bats. This, coupled with Peterson's solid strikeout rate, makes the over 4.5 K a strong play.
While Skenes' full season stats are not provided, he is a highly touted prospect and is likely facing a Mets lineup with multiple cold bats (several key Mets, including Alonso, Lindor, and Vientos, have 0-1 hits in their last 7-11 at-bats). The Mets strike out at an above-average rate, supporting the over.
While Skenes' full season stats are not provided, he is a highly touted prospect and is likely facing a Mets lineup with multiple cold bats (several key Mets, including Alonso, Lindor, and Vientos, have 0-1 hits in their last 7-11 at-bats). The Mets strike out at an above-average rate, supporting the over.
Hayes is batting .253 on the season and has 2 hits in his last 8 at-bats (.250) — consistent with his season average. He has a high probability to notch at least one hit, especially against a lefty in Peterson, against whom he has historically performed better.
Hayes is batting .253 on the season and has 2 hits in his last 8 at-bats (.250) — consistent with his season average. He has a high probability to notch at least one hit, especially against a lefty in Peterson, against whom he has historically performed better.
Despite a recent cold stretch (0 hits in last 7 at-bats), Lindor is hitting .301 on the season with a .877 OPS, and regularly bounces back. He is facing Falter (4.36 ERA), giving him a good chance to break out of his mini-slump with at least one hit.
Despite a recent cold stretch (0 hits in last 7 at-bats), Lindor is hitting .301 on the season with a .877 OPS, and regularly bounces back. He is facing Falter (4.36 ERA), giving him a good chance to break out of his mini-slump with at least one hit.
Irvin averages 6.2 K/9 (33 Ks in 48 IP) and is facing a Braves lineup with several hitters in recent slumps (Olson, Albies, Harris II all hitting .250 or less last 10 at-bats). The Braves have been striking out at an above-average rate, giving Irvin a strong chance to reach at least 4 Ks.
Irvin averages 6.2 K/9 (33 Ks in 48 IP) and is facing a Braves lineup with several hitters in recent slumps (Olson, Albies, Harris II all hitting .250 or less last 10 at-bats). The Braves have been striking out at an above-average rate, giving Irvin a strong chance to reach at least 4 Ks.
Olson is hitting .224 on the season but has a .356 OBP and is a streaky hitter with good power. While he's cold recently, Irvin is allowing a .247 BAA and 5.5 hits allowed is the line for his outing, so Olson should get on base at least once.
Olson is hitting .224 on the season but has a .356 OBP and is a streaky hitter with good power. While he's cold recently, Irvin is allowing a .247 BAA and 5.5 hits allowed is the line for his outing, so Olson should get on base at least once.
Ruiz is hitting .292 on the season and .500 (2-for-4) in his last 10 at-bats, showing strong recent form. With Bryce Elder (Braves starter) carrying a 4.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, Ruiz has a favorable matchup to record at least one hit.
Ruiz is hitting .292 on the season and .500 (2-for-4) in his last 10 at-bats, showing strong recent form. With Bryce Elder (Braves starter) carrying a 4.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, Ruiz has a favorable matchup to record at least one hit.
Riley is hitting .283 with 8 HR and 47 hits in 40 games. He has extra-base power and faces a pitcher (Irvin) who allows over a hit per inning. Riley's ability to get doubles/homers boosts his likelihood to reach 2+ total bases.
Riley is hitting .283 with 8 HR and 47 hits in 40 games. He has extra-base power and faces a pitcher (Irvin) who allows over a hit per inning. Riley's ability to get doubles/homers boosts his likelihood to reach 2+ total bases.
Happ is batting .269 on the season and hitting .333 (4-for-12) in his last 10 games. He's been a consistent source of base hits and faces Max Meyer, who allows a 1.35 WHIP. Happ's recent form and season-long contact rate suggest strong value on over 0.5 hits.
Happ is batting .269 on the season and hitting .333 (4-for-12) in his last 10 games. He's been a consistent source of base hits and faces Max Meyer, who allows a 1.35 WHIP. Happ's recent form and season-long contact rate suggest strong value on over 0.5 hits.
Hoerner owns a .281 batting average for the season and has a .500 average over his last 4 recent at-bats. He’s a high-contact hitter and should have plenty of opportunity to reach base against Meyer and Miami's bullpen.
Hoerner owns a .281 batting average for the season and has a .500 average over his last 4 recent at-bats. He’s a high-contact hitter and should have plenty of opportunity to reach base against Meyer and Miami's bullpen.
Stowers is hitting .287 on the season and .333 in his last 10 games. He’s facing Ben Brown, who has a 1.75 WHIP and has struggled in recent starts, making Stowers a strong candidate for at least one hit.
Stowers is hitting .287 on the season and .333 in his last 10 games. He’s facing Ben Brown, who has a 1.75 WHIP and has struggled in recent starts, making Stowers a strong candidate for at least one hit.