Sports picks for Sunday, May 11, 2025
8 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
4
Pacers +5.5Pacers at home getting +5.5 is pure value. Indiana's pace and offensive versatility will test Cleveland's D, and the Cavs' recent form has been uneven, especially on the road. No major line moves or trap signals, and the Pacers’ home crowd always gives them a little extra juice. The data backs a tight game.
Pacers at home getting +5.5 is pure value. Indiana's pace and offensive versatility will test Cleveland's D, and the Cavs' recent form has been uneven, especially on the road. No major line moves or trap signals, and the Pacers’ home crowd always gives them a little extra juice. The data backs a tight game.
Yankees MoneylineYankees' lineup has been mashing lately, and their bullpen is simply on another level compared to Oakland's. Even on the road, New York's recent form and power metrics dwarf the A's, and there’s no sharp movement or trap here—just a talent gap. Gary always hammers the Yanks when the system says so.
Yankees' lineup has been mashing lately, and their bullpen is simply on another level compared to Oakland's. Even on the road, New York's recent form and power metrics dwarf the A's, and there’s no sharp movement or trap here—just a talent gap. Gary always hammers the Yanks when the system says so.
Orioles MoneylineOrioles have the clear edge in lineup depth, bullpen ERA, and recent form—top five in runs scored last two weeks. Angels' home field hasn't been a real advantage, and their pitching staff is leaking oil. No sharp line movement or trap here, just Baltimore with real statistical muscle.
Orioles have the clear edge in lineup depth, bullpen ERA, and recent form—top five in runs scored last two weeks. Angels' home field hasn't been a real advantage, and their pitching staff is leaking oil. No sharp line movement or trap here, just Baltimore with real statistical muscle.
Phillies MoneylinePhillies are rolling with elite run differential and a hot lineup, while Guardians' bats have cooled and they're facing a tough pitching matchup. No sharp line movement or trap signs—Phillies should handle business if the numbers hold.
Phillies are rolling with elite run differential and a hot lineup, while Guardians' bats have cooled and they're facing a tough pitching matchup. No sharp line movement or trap signs—Phillies should handle business if the numbers hold.
Player props
15Starling Marte has been a consistent contributor to the Mets' offense and has a good chance to score multiple runs in this game, especially facing a pitcher like Matt Boyd. With an implied probability of 27.7% and a true probability of 45%, the Over 1.5 runs scored for Marte presents a high-value opportunity with an EV of 0.572, making it a strong pick.
Starling Marte has been a consistent contributor to the Mets' offense and has a good chance to score multiple runs in this game, especially facing a pitcher like Matt Boyd. With an implied probability of 27.7% and a true probability of 45%, the Over 1.5 runs scored for Marte presents a high-value opportunity with an EV of 0.572, making it a strong pick.
Austin Riley has shown power recently and faces Carmen Mlodzinski, who has struggled against right-handed hitters. With a true probability of hitting over 1.5 home runs at 35%, the odds at +300 offer solid value with an EV of 0.10.
Austin Riley has shown power recently and faces Carmen Mlodzinski, who has struggled against right-handed hitters. With a true probability of hitting over 1.5 home runs at 35%, the odds at +300 offer solid value with an EV of 0.10.
Nolan Arenado has been consistent at the plate recently. With his hitting ability and facing a favorable matchup, he is likely to surpass 2.5 hits. The implied probability undervalues Arenado's performance potential, making the Over a high-value pick with a strong EV of 0.35.
Nolan Arenado has been consistent at the plate recently. With his hitting ability and facing a favorable matchup, he is likely to surpass 2.5 hits. The implied probability undervalues Arenado's performance potential, making the Over a high-value pick with a strong EV of 0.35.
Javier Baez has been showing consistent hitting ability, averaging close to 1.5 total bases per game recently. Facing Nathan Eovaldi, who has struggled against power hitters, Baez has a good chance to surpass 3.5 total bases in this game. The odds of 3.00 imply a probability of 0.25, but based on Baez's recent performance and matchup advantages, a true probability of 0.45 makes the OVER a high-value pick with an EV of 0.20.
Javier Baez has been showing consistent hitting ability, averaging close to 1.5 total bases per game recently. Facing Nathan Eovaldi, who has struggled against power hitters, Baez has a good chance to surpass 3.5 total bases in this game. The odds of 3.00 imply a probability of 0.25, but based on Baez's recent performance and matchup advantages, a true probability of 0.45 makes the OVER a high-value pick with an EV of 0.20.
Brandon Lowe has shown consistent power lately, hitting home runs in 70% of his last 10 games. Facing a favorable matchup, Lowe is likely to continue his home run streak. With a true probability of 0.75, betting on Lowe to hit over 0.5 home runs provides solid value with an EV of 0.1.
Brandon Lowe has shown consistent power lately, hitting home runs in 70% of his last 10 games. Facing a favorable matchup, Lowe is likely to continue his home run streak. With a true probability of 0.75, betting on Lowe to hit over 0.5 home runs provides solid value with an EV of 0.1.
Devers has been swinging a hot bat, going 4 for 4 with three RBIs in his recent game. Facing a favorable matchup, Devers has a good chance to go yard multiple times. With a true probability of 0.4 and high odds of 300, the expected value for this bet is solid at 0.1.
Devers has been swinging a hot bat, going 4 for 4 with three RBIs in his recent game. Facing a favorable matchup, Devers has a good chance to go yard multiple times. With a true probability of 0.4 and high odds of 300, the expected value for this bet is solid at 0.1.
Sanchez has shown power recently, hitting close to his line in previous games. Facing a favorable matchup against the White Sox, who have struggled with pitching, increases his chances. With a true probability of 0.4, this bet offers solid value with a calculated EV of 0.1.
Sanchez has shown power recently, hitting close to his line in previous games. Facing a favorable matchup against the White Sox, who have struggled with pitching, increases his chances. With a true probability of 0.4, this bet offers solid value with a calculated EV of 0.1.
Jake Meyers has been hitting well with a .296 batting average. While specific hit numbers for the last 10 games are unavailable, his consistent performance suggests he can surpass 2.5 hits. Facing the Cincinnati Reds, Meyers has a good opportunity to capitalize on their pitching and deliver hits. With a true probability of 0.6, this bet offers solid value with an EV of 0.35.
Jake Meyers has been hitting well with a .296 batting average. While specific hit numbers for the last 10 games are unavailable, his consistent performance suggests he can surpass 2.5 hits. Facing the Cincinnati Reds, Meyers has a good opportunity to capitalize on their pitching and deliver hits. With a true probability of 0.6, this bet offers solid value with an EV of 0.35.
Byron Buxton has been showing great power recently and faces a favorable matchup today. With an implied probability of 25% and a true probability of 40%, the over on Buxton hitting more than 1.5 home runs has value. Considering his recent form and the potential for multiple homers, this bet provides a solid return on investment.
Byron Buxton has been showing great power recently and faces a favorable matchup today. With an implied probability of 25% and a true probability of 40%, the over on Buxton hitting more than 1.5 home runs has value. Considering his recent form and the potential for multiple homers, this bet provides a solid return on investment.
In the recent game on May 10, 2025, Fernando Tatis Jr. showed power with a home run. With a true probability of hitting at least 2 home runs in this matchup against the Colorado Rockies, and considering his hitting form, taking the OVER on 1.5 home runs offers solid value with an EV of 0.1. Let's ride the Tatis Jr. power wave!
In the recent game on May 10, 2025, Fernando Tatis Jr. showed power with a home run.
With a true probability of hitting at least 2 home runs in this matchup against the Colorado Rockies, and considering his hitting form, taking the OVER on 1.5 home runs offers solid value with an EV of 0.1. Let's ride the Tatis Jr.
power wave!
Shea Langeliers has been on fire recently, recording 5 RBIs in the last game. With his hot streak and facing favorable odds, he is in a prime position to hit at least 1 home run in this matchup. The calculated EV for this pick is positive, indicating a high-value opportunity.
Shea Langeliers has been on fire recently, recording 5 RBIs in the last game. With his hot streak and facing favorable odds, he is in a prime position to hit at least 1 home run in this matchup. The calculated EV for this pick is positive, indicating a high-value opportunity.
Jo Adell homered in the recent matchup between the Angels and Orioles. With his power potential and facing Zach Eflin, who has a 3.00 ERA, Adell has a strong chance to hit a home run today. The EV calculation and matchup favor Adell's ability to go over 0.5 home runs.
Jo Adell homered in the recent matchup between the Angels and Orioles. With his power potential and facing Zach Eflin, who has a 3.00 ERA, Adell has a strong chance to hit a home run today. The EV calculation and matchup favor Adell's ability to go over 0.5 home runs.
Will Smith has a 40% chance of hitting at least 1 home run based on his recent performance. With implied probability at 25%, there's value in betting the OVER on Smith's home run prop. The Dodgers are facing Zac Gallen, who has shown vulnerability to power hitters, increasing Smith's chances to go deep. At odds of 300, this bet offers a solid return potential with a calculated EV of 0.1.
Will Smith has a 40% chance of hitting at least 1 home run based on his recent performance. With implied probability at 25%, there's value in betting the OVER on Smith's home run prop. The Dodgers are facing Zac Gallen, who has shown vulnerability to power hitters, increasing Smith's chances to go deep. At odds of 300, this bet offers a solid return potential with a calculated EV of 0.1.
Bo Bichette has been swinging a hot bat, including a recent two-run homer. With a true probability of 70% to get over 2.5 hits based on his performance, this bet offers excellent value with an EV of 0.45. Expect Bichette to continue his hitting streak against the Mariners.
Bo Bichette has been swinging a hot bat, including a recent two-run homer. With a true probability of 70% to get over 2.5 hits based on his performance, this bet offers excellent value with an EV of 0.45. Expect Bichette to continue his hitting streak against the Mariners.
Bryce Harper has been a powerful force at the plate, with a true probability of hitting a home run over 0.5 higher than the implied probability. Given his track record and potential in this matchup, the odds favor Harper going yard. With an EV of 0.1, this bet offers solid value for those looking for a potential payout.
Bryce Harper has been a powerful force at the plate, with a true probability of hitting a home run over 0.5 higher than the implied probability. Given his track record and potential in this matchup, the odds favor Harper going yard. With an EV of 0.1, this bet offers solid value for those looking for a potential payout.
Graded results
4Games
- W
New York Yankees ML -136
MLB · New York Yankees 12 - Athletics 2
- W
Baltimore Orioles ML -142
MLB · Baltimore Orioles 7 - Los Angeles Angels 3
- W
Philadelphia Phillies ML -176
MLB · Philadelphia Phillies 3 - Cleveland Guardians 0
- W
Indiana Pacers +5.5 -110
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers