UTSA Roadrunners picks

It's noon Eastern under the Alamodome roof. Colorado State walks into its first road game of the season with its starting quarterback doubtful and a backup whose vision, in Jim Mora's words, is "not entirely restored." The quarterback news is serious. Hauss Hejny has carried this offense: 619 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception. He left the BYU game in the first quarter. K'saan Farrar then went 13-of-23 for 70 yards against the Cougar starters, and the Rams didn't score in the second or third quarters. Whether Farrar or Darius Curry starts today, it is a real downgrade. It comes against a UTSA defense that ranks 1st of 138 at limiting explosive plays, and explosive plays are how Colorado State, 7th in explosiveness, has been scoring. So why take the points? Because 13.5 asks UTSA to win by more than two touchdowns, and this offense hasn't won by that much against anyone except UT Rio Grande Valley. The Roadrunners rank 135th in explosiveness, 115th in points per scoring opportunity and 118th on passing downs. They convert 20% of their third downs and commit more penalties than any team in the country, 11.3 per game for 115 yards. Owen McCown threw for 214 yards on 42 attempts at Texas State and 70 yards at Texas. Jeff Traylor says his team is two to four weeks from where he expected it to be. On the road UTSA has averaged 18.5 points. An offense that moves the ball but stalls near the goal line is a hard one to lay two scores with. The opponent-adjusted ratings agree. SP+ has UTSA 74th and Colorado State 96th, and FPI has them 76th and 96th. That's a gap of about five points on a neutral field, and those ratings include a Rams offense that ranked 43rd in points added per play. Home field and the quarterback change have to make up the rest of the 13.5, and I think that asks too much of them. Colorado State also has strengths that don't depend on Hejny. Mel Brown averages 9.8 yards a carry and the team runs for 177.3 yards a game, so a backup quarterback can hand the ball off and keep the clock running. UTSA has 2 sacks in three games, so whoever starts for the Rams shouldn't be under constant pressure. UTSA center Ben Rios called his line's pass protection "definitely not to the standard" after Texas. Meanwhile the Colorado State defense has 5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss and 7 interceptions, three of them from CJ Blocker. Takeaways are how a big underdog stays close. The risk is clear. Colorado State's defense ranks 120th in success rate allowed, and UTSA stays on schedule, 16th on standard downs. If the Roadrunners finally finish their drives, this game gets away. I'd still rather bet with what UTSA's offense has shown all season than against it, and I'm getting plus money to do it.