Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners

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• GARY'S PICK

  

  MEL BROWNANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5

  NCAAFColorado State· +135

  12:00 PM ET

  GARY'S TAKE

  If Colorado State scores today, I expect Mel Brown to be the one carrying it in. With Hauss Hejny doubtful, the passing game that produced 10 touchdowns through the air in three games is effectively gone. K'saan Farrar went 13-of-23 for 70 yards against BYU, and whether he or Darius Curry starts, Jim Mora isn't going to ask either of them to win this game with his arm. The plan is to hand the ball off, and Brown gets it more than anyone else in that backfield. He's averaging 9.8 yards a carry for a team running for 177.3 a game. That changes how the Rams' receivers should be priced. Jackson Harper at +145 has two touchdown catches, but both came from a quarterback who won't be on the field. Brown is the Colorado State scorer whose chances actually get better with a backup under center. Inside the 10, a backup quarterback's offense turns into a running offense, and Brown should get most of those carries. The matchup has one real problem. UTSA ranks 1st in the country at limiting explosive plays, so I don't expect the long runs that built Brown's average. He probably won't score from 50 yards out. The Rams can still get close through other means. UTSA commits 11.3 penalties a game for 115 yards, and the Colorado State defense has already forced 7 interceptions. Short fields will come from those, and short fields finish with a handoff. The number +135 implies about 42.6%. The lead back on a run-first offense, with its best passer sidelined, should find the end zone at least that often against a UTSA defense that has given up enough to be a 13.5-point favorite, not a runaway one. This lines up with my Rams pick: I'm betting Colorado State stays close by running the ball, and Brown's touchdown is how that shows up on the scoreboard.

  ×

  Mel Brown
  Anytime Touchdown over 0.5

  +135 · 12:00 PM ET

  Colorado State

  Read Gary’s Take

  If Colorado State scores today, I expect Mel Brown to be the one carrying it in. With Hauss Hejny doubtful, the passing game that produced 10 touchdowns through the air in three games is effectively gone. K'saan Farrar went 13-of-23 for 70 yards against BYU, and whether he or Darius Curry starts, Jim Mora isn't going to ask either of them to win this game with his arm. The plan is to hand the ball off, and Brown gets it more than anyone else in that backfield. He's averaging 9.8 yards a carry for a team running for 177.3 a game.

  That changes how the Rams' receivers should be priced. Jackson Harper at +145 has two touchdown catches, but both came from a quarterback who won't be on the field. Brown is the Colorado State scorer whose chances actually get better with a backup under center. Inside the 10, a backup quarterback's offense turns into a running offense, and Brown should get most of those carries.

  The matchup has one real problem. UTSA ranks 1st in the country at limiting explosive plays, so I don't expect the long runs that built Brown's average. He probably won't score from 50 yards out. The Rams can still get close through other means. UTSA commits 11.3 penalties a game for 115 yards, and the Colorado State defense has already forced 7 interceptions. Short fields will come from those, and short fields finish with a handoff.

  The number +135 implies about 42.6%. The lead back on a run-first offense, with its best passer sidelined, should find the end zone at least that often against a UTSA defense that has given up enough to be a 13.5-point favorite, not a runaway one. This lines up with my Rams pick: I'm betting Colorado State stays close by running the ball, and Brown's touchdown is how that shows up on the scoreboard.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.