It's Halloween and Nevada Day at the Rose Bowl. No. 7 UCLA chases 8-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney, against a Nevada team that has started three different quarterbacks this season. UCLA should win this game. The question is whether this version of UCLA can win it by 23, and its own season says probably not. UCLA has covered 22.5 once in seven games: a 54-3 rout of Maryland that included two pick-sixes. Its other margins were 21, 18, 14, 2, 10 and 18. Since Ty Dieffenbach took over at quarterback, UCLA has scored 17 and 28. Dieffenbach has been steady, with one turnover in two starts, but not explosive. UCLA's style also limits the margin. It held the ball for more than 35 minutes in each of its last three games and had only 8 drives against Wisconsin. In Dieffenbach's starts, UCLA scored touchdowns on just 5 of 9 red-zone trips, and Mateen Bhaghani is 6-of-9 on field goals. Left tackle Jordan Davis has missed two straight games, and Wayne Knight (rib/oblique) may sit. Nevada also grinds; it held the ball 38:18 last week. Fewer possessions favor the underdog. Nevada's defense has held three FBS opponents to 14 points or fewer. Likely starter Luke Duncan, a UCLA transfer, went 18-of-29 with 2 TDs and no turnovers last week. Don't count on inside knowledge, though: Chesney's three coordinators all came over from James Madison. The risks are real. Nevada gave up 370 rushing yards to Air Force and 198 to North Dakota State, and UCLA ran for 245 last week. UCLA's defense has 22 takeaways, and Duncan threw two interceptions in 16 attempts against Montana State. UCLA's best path to covering is a blowout built on turnovers, which is why this is a lean and not a hammer. AP gives a 75% chance of rain, though the kickoff forecast is dry. Rain would mean fewer points, and that helps the underdog. With Minnesota next week, UCLA's starters should come out early if this gets out of hand. I'll take the points.
It's Halloween and Nevada Day at the Rose Bowl. No. 7 UCLA chases 8-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney, against a Nevada team that has started three different quarterbacks this season. UCLA should win this game. The question is whether this version of UCLA can win it by 23, and its own season says probably not.
UCLA has covered 22.5 once in seven games: a 54-3 rout of Maryland that included two pick-sixes. Its other margins were 21, 18, 14, 2, 10 and 18. Since Ty Dieffenbach took over at quarterback, UCLA has scored 17 and 28. Dieffenbach has been steady, with one turnover in two starts, but not explosive.
UCLA's style also limits the margin. It held the ball for more than 35 minutes in each of its last three games and had only 8 drives against Wisconsin. In Dieffenbach's starts, UCLA scored touchdowns on just 5 of 9 red-zone trips, and Mateen Bhaghani is 6-of-9 on field goals. Left tackle Jordan Davis has missed two straight games, and Wayne Knight (rib/oblique) may sit. Nevada also grinds; it held the ball 38:18 last week. Fewer possessions favor the underdog.
Nevada's defense has held three FBS opponents to 14 points or fewer. Likely starter Luke Duncan, a UCLA transfer, went 18-of-29 with 2 TDs and no turnovers last week. Don't count on inside knowledge, though: Chesney's three coordinators all came over from James Madison.
The risks are real. Nevada gave up 370 rushing yards to Air Force and 198 to North Dakota State, and UCLA ran for 245 last week. UCLA's defense has 22 takeaways, and Duncan threw two interceptions in 16 attempts against Montana State. UCLA's best path to covering is a blowout built on turnovers, which is why this is a lean and not a hammer.
AP gives a 75% chance of rain, though the kickoff forecast is dry. Rain would mean fewer points, and that helps the underdog. With Minnesota next week, UCLA's starters should come out early if this gets out of hand. I'll take the points.
Nevada +22.5