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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 26 · 1:30 PM

UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins

O/U 55.5 · SPREAD UCLA Bruins -2.5

GARY'S PICK
UCLA Moneyline
NCAAF@ Maryland· -125

UCLA
Moneyline

-125 · CASHED · UCLA 54 · MD 3

Maryland

The pick & result

Published pick
UCLA Bruins ML -125
Published odds
-125
Result
Won
Final score
54-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 46 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 20 4:43 PM
Close
Sep 26 1:17 PM
Move
SPREADUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)UCLA Bruins -2.5 (-118)+½
TOTAL58.5 (-108)56.5 (-108)−2
MONEYLINEUCLA Bruins -130UCLA Bruins -145−15
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 20 4:43 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)58.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -130 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 20 6:43 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)58.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -130 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 20 7:44 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -130 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 6:00 AMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 9:00 AMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 12:01 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-115)UCLA Bruins -130 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 1:02 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-115)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 4:03 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-110)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 5:03 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -130 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 6:03 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-115)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 7:04 PMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 21 8:04 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 22 12:06 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 22 8:30 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-108)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 22 11:32 AMUCLA Bruins -1 (-110)57.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -118 · Maryland Terrapins -102
Sep 22 12:33 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 23 6:00 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 23 8:59 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 23 12:04 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 23 3:05 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 23 4:06 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 24 5:24 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 25 10:31 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 25 1:01 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 25 2:01 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 25 7:34 PMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 5:00 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)55.5 (-112)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 8:31 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 9:00 AMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 9:43 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 9:53 AMUCLA Bruins -2 (-108)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 10:03 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 10:13 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-108)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 10:23 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 10:34 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 10:44 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -120 · Maryland Terrapins +100
Sep 26 10:54 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 26 11:24 AMUCLA Bruins -1.5 (-118)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -125 · Maryland Terrapins +105
Sep 26 11:34 AMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-112)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -140 · Maryland Terrapins +115
Sep 26 11:55 AMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -140 · Maryland Terrapins +115
Sep 26 12:05 PMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-112)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -140 · Maryland Terrapins +115
Sep 26 12:16 PMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -140 · Maryland Terrapins +115
Sep 26 12:37 PMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-112)56.5 (-105)UCLA Bruins -140 · Maryland Terrapins +115
Sep 26 12:47 PMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-112)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -140 · Maryland Terrapins +115
Sep 26 12:57 PMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)UCLA Bruins -140 · Maryland Terrapins +115
Sep 26 1:07 PMUCLA Bruins -3 (-108)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -145 · Maryland Terrapins +120
CLOSESep 26 1:17 PMUCLA Bruins -2.5 (-118)56.5 (-108)UCLA Bruins -145 · Maryland Terrapins +120

The read

Gray skies and a wet north wind over SECU Stadium for Maryland's Big Ten opener, with UCLA making its first trip to College Park since 1955.

The forecast shapes this one: a 60% chance of rain after 1 p.m. and gusts up to 34 mph. That weather asks both teams to run the ball, and only one of them can. UCLA averages 286.7 rushing yards a game behind a line that gets stuffed on 7.6% of carries. Wayne Knight has 345 yards and 8 touchdowns at 8.8 a carry, including 177 against Purdue, and Anthony Woods gives the Bruins a second back producing at a similar clip.

Maryland's ground game was thin before Thursday's report. Its line gets stuffed on 17.9% of carries, Iverson Howard sits at 3.9 a carry, and against Virginia Tech the Terps ran 21 times for 64 yards. Now Harry Dalton III, second on the team in rushing touchdowns, is out along with two more backs, leaving Howard and freshmen. That makes Malik Washington the entire offense in a rainstorm.

Washington has been excellent: 72.2% completions, 892 yards, 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions. UCLA's pass defense is the real risk on this ticket. It ranks 118th of 138 in explosiveness allowed, Bob Chesney called its problems against Purdue "certainly alarming," and three defensive backs are out. The Bruins also haven't played anyone in the SP+ top 50. I'm accepting those risks. UCLA has forced 7 turnovers, 4 of them interceptions, and 40-plus throws into a gusting, wet wind will test Maryland's clean turnover sheet.

Maryland's front is the best argument for the home side. It held Virginia Tech to 131 yards on 36 carries. It plays today without a defensive lineman, a linebacker and a cornerback who were ruled out this week. That same defense let Virginia Tech build a three-touchdown lead entering the fourth quarter, and it ranks 132nd in points allowed per scoring opportunity.

SP+ calls these teams close, 9 to 7.9. The weather and the running back room break the tie. I'll pay the extra juice on the moneyline so a one-point Bruins win still cashes.

Injuries noted

UCLA Bruins: Tao Johnson (out) — 247Sports (UCLA) and SI report Johnson, a starting defensive back, is out for a third consecutive game with an upper-body injury from Week 1 vs. Cal.; Mikey Matthews (out for season) — SI's Sept. 24, 2026 UCLA Week 4 injury report states Matthews (WR) is out for the season after foot surgery.; Jonah Smith (out) — Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (WR).; Joshua Dixon (out) — Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (DB).; Jamier Johnson (out) — Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (DB).; Sam Yoon (out) — Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (OL).; Josh Phifer (questionable) — TE questionable per SI/247Sports reports; has missed the previous two contests.; Aidan Mizell (questionable) — WR listed questionable with recurring injury issues per SI's Sept. 24, 2026 report.; Mack Indestad (questionable) — Backup offensive lineman listed questionable per SI/247Sports reports.; Jhase McMillan (probable) — Backup cornerback listed probable per SI/247Sports reports.

Maryland Terrapins: Harry Dalton III (out) — RB out per Inside the Black and Gold's Maryland inactives report; third on team in yards, second in touchdowns.; Preston Howard (out) — TE listed out for the UCLA game per Inside the Black and Gold report.; DeJuan Williams (out) — RB remains out after undergoing surgery, per Inside the Black and Gold's inactives report.; Zahir Mathis (out) — LB listed out per Maryland's inactives report.; Dontay Joyner (out) — CB listed out per Maryland's inactives report.; Josiah Teasley (out) — WR listed out per Maryland's inactives report.; Delmar White (out) — DL listed out per Maryland's inactives report.; Terrez Worthy (out) — RB listed out per Maryland's inactives report.; Teagan Cox (doubtful) — Interior offensive lineman listed doubtful per Maryland's inactives report.; Travares Daniels II (questionable) — LB listed questionable per Maryland's inactives report.; DD Holmes (questionable) — LB listed questionable per Maryland's inactives report.; Jordan Scruggs (questionable) — DB listed questionable per Maryland's inactives report.; Cardell Williams (questionable) — Backup QB listed questionable on Maryland's injury/inactives report ahead of the UCLA game; Malik Washington remains the confirmed starter.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

TRENCHES

  • UCLA: 286.7 rushing yards per game to MD's 184.7

    102 YPG

    UCLA is running for 286.7 a game over three games, roughly double last season's 139.6, and MD is up to 184.7 from 104.3. Both teams are far above their baselines, which points to soft early schedules on both sides. The ground gap is real for now, but expect both numbers to fall once conference play tightens up.

TURNOVERS

  • UCLA: 2.33 takeaways per game to MD's 1.33

    1 TO

    UCLA has forced 2.33 turnovers a game over 3 games, and Maryland has forced 1.33. Turnovers bounce around from week to week, so three games of them say little about who a defense is. A one-turnover gap is small enough that it shouldn't move much of your view on this game.

MISMATCH

  • UCLA: 286.7 rush yards a game to MD's 184.7

    286.7 VS 184.7

    UCLA is running for 286.7 yards a game after 139.6 last season, and Maryland is at 184.7 after 104.3. Both teams have run far better over three games than last season, so this is two ground games colliding. UCLA's jump is bigger and the most likely to come back down. Expect a game where both sides lean on the run, which tends to keep the clock moving.

COVERAGE

  • MD: 181.7 passing yards allowed per game to UCLA's 253.7

    72 YPG

    Maryland is allowing 181.7 passing yards a game, and UCLA is giving up 253.7, both over three games. That 72-yard gap favors Maryland, but three games can reflect who threw against them as much as the coverage itself, and the opponents are not listed. For this game, UCLA's secondary is the softer spot, so Maryland's passing game is the side to think about when sizing up yardage or scoring.

REPLACEMENT

  • Mikey Matthews (WR) is out for the season for UCLA

    OUT FOR SEASON

    SI's Sept. 24, 2026 UCLA Week 4 injury report states Matthews (WR) is out for the season after foot surgery. UCLA Week 4 Injury Report: Latest Updates, Status for Maryland (2026-09-24)

  • Terrez Worthy (RB) is out for MD

    OUT

    RB listed out per Maryland's inactives report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • Delmar White (DL) is out for MD

    OUT

    DL listed out per Maryland's inactives report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • Josiah Teasley (WR) is out for MD

    OUT

    WR listed out per Maryland's inactives report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • Dontay Joyner (DB) is out for MD

    OUT

    CB listed out per Maryland's inactives report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • Zahir Mathis (LB) is out for MD

    OUT

    LB listed out per Maryland's inactives report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • DeJuan Williams (RB) is out for MD

    OUT

    RB remains out after undergoing surgery, per Inside the Black and Gold's inactives report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • Preston Howard (TE) is out for MD

    OUT

    TE listed out for the UCLA game per Inside the Black and Gold report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • Harry Dalton III (RB) is out for MD

    OUT

    RB out per Inside the Black and Gold's Maryland inactives report; third on team in yards, second in touchdowns. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

  • Sam Yoon (OL) is out for UCLA

    OUT

    Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (OL). UCLA Week 4 Injury Report: Latest Updates, Status for Maryland (2026-09-24)

  • Jamier Johnson (DB) is out for UCLA

    OUT

    Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (DB). UCLA Week 4 Injury Report: Latest Updates, Status for Maryland (2026-09-24)

  • Joshua Dixon (DB) is out for UCLA

    OUT

    Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (DB). UCLA Week 4 Injury Report: Latest Updates, Status for Maryland (2026-09-24)

  • Jonah Smith (WR) is out for UCLA

    OUT

    Listed out on UCLA's Sept. 24, 2026 injury report (WR). UCLA Week 4 Injury Report: Latest Updates, Status for Maryland (2026-09-24)

  • Tao Johnson (DB) is out for UCLA

    OUT

    247Sports (UCLA) and SI report Johnson, a starting defensive back, is out for a third consecutive game with an upper-body injury from Week 1 vs. Cal. UCLA Week 4 Injury Report: Latest Updates, Status for Maryland (2026-09-24)

  • Teagan Cox (OL) is doubtful for MD

    DOUBTFUL

    Interior offensive lineman listed doubtful per Maryland's inactives report. RB Harry Dalton, TE Preston Howard among Maryland's inactives for B1G opener vs. UCLA (2026-09-24)

SITUATIONAL

  • MD: 330 team passing yards per game to UCLA's 203.7

    126.3 YPG

    MD is passing for 330 a game over three games, up from 255.7 last season, while UCLA at 203.7 is modestly above last year's 180.3. Pair this with UCLA's heavy run game and the identities are clear: MD throws, UCLA runs. Whichever side controls possession decides which style wins out, and MD's passing number is the one more likely to come down.

  • MD: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to UCLA's 0%

    50 PP

    UCLA is 0% on fourth down through three games, Maryland is 50%. Fourth-down tries are a handful of snaps, so three games says very little, and UCLA converted 48.4% last season. Maryland's 50% is also up from 36% a year ago. Expect both numbers to drift, and read this more for how aggressive each coach is than for any real edge.

  • MD: 57 penalty yards per game to UCLA's 94.3

    37.3 YDS

    UCLA is at 94.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; MD is at 57 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season UCLA was at 65.5 over 12 games and MD at 54.6 over 12 games.

  • MD: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to UCLA's 0.33

    1.67 ATT/G

    UCLA is at 0.33 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; MD is at 2 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season UCLA was at 2.58 over 12 games and MD at 2.08 over 12 games.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    MALIK WASHINGTONPASSING YARDS UNDER 288.5
    NCAAFMaryland· -115

    Malik Washington
    Passing Yards under 288.5

    -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 142

    Maryland

    This number is priced for a dry afternoon, and the forecast doesn't show one. There's a 60% chance of rain after 1 p.m. with a north wind gusting to 34 mph, and 288.5 sits almost exactly on Malik Washington's season pace of roughly 297 yards a game. That pace came in clean conditions.

    Washington has been sharp: 83 of 115 for 892 yards, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions. Most of that production came on timing and accuracy, and those are the first things a gusting, wet wind takes away. Deep balls hang, outs sail, and wet hands turn completions into drops. Even if he throws 40-plus times because Maryland can't run, a completion rate that slips from 72% toward the low 60s takes a big bite out of his total.

    The game flow helps too. UCLA runs for 286.7 yards a game, and in this weather Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods should keep the clock moving and cut down Maryland's possessions. Fewer drives means fewer chances for Washington to pile up yards.

    The risk is real. UCLA ranks 118th in explosiveness allowed and is missing three defensive backs, so one blown coverage to Chris Durr Jr. could cover a big share of this line on a single play. Maryland may also have to throw on nearly every down late. I'm still betting on the conditions. A quarterback who needs about 290 yards in a wind-driven rain has to be nearly perfect, and I'll take the under at -115.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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