It's Louisville's 100th homecoming on a mild, overcast Halloween afternoon. Mark Clayton's jersey goes up, and a rested Louisville team comes off its bye. Stanford flies in about 1,970 miles on a two-game win streak, and the books want Louisville by more than three touchdowns. I'll take the points. Louisville doesn't bury FBS teams. Its margins against them are -3, +10, -3, -3, +24 and +8. Only the Florida State game would have cleared this number, and Louisville trailed that one 0-14. The defense is the reason. Louisville has allowed at least 20 points to every FBS opponent and nearly 30 a game. It gave up 339 passing yards to Syracuse, 373 to NC State and 336 to Ole Miss. To cover, Louisville likely needs 40-plus, and it has done that twice in six FBS games. It's also playing without its leading receiver, Lawayne McCoy. He averages 20.5 yards a catch and has 10 of Louisville's 32 completions of 20-plus yards. Louisville is also sloppy. It has nine or more penalties in four of seven games and a missed PAT in each of its three FBS wins. Stanford's offense has woken up. Davis Warren threw for 303 yards and four touchdowns without a turnover against NC State. Micah Ford has run for 179 and 150 yards the last two weeks. At home, Stanford has scored 31 or more against every FBS defense except Miami's. Louisville also plays Georgia Tech in seven days, while Stanford gets a bye. With a big fourth-quarter lead, Louisville has every reason to rest Lincoln Kienholz. The risk is real. Stanford has been outscored 17-150 on the road, and every one of its losses has been by 28 or more. Its defense is missing three corners and Matt Rose, and it has to stop Isaac Brown, who has touchdown runs of 97, 68 and 70 in his last three games. But those road beatings came against Duke, Wake Forest and Notre Dame, who are a combined 17-4, and Louisville lost at home to that same Wake team. The teams' common opponents point both ways, and the fair number is just under this one. Stanford +22.5 is a lean, not a big bet.
It's Louisville's 100th homecoming on a mild, overcast Halloween afternoon. Mark Clayton's jersey goes up, and a rested Louisville team comes off its bye. Stanford flies in about 1,970 miles on a two-game win streak, and the books want Louisville by more than three touchdowns. I'll take the points.
Louisville doesn't bury FBS teams. Its margins against them are -3, +10, -3, -3, +24 and +8. Only the Florida State game would have cleared this number, and Louisville trailed that one 0-14. The defense is the reason. Louisville has allowed at least 20 points to every FBS opponent and nearly 30 a game. It gave up 339 passing yards to Syracuse, 373 to NC State and 336 to Ole Miss. To cover, Louisville likely needs 40-plus, and it has done that twice in six FBS games.
It's also playing without its leading receiver, Lawayne McCoy. He averages 20.5 yards a catch and has 10 of Louisville's 32 completions of 20-plus yards. Louisville is also sloppy. It has nine or more penalties in four of seven games and a missed PAT in each of its three FBS wins.
Stanford's offense has woken up. Davis Warren threw for 303 yards and four touchdowns without a turnover against NC State. Micah Ford has run for 179 and 150 yards the last two weeks. At home, Stanford has scored 31 or more against every FBS defense except Miami's. Louisville also plays Georgia Tech in seven days, while Stanford gets a bye. With a big fourth-quarter lead, Louisville has every reason to rest Lincoln Kienholz.
The risk is real. Stanford has been outscored 17-150 on the road, and every one of its losses has been by 28 or more. Its defense is missing three corners and Matt Rose, and it has to stop Isaac Brown, who has touchdown runs of 97, 68 and 70 in his last three games. But those road beatings came against Duke, Wake Forest and Notre Dame, who are a combined 17-4, and Louisville lost at home to that same Wake team. The teams' common opponents point both ways, and the fair number is just under this one. Stanford +22.5 is a lean, not a big bet.
Stanford +22.5