NC State Wolfpack at Stanford Cardinal

Injuries noted

NC State Wolfpack: Jayden "Duke" Scott (out) — RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Joshisa "Jojo" Trader (out) — WR #2 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Tristan Teasdell (out) — S #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Vander Ploog (out) — TE #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Isaiah Crowell (out) — NCK #8 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; AJ Richardson (out) — ILB #15 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Dylan McCoy (out) — RB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Rylan Vann (out) — OL #55 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Yousef Mugharbil (out) — OL #71 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Spike Sowells Jr. (out) — OL #72 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Kamen Smith (out) — OT #79 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Stephen Brown (out) — TE #84 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ian Flynt (out) — TE #87 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Nick Konieczynski (out) — K #91 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

Stanford Cardinal: Brandon Nicholson (out) — CB #9 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Micah Ford (probable) — RB #20 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Zaiden McDonald (out) — DB #22 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Lonnie McAllister III (out) — NB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Breylan Thompson (out) — CB #27 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Matt Rose (out) — ILB #35 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Lucas Shanafelt (out) — OLB #41 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Aidan Kilstrom (out) — OL #52 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Nathan Mejia (out) — OL #53 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Preston Jernegan (out) — ILB #54 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Brendan Delaney (out) — DL #58 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Reiman Zebert (out) — TE #83 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Peyton Warford (out) — LS #93 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Davis Warren is STAN's projected starter

  6.97 Y/A

  Davis Warren is STAN's projected starting quarterback. In his October 19 Stanford-game press conference, Dave Doeren discussed Warren as the opposing quarterback and described his passing role. This supports a projection, not an explicit game-specific starter confirmation. 2026 line: 1630 passing yards, 60.3% completions, 6.97 yards per attempt, 7-2 TD-INT over 7 games.

• CJ Bailey is NCSU's confirmed starter

  7.90 Y/A

  CJ Bailey is NCSU's confirmed starting quarterback. October 21 reporting reproduces NC State's Stanford-game depth chart, explicitly listing Bailey as starter and Will Wilson as backup. 2026 line: 1494 passing yards, 66.7% completions, 7.90 yards per attempt, 9-4 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

• NCSU: 133.5 rushing yards allowed per game to STAN's 196.7

  63.2 YPG

  NC State has held opponents to 133.5 rushing yards a game across six games, while Stanford has given up 196.7 on the ground over seven. The sheet has no opponent list or last season's number, so we can't say how much schedule shaped either figure. Seven games is enough to call Stanford's run defense a real soft spot. NC State's ground game should get its chances here, which matters if you're looking at how this game might flow.

PACE & SCRIPT

• NCSU: 33 points per game to STAN's 18.3

  14.7 PPG

  NC State is putting up 33 a game through six games, up from 30.2 last season, while Stanford sits at 18.3, close to its 18.8 from last year. Stanford's number has barely moved across two seasons, so its offense looks like what it is. NC State's jump is a six-game sample, but it builds on a strong base. On the road, the question for a bettor is whether Stanford can keep pace if NC State scores near its usual rate, or needs the game slow and short.

• NCSU: 27.7 points allowed per game to STAN's 36.6

  8.9 PPG

  NCSU is at 27.7 points allowed per game over 6 games; STAN is at 36.6 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 22. Last season NCSU was at 27.2 over 13 games and STAN at 29.2 over 12 games.

• NCSU: 32:41 time of possession per game to STAN's 27:44

  4:57 TOP

  NCSU is at 32:41 time of possession per game over 6 games; STAN is at 27:44 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 22. Last season NCSU was at 29:57 over 13 games and STAN at 29:49 over 12 games.

TURNOVERS

• STAN: 0.86 turnovers committed per game to NCSU's 1.5

  0.64 TO

  NCSU is at 1.5 turnovers committed per game over 6 games; STAN is at 0.86 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 22. Last season NCSU was at 1 over 13 games and STAN at 1.42 over 12 games.

• NCSU: 1.33 takeaways per game to STAN's 0.71

  0.62 TO

  NC State forces 1.33 takeaways a game over six games, and Stanford forces 0.71 over seven. Takeaways swing more from week to week than other defensive stats, so a gap this size can shrink fast. NC State's edge leans its way, but turnovers are a thin thing to build a view on in a single game.

MISMATCH

• NCSU: 173.5 rush yards a game to STAN's 105.6

  173.5 VS 105.6

  NC State has run for 173.5 yards a game through 6 games, while Stanford manages 105.6 over 7, so the Wolfpack lean on the ground far more. Both teams are up from last season, NC State from 146.5 and Stanford from 84.5, which makes the gap look like who these teams are. Stanford's offense struggles to keep pace if this turns into a rushing game. For a bettor, the read is game flow: an NC State team that can stay on the ground tends to shorten the game and control the clock.

COVERAGE

• NCSU: 34.7% third downs allowed to STAN's 47.3%

  12.6 PP

  NC State lets opponents convert 34.7% of third downs over six games, and Stanford allows 47.3% over seven. Nearly half of third downs converting against Stanford means drives keep going, which fits with its soft run defense. Without opponent detail the exact strength of either unit is unclear, but the gap is wide over a decent sample. Expect NC State to stay on schedule and sustain drives on the road.

REPLACEMENT

• Jayden "Duke" Scott (RB) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Tristan Teasdell (S) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  S #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Vander Ploog (TE) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  TE #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Isaiah Crowell (CB) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  NCK #8 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• AJ Richardson (LB) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  ILB #15 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Dylan McCoy (RB) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  RB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Rylan Vann (OL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  OL #55 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Yousef Mugharbil (OL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  OL #71 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Spike Sowells Jr. (OL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  OL #72 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Kamen Smith (OT) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  OT #79 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Stephen Brown (TE) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  TE #84 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Ian Flynt (TE) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  TE #87 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Nick Konieczynski (PK) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  K #91 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Brandon Nicholson (CB) is out for STAN

  OUT

  CB #9 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Zaiden McDonald (DB) is out for STAN

  OUT

  DB #22 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Lonnie McAllister III (DB) is out for STAN

  OUT

  NB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Breylan Thompson (CB) is out for STAN

  OUT

  CB #27 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Matt Rose (LB) is out for STAN

  OUT

  ILB #35 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Lucas Shanafelt (LB) is out for STAN

  OUT

  OLB #41 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Aidan Kilstrom (OL) is out for STAN

  OUT

  OL #52 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Nathan Mejia (OL) is out for STAN

  OUT

  OL #53 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Preston Jernegan (LB) is out for STAN

  OUT

  ILB #54 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Brendan Delaney (DL) is out for STAN

  OUT

  DL #58 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Reiman Zebert (TE) is out for STAN

  OUT

  TE #83 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

• Peyton Warford (LS) is out for STAN

  OUT

  LS #93 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-22 23:00:00 ET) (2026-10-22)

SITUATIONAL

• NCSU has 7 more days of rest

  13d vs 6d

  NC State gets almost two full weeks to prepare for this trip, coming off a bye with 13 days of rest, while Stanford is on a normal 6-day week. The extra time usually means healthier legs and a cleaner game plan, and a coaching staff can install wrinkles that a team on a regular week has no room for. Stanford still has home field, and an off week can leave a team a step slow early. The edge is in preparation more than anything else, so it shows up most in the first quarter and in scripted opening drives.

• NCSU: 50.6% third-down conversion rate to STAN's 33.3%

  17.2 PP

  NC State converts 50.6% of third downs over six games, a big jump from 41.2% last season. Stanford is at 33.3% over seven games, down from 37.7%. Third-down rates swing a lot over six or seven games, so NC State's number is more likely to drift back toward last season's than stay near half. The gap in sustaining drives still favors NC State, but bettors should expect it to narrow rather than price it in at full strength.

• NCSU: 22.2 first downs per game to STAN's 17.7

  4.5 FD

  NCSU is at 22.2 first downs per game over 6 games; STAN is at 17.7 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 22. Last season NCSU was at 20.4 over 13 games and STAN at 17.4 over 12 games.

TEAM RECORD

• ACC game: NCSU 1-2, STAN 1-3 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the ACC. NCSU is 1-2 against it, STAN is 1-3. 2026 standings through 2026-10-23.

AFTER GARY

• STAN +7.5 → +7.5

  GARY +0.45PP

  Gary's number was 7.5; the same book now shows 7.5.