ESPN College GameDay is in Bloomington for Indiana's homecoming, and the Hoosiers are laying 20.5 to a Minnesota team that needs one more win for a bowl. It's dry and overcast at kickoff, so the real question is whether Indiana's offense looks like September or October. October hasn't been pretty. Indiana's Big Ten margins: +7 in overtime at Michigan (6-6 after regulation), -4 vs Ohio State, +3 at Nebraska, +6 vs Northwestern. The only blowout came against a 2-5 Rutgers team. The Hoosiers scored 20, 15 and 13 the last three weeks, and outside of overtime they scored touchdowns on just 2 of 6 red-zone trips. The run game that piled up 339 yards on Rutgers managed 72, 84 and 134 against real fronts. Josh Hoover has been throwing on a hurt arm since the Ohio State game and went 8-of-18 for 81 yards at Michigan. Cignetti says Hoover is "not 100 percent" but expects "better this week." Probable isn't the same as healthy, and three touchdowns is a lot to lay on that. Minnesota plays the kind of game that eats a big number: 13-10 over Iowa, 20-14 over Michigan, 27-24 at Washington, with 37:36 of possession against Michigan. The defense took the ball away 4 times vs Iowa and 3 vs Michigan. The common opponent helps too. Minnesota beat Michigan by 6 with Bryce Underwood starting, while Indiana needed overtime to win by 7 with Tommy Carr under center. The risk is real. Minnesota runs for about 3 yards a carry against FBS teams, is 18-of-68 on third down, and is starting a reshuffled interior line against a defense with 21 sacks in five Big Ten games. Drake Lindsey has thrown an interception in five straight. Both Minnesota losses were blowouts, by 25 to Mississippi State and 28 at Purdue, after the Gophers fell behind and had to throw. If Hoover's arm is back, Becker and Marsh can blow this open fast. Still, Indiana hasn't won by this much against anyone but Rutgers since September. I'll take the points in a slow, low-scoring game, but only as a small play.
ESPN College GameDay is in Bloomington for Indiana's homecoming, and the Hoosiers are laying 20.5 to a Minnesota team that needs one more win for a bowl. It's dry and overcast at kickoff, so the real question is whether Indiana's offense looks like September or October.
October hasn't been pretty. Indiana's Big Ten margins: +7 in overtime at Michigan (6-6 after regulation), -4 vs Ohio State, +3 at Nebraska, +6 vs Northwestern. The only blowout came against a 2-5 Rutgers team. The Hoosiers scored 20, 15 and 13 the last three weeks, and outside of overtime they scored touchdowns on just 2 of 6 red-zone trips. The run game that piled up 339 yards on Rutgers managed 72, 84 and 134 against real fronts. Josh Hoover has been throwing on a hurt arm since the Ohio State game and went 8-of-18 for 81 yards at Michigan. Cignetti says Hoover is "not 100 percent" but expects "better this week." Probable isn't the same as healthy, and three touchdowns is a lot to lay on that.
Minnesota plays the kind of game that eats a big number: 13-10 over Iowa, 20-14 over Michigan, 27-24 at Washington, with 37:36 of possession against Michigan. The defense took the ball away 4 times vs Iowa and 3 vs Michigan. The common opponent helps too. Minnesota beat Michigan by 6 with Bryce Underwood starting, while Indiana needed overtime to win by 7 with Tommy Carr under center.
The risk is real. Minnesota runs for about 3 yards a carry against FBS teams, is 18-of-68 on third down, and is starting a reshuffled interior line against a defense with 21 sacks in five Big Ten games. Drake Lindsey has thrown an interception in five straight. Both Minnesota losses were blowouts, by 25 to Mississippi State and 28 at Purdue, after the Gophers fell behind and had to throw. If Hoover's arm is back, Becker and Marsh can blow this open fast.
Still, Indiana hasn't won by this much against anyone but Rutgers since September. I'll take the points in a slow, low-scoring game, but only as a small play.
Minnesota +20.5