Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies

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• GARY'S PICK

  DEMOND WILLIAMS JR.PASSING TOUCHDOWNS UNDER 1.5

  NCAAFWashington· +115

  LOST · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  I am on Minnesota plus the points because I think this is a grind, and the cleanest way to express that is to fade Washington's passing scores. The headline number for Demond Williams Jr. is five touchdown passes through three games, but pull that apart and the shape changes. Four of them came against Eastern Washington, an FCS opponent. Against the only live bodies he has seen, he threw zero against Utah State on 41 attempts and one against Washington State. So against actual FBS competition he is sitting at half a passing touchdown a game, and I am being asked to take under 1.5 at plus money. The matchup runs the same direction. Washington's offense ranks 125th nationally on passing downs, 98th in points per scoring opportunity and 109th in explosiveness. That is an offense that moves the ball between the twenties and then stalls, and the red-zone finishing number is the part that matters here, because touchdown passes are a red-zone and scoring-opportunity stat more than a yardage stat. Minnesota is 29th in explosiveness allowed, which is exactly the profile that takes away the chunk play a team needs to convert a drive into six instead of three. The Gophers bend and then tighten near the goal line. There is also a game-script piece. Washington's defense is the best unit on the field and it is a takeaway machine, seven forced turnovers and a plus-six margin. Short fields from turnovers tend to produce rushing scores and easy finishes rather than long touchdown throws, and Demond is a runner who takes his own goal-line carries, which siphons passing scores away from this exact market. The one thing that could beat me is Washington throwing early and often while Minnesota sits back, but their offense has not shown the downfield punch to punish that, and the total has been pinned at 45.5 all week for a reason. At plus money I need this to land a bit under half the time on the raw number alone, and the FBS-only split, the opponent-adjusted matchup and the low-scoring script all push me past that. Under 1.5 passing touchdowns.

  ×

  Demond Williams Jr.
  Passing Touchdowns under 1.5

  +115 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

  Washington

  Read Gary’s Take

  I am on Minnesota plus the points because I think this is a grind, and the cleanest way to express that is to fade Washington's passing scores. The headline number for Demond Williams Jr. is five touchdown passes through three games, but pull that apart and the shape changes. Four of them came against Eastern Washington, an FCS opponent. Against the only live bodies he has seen, he threw zero against Utah State on 41 attempts and one against Washington State. So against actual FBS competition he is sitting at half a passing touchdown a game, and I am being asked to take under 1.5 at plus money.

  The matchup runs the same direction. Washington's offense ranks 125th nationally on passing downs, 98th in points per scoring opportunity and 109th in explosiveness. That is an offense that moves the ball between the twenties and then stalls, and the red-zone finishing number is the part that matters here, because touchdown passes are a red-zone and scoring-opportunity stat more than a yardage stat. Minnesota is 29th in explosiveness allowed, which is exactly the profile that takes away the chunk play a team needs to convert a drive into six instead of three. The Gophers bend and then tighten near the goal line.

  There is also a game-script piece. Washington's defense is the best unit on the field and it is a takeaway machine, seven forced turnovers and a plus-six margin. Short fields from turnovers tend to produce rushing scores and easy finishes rather than long touchdown throws, and Demond is a runner who takes his own goal-line carries, which siphons passing scores away from this exact market. The one thing that could beat me is Washington throwing early and often while Minnesota sits back, but their offense has not shown the downfield punch to punish that, and the total has been pinned at 45.5 all week for a reason.

  At plus money I need this to land a bit under half the time on the raw number alone, and the FBS-only split, the opponent-adjusted matchup and the low-scoring script all push me past that. Under 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.