Homecoming at the Rose Bowl, baby-blue throwbacks, and an unbeaten UCLA team with a former third-stringer at quarterback hosting a 2-5 Michigan State team that's likely down to its own third. The stories write themselves. The number is the real question. Start with MSU's quarterback, because it matters less than it looks. Thamel reports Alessio Milivojevic isn't expected to play and Cam Fancher is out, so freshman Kayd Coffman likely makes a first start. But MSU was already near its floor against good defenses with the starter: 3 points at Wisconsin, 10 at Notre Dame, 13 against Nebraska. The real cost is turnovers and short fields. UCLA has picked off a pass in every game but Wisconsin, including four at Maryland with two returned for scores. UCLA's 6-0 is padded. The 17-15 win at Oregon needed seven takeaways, five of them fumble recoveries, and that's luck I won't pay for. The play-to-play defense is real, though. Wisconsin went 6-of-16 for 66 yards through the air, and Oregon and Maryland went 1-of-12 and 1-of-15 on third down. The risk on the UCLA side is Ty Dieffenbach, who opened the year third on the depth chart. Against Wisconsin's top-25 defense the offense moved: 264 passing yards and 13-of-20 on third down. It scored only 17 because of two interceptions, 0-of-2 on fourth down and 78 penalty yards. That reads as one bad finishing day, not an identity. The ground game tilts to UCLA. Wayne Knight has 571 yards and 11 touchdowns, and MSU gave up 228 rushing yards to Wisconsin. MSU's own run game has Cam Edwards out for the season, Jaziun Patterson questionable, and a line that allowed six sacks to Nebraska. A freshman gets no help there. What I'm ignoring: homecoming, Pat Fitzgerald's frustration, front-office news, the weather, and the Wisconsin common opponent, which stacks two games of noise. MSU's missing corners and linebackers were already out against Northwestern, so they're baked into the last result. I have the fair margin right around 16.5, a hair on UCLA's side. Small stake. If Milivojevic is active at warmups, I'm off it.
Homecoming at the Rose Bowl, baby-blue throwbacks, and an unbeaten UCLA team with a former third-stringer at quarterback hosting a 2-5 Michigan State team that's likely down to its own third. The stories write themselves. The number is the real question.
Start with MSU's quarterback, because it matters less than it looks. Thamel reports Alessio Milivojevic isn't expected to play and Cam Fancher is out, so freshman Kayd Coffman likely makes a first start. But MSU was already near its floor against good defenses with the starter: 3 points at Wisconsin, 10 at Notre Dame, 13 against Nebraska. The real cost is turnovers and short fields. UCLA has picked off a pass in every game but Wisconsin, including four at Maryland with two returned for scores.
UCLA's 6-0 is padded. The 17-15 win at Oregon needed seven takeaways, five of them fumble recoveries, and that's luck I won't pay for. The play-to-play defense is real, though. Wisconsin went 6-of-16 for 66 yards through the air, and Oregon and Maryland went 1-of-12 and 1-of-15 on third down.
The risk on the UCLA side is Ty Dieffenbach, who opened the year third on the depth chart. Against Wisconsin's top-25 defense the offense moved: 264 passing yards and 13-of-20 on third down. It scored only 17 because of two interceptions, 0-of-2 on fourth down and 78 penalty yards. That reads as one bad finishing day, not an identity.
The ground game tilts to UCLA. Wayne Knight has 571 yards and 11 touchdowns, and MSU gave up 228 rushing yards to Wisconsin. MSU's own run game has Cam Edwards out for the season, Jaziun Patterson questionable, and a line that allowed six sacks to Nebraska. A freshman gets no help there.
What I'm ignoring: homecoming, Pat Fitzgerald's frustration, front-office news, the weather, and the Wisconsin common opponent, which stacks two games of noise. MSU's missing corners and linebackers were already out against Northwestern, so they're baked into the last result.
I have the fair margin right around 16.5, a hair on UCLA's side. Small stake. If Milivojevic is active at warmups, I'm off it.
UCLA -16.5