No. 1 Miami brings its unbeaten record to Kenan Stadium on a cool, dry Halloween night. Bill Belichick's Tar Heels are still stinging from a 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse, decided on a 2-point pass that held up on replay. I'm laying the 14.5. Start with Darian Mensah. He's completing 81% of his passes at 10.5 yards per attempt, with 22 touchdowns and one interception. Malachi Toney has 27 catches for 348 yards and five scores in the last two games alone. He gets a UNC secondary without corner Tre Miller, likely out for the regular season, and possibly without safety Peyton Waters, who's questionable after missing Syracuse. UNC can't rush Mensah either: seven sacks in its last five FBS games, and one in each of the last two. Over that stretch the run defense has allowed about 4.8 yards a carry, and Syracuse ran for 207 last week. The common opponents say the same thing. Miami won 41-13 at Clemson, where UNC lost 28-20. Miami beat Pitt by 29 at home, while UNC won there by four. Miami has won its six FBS games by about 28 points a game. UNC has 10 giveaways in six FBS games, and Miami has three all season. Here's what keeps it honest. UNC's defense bends without breaking, allowing touchdowns on fewer than half of opponents' red-zone trips. The Tar Heels also play clean, with roughly 30 penalty yards a game to Miami's 72. Miami has given up 295 or more passing yards in four of its five ACC games, so Jordan Shipp and Jelani Thurman can move the ball. Miami gave up a late touchdown to Pitt with the game long decided, and Notre Dame is next on the schedule. Only two FBS teams have stayed within this number against Miami: Florida State and Wake Forest. Their quarterbacks threw for 298 and 312. Billy Edwards Jr. hasn't topped 271 this year. Watch the final injury report, because if Waters sits, this gets stronger. Miami covers.
No. 1 Miami brings its unbeaten record to Kenan Stadium on a cool, dry Halloween night. Bill Belichick's Tar Heels are still stinging from a 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse, decided on a 2-point pass that held up on replay. I'm laying the 14.5.
Start with Darian Mensah. He's completing 81% of his passes at 10.5 yards per attempt, with 22 touchdowns and one interception. Malachi Toney has 27 catches for 348 yards and five scores in the last two games alone. He gets a UNC secondary without corner Tre Miller, likely out for the regular season, and possibly without safety Peyton Waters, who's questionable after missing Syracuse. UNC can't rush Mensah either: seven sacks in its last five FBS games, and one in each of the last two. Over that stretch the run defense has allowed about 4.8 yards a carry, and Syracuse ran for 207 last week.
The common opponents say the same thing. Miami won 41-13 at Clemson, where UNC lost 28-20. Miami beat Pitt by 29 at home, while UNC won there by four. Miami has won its six FBS games by about 28 points a game. UNC has 10 giveaways in six FBS games, and Miami has three all season.
Here's what keeps it honest. UNC's defense bends without breaking, allowing touchdowns on fewer than half of opponents' red-zone trips. The Tar Heels also play clean, with roughly 30 penalty yards a game to Miami's 72. Miami has given up 295 or more passing yards in four of its five ACC games, so Jordan Shipp and Jelani Thurman can move the ball. Miami gave up a late touchdown to Pitt with the game long decided, and Notre Dame is next on the schedule.
Only two FBS teams have stayed within this number against Miami: Florida State and Wake Forest. Their quarterbacks threw for 298 and 312. Billy Edwards Jr. hasn't topped 271 this year. Watch the final injury report, because if Waters sits, this gets stronger. Miami covers.
Miami -14.5