Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes

Injuries noted

Florida State Seminoles: Darryll Desir (probable) — DL #1 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Samuel Singleton Jr. (out) — RB #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Devin Carter (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Karson Hobbs (out) — DB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jamari Howard (out) — DB #18 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Blake Nichelson (out) — LB #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jordan Crutchfield (out) — DB #27 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Izayia Williams (out) — LB #30 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Daylen Green (out) — LB #38 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Noah LaVallee (out) — LB #45 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Paul Bowling (probable) — OL #51 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report

Miami Hurricanes: Joshua Moore (out) — WR #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; CharMar Brown (out) — RB #6 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ja'Boree Antoine (out) — DB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Romanas "OJ" Frederique Jr. (out) — DB #29 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Max Buchanan (out) — OL #66 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Luka Gilbert (out) — TE #88 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Darian Mensah is MIA's projected starter

  10.89 Y/A

  Darian Mensah is MIA's projected starting quarterback. October 15 game preview discusses Mensah leading Miami's passing offense against Florida State; it does not explicitly confirm the game-day starter. 2026 line: 1449 passing yards, 84.2% completions, 10.89 yards per attempt, 15-0 TD-INT over 5 games.

• Ashton Daniels is FSU's projected starter

  8.68 Y/A

  Ashton Daniels is FSU's projected starting quarterback. October 15 matchup preview discusses Daniels as Florida State's dual-threat quarterback entering the Miami game; it does not explicitly confirm the game-day starter. 2026 line: 1320 passing yards, 59.2% completions, 8.68 yards per attempt, 8-7 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

• MIA: 42.6 rushing yards allowed per game to FSU's 165.8

  123.2 YPG

  Miami gives up 42.6 rushing yards a game through 5 games, which means teams have barely moved the ball on the ground against them. Florida State allows 165.8 over 6 games, so the Hurricanes' offense gets the softer front in this one. The sheet has no opponent list, so we can't say how much schedule helped Miami. When one defense shuts the run down and the other leaks it, the line of scrimmage usually decides who controls the clock.

PACE & SCRIPT

• MIA: 49.6 points per game to FSU's 31

  18.6 PPG

  Miami is scoring 49.6 points a game over five games, a big jump from 30.9 last season, while Florida State is at 31 over six, close to its 33 last season. FSU's number looks like what it is. Miami's is a five-game spike that will probably cool against tougher defenses. The gap says Miami is the side controlling the scoreboard, with FSU needing a game well above its own baseline to keep up.

• MIA: 9.8 points allowed per game to FSU's 25.3

  15.5 PPG

  FSU is at 25.3 points allowed per game over 6 games; MIA is at 9.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 16. Last season FSU was at 22 over 12 games and MIA at 14.8 over 16 games.

TURNOVERS

• MIA: 0.4 turnovers committed per game to FSU's 1.33

  0.93 TO

  FSU is at 1.33 turnovers committed per game over 6 games; MIA is at 0.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 16. Last season FSU was at 1.58 over 12 games and MIA at 0.94 over 16 games.

MISMATCH

• MIA: 333.4 pass yards a game to FSU's 222.3

  333.4 VS 222.3

  The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: FSU threw for 222.3 passing yards a game over 6 games; MIA threw for 333.4 passing yards a game over 5 games this season. Last season FSU was at 253.4 over 12 games and MIA at 253.2 over 16 games.

REPLACEMENT

• Samuel Singleton Jr. (RB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  RB #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Devin Carter (WR) is out for FSU

  OUT

  WR #11 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Karson Hobbs (DB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  DB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Jamari Howard (DB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  DB #18 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Blake Nichelson (LB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  LB #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Jordan Crutchfield (DB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  DB #27 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Izayia Williams (LB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  LB #30 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Daylen Green (LB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  LB #38 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Noah LaVallee (LB) is out for FSU

  OUT

  LB #45 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Joshua Moore (WR) is out for MIA

  OUT

  WR #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• CharMar Brown (RB) is out for MIA

  OUT

  RB #6 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Ja'Boree Antoine (DB) is out for MIA

  OUT

  DB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Romanas "OJ" Frederique Jr. (DB) is out for MIA

  OUT

  DB #29 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Max Buchanan (OL) is out for MIA

  OUT

  OL #66 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Luka Gilbert (TE) is out for MIA

  OUT

  TE #88 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

SITUATIONAL

• MIA has 6 more days of rest

  8d vs 14d

  Miami has had two full weeks since its last game, while Florida State comes in on 8 days, so the Hurricanes had extra time to heal and build a plan for this one. FSU's turnaround is close to a normal week, so the edge is about Miami's extra prep more than FSU being rushed. A bye helps most with injuries and scheme wrinkles, so look at Miami's early drives for anything new.

TEAM RECORD

• ACC game: FSU 1-2, MIA 3-0 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  Miami is unbeaten in ACC play at 3-0, while Florida State has dropped two of three league games. In conference, against teams on a similar level, Miami has done what Florida State has not: close out wins. Three games each is a short run, so the gap could narrow as schedules even out. With Miami at home, the league record backs the host, and the question for a bettor is how much of that is already in the price.