Sports picks for Friday, December 26, 2025

Kon Knueppel is in the midst of an elite scoring stretch, averaging 23.0 PPG over his last five games. He has cleared the 16.5-point line in five straight contests, showing remarkably high consistency with floor scores of 19. This production is supported by heavy volume from behind the arc, where he has averaged 4.6 made threes per game during this period. With LaMelo Ball's status uncertain and the Hornets needing perimeter scoring, Knueppel's role is extremely secure, as evidenced by his 34.4 minute average over the last five games. The matchup against Orlando is tough, but his volume and recent efficiency (47.4% FG and 41.9% 3PT on the season) provide a significant cushion over this line.

Jalen Johnson is currently the engine of the Hawks' offense, averaging 23.8 PPG on the season with an elite 30.0 PPG over his last 20 games. With Kristaps Porzingis out and Bam Adebayo doubtful for Miami, Johnson faces a significantly weakened interior defense while maintaining high usage. His recent form includes explosive scoring performances of 36 and 43 points, demonstrating his ability to easily clear this 24.5 line in high-scoring environments. The Heat have transitioned to the fastest-paced team in the NBA this season, which should provide the volume necessary for Johnson to continue his scoring tear. Given his 11 consecutive double-doubles and the massive playmaking load he carries, he is the primary beneficiary in this matchup. A high game total of 245.5+ further supports a high-scoring ceiling for the Hawks' star.

Moussa Diabate is currently the only healthy traditional center for the Hornets with both Ryan Kalkbrenner and Mason Plumlee sidelined. This vacuum in the frontcourt has led to a massive spike in his rebounding production, as he has grabbed 14 and 18 rebounds in his last two games. His playing time has increased to match this need, seeing up to 36 minutes in his most recent outing. While his season average of 7.9 RPG is lower, that number reflects a bench role that no longer exists in Charlotte's current injury-depleted state. Given the lack of competition for boards on his own team and his high motor, Diabate is well-positioned to clear the 11.5 line for the third consecutive game.

Devin Booker's assist line of 7.5 is significantly higher than both his season and recent performance data suggest it should be. While he did have an 11-assist game recently, he has failed to reach 8 assists in four of his last five games, averaging just 5.6 APG during that span. His season average of 6.6 APG is also nearly a full assist below the 7.5 line, providing a solid baseline for an under bet. With Phoenix missing secondary scorers like Grayson Allen, Booker may be forced to look for his own shot more frequently, potentially reducing his playmaking opportunities. Historical context shows Booker has massive scoring potential in New Orleans, which often leads to him being more of a finisher than a facilitator. Both teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back further supports a lower-assist environment due to potential fatigue and reduced offensive sharpness.

Jaren Jackson Jr. enters this game in elite scoring form, averaging 22.6 points per game over his last five outings. He has cleared this 17.5 point line in four of those five games, posting high-end scores of 21, 22, 28, and 31 points. His season average of 17.8 PPG already provides a baseline edge over the current line. Furthermore, he historically thrives in this matchup, having scored 37 points in the most recent meeting between these two teams. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo significantly weakens Milwaukee's interior defense, creating a path for Jackson to dominate the paint. With Ja Morant questionable or likely limited, Jackson remains the undisputed primary scoring option for the Grizzlies. Expect him to comfortably exceed this line in a high-paced environment.

Trae Young is averaging 9.1 APG this season despite being on a strict 27-minute restriction following an MCL sprain. With his restriction now officially lifted and his workload expected to return to 35+ minutes, his assist potential increases dramatically. In his last outing, he played 31 minutes, signaling the ramp-up is complete. The game environment against Miami is ideal, as the Heat now play at the league's fastest pace, leading to more possessions and assist opportunities. Although Young has historically struggled with efficiency against Miami, the increased volume of a high-total game (245.5+) and his role as the primary distributor for a hot Jalen Johnson make this over very attractive. Based on his per-minute production, 35 minutes of play should naturally project Young toward 11-12 assists.

Jaylen Brown is in a prime position to excel against a weary Indiana team playing the second leg of a back-to-back with travel. Brown has a history of dominating this matchup, underscored by his 31-point performance against them just five days ago. The Pacers' defense is already struggling, ranking 22nd in the league, and they will be without their best perimeter defender, Aaron Nesmith. With Boston well-rested and playing at home, Brown's usage and efficiency should remain high. His season average of 29.4 PPG is right on the line, but the favorable matchup and personnel absences for Indiana provide a significant boost for the over. Expect Brown to exploit the lack of defensive resistance and clear this points threshold.

Sandro Mamukelashvili has consistently stayed below this 7.5 rebounding line, failing to record more than 7 rebounds in any of his last five games. His season average of 4.6 RPG provides a significant 2.9-rebound cushion against this line. Even with starting center Jakob Poeltl out , Mamukelashvili's rebounding numbers haven't jumped significantly; he played 30 and 36 minutes in two of those games and still only grabbed 5 and 7 boards respectively. His role in Toronto's offense involves significant perimeter play, evidenced by his 3.0 made threes per game over the last five, which pulls him away from the glass. With the Wizards being the league's worst team, there is also a high blowout risk that could lead to reduced starters' minutes in the 4th quarter. Given the historical and recent data, he is unlikely to secure 8 rebounds in this matchup.

Josh Giddey is in the midst of a career-best stretch, serving as the primary engine for a Chicago Bulls team playing at one of the fastest tempos in the league. His season PRA average of 38.4 provides nearly a 2-point cushion against this 36.5 line, and his recent form is even more impressive with two triple-doubles in his last four games. Giddey has exceeded 40 PRA in three of his last four outings, including a massive 45-PRA performance against Atlanta in his last game. The matchup is favorable as Philadelphia currently ranks in the bottom ten in transition defense, an area where Giddey excels as a playmaker. Furthermore, Giddey is highly motivated, chasing franchise triple-double records and playing for a contract extension. Expect the high game total (239.5) and Giddey's massive usage to carry him well over this composite line.

Saddiq Bey is positioned for a high-usage night with the Pelicans missing key offensive contributors Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones, while Jordan Poole remains questionable. Over his last five games, Bey has stepped up significantly, averaging 17.4 PPG, which is nearly three points higher than tonight's 14.5 line. He has cleared this scoring threshold in three of his last five outings, showing explosive potential with games of 19, 18, and 29 points. His minutes are secure, averaging nearly 30 per game recently, and the game total is set at a high 241.5, suggesting plenty of scoring opportunities. Given the depleted New Orleans roster and his recent scoring surge, Bey is a strong candidate to hit the over. The statistical cushion provided by his recent 17.4 PPG average makes this 14.5 line excellent value.

Kyle Kuzma has seen a significant uptick in his rebounding production since joining the Bucks' primary rotation, averaging 6.8 boards over his last five games. He has cleared this 5.5 rebound line in four of his last five contests, including games with 10 and 7 rebounds. The ongoing absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo leaves a massive void in Milwaukee's rebounding (over 11 RPG), which Kuzma has been active in filling. His minutes are secure, having played at least 28 minutes in each of his last five games. The high game total of 230.5 indicates a high-possession game with plenty of missed shots and rebounding opportunities. Given his recent consistency and the increased frontcourt responsibility, Kuzma is well-positioned to grab at least six boards. Trust his recent trend over his earlier season averages.

Keyonte George has entered an elite scoring tier in December, averaging 26.4 points per game for the month . Over his last five games, he has cleared this 22.5 point line in four instances, posting high-ceiling scores of 24, 27, 34, and 37. His volume has been consistent during this breakout, averaging 28.4 PPG over his last five outings . While Detroit boasts a top-tier defense, Utah's 3rd-ranked pace should ensure a high volume of possessions to sustain his scoring. In a game with a massive 244.5 total, George is the primary beneficiary of Utah's fast-paced offensive environment.

Kawhi Leonard is in an excellent position to exceed his rebounding line of 6.5 tonight. Over his last five games, Leonard is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game, surpassing this specific line in four of those five contests with totals of 8, 12, 8, and 9. A critical situational factor is the absence of starting center Ivica Zubac, who is sidelined for several weeks with an ankle sprain. Without Zubac's massive rebounding presence, Leonard has taken on a significantly larger role on the glass, as evidenced by his 37.8 average minutes over the last five games. Additionally, Portland plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA (102.1 possessions), which will provide more shot attempts and rebounding opportunities than usual. Expect Kawhi to be highly active on the boards in what is projected to be a competitive, high-minutes game for the starters.

Despite being the primary scoring option for a shorthanded Pacers squad, Pascal Siakam faces an uphill battle against an elite Celtics defense. Siakam is averaging 20.1 PPG since joining Indiana, which is notably lower than the 22.5 line set for this contest. The Pacers are playing their second game in 24 hours and had to travel to Boston, a scenario that typically leads to decreased offensive efficiency. Boston's 7th-ranked defense will likely focus its attention on Siakam with multiple key Pacers rotation players ruled out. Without secondary playmakers like Nembhard to facilitate, Siakam's quality of looks will decrease against a well-rested Boston frontcourt. The 2.4-point cushion between his average and the line makes the under a high-probability play.

Immanuel Quickley is in the midst of a significant scoring slump, averaging just 12.4 PPG over his last five games. This is over 3 points lower than his season average of 15.8 PPG and well below the 18.5 prop line. He has failed to clear 18.5 points in five straight games, topping out at 18 in his most recent outing against Miami. While RJ Barrett's absence technically increases usage, Toronto's overall offensive rating has dropped to 20th without him, making the scoring environment more difficult. Additionally, the Wizards allow the most points in the league, but the risk of a blowout (Toronto is an 8.5-point favorite) could limit Quickley's fourth-quarter minutes. With a season baseline and recent form both pointing to a lower total, the under is the statistically superior play.

Tyrese Maxey enters this matchup with a significant statistical edge, as his season average of 31.0 PPG is 2.5 points higher than the current 28.5 line. Maxey's floor is exceptionally high due to his league-leading workload of nearly 40 minutes per game, ensuring he has maximum opportunities to produce. He is in a prime bounce-back spot after a rare poor shooting performance, and the Chicago Bulls' defensive struggles (26th in recent defensive rating) offer the perfect environment for a high-scoring night. With Joel Embiid dealing with a knee hyperextension and listed as questionable, Maxey's usage rate is poised to skyrocket as the focal point of the offense. In a game with a high 239.5 total and a fast pace, Maxey should comfortably reach his season scoring baseline.

Lauri Markkanen enters this matchup averaging 27.8 points per game on the season, which provides a significant 3.3-point cushion against this 24.5 line . He has been highly reliable of late, exceeding this scoring threshold in four of his last five games with totals of 27, 33, 26, and 30. Markkanen notably thrived in the first meeting against Detroit this season, putting up 31 points . While Detroit is a strong defensive team, the high game total of 244.5 suggests a shootout environment that favors Utah's top scoring option. With Walker Kessler out, Markkanen will need to carry a heavy offensive load to keep the Jazz competitive.

Deni Avdija has emerged as the primary engine for the Portland offense amidst a massive backcourt injury crisis. With Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, and Jrue Holiday all sidelined, Avdija has seen his playmaking responsibilities skyrocket. While his season average sits at 6.6 assists, his recent form is much more indicative of his current role; he is averaging 8.2 assists over his last five games. During this stretch, he has recorded at least 8 assists in four out of five games, showing incredible consistency as the team's 'clear #1 option' and primary ball-handler. He is currently playing heavy minutes (38.2 MPG over L5) and the high-pace environment of this Portland team (3rd in NBA) maximizes his opportunities for potential assists. Against a Clippers team missing defensive specialist Derrick Jones Jr., Avdija should continue his run of high-level playmaking.