Daily archive

2025-12-26

The stored Gary board for Fri, Dec 26. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

NBA

Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz

TALE OF THE TAPE Utah Jazz Detroit Pistons Record 10-19 24-6 → Off Rating 113.0 116.2 → Def Rating 120.1 109.1 → Net Rating -7.1 +7.2 → Key Injuries Kessler (OUT) Holland (Q) Gary's Take This matchup features the single biggest structural mismatch in the NBA right now: Detroit's disciplined, fifth-ranked defense against a Utah team that simply cannot get stops. The Jazz have plummeted to the bottom of the defensive efficiency standings since losing Walker Kessler, surrendering nearly 128 points per game over their last five outings. You cannot hide that kind of rim protection void against a team executing as well as the Pistons. Cade Cunningham has Detroit humming with a top-tier offensive rating, but the real story is their defensive identity. While Utah engages in track meets—trying to outscore their defensive problems with Keyonte George and rookie Ace Bailey—Detroit is suffocating opponents, boasting an 11-4 road record that proves their formula travels. Jalen Duren should have absolute freedom in the paint given Utah's depleted frontcourt, and Cunningham's ability to control tempo prevents the chaotic shootout style Utah prefers. The net rating gap here is a staggering 14.3 points per 100 possessions. Even on the road, laying points is the only look when the class disparity is this wide. Utah is 0-4 in their last four, losing by margins that suggest this spread is actually short. Detroit wins big.

Detroit Pistons -9-108

CONF

85%

NBA

Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers

TALE OF THE TAPE Indiana Boston Record 6-24 18-11 → Off Rating 107.2 119.1 → Def Rating 113.3 113.2 → Net Rating -6.1 +5.9 → Key Injuries Haliburton (OUT) Tatum (OUT) Gary's Take Even with both teams missing their franchise faces in Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum, this matchup is a complete mismatch. The Boston Celtics have successfully reinvented themselves around Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, maintaining an elite offensive rating that ranks third in the league. Indiana, conversely, has collapsed without their primary playmaker, plummeting to the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. The math here is simple and brutal. Boston scores nearly 12 more points per 100 possessions than Indiana. While Pascal Siakam is doing his best to keep the Pacers afloat, he lacks the supporting cast to trade baskets with a Celtics team that has five players averaging double figures, led by Brown's 29.4 points per night. Indiana's 0-5 skid highlights a roster that simply cannot generate easy offense, whereas Boston's system generates open looks regardless of who is on the floor. We saw this movie four days ago when Boston controlled the game in a 103-95 win. With that game tape now digested, expect Joe Mazzulla's squad to be even more efficient in attacking Indiana's mediocre defense. The efficiency gap is too wide for home court advantage to bridge. Boston wins this going away.

Celtics -8-106

CONF

80%

NBA

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

TALE OF THE TAPE New Orleans Phoenix Record 8-23 16-13 ← Off Rating 110.7 113.0 ← Def Rating 117.2 113.5 ← Net Rating -6.4 -0.5 ← Key Injuries Jones (OUT) Green (OUT) Gary's Take Don't let the New Orleans Pelicans' recent hot streak fool you—this is a classic "sell high" spot on a bad team facing a structural mismatch. While New Orleans has strung together a few wins, the underlying metrics tell a completely different story. The gap between these teams is massive, with Phoenix boasting a Net Rating nearly six points better per 100 possessions. The market is overreacting to a small sample size of Pelicans success while ignoring the season-long reality of their 25th-ranked defense. The absence of Herbert Jones is the nail in the coffin for New Orleans in this matchup. Jones is the defensive glue for the Pelicans, and without him, they have absolutely no answer for Devin Booker. Phoenix's offense, efficient even without Jalen Green, should feast on a Pelicans unit allowing a defensive rating of 117.2. You simply cannot hide poor perimeter defenders against a scorer of Booker's caliber, and New Orleans lacks the personnel to slow him down. Furthermore, the regression numbers are screaming for a correction. Phoenix has been mathematically "unlucky" relative to their point differential (expected 18 wins vs. actual 16), while New Orleans has overperformed their expected win total. We have a superior team, motivated by playoff positioning, facing a lottery squad missing their best defender. The efficiency gap here suggests a double-digit margin. Lay the points with the better team. Phoenix Suns -5.5.

Phoenix Suns -5.5-114

CONF

78%

NBA

Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic

TALE OF THE TAPE Orlando Charlotte Record 17-13 ← 10-20 Off Rating 113.1 113.7 ← Def Rating 110.5 ← 116.7 Net Rating +2.6 ← -3.0 Key Injuries F. Wagner (OUT) Plumlee (OUT) Suggs (DBTFL) Williams (OUT) Gary's Take Usually, fading the Orlando Magic at the Kia Center is a losing proposition, given their dominant 10-4 home record. However, the injury report has completely altered the complexion of this game. Orlando isn't just missing bodies; they are missing their identity. With Franz Wagner (22.7 PPG) ruled out and defensive pest Jalen Suggs doubtful, the Magic are stripped of their secondary playmaking and their elite point-of-attack defense. This places an unsustainable burden on Paolo Banchero to generate everything against a defense that can now load up entirely on him. On the other side, Charlotte might be thin at center with Mason Plumlee and rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner out, but their offensive engine is fully intact. LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges are all active, giving the Hornets three varied scoring threats that Orlando's depleted backcourt will struggle to contain. Without Suggs to harass Ball, LaMelo should be able to control the tempo and find Miller and Bridges in rhythm. While Charlotte's lack of interior size is a concern against Wendell Carter Jr., the modern NBA game is won on the perimeter, and Charlotte has the distinct advantage there tonight. Lay the points? Absolutely not. This line is pricing Orlando as a fully operational machine, not a team missing two of its three best players. The Hornets have the firepower to keep this within a possession or win outright. Give me the points with Charlotte +5.5.

Charlotte Hornets +5.5-114

CONF

72%

NCAAF

Florida International Panthers @ UTSA Roadrunners

TALE OF THE TAPE UTSA Roadrunners FIU Panthers Record 6-6 ← 4-8 Passing TDs 31 ← 18 Turnovers Lost 7 ← 11 Yards Allowed 4585 ← 4869 Key Injuries D. Martin (OUT) M. Clark (OUT) Gary's Take Bowl games often come down to who is actually on the field, and while both defenses have been ravaged by the portal, the mismatch between UTSA's offense and Florida International's secondary is the deciding factor. The Roadrunners bring a fully intact offensive unit to Dallas, led by quarterback Owen McCown (31 touchdowns), who has established a rhythm with his top targets all season. They face an FIU defense that is structurally broken in the back end. The Panthers are missing three of their five starters in the secondary, including their top cover corner and starting safety. This is a catastrophic loss against an Air Raid-style offense that averages over 240 passing yards per game. McCown protects the football (only 7 interceptions) and should find open throwing lanes all evening against a patchwork defensive backfield that lacks the communication and chemistry to handle tempo. While head coach Jeff Traylor noted his defensive depth is thin, the game location at SMU’s Gerald J. Ford Stadium makes this a de facto home game for UTSA. The environment, combined with a significant quarterback advantage and a specific tactical edge in the passing game, gives the Roadrunners the ceiling to pull away in a high-scoring affair. FIU’s run-heavy approach might keep the clock moving, but they lack the firepower to match UTSA score-for-score if this turns into a track meet. Lay the points with the better quarterback playing effectively at home against a depleted secondary. UTSA -7.

UTSA Roadrunners -7-108

CONF

60%

Player props

NBA · Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic

Kon Knueppel

Kon Knueppel is in the midst of an elite scoring stretch, averaging 23.0 PPG over his last five games. He has cleared the 16.5-point line in five straight contests, showing remarkably high consistency with floor scores of 19.

OVER 16.5 Points-117

· L5 points: 19, 20, 19, 28, 29
· Season avg: 19.4 PPG
· L5 3PM: 5, 5, 4, 6, 3

NBA · Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson is currently the engine of the Hawks' offense, averaging 23.8 PPG on the season with an elite 30.0 PPG over his last 20 games. With Kristaps Porzingis out and Bam Adebayo doubtful for Miami, Johnson faces a significantly weakened interior defense while maintaining high usage.

OVER 24.5 Points-110

· Season avg: 23.8 PPG
· L20 avg: 30.0 PPG
· Recent games: 36 and 43 points

NBA · Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic

Moussa Diabate

Moussa Diabate is currently the only healthy traditional center for the Hornets with both Ryan Kalkbrenner and Mason Plumlee sidelined. This vacuum in the frontcourt has led to a massive spike in his rebounding production, as he has grabbed 14 and 18 rebounds in his last two games.

OVER 11.5 Rebounds-106

· L2 rebounds: 18, 14
· L2 minutes: 36, 28
· Hornets Centers: Kalkbrenner and Plumlee OUT

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

Devin Booker

Devin Booker's assist line of 7.5 is significantly higher than both his season and recent performance data suggest it should be. While he did have an 11-assist game recently, he has failed to reach 8 assists in four of his last five games, averaging just 5.6 APG during that span.

UNDER 7.5 Assists-138

· L5 assists: 11, 5, 2, 7, 3
· Season average: 6.6 APG
· L5 average: 5.6 APG

NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies

Jaren Jackson Jr

Jaren Jackson Jr. enters this game in elite scoring form, averaging 22.6 points per game over his last five outings. He has cleared this 17.5 point line in four of those five games, posting high-end scores of 21, 22, 28, and 31 points.

OVER 17.5 Points-120

· Season avg: 17.8 PPG
· L5 avg: 22.6 PPG
· L5 game scores: 21, 11, 22, 28, 31

NBA · Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young

Trae Young is averaging 9.1 APG this season despite being on a strict 27-minute restriction following an MCL sprain. With his restriction now officially lifted and his workload expected to return to 35+ minutes, his assist potential increases dramatically.

OVER 10.5 Assists+100

· Season avg: 9.1 APG
· Recent minutes: 31 minutes on Tuesday
· Context: Minutes restriction officially lifted

NBA · Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown is in a prime position to excel against a weary Indiana team playing the second leg of a back-to-back with travel. Brown has a history of dominating this matchup, underscored by his 31-point performance against them just five days ago.

OVER 29.5 Points-124

· Season avg: 29.4 PPG
· Recent form: Scored 31 points against the Pacers on Dec 22
· Matchup: Indiana ranks 22nd in defense and is missing top wing defender Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Sandro Mamukelashvili has consistently stayed below this 7.5 rebounding line, failing to record more than 7 rebounds in any of his last five games. His season average of 4.6 RPG provides a significant 2.9-rebound cushion against this line.

UNDER 7.5 Rebounds-137

· Season avg: 4.6 RPG
· L5 rebounds: 6, 5, 5, 7, 7
· Last 5 hit rate: 0/5 over 7.5 line

NBA · Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey is in the midst of a career-best stretch, serving as the primary engine for a Chicago Bulls team playing at one of the fastest tempos in the league. His season PRA average of 38.4 provides nearly a 2-point cushion against this 36.5 line, and his recent form is even more impressive with two triple-doubles in his last four games.

OVER 36.5 Points Rebounds Assists-124

· Season PRA avg: 38.4 (20.0 PTS, 9.3 REB, 9.1 AST)
· L5 PRA avg: 36.6 (17.8 PTS, 8.8 REB, 10.0 AST)
· Recorded 45, 40, and 45 PRA in 3 of his last 4 games

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey is positioned for a high-usage night with the Pelicans missing key offensive contributors Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones, while Jordan Poole remains questionable. Over his last five games, Bey has stepped up significantly, averaging 17.4 PPG, which is nearly three points higher than tonight's 14.5 line.

OVER 14.5 Points-110

· L5 points: 11, 19, 18, 29, 10
· Season average: 14.8 PPG
· L5 average: 17.4 PPG

NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies

Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma has seen a significant uptick in his rebounding production since joining the Bucks' primary rotation, averaging 6.8 boards over his last five games. He has cleared this 5.5 rebound line in four of his last five contests, including games with 10 and 7 rebounds. The ongoing absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo leaves a massive void in Milwaukee's rebounding (over 11 RPG), which Kuzma has been active in filling.

OVER 5.5 Rebounds-128

· L5 rebounding: 7, 10, 7, 6, 4
· L5 avg: 6.8 RPG
· Season avg: 4.9 RPG

NBA · Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz

Keyonte George

Keyonte George has entered an elite scoring tier in December, averaging 26.4 points per game for the month . Over his last five games, he has cleared this 22.5 point line in four instances, posting high-ceiling scores of 24, 27, 34, and 37.

OVER 22.5 Points-110

· L5 points: 24, 20, 27, 34, 37
· December avg: 26.4 PPG
· Pace of play: Jazz 3rd in NBA

NBA · Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers

Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard is in an excellent position to exceed his rebounding line of 6.5 tonight. Over his last five games, Leonard is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game, surpassing this specific line in four of those five contests with totals of 8, 12, 8, and 9.

OVER 6.5 Rebounds-138

· L5 rebounds: 8, 12, 8, 4, 9
· Season avg: 6.2 RPG
· Ivica Zubac OUT - Grade 2 ankle sprain

NBA · Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers

Pascal Siakam

Despite being the primary scoring option for a shorthanded Pacers squad, Pascal Siakam faces an uphill battle against an elite Celtics defense. Siakam is averaging 20.1 PPG since joining Indiana, which is notably lower than the 22.5 line set for this contest.

UNDER 22.5 Points-117

· Season avg: 20.1 PPG
· Line cushion: Prop line (22.5) is 2.4 points above season average
· Fatigue factor: Indiana is on the second night of a back-to-back with travel

NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards

Immanuel Quickley

Immanuel Quickley is in the midst of a significant scoring slump, averaging just 12.4 PPG over his last five games. This is over 3 points lower than his season average of 15.8 PPG and well below the 18.5 prop line.

UNDER 18.5 Points-122

· Season avg: 15.8 PPG
· L5 points: 18, 17, 3, 9, 15
· Last 5 hit rate: 0/5 over 18.5 line

NBA · Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls

Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey enters this matchup with a significant statistical edge, as his season average of 31.0 PPG is 2.5 points higher than the current 28.5 line. Maxey's floor is exceptionally high due to his league-leading workload of nearly 40 minutes per game, ensuring he has maximum opportunities to produce.

OVER 28.5 Points-114

· Season average: 31.0 PPG
· NBA Leader in minutes: 39.8 MPG
· Bulls rank 26th in defensive rating over last 10 games

NBA · Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz

Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen enters this matchup averaging 27.8 points per game on the season, which provides a significant 3.3-point cushion against this 24.5 line . He has been highly reliable of late, exceeding this scoring threshold in four of his last five games with totals of 27, 33, 26, and 30.

OVER 24.5 Points-125

· Season avg: 27.8 PPG
· L5 points: 27, 33, 26, 18, 30
· Previous meeting vs Detroit: 31 points

NBA · Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija has emerged as the primary engine for the Portland offense amidst a massive backcourt injury crisis. With Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, and Jrue Holiday all sidelined, Avdija has seen his playmaking responsibilities skyrocket.

OVER 7.5 Assists-109

· L5 assists: 8, 9, 11, 5, 8
· Season avg: 6.6 APG
· Portland injuries: Lillard, Scoot Henderson, and Jrue Holiday all OUT

Graded results

Games

L
Detroit Pistons -9 -108
NBA · 129-131
W
Celtics -8 -120
NBA · 140-122
W
Phoenix Suns -5.5 -114
NBA · 115-108
W
Charlotte Hornets +5.5 -114
NBA · 120-105
W
UTSA Roadrunners -7 -108
NCAAF · 20-57

Props

W
Deni Avdija · over
Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 9
W
Devin Booker · under
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans · Actual 5
L
Immanuel Quickley · under
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards · Actual 25
L
Jalen Johnson · over
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks · Actual 24
L
Jaren Jackson Jr · over
Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 16
W
Jaylen Brown · over
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers · Actual 30
L
Josh Giddey · over
Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls · Actual 29
W
Kawhi Leonard · over
Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 8
W
Keyonte George · over
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz · Actual 23
L
Kon Knueppel · over
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic · Actual 16
W
Kyle Kuzma · over
Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 8
W
Lauri Markkanen · over
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz · Actual 30
W
Moussa Diabate · over
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic · Actual 13
W
Pascal Siakam · under
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers · Actual 11
L
Saddiq Bey · over
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans · Actual 9
L
Sandro Mamukelashvili · under
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards · Actual 11
L
Trae Young · over
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks · Actual 7
L
Tyrese Maxey · over
Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls · Actual 27